Scrutable

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:23 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:20 pm

Every mortgage applicant (in the UK) gets a sensitivity analysis. The mortgage offer will say something like "if the interest rate rise to X your repayments will be Y".

Adults should be given info like this and then left to their own decisions.

I feel like it's good to teach people how to do the calculations and to have an intuitive feel, as well as giving them specific examples.

If you just mean people here, I'm sure you're right. But I do know people, including family members, who are basically innumerate, in that a number being one or two orders of magnitude out, or being monthly vs yearly, isn't something they have any intuitive feel for. So being given the results of trustworthy analyses is useful too.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:48 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:23 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:20 pm

Every mortgage applicant (in the UK) gets a sensitivity analysis. The mortgage offer will say something like "if the interest rate rise to X your repayments will be Y".

Adults should be given info like this and then left to their own decisions.

I feel like it's good to teach people how to do the calculations and to have an intuitive feel, as well as giving them specific examples.

If you just mean people here, I'm sure you're right. But I do know people, including family members, who are basically innumerate, in that a number being one or two orders of magnitude out, or being monthly vs yearly, isn't something they have any intuitive feel for. So being given the results of trustworthy analyses is useful too.

That's why I explicitly said that specific examples should be given as well, yes.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:10 am

Millennie Al wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:38 am

A long term fixed rate must include a premium to cover the risk that interest rates will rise and cut profits. If too few customers are willing to pay this premium - e.g. by being obsessed with minimising their monthly payments - then it's not worth offering such a product.

This is not correct. The interest rate risk is hedged.

The hedging has a cost. Though there may be ways in which the cost is not expressed in the interest rate - for example, a 30-year fixed rate loan might guarantee recurring revenue for 30-years, and so be worth more to a lender than a variable rate loan at the same interest rate. But equally, from the borrower's point of view, the fixed loan has the cost that if interest rates fall they are locked into the initial rate.

wilsontown wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:03 pm

When I got my mortgage about a year and a half ago, there was a single illustrative example in the mortgage offer letter of what the monthly payment might rise to if the interest rate were 9.49%. I'm not sure why they chose that particular number. Luckily the interest rate is fixed for another three and a half years but who knows what the situation will look like then...

I often get illustrations from pension companies (I have several bits of pension lying around from former employments), which I think they are required to supply. I have usually felt the selection of scenarios offered was not very helpful.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:41 pm

What the useless f.cking suckers making up the English electorate don't realise is:

- Truss is going to save them a couple of hundred quid a month on their energy bills
- Truss is going to drive up interest rates and that will cost them several hundred quid a month on mortgage repayments

As a quick estimate, by the end of the year the average household with a non-fixed mortgage will save about £130 per month on energy and pay £400 extra on mortgages. Thanks Liz!

Even worse for the house price obsessed tabloids, house prices in real terms are going to fall quite signifcantly. 20-30% maybe over couple of years.

Sounds like good news is on the way from Hunt.

Abandoning the disaster that is the fossil fuel price cap in April 2023. Replace with proper means tested type of support.

Higher energy costs for the middle/upper deciles, offset by lower than otherwise mortgages.

I'll never get over the fact that left wing environmentalists were so eager to call for this disastrous fossil fuel subsidy. It lies at the heart of the Trussterfuck.

We've got to pick our fights in the coming months because it will be bl..dy awful whatever.

The only three things worth making a noise about are:

- benefits increased by inflation
- pensions increased by inflation
- free meals at schools

All the stuff about spending cuts for NHS, defence, departments are a red herring. Whatever budget is awarded will make no difference to performance over the next six months. The death toll from the various NHS collapses is now baked in and the damage from worsening education comes in over years. We're going to have austerity for the next two years no matter what.

And obviously campaigning for higher taxes for the rich etc is a non-starter.

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:57 pm

The only three things worth making a noise about are:

- benefits increased by inflation
- pensions increased by inflation
- free meals at schools

- pensions increased by inflation TICK

Now need to take advantage of the weakness of the PM and relentlessly press on benefits.

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 19, 2022 12:29 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:57 pm

The only three things worth making a noise about are:

- benefits increased by inflation
- pensions increased by inflation
- free meals at schools

- pensions increased by inflation TICK

Now need to take advantage of the weakness of the PM and relentlessly press on benefits.

pensions lock is going to be expensive. If she's going to continue in the opposite direction that she promised then this could all end quite well.

She'll be rejoining the Lib Dems at this rate

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 19, 2022 2:58 pm

She'll be rejoining the Lib Dems at this rate

You're assuming that she ever left...

Interesting thread on mortgage affordability: https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/status ... qrRBMVHAvA

An unusually well explained article from the BBC on why so many energy suppliers collapsed and others didn't, and how the collapse of Bulb and its take-over by Octopus might end up costing the taxpayer £6.5bn. There's a lot of assumptions in that number, and there is a claw-back scheme if things go better than pessimistic forecast. Interesting to learn also that the government ended up losing a lot less money from running Bulb between its failure and now than was expected at the time.

Woohoo! Inflation now rounds up to 11% rather than rounding down to 11%!

Praise the Lord!