The cost of living

[Little waster]

Meanwhile


I'm not entirely sure what I've just watched.


Cocaine, kids. Just say no!

[Grumble]

Meanwhile


I'm not entirely sure what I've just watched.


Cocaine, kids. Just say no!

I heard his (Gove’s) now ex-wife describing him as a modern day Dante. I’m not sure how good Dante was at doing funny voices, so maybe Gove is even more of a cultural touchstone.

[Gfamily]

Meanwhile


I'm not entirely sure what I've just watched.


Cocaine, kids. Just say no!

I heard his (Gove’s) now ex-wife describing him as a modern day Dante.

Are you sure she didn't mean he's just a bit slow? <<- bad musical joke

[dyqik]

Meanwhile


I'm not entirely sure what I've just watched.


Cocaine, kids. Just say no!

I heard his (Gove’s) now ex-wife describing him as a modern day Dante. I’m not sure how good Dante was at doing funny voices, so maybe Gove is even more of a cultural touchstone.

Which circle is he moving through now? Eighth or Ninth?

[Little waster]

Meanwhile


I'm not entirely sure what I've just watched.


Cocaine, kids. Just say no!

I heard his (Gove’s) now ex-wife describing him as a modern day Dante. I’m not sure how good Dante was at doing funny voices, so maybe Gove is even more of a cultural touchstone.

I've heard a lot of discussion that this was a deliberate dead cat ploy by Gove to distract from the message that he was delivering that the election manifesto promise of building 300k houses per year wouldn't be delivered and in fact could never have be delivered and as such that they weren't even going to attempt to try and deliver it.

And it has "worked" in the sense that nobody is currently discussing the utter failure of the government's flag-ship housing policy ... no instead we are all discussing the fact that one of the most senior and supposedly able Tory ministers, the one tasked with delivering the levelling-up agenda that is supposedly will define the entire government's whole programme, is actually an unhinged, coked-up maniac.

Given Gove's fondness for badly-dated cultural references I should probably post a picture of a tired-and-emotional Charlie Sheen saying "Winning!" now.

[lpm]

Hooray!

Labour (and LibDems) have won a little bit of power and can get their policies adopted.

This is a pretty decent bit of help to the poorest. Congratulations to the opposition for getting it done.

[jimbob]

Hooray!

Labour (and LibDems) have won a little bit of power and can get their policies adopted.

This is a pretty decent bit of help to the poorest. Congratulations to the opposition for getting it done.

I presume that now it's adopted, as Starmer told Johnson, Johnson can now call Starmer, "Captain Hindsight" again.

Because that seems to be his approach.

Labour and others say that specific action is required
Johnson refuses
Labour reiterate
Johnson refuses
Situation worsens
Johnson acts
Starmer points out the impact of the delay
Johnson calls him Captain Hindsight

[TopBadger]

Apart from when you call it ahead of time - that's foresight.

[jimbob]

Apart from when you call it ahead of time - that's foresight.

Nah, you just ignore it until criticized for acting too late and then pretend they didn't tell you before

[lpm]

Bank of England:

Peak inflation now forecast to to be 11%.

Expects Q2 GDP to fall by 0.3%.

This is really f.cking bad. They need to slam up interest rates much faster than 0.25% increments, raise taxes at the top end, drive into a recession but with far higher government welfare spending at the low end. Basically crash consumption spending (C), boost government spending (G), and use classic Keynes to get us out of the recession/stagflation in 2023-24.

[Bird on a Fire]

They won't though, will they?

They'll use it as an excuse to cut taxes at the top end, cut red tape and sell public assets.

[Woodchopper]

Bank of England:

Peak inflation now forecast to to be 11%.

Expects Q2 GDP to fall by 0.3%.

sh.t. I remember being taught about stagflation by lecturers in the early 1990s. They were describing the situation 15 years previously, and it seems that since the 1990s its been little more than a historical curiosity.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Bank of England:

Peak inflation now forecast to to be 11%.

Expects Q2 GDP to fall by 0.3%.

This is really f.cking bad. They need to slam up interest rates much faster than 0.25% increments, raise taxes at the top end, drive into a recession but with far higher government welfare spending at the low end. Basically crash consumption spending (C), boost government spending (G), and use classic Keynes to get us out of the recession/stagflation in 2023-24.

If they can wait a couple of weeks to slam up interest rates until we've got an offer on our house and a mortgage offer on the table, that'd be great

[Little waster]

Bank of England:

Peak inflation now forecast to to be 11%.

Expects Q2 GDP to fall by 0.3%.

sh.t. I remember being taught about stagflation by lecturers in the early 1990s. They were describing the situation 15 years previously, and it seems that since the 1990s its been little more than a historical curiosity.

I for one am shocked that pointlessly sticking up trade barriers with our nearest and largest market and cutting ourselves off from a large and mobile employment pool would reduce GDP and raise inflation.

I'm guessing the only E all these PPE graduates from Oxford Uni must get exposed to are the ones with the smiley faces on that Ravey Dave used to slip to them in the Student Union on a Friday night.

[monkey]

Bank of England:

Peak inflation now forecast to to be 11%.

Expects Q2 GDP to fall by 0.3%.

sh.t. I remember being taught about stagflation by lecturers in the early 1990s. They were describing the situation 15 years previously, and it seems that since the 1990s its been little more than a historical curiosity.

I for one am shocked that pointlessly sticking up trade barriers with our nearest and largest market and cutting ourselves off from a large and mobile employment pool would reduce GDP and raise inflation.

