Post
by EACLucifer » Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:15 am
I previously mentioned the idea of dividing causes into "Why Putin wants to invade" and "Why he thought he could get away with it", but I can think of another issue too, and that's "Why now?"
As for why not sooner, I think it is quite possible that Putin thought a second Trump term would cripple NATO and make it a lot easier to get away with an invasion, so instead of immediately following up his initial invasion of southern and eastern Ukraine, he waited for that to happen. We are very lucky things didn't pan out that way.
As for when in the year, there's two times of year when it's best to move troops and vehicles in that region of the world - summer, when the ground is dry, and winter, when the ground is frozen. The weather's been a bit warmer than expected, though, and the ground is softer than expected.
And perhaps most importantly, why now and why not wait? I think the answer might lie in the development of Ukraine's military. In the years since the initial Russian invasion, Ukraine has - with western help - transformed its army. Ukraine's army is better equipped and much better organised and lead than it was eight years ago, and if anything that trend's been accelerating. Military aid from the west, arms deals and domestic production have seen Ukraine gain effective drones, upgraded tanks, anti-tank weapons, precision rifles and so on, but even more importantly communications equipment, training, and a very large number of combat veterans from the war in the east.
In short, given how badly Russia has performed, it is quite possible that they wouldn't have stood a chance of invading if Ukraine's rearmament had continued for another few years. It's even possible they knew that they would struggle in a protracted war - which they are - and so chose to gamble on a quick special military operation to seize the country before it was out of reach.
I would add it is also entirely possible that I'm seeing things through July Crisis tinted glasses that make everything look like Imperial Germany, as this is very similar to the position the German and Austro-Hungarian Empires were in regarding Russian Empire modernisation prior to World War One.
