Page 2 of 150
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:44 am
by Bird on a Fire
Foreign Office displaying the same kind of poor intelligence as the rest of the government?
Or purely manufactukraine consent?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... in-ukraine
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:20 pm
by TopBadger
And China has apparently just made the largest flyby of Taiwan...
I expect China will be keenly looking on, to see the US response if Russia invades.
Nightmare scenario for the US (and the rest of the democratic world) would be if China and Russia might decide to go for it at the same time.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:29 pm
by Brightonian
TopBadger wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:20 pm
And China has apparently just made the largest flyby of Taiwan...
I expect China will be keenly looking on, to see the US response if Russia invades.
Nightmare scenario for the US (and the rest of the democratic world) would be if China and Russia might decide to go for it at the same time.
Yes, I've been thinking the same, well at the very least that China will crack down on Hong Kong and take over the Spratley Islands etc. once and for all. I remember when Russia walked into Georgia during the 2008 Olympics opening ceremony (or near enough).
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:39 pm
by dyqik
Winter Olympics start in China in just over a week.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:30 pm
by TopBadger
dyqik wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:39 pm
Winter Olympics start in China in just over a week.
And I'm sure some PRC military planner views the games as a sizable amount of prime human collateral...
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:24 pm
by Woodchopper
View from Ukraine:
https://kyivindependent.com/national/ce ... -analysis/
tl;dr A full scale invasion is unlikely over the next 2-3 weeks. Russia doesn’t have enough troops in place, including specialist units (eg field hospitals). But they perceive a high risk of lesser uses of military force combined with other operations such as increased cyber attacks.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:02 pm
by Allo V Psycho
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:24 pm
View from Ukraine:
https://kyivindependent.com/national/ce ... -analysis/
tl;dr A full scale invasion is unlikely over the next 2-3 weeks. Russia doesn’t have enough troops in place, including specialist units (eg field hospitals). But they perceive a high risk of lesser uses of military force combined with other operations such as increased cyber attacks.
Interesting stuff. I would have thought Odessa would be vulnerable. It doesn't need to be invaded, just disrupted. The additional Russian Ropucha class landing ships must be approaching the Black Sea now.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:25 pm
by Woodchopper
Good thread with further reading on the various aspects of the crisis:
https://twitter.com/jeffdcolgan/status/ ... 63015?s=21
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 8:11 pm
by Woodchopper
Russia continues to steadily build up its forces around Ukraine’s borders. Russia has a significant advantage in air power so it could probably defeat Ukrainian units in an open battle.
But IMHO they still don’t have enough men nearby to occupy a large proportion of Ukraine, and taking cities will probably be very difficult. By way of comparison Russia seems to
have about 150 000 troops near Ukraine. Back in 2003 the US invaded Iraq with about 180 000 coalition troops. However it soon was apparent that it’s forces were enough to defeat the Iraqi army, but not nearby enough to control the country. Ukraine has almost double the population that Iraq had in 2003.
But that doesn’t mean that it’s going to be peace. The Russian leadership may be deluded enough to believe that their soldiers will be welcomed with open arms.
More likely, they may plan to invade, destroy Ukrainian army units and infrastructure, and then withdraw. If that happened with relatively few Russian losses then Russia would continue to threaten Ukraine indefinitely.
Alternatively, Russia may opt to invade and occupy a smaller slice of territory which it can control. The outcome would be similar, as Ukraine would have to indefinitely live under the threat of future invasion.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:44 pm
by jimbob
How is that last bit any different to what Russia has done to the East or even more to the Crimea?
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 10:58 pm
by Woodchopper
Pretty much the same. Which leads some to question whether there is any point to grabbing a bit more territory.
The difference between then and now is that in 2014 the Ukrainian government had collapsed and its armed forces had been neglected since independence. So Russia could take what it wanted.
Now Ukraine has a reasonably effective and legitimate government and an army that has been fighting since 2014. It would take an invasion to grab more territory.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:36 am
by Bird on a Fire
Surely this is all just a big flex to consolidate Russian control over Crimea?
f.ck around and scare everyone, then magnanimously withdraw and do the less-bad thing you really wanted all along. Works for North Korea, Israel, manipulative children and right-wing politicians pretty consistently.
Plus all that gas we forgot to not need by now by ignoring the Paris Announcement.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:56 am
by Woodchopper
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:36 am
Surely this is all just a big flex to consolidate Russian control over Crimea?
f.ck around and scare everyone, then magnanimously withdraw and do the less-bad thing you really wanted all along. Works for North Korea, Israel, manipulative children and right-wing politicians pretty consistently.
Plus all that gas we forgot to not need by now by ignoring the Paris Announcement.
