Scrutable

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:59 am

In France the electricity price rise has been capped at 4% https://www.politico.eu/article/frances ... ouseholds/ (even though their nuclear plants have been struggling to run at full capacity at times, due to the heatwave and drought impacting the cooling mechanisms).

The price cap is forcing EdF to sell energy at such a large loss, that they are taking the French government to court over it, to pay for the shortfall.

The really big problem with the French nuclear reactors is corrosion, due to some shoddy practices at time of construction. Earlier this year about half of them were shut down for inspections, fixes, etc. I think some of them have been cleared to turn back on, though temporarily and/or not at full blast. Many of them are going to need some expensive attention and prolonged shutdowns in due course to be able to continue for their intended lifespans.

Yes, Britain had its dash for gas, which has led us to be able to nearly close down our coal stations. The main use for gas in Europe is space heating, so parts of Europe with cold winters will eventually start to suffer as we are already suffering. It is arguably unfortunate that gas became so very cheap at just the wrong time, that the follow-ons to Sizewell B, whose purpose was to be the first in class of a new series of nuclear reactors, got cancelled. And then Fukushima came along and we tied ourselves up in knots with new safety rules that make building reactors today so much more difficult and expensive. Hinkley Pt C only makes sense similarly. The govt has just given planning permission for Sizewell C, after 10 years in consideration, and even that was arguably a petulant act by a departing prime minister.

IvanV wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 05, 2022 8:47 am

Yes, Britain had its dash for gas, which has led us to be able to nearly close down our coal stations. The main use for gas in Europe is space heating, so parts of Europe with cold winters will eventually start to suffer as we are already suffering. It is arguably unfortunate that gas became so very cheap at just the wrong time, that the follow-ons to Sizewell B, whose purpose was to be the first in class of a new series of nuclear reactors, got cancelled. And then Fukushima came along and we tied ourselves up in knots with new safety rules that make building reactors today so much more difficult and expensive. Hinkley Pt C only makes sense similarly. The govt has just given planning permission for Sizewell C, after 10 years in consideration, and even that was arguably a petulant act by a departing prime minister.

The dash for gas began in 1990.

Fukushima was in 2011.

We've had 30 leisurely years to insulate every home and win energy independence via renewables. And wasted it all.

We don't get to moan about problems we've inflicted on ourselves. It's reaping time.

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 05, 2022 8:56 am

IvanV wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 05, 2022 8:47 am

Yes, Britain had its dash for gas, which has led us to be able to nearly close down our coal stations. The main use for gas in Europe is space heating, so parts of Europe with cold winters will eventually start to suffer as we are already suffering. It is arguably unfortunate that gas became so very cheap at just the wrong time, that the follow-ons to Sizewell B, whose purpose was to be the first in class of a new series of nuclear reactors, got cancelled. And then Fukushima came along and we tied ourselves up in knots with new safety rules that make building reactors today so much more difficult and expensive. Hinkley Pt C only makes sense similarly. The govt has just given planning permission for Sizewell C, after 10 years in consideration, and even that was arguably a petulant act by a departing prime minister.

The dash for gas began in 1990.

Fukushima was in 2011.

We've had 30 leisurely years to insulate every home and win energy independence via renewables. And wasted it all.

We don't get to moan about problems we've inflicted on ourselves. It's reaping time.

Indeed, we have only ourselves to blame for a series of strategic misjudgments.

The planning process for Sizewell B began in 1969. A PWR design was finalised in 1981, and permission to proceed was given in 1987. It opened in 1995. We could actually build and open a first-in-class nuclear power station in 8 years back then. But it still took 20 years in the thinking about it beforehand, something other countries seem to be able to avoid.

Then, as you say, the dash for gas began a little while after we started building Sizewell B, resulting in the cancelling of the follow-ons.

Building houses in this country is expensive in comparison with many of our neighbours, because the regulators worry about all sorts of little things, but not the big ones like making them very well insulated. The result is our cramped and inefficient housing stock.

Although we shouldn't moan about what we have inflicted on ourselves, there are votes in pointing fingers at people who had nothing to do with it.

This plan for the govt to heavily subsidise gas is great.

I had been worrying about the hassle of getting more insulation, installing solar panels and the nightmare of switching to heat pumps. A lot of up-front cash to invest.

Now I won't need to bother with any of that. I can stick with burning gas and spend the money on a winter visit to St Lucia.

