Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:18 am
Maybe you could head over and massage his balls whilst they try to talk him down.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
Military analysts don't appear to be worried about 300,000. First, there is the question of if that number will actually be mustered. And even if it is, the second issue is that managing armies gets harder the larger they get. Given the Russians haven't well managed the current forces then even it's far from clear that the new troops will fare any better. It's more likely that the Russian numbers in the field wont change and the extra 300,000 allow for rotations.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amPutin is like the cornered rat that he likes to talk about.
He will turn it up to 11, but which dial will he be twisting? 300 000 is a lot of troops and will make a material difference when they are finally deployed. It also means a lot of dead soldiers on both sides.
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
Being the Forum Communist is one thing... it's being a Putin appeaser that sticks in the craw.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:05 amPossibly a tad more reliable than the forum communist.
There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
Very much this.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 amThere is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Prigozhin would, on the face of it, be worse than Putin.jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 amNot sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Indeed. I make it two people with independent armies that have no nominal reporting to Putin. Prigozhin and Kadyrov. And neither presumably with much liking for each other.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:14 pmPrigozhin would, on the face of it, be worse than Putin.jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 amNot sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
On the other hand, he is not a likeable or liked person. And he wouldn't be able to rely on the enormous incumbency advantage Putin has in such an apathetic and disengaged population. Prigozhin going after Putin's position could lead to them both falling, and that would be richly deserved.
Putin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 amThere is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Are there any other options for replacing Putin other than a military hardliner? In a struggle between Putin and Prigozhin could a third party emerge?jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 amNot sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Russia's "socialist" past was every bit as genocidal and brutal, every bit as racist and imperialist, as it's kleptocratic present.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:31 pmAre there any other options for replacing Putin other than a military hardliner? In a struggle between Putin and Prigozhin could a third party emerge?jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 amNot sure Putin has any out except feet first.
But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.
Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.
He also has an independent army.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Somebody non oligarchic and and more attuned to Russia's socialist past. The people must be coming to the realization that Putin's kleptocratic autocracy isnt working for them.
The options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pmPutin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 amThere is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 amThe time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
I don't see war until victory as a forseeable result given current trends. Victory over Russian forces in Ukraine might be quite quick if NATO were to implement a no fly zone and started bombing (what NATO does best). That would trigger a Russian nuclear response, without any doubt.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:48 pmThe options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pmPutin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am
There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.
The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.
It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
War until victory is not endless war.
That didn't work out for the Russia leadership on at least one occasion historically. It's very different fighting a war for survival vs being sent into a neighbouring country on nebulous, changing reasons.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:03 pmI don't see war until victory as a forseeable result given current trends. Victory over Russian forces in Ukraine might be quite quick if NATO were to implement a no fly zone and started bombing (what NATO does best). That would trigger a Russian nuclear response, without any doubt.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:48 pmThe options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pm
Putin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
War until victory is not endless war.
A prolonged ground war would favour Russia as they have millions they can conscript and send to the front. It also means an awful lot of dead Russians.
And dead Ukrainians. And a long and cold and miserable winter for Europe and the UK. Just to see a similar situation on the ground next year.
Evidence from Kharkiv suggests otherwise. Aside from the rapid liberation of territory, and enough captives to effect the prisoner exchange mentioned, Ukraine also captured enough tanks and IFVs to equip an entire mechanised brigade.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pmMaybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
They have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it. And the sooner they admit it, the fewer people wind up dead. If reduced numbers of war dead were what you truly wanted, you would be screaming for him to withdraw.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pmMaybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
This is absolutely spot on.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:58 pmThey have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it. And the sooner they admit it, the fewer people wind up dead. If reduced numbers of war dead were what you truly wanted, you would be screaming for him to withdraw.Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pmMaybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
But that is not the impression I am getting.
Well yes, either Putin has to admit it, or someone willing to admit it has to force Putin out. I am not sure how likely the first is, unless Putin can spin a complete failure as somehow being his plan all along.temptar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:58 pmThey have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it...Herainestold wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pmMaybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.