De facto, they already have control over Crimea, and there's nothing that Ukraine can do about it. In terms of Crimea, its difficult to see how the current strategy would give Russian anything it didn't have already.
The areas controlled by the Donetsk separatists are more vulnerable in the long term. But Russia would will likely win an any conventional war against Ukraine.
Putin
has written a long essay in which he basically states that the Ukraine has always been an integral part of Russia and Ukrainians have been Russians. Understood in those terms the motivation is to try to bring a lost territory and people back into the fold.
So then there's two explanations for Russian actions. The first is that Putin believes that the majority of Ukrainians actually desire to be Russian and would welcome invading Russian troops. I think that would be s delusion, but such delusions are not unknown, especially among leaders who surround themselves with people who are adept at telling them what they want to hear. Think back to 2003 and the Americans who seemed to sincerely believe that they would be joyously welcomed as liberators in Iraq.
Second, and I think more likely, is that Moscow's strategy is to undermine Ukraine over the long run. The threat of invasion has already had a significantly negative effect upon the Ukrainian economy (why invest there is you're worried that it'll soon be a battlefield). So just keep up the pressure permanently and add to the threat of invasion other means to harm the economy and government.
The west has threatened more sanctions. However, as you write, dependence upon Russian gas supplies means that there is a limit to how far the Europeans are willing to go, and high prices (caused in part by the crisis) mean that Russia has enough income to be able to ignore any economic pressure. The long term solution is obviously to shift to other sources of energy. A lot has been done already but its still going to take a long time before that dependence is over.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:59 am
by IvanV
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:56 am
Putin
has written a long essay in which he basically states that the Ukraine has always been an integral part of Russia and Ukrainians have been Russians. Understood in those terms the motivation is to try to bring a lost territory and people back into the fold.
Certainly by the time that the autonomous 1918-21 People's Republic of Ukraine came into existence, 15m of the population considered themselves Ukrainian in comparison to 2m Russians. There were also almost 2m Jews, and substantial minorities of Poles, Germans, Romanians, etc.
The trouble is that all of Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine see the Kievan Rus as their cultural origin. For a brief period in the 11th and 12th centuries there was a Rus kingdom that included both core Ukraine and the lands around Moscow to the north. But Ukraine has long been a warground. When the Grand Duchy of Moscow was formed in the 13th century, it excluded almost all of today's present Ukraine. Moscow sacked Kiev several times, but long failed to hold it. Ukraine divided among various ever-changing nations at this time - large parts were controlled by Lithuania and Poland, as well as Mongol Khanates, at various times. The Tsardom of Russia came into existence in the 16th century, and vastly expanded itself, quickly taking over much of eastern Ukraine. But Kiev remained part of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth until the mid-17th century. It is not surprising that Ukrainians evolved a separate language and identity. Ukraine only obtained its full present western extent after the 2nd World War, when the Soviet Union grabbed bits of Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Romania.
Then we have the Soviet history of the
Holodomor famine of 1932-33, where the production reduction disaster of agricultural collectivisation was visited upon the Ukrainians, whose production was taken to feed others while the Ukrainians starved. Deaths are estimated in the range of 7 to 10 million. Of course nothing is ever quite that simple; there were also extensive areas of Russia and other Soviet republics that starved, indeed some of the worst areas of famine were in southern Russia and the Caucasus. But that and other slights over the years have left many Ukrainians with a large mistrust of Russians, and a strongly separate identity.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:32 am
by Woodchopper
IvanV wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:59 am
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:56 am
Putin
has written a long essay in which he basically states that the Ukraine has always been an integral part of Russia and Ukrainians have been Russians. Understood in those terms the motivation is to try to bring a lost territory and people back into the fold.
Certainly by the time that the autonomous 1918-21 People's Republic of Ukraine came into existence, 15m of the population considered themselves Ukrainian in comparison to 2m Russians. There were also almost 2m Jews, and substantial minorities of Poles, Germans, Romanians, etc.
The trouble is that all of Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine see the Kievan Rus as their cultural origin. For a brief period in the 11th and 12th centuries there was a Rus kingdom that included both core Ukraine and the lands around Moscow to the north. But Ukraine has long been a warground. When the Grand Duchy of Moscow was formed in the 13th century, it excluded almost all of today's present Ukraine. Moscow sacked Kiev several times, but long failed to hold it. Ukraine divided among various ever-changing nations at this time - large parts were controlled by Lithuania and Poland, as well as Mongol Khanates, at various times. The Tsardom of Russia came into existence in the 16th century, and vastly expanded itself, quickly taking over much of eastern Ukraine. But Kiev remained part of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth until the mid-17th century. It is not surprising that Ukrainians evolved a separate language and identity. Ukraine only obtained its full present western extent after the 2nd World War, when the Soviet Union grabbed bits of Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Romania.