Seems I have to wait for my tax cut for a few more weeks, though.

Jeez, the 5 year gilt rate. At midday it was 2.88%. Now 3.10%.

Insane movement. This is what totally absurd magic money tree borrowing by a reckless Corbynite Trussite government does.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:20 pm

Jeez, the 5 year gilt rate. At midday it was 2.88%. Now 3.10%.

Insane movement. This is what totally absurd magic money tree borrowing by a reckless Corbynite Trussite government does.

Totally insane, who'd a ever thunk that the 5 year note generic bid yield for UK Government Bonds, as determined by the Principal Paying Agent in a commercially reasonable manner on the date falling one (1) Business Day prior to each Reset Date by reference to Bloomberg screen page "GUKG5" (UK Govt Bonds 5 Year Generic Bid Yield) or such other screen page, section or part of Bloomberg as may replace it would a hit 3.1%. As you say totally absurd & reckless. Couldn't agree more.

What the useless f.cking suckers making up the English electorate don't realise is:

- Truss is going to save them a couple of hundred quid a month on their energy bills
- Truss is going to drive up interest rates and that will cost them several hundred quid a month on mortgage repayments

As a quick estimate, by the end of the year the average household with a non-fixed mortgage will save about £130 per month on energy and pay £400 extra on mortgages. Thanks Liz!

Even worse for the house price obsessed tabloids, house prices in real terms are going to fall quite signifcantly. 20-30% maybe over couple of years.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:41 pm

What the useless f.cking suckers making up the English electorate don't realise is:
....

Additionally, to try and get inflation under control, it is probably their intention to let unemployment grow, to make people feel a bit insecure in their jobs, so that people won't demand so much in wage increases to pay for these inflationary cost of living increases.

And they don't seem to care that the government hand-outs are going especially to the rich, and are brazen about it. Apparently Truss thinks its fair to give money to the rich - BBC, and her justification is just laughable.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:20 pm

Jeez, the 5 year gilt rate. At midday it was 2.88%. Now 3.10%.

Insane movement. This is what totally absurd magic money tree borrowing by a reckless Corbynite Trussite government does.

Although at the rate the pound is falling, that's probably still negative in dollars.

ETA: the pound has fallen -16.7% on the year, so yes, that's still very negative in USD.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:41 pm

What the useless f.cking suckers making up the English electorate don't realise is:

- Truss is going to lend them a couple of hundred quid a month for their energy bills, to be repaid over the next ten years. Oh, and guess what:
- Truss is going to drive up interest rates and that will cost them several hundred quid a month on mortgage repayments

I think I've fixed that for you, but I'm damned if I can figure out what she's actually proposing.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:42 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:20 pm

Jeez, the 5 year gilt rate. At midday it was 2.88%. Now 3.10%.

Insane movement. This is what totally absurd magic money tree borrowing by a reckless Corbynite Trussite government does.

Although at the rate the pound is falling, that's probably still negative in dollars.

ETA: the pound has fallen -16.7% on the year, so yes, that's still very negative in USD.

To be fair to this f.cked up pathetic island, that's because the USD is so strong thanks to Biden's successes. Against the EUR the pound is a touch weaker than the last few months, but pretty much unchanged vs a year ago. Obviously Euroland has the same gas problem as Toryland.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:49 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:42 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:20 pm

Jeez, the 5 year gilt rate. At midday it was 2.88%. Now 3.10%.

Insane movement. This is what totally absurd magic money tree borrowing by a reckless Corbynite Trussite government does.

Although at the rate the pound is falling, that's probably still negative in dollars.

ETA: the pound has fallen -16.7% on the year, so yes, that's still very negative in USD.

To be fair to this f.cked up pathetic island, that's because the USD is so strong thanks to Biden's successes. Against the EUR the pound is a touch weaker than the last few months, but pretty much unchanged vs a year ago. Obviously Euroland has the same gas problem as Toryland.

Yeah the € is worth less than the $ now.

Doesn't Toryland rely on Norwegian gas?

Obviously the Norwegians are making money, whilst at the same time saving money for folks who live there. The main supplier is state owned.

https://www.gassco.no/en/

However, to please the Torylanders on here, strikes still happen.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62058512

Watched this last night and Bronagh Munro is a thorough reporter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... cashing-in

I currently work for a water company in the billing department. Today I had a customer call, asking us to disconnect them from their water supply because they can't afford their bills. I was able to get them to apply for one of our schemes to reduce their bills to an affordable amount so we will still be able to supply them and told them that we are legally prevented from disconnecting customers due to non-payment.

