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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:01 am
by jimbob
https://samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraine-win
Discussion about what victory would be - as opposed to denying Russia victory.
And whether Ukraine can win
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:17 am
by EACLucifer
And a good followup thread by Benjamin Tallis
Complete with NAFO/OFAN reference for those in the know.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:22 am
by jimbob
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:26 am
by Martin Y
Thanks for both of those, jimbob and EACL.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:26 am
by EACLucifer
General reminder not to talk about separatists. Even as AFP talks about "Ukraine separatists", Putin is referring to the same troops as Russian.
The occupation of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula, beginning in 2014, was a product of Moscow, not local rebellion.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:32 pm
by Stranger Mouse
As Boris Johnson has a committee meeting tomorrow I wonder if he’ll be called away suddenly to Ukraine
https://twitter.com/davidheniguk/status ... -KnpsLKzaQ
- 54607E04-BBB6-406D-9EB5-0BB976972F9B.jpeg (62.82 KiB) Viewed 1736 times
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:54 pm
by lpm
"The thing is Boris, you have visited quite a few times already..."
https://twitter.com/mrjohnofarrell/stat ... 3385328640
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:50 pm
by EACLucifer
While on the one hand Johnson has absolutely used support for Ukraine to distract from domestic woes, it's resulted in some of the most meaningful military support to a country that has been invaded by genocidal scum. I'm not happy prioritising domestic politics when genocide/diabolical plot to create chaos by literally starving the third world/imperialist invasion are happening.
On the plus side, some of the people who may replace Johnson are pretty hawkish on Russia and China, and Johnson may step up aid further to distract from this - perhaps Zelenskyy can squeeze a few jets or a company of Challengers out of him on his way out?
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 6:51 am
by Woodchopper
In depth look a Russian industrial capacity to replace its losses in Ukraine:
https://ridl.io/one-way-ticket/
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2022 7:16 pm
by Woodchopper
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:46 pm
by jimbob
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:24 am
by Woodchopper
The Iranian government is preparing to send “several hundred” drones, including some equipped with weapons, to Russia at some point in July, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Monday.
[…]
“Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred [unmanned aerial vehicles], including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” Sullivan said. “It’s unclear whether Iran has delivered any of these UAVs to Russia already.”
Iran will train Russian forces to use the drones as early as this month, he added.
“This is just one example of how Russia is looking to countries like Iran for capabilities that … have been used before we got the ceasefire in place in Yemen to attack Saudi Arabia,” Sullivan said.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/1 ... a-00045195
Iran also has a lot of experience in building military technology in spite of international sanctions.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2022 10:46 am
by TopBadger
They certainly seem to have a lot of experience at obtaining sanctioned goods...
I wonder what if anything is also coming to Russia from China.
This conflict has become something of a proxy war for Democracy vs Dictatorship. NATO can't afford to see Ukraine lose.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:03 pm
by EACLucifer
Paul Urey, a British aid worker, died while being held captive by the so-called DNR. They claim "stress" as the cause, but they have a long record of mistreating prisoners, including torture and murder.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:19 pm
by TopBadger
Being reported that Russia and Belarus holding reunification talks, also with ex-pres of Ukraine... announcement expected to be a signed reunification document including all three countries.
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-m ... rtnerships
Whether Belarus' generals are on board with joining Putin's special military operation isn't reported... I'm not sure the citizen's of Belarus are so happy about it. Will they revolt?
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:39 pm
by EACLucifer
After hitting a concert hall and clinic in Vynnytsya and university buildings in Mykolaiv, Russia has now targetted Dnipro. No idea what's been hit yet, but the trend over the last couple of weeks as been attacks on civilian targets. Perhaps not coincidentally, it's attacks on cities that have been major hubs for refugees.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:40 pm
by Martin Y
TopBadger wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:19 pm
Being reported that Russia and Belarus holding reunification talks, also with ex-pres of Ukraine... announcement expected to be a signed reunification document including all three countries.
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-m ... rtnerships
Whether Belarus' generals are on board with joining Putin's special military operation isn't reported... I'm not sure the citizen's of Belarus are so happy about it. Will they revolt?
That's weirdly funny and sad if true. The article hints Russia wants us to see a parallel between Sweden and Finland being driven toward NATO membership and Russia and Belarus being pushed to unify. Like anyone except Belarussians would care if they did.
The notion that they might include Ukraine in this deal is initially hilarious, but If they go ahead then of course the parts of Ukraine they occupy become, in their view, part of their country. And that's a lot less funny, particularly for the Ukrainians who live there.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:41 pm
by EACLucifer
TopBadger wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:19 pm
Being reported that Russia and Belarus holding reunification talks, also with ex-pres of Ukraine... announcement expected to be a signed reunification document including all three countries.