I'm guessing the only E all these PPE graduates from Oxford Uni must get exposed to are the ones with the smiley faces on that Ravey Dave used to slip to them in the Student Union on a Friday night.

I'm sure Brexit hasn't helped, but Inflation is a global problem, you can't blame it just on that.

[Little waster]

sh.t. I remember being taught about stagflation by lecturers in the early 1990s. They were describing the situation 15 years previously, and it seems that since the 1990s its been little more than a historical curiosity.

I for one am shocked that pointlessly sticking up trade barriers with our nearest and largest market and cutting ourselves off from a large and mobile employment pool would reduce GDP and raise inflation.

I'm guessing the only E all these PPE graduates from Oxford Uni must get exposed to are the ones with the smiley faces on that Ravey Dave used to slip to them in the Student Union on a Friday night.

I'm sure Brexit hasn't helped, but Inflation is a global problem, you can't blame it just on that.

No but it worsens all the global economic challenges we face whether it is the pandemic, the war in Ukraine or world inflation.

It is what is tipping a problem into a crisis and accounts for why we have been doing relatively worse than most comparable economies constantly since 2016 on all major metrics and will continue to do so until at least 2024 when many of the economic headwinds will have dissipated for everybody else.

Doing an obstacle course is hard but attempting it after you’ve tied your shoelaces together and picked up a hod of bricks is just stupid. Complaining then that the reason you’re second-last is because the monkey bars were a bit slippy isn’t going to fool anyone.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Consumer confidence is the lowest ever, apparently. Lower than during the 2008 global recession. Lower than during austerity. Lower than after the Brexit vote. Lower than during the depth of the pandemic. Also, according to the Guardian, lower than "manufacturing wipe out of the early 1980s, [and] the housing crash of the early 1990s".

https://twitter.com/HelloMcQueen/status ... 8614669316

[Little waster]

Consumer confidence is the lowest ever, apparently. Lower than during the 2008 global recession. Lower than during austerity. Lower than after the Brexit vote. Lower than during the depth of the pandemic. Also, according to the Guardian, lower than "manufacturing wipe out of the early 1980s, [and] the housing crash of the early 1990s".

https://twitter.com/HelloMcQueen/status ... 8614669316

ALL. THE. BIG. CALLS. RIGHT.

[FlammableFlower]

Just to bring threads annoyingly together...

One of the things Johnson blamed the recent by-election defeats on was the cost of living crisis, but now he's going to move on. He's going to be in for a shock if he thinks that that we've seen the worst of this crisis.

[tom p]

Just to bring threads annoyingly together...

One of the things Johnson blamed the recent by-election defeats on was the cost of living crisis, but now he's going to move on. He's going to be in for a shock if he thinks that that we've seen the worst of this crisis.

Well, he's a hack, innee? He thinks that when the next crisis comes along, the old one must be over, like living through daily headlines.

[Bird on a Fire]

Heatflation: How sizzling temperatures drive up food prices

In Italy, the hot and dry conditions are expected to destroy a third of the seasonal harvest of rice, corn, and animal fodder — at a minimum. Locusts have descended on the island of Sardinia in the worst invasion in three decades, hurting the production of hay and alfalfa. The European Commission recently downgraded its soft-wheat harvest estimates from 130 million tons to 125 million tons — more bad news amid a food shortage precipitated by Russia’s blockade on exports from Ukraine.

In a report last year, researchers at the European Central Bank examined the evidence that abnormal temperatures can drive inflation. Looking at seasonal temperatures and price indicators in 48 countries, they found that hot summers had “by far the largest and longest-lasting impact” on food prices. The effect lasted almost a year and was especially noticeable in developing countries. “We find that higher temperatures over recent decades have played a non-negligible role in driving price developments,” the authors concluded.

New normal, innit.

I think it's reasonable to expect food prices in general to stay higher and less predictable than we got used to in recent decades.

[Little waster]

Heatflation: How sizzling temperatures drive up food prices

In Italy, the hot and dry conditions are expected to destroy a third of the seasonal harvest of rice, corn, and animal fodder — at a minimum. Locusts have descended on the island of Sardinia in the worst invasion in three decades, hurting the production of hay and alfalfa. The European Commission recently downgraded its soft-wheat harvest estimates from 130 million tons to 125 million tons — more bad news amid a food shortage precipitated by Russia’s blockade on exports from Ukraine.

In a report last year, researchers at the European Central Bank examined the evidence that abnormal temperatures can drive inflation. Looking at seasonal temperatures and price indicators in 48 countries, they found that hot summers had “by far the largest and longest-lasting impact” on food prices. The effect lasted almost a year and was especially noticeable in developing countries. “We find that higher temperatures over recent decades have played a non-negligible role in driving price developments,” the authors concluded.

New normal, innit.

I think it's reasonable to expect food prices in general to stay higher and less predictable than we got used to in recent decades.

Something something ... shouldn’t tackle climate change ... something ... protect the economy ... something.

[Bird on a Fire]

Almost like long term growth requires long term thinking.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Quick question from me on inflation - how does the current high inflation affect government income from taxes, etc?

[Woodchopper]

Quick question from me on inflation - how does the current high inflation affect government income from taxes, etc?

Returns from VAT increase automatically. Revenue from income tax will increase in line with pay rises. Corporation tax will be complicated.

Government borrowing will be cheaper in the long run. Current rate on a UK 10 year bond is just below 2%. With inflation at about 10% at least in the short term investors are basically paying the UK government for the privilege of lending the UK money.