Then we have the Soviet history of the
Holodomor famine of 1932-33, where the production reduction disaster of agricultural collectivisation was visited upon the Ukrainians, whose production was taken to feed others while the Ukrainians starved. Deaths are estimated in the range of 7 to 10 million. Of course nothing is ever quite that simple; there were also extensive areas of Russia and other Soviet republics that starved, indeed some of the worst areas of famine were in southern Russia and the Caucasus. But that and other slights over the years have left many Ukrainians with a large mistrust of Russians, and a strongly separate identity.
Yes, and we can add that for hundreds of years most of present day Ukraine was ruled by the Mongols and was then part of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. I don't have time to work it out, but if we're looking at long term history, over the past 1000 years, Kyiv probably hasn't been part of a Russian state (or proto state) for more than half the period.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:38 am
by Woodchopper
Putin seems to be going for an award for unpleasant diplomatic language:
“You may like it, you may not like it — deal with it, my gorgeous,” Mr. Putin said of Mr. Zelensky, repeating a crude Russian rhyme.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/worl ... raine.html
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:12 pm
by Woodchopper
Thread:
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1491521222437445633
In summary, Russia now has the units in place to conduct a major attack upon Ukraine. It may not do so, but if it does it'll be over the next month or so. Russia is unlikely to want to keep so much of its arms forces concentrated around Ukriane for the long term (it faces security threats elsewhere).
IMHO Russia has enough of an advantage in airpower to be able to defeat the Ukrainian army in open battle, but Russian troops would be spread too thin if they try to occupy for a long period Kyiv, Ukriane east of the Dnieper, or a land bridge to Odessa. Short term raids or occupying smaller bits of Ukraine are more likely if Putin is rational, or a bl..dy insurgency if he isn't.
We could start thinking about wider repercussions. An obvious one would be increases in gas prices in Europe, with likely indirect effects upon electricity prices. If the Russian gas supplies are stopped then Europeans may be looking at power cuts and millions being at risk of hypothermia.
If Russia wants to directly harm Western economic interests the submarine cables that carry the internet look pretty vulnerable. Cutting them would cost Russia little and likely cause much disruption.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:48 pm
by TopBadger
Cutting internet cables would be a dick move that would also effect wealthy Russian overseas interests... could end up getting himself assassinated...
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:51 pm
by Woodchopper
TopBadger wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:48 pm
Cutting internet cables would be a dick move that would also effect wealthy Russian overseas interests... could end up getting himself assassinated...
I don't think that Putin is worried about being a dick.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:56 pm
by TopBadger
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:51 pm
TopBadger wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:48 pm
Cutting internet cables would be a dick move that would also effect wealthy Russian overseas interests... could end up getting himself assassinated...
I don't think that Putin is worried about being a dick.
Absolutely... but he might be worried about enemies at home bumping him off.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:02 pm
by Woodchopper
TopBadger wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:56 pm
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:51 pm
TopBadger wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:48 pm
Cutting internet cables would be a dick move that would also effect wealthy Russian overseas interests... could end up getting himself assassinated...
I don't think that Putin is worried about being a dick.
Absolutely... but he might be worried about enemies at home bumping him off.
If he's to be assassinated it'll be by his generals.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:56 pm
by monkey
US and UK have urged their citizens to leave.
clicky
That's not good. I am assuming that they think the risk of invasion is high enough to warrant it, which means that the talks are not going well*.
*Liz Truss.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:40 pm
by monkey
monkey wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:56 pm
US and UK have urged their citizens to leave.
clicky
That's not good. I am assuming that they think the risk of invasion is high enough to warrant it, which means that the talks are not going well*.
*Liz Truss.
No, not going well at all.
clicky
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:06 pm
by sTeamTraen
Something I hadn't realised until I saw Putin's press conference with Macron earlier is that there is a very strong bit of logic to Russia's objection to Ukraine joining NATO. That is, Ukraine could in principle invoke Article 5 on day one of its NATO membership, based on Russia's annexation of Crimea. (Russia is also occupying bits of Donbas, of course, but that's notionally denied, whereas it has formally occupying Crimea.)
On this logic, Ukraine joining NATO would be a de facto declaration of war on Russia by NATO. Doubtless the people who are paid to think about this have already done so, but this was new to me.
(I should confess that I don't know the history of Crimea as Russian or Ukrainian, much beyond it having been transferred from the Russian SSR to the Ukrainian SSR in the 1950s, presumably as part of some Kremlin-v-the-provinces politicking.)
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:07 am
by nekomatic