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-m ... rtnerships
Whether Belarus' generals are on board with joining Putin's special military operation isn't reported... I'm not sure the citizen's of Belarus are so happy about it. Will they revolt?
Can't imagine they'd be desperately pleased with being ordered to attack Ukraine. It's likely there would be some pretty substantial unrest at the very minimum.
Also, Russian has used bases in Belarus to operate aviation and to launch missiles, using Belarus's alleged neutrality as a shield (ie Ukraine can't attack for fear of bringing Belarus in as a belligerent), if Russia were to annex Belarus, they'd be right in line for a generous helping of Tochka-Us.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:45 pm
by EACLucifer
Martin Y wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:40 pm
If they go ahead then of course the parts of Ukraine they occupy become, in their view, part of their country. And that's a lot less funny, particularly for the Ukrainians who live there.
They are already doing exactly that in occupied Donbas and Kherson (and, I presume, the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia oblast, but I've not checked) including imposing the ruble and Russian passports, threatening to punish parents if their kids speak Ukrainian at school, and imposing collaborators on local government.
Local government does seem to be quite dangerous for the collaborators, though. Several of them have suffered what look to be industrial accidents of some sort or another involving exploding cars, bursts of machine gun fire and so on. Hazards of the job of being a collaborating traitor, I guess.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:17 pm
by Pishwish
In space related news, the undiplomatic head of Roscosmos (Dimitry Rogozin) has been sacked. Less pleasing
https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/sta ... re9Ngeq7nw are rumours that the Yuzmash rocket factory was targeted, which may indicate Russian acceptance that they will not capture this prestigious asset.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:17 am
by Pishwish
The tweet seems to be gone, possibly the information was not reliable.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:05 pm
by Woodchopper
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:42 am
by Woodchopper
NATO Secretary General makes the case for supporting Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/minna_alander/statu ... ayGiR441EA
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:14 am
by IvanV
Pishwish wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:17 pm
In space related news, the undiplomatic head of Roscosmos (Dimitry Rogozin) has been sacked.
Interesting. Rogozin appears as one of the faithful in Belton's
"Putin's People". He fought in the Transnistria War, so has experience of the present kind of war. He was Deputy PM for Defence, from 2011-18. He has been internationally sanctioned since the Crimea conflict.
So being sent off to run Roskosmos was possibly already some kind of a demotion for some reason? Although the mooted replacement is from a similar source, so perhaps actually it was some kind of a reward? Maybe you can fill your boots there more easily than in a political post? And the salary is apparently huge.
He has apparently recently been involved in a
twitter troll war with Musk. He has been sacked the same day that Roskosmos completed an agreement with NASA over the ISS, which he had been threatening might de-orbit. Maybe that's what Putin didn't like? But surely such an agreement would be entirely with Putin's assent?
This article instead suggests his high profile anti-US belligerence might have been attempted cover for poor decisions/management. Though the entire Russian economy has been suffering from the current kleptocracy's extractions, so surely it's poor performance is on a par with everything else.
This article suggests instead that Rogozin's next job will become governor of a newly conquered bit of Ukraine. Maybe that's the kind of thing he'd be "better" at, from a Putinesque perspective.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:18 am
by EACLucifer
IvanV wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:14 am
Pishwish wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:17 pm
In space related news, the undiplomatic head of Roscosmos (Dimitry Rogozin) has been sacked.
Interesting. Rogozin appears as one of the faithful in Belton's
"Putin's People". He fought in the Transnistria War, so has experience of the present kind of war. He was Deputy PM for Defence, from 2011-18. He has been internationally sanctioned since the Crimea conflict.
So being sent off to run Roskosmos was possibly already some kind of a demotion for some reason? Although the mooted replacement is from a similar source, so perhaps actually it was some kind of a reward? Maybe you can fill your boots there more easily than in a political post? And the salary is apparently huge.
He has apparently recently been involved in a
twitter troll war with Musk. He has been sacked the same day that Roskosmos completed an agreement with NASA over the ISS, which he had been threatening might de-orbit. Maybe that's what Putin didn't like? But surely such an agreement would be entirely with Putin's assent?
This article instead suggests his high profile anti-US belligerence might have been attempted cover for poor decisions/management. Though the entire Russian economy has been suffering from the current kleptocracy's extractions, so surely it's poor performance is on a par with everything else.
This article suggests instead that Rogozin's next job will become governor of a newly conquered bit of Ukraine. Maybe that's the kind of thing he'd be "better" at, from a Putinesque perspective.
Rogozin's also just a straight up neo-nazi, for what it's worth.