They said that when they phoned the gas company to disconnect the agent told them they were the fifth customer that day asking for their gas to be disconnected. Customers are struggling to afford the standing charges, let alone the cost of actually using gas or electricity.

People are going to die this winter. They are going to die preventable deaths. I'm absolutely ashamed of this country and boiling with rage at the government for allowing things to get this bad.

My next door neighbour had a severe mental health breakdown. I talked to the neighbour next to her about the blue bottles against the kitchen window and the continuous overflow pipe, which was impacting on my property - she immediately went inside (back door was open) but thankfully no one was there even though the place was an absolute horrific mess - she turned the taps on in the bathroom to stop the overflow.

I had called United Utilities and they came out. No way could they cut of the water supply and they said that fixing the overflow, not costly, could send some people into serious poverty. They were incredibly understanding. The problem was resolved finally, but the whole episode enlightened me regarding the kind and caring response of United Utilities. Neighbour went to live with her sister.

We have a little tap house round the corner, opened about 5 years ago and survived Covid by bottling their own beer and doing drop offs and the like. Today he has had a quote for his electricity bill (bearing in mind he only has an air conditioned 'cellar' and very little else) which was £180 a month, but is going up to £510 a month. He is going to try to keep going but I can't see it, but I'll continue to do my bit. One of the other pubs in the village has also had a massive increase in electricity prices and he has informed the brewery that he can't afford it.

This is going on all over.

It pointless giving isolated information, like "£510 a month". There's only meaning if we know a sense of the proportion of energy cost in total cost.

Does this require him to put his prices up by 1%? 10%? 100%?

All businesses should be raising their prices due to inflation.

So he should just increase the prices 280%? It's more like a community asset, he rents the old corner shop from his mate, probably very cheap, only opens limited hours. He should just close on commercial grounds then?

Why 280%? Is energy his only cost?

veravista wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:48 pm

So he should just increase the prices 280%? It's more like a community asset, he rents the old corner shop from his mate, probably very cheap, only opens limited hours. He should just close on commercial grounds then?

That’s capitalism isn’t it?

It seems that we don't need to worry after all. From https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... key-points I find that we are saved by government action:

the measure will save the average household about £1,000 a year

and that

The government will fund the scheme to reduce the unit cost of energy via increased borrowing, likely to exceed £100bn.

Since there are 28.1 million households in the UK that means borrowing £3,559 to save £1,000. It would be less than half the cost to just give £1,500 to each household.

Portuguese government is giving us all 125€ lol

People are mostly pissed off about it, but for me that's about 3 months energy bills sorted (the money, being fungible, will be spent on booze, drugs and crisps)

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:04 pm

Portuguese government is giving us all 125€ lol

People are mostly pissed off about it, but for me that's about 3 months energy bills sorted (the money, being fungible, will be spent on booze, drugs and crisps)

Oi! You have a thesis to finish. Thesis writing is not compatible with the ingestion of massive amounts of crisps.

Allo V Psycho wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 4:03 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:04 pm

Portuguese government is giving us all 125€ lol

People are mostly pissed off about it, but for me that's about 3 months energy bills sorted (the money, being fungible, will be spent on booze, drugs and crisps)

Oi! You have a thesis to finish. Thesis writing is not compatible with the ingestion of massive amounts of crisps.

My keyboard is pretty greasy to be fair.

tenchboy wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:28 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:20 pm

Jeez, the 5 year gilt rate. At midday it was 2.88%. Now 3.10%.

Insane movement. This is what totally absurd magic money tree borrowing by a reckless Corbynite Trussite government does.

Totally insane, who'd a ever thunk that the 5 year note generic bid yield for UK Government Bonds, as determined by the Principal Paying Agent in a commercially reasonable manner on the date falling one (1) Business Day prior to each Reset Date by reference to Bloomberg screen page "GUKG5" (UK Govt Bonds 5 Year Generic Bid Yield) or such other screen page, section or part of Bloomberg as may replace it would a hit 3.1%. As you say totally absurd & reckless. Couldn't agree more.

Now 4.00%.

Mortgage refixing is going to be the real blow to households over the next 2 years to the election.