Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Jun 09, 2023 8:06 am

https://youtu.be/EQ6rJJvssao

Interesting video on the dam explosion looking at who could have done it (Russia)

Why. ... Some possible reasons but not very good after the very initial action. ... Panic or accidentally triggering it early being a couple of possibilities

And prognosis.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jun 09, 2023 8:53 am

Reports are starting to come out that despite retaking territory Ukrainian units have taken significant losses in the recent shaping operations. That is in line with expectations as any defenders in layered prepared positions have an advantage (especially when they have lots of ATGWs, mines and artillery).
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/08/poli ... index.html

Far too early to make predictions of losses in the overall offensive though.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jun 09, 2023 9:07 am

Intercepted Russian conversation on the dam breach. Suggests that it was blown up deliberately, but the destruction was more than intended.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 97731?s=20
Translation in the top comment.

If true we can adapt the old quote from All the President's Men:
Forget the myths the media's created about the [Russians]. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.
And of course, such fools are still guilty.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jun 09, 2023 9:16 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Jun 09, 2023 8:53 am
Reports are starting to come out that despite retaking territory Ukrainian units have taken significant losses in the recent shaping operations. That is in line with expectations as any defenders in layered prepared positions have an advantage (especially when they have lots of ATGWs, mines and artillery).
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/08/poli ... index.html

Far too early to make predictions of losses in the overall offensive though.
Oh for f.ck's sake. We're a day or so into the offensive and information is scarce. That does not mean that the anonymous dickheads who brief against Ukraine have anything useful to offer, not least because they - thankfully - don't have much information on Ukrainian intentions and expectations.

The USA needs to clamp down on these shitweasels. Make it damn clear that nobody with any security clearance talks to the press without proper authorisation, and refuse that authorisation for the cowardly-nitpicker faction who love to brief against Ukraine. And then back that up with a court martial for anyone who doesn't abide by it.

There's a faction within the USA's security establishment that believed Russia's own claims about its military prowess and have barely adjusted their views after more than a year of evidence to the contrary.

As for actual evidence, we can infer a little from what video evidence we do have. We don't have much from the Ukrainian side, as they tend to be pretty tight at keeping this sort of thing under wraps. We do have a video from the Russian side, with lots of shots of burning vehicles, except when you look closely, there's repeat shots of the same losses. So we've actually got something like four M113s and one Leopard 2A4 lost. The Russians are desperate to show a Ukrainian offensive failure, so if they had something worse than that, they'd have shown it.

And I agree that losses are expected - the first part of an offensive is the most difficult part. There will be losses. NATO kit is not invincible, wonder-weapons aren't a thing. Even if they were, Leo 2A4s wouldn't be them, they are 80s tanks that have significant advantages over ex-Soviet tanks, but are far from invulnerable. Abrams, Challenger-2s and more modern Leo-2 variants are better armoured, but they are still vulnerable too. That it was a Leopard 2 and not a T-72 that was destroyed is because it was a Leopard 2 attacking a fortified line and not a T-72.

It is also quite possible - likely - that this is not the main offensive effort. Ukraine needs to mislead and misdirect the Russians, and they can't do that without committing forces. To make a diversionary attack believable, it has to look like the real thing, and what better way to do that than to include a few NATO tanks? I'd add that this isn't necessarily a diversionary attack, more likely a probe that will effectively become a diversionary attack if Russia massively reinforces to counter it and leaves a vulnerability for the remaining forces, who will then launch the main effort at the vulnerability. If this gets somewhere, though, it will get reinforced and become the main effort.

The offensive will be difficult, and there is no guarantee of success. We don't have much information. A few vehicle losses on the Ukrainian side, a few images of captured Russian vehicles - something we haven't seen much lately in the largely positional warfare phase - and troops, but there isn't much being released by the Ukrainian side and for good reason. We've got evidence of Ukrainian advances on the flanks of Bakhmut, and we've got Russian channels getting very worried about the Zaporizhzhia front and talking about pulling back to secondary defence lines in some places. It's frustrating not knowing what's going on, but articles written by journalists who have the talent required to flatter some bellend from the DOD into talking when they shouldn't but lacks the requisite knowledge to actually understand what they are being told and put it in context and probably only discovered what Dragons Teeth are some time this year don't actually inform. The fact that they give equal time to Russian claims despite how much they f.cking lie also tells you how much this article is worth, and the same goes for the "CNN has not been able to verify either claim" re the Kakhovsky Dam copout. The Russian claims are basically impossible, and you can and should include that in the article. That quote about it being your job as a journalist to look out of the window and f.cking check not just report on what both sides say feels relevant.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jun 09, 2023 9:23 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Jun 09, 2023 9:07 am
Intercepted Russian conversation on the dam breach. Suggests that it was blown up deliberately, but the destruction was more than intended.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 97731?s=20
Translation in the top comment.

If true we can adapt the old quote from All the President's Men:
Forget the myths the media's created about the [Russians]. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.
And of course, such fools are still guilty.
That theory is something Volodymyr Tretyak posted about, which I posted over on the other thread.

The fact that things can get out of hand very quickly with works containing dangerous forces is one reason why targeting them is forbidden. Once a dam starts to fail, the vast reserve of potential energy will do the rest, once the water starts flowing, it will cut the rest of the dam to pieces. The Kakhovsky dam was designed to resist nuclear attack, and could shrug off any weapon in the Ukrainian arsenal - and the Russian conventional tactical arsenal - but explosives on the inside only need to crack the thing enough for the water to start flowing through, and it will run away from there. And because this is well known, and because of the prohibition of such attacks in modern international law, whether or not they meant to damage it a little bit or a lot, attacking the dam itself makes them guilty.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jun 09, 2023 2:51 pm

Ukrainian summary of attacks against Russian positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/09/ ... esistance/

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jun 09, 2023 3:17 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Jun 09, 2023 2:51 pm
Ukrainian summary of attacks against Russian positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/09/ ... esistance/
Link isn't working for me. I think the link's right, but perhaps there's too much demand or something because while it accesses cloudflare, cloudflare then doesn't acces EuroMaidanPress

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Fri Jun 09, 2023 3:28 pm

Worked second try for me - I think you're right it could be a load thing.

Sounds like a bit of a grind at the moment - not unexpectedly.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jun 09, 2023 3:37 pm

Imrael wrote:
Fri Jun 09, 2023 3:28 pm
Worked second try for me - I think you're right it could be a load thing.

Sounds like a bit of a grind at the moment - not unexpectedly.
Worked for me, too. It seems like a plausible assessment. Things tend to be slow at first. We're seeing probes from formations ranging from platoon to company strength, not the sort of "Tank Fist" we saw at times in Kherson and Kharkiv when things got moving there - that doesn't mean we won't see that sort of approach, but it is not yet time for it. At the moment things seem quite reminiscent of the earlier stages of the Kherson offensive last summer. It's important to remember that while the west dithered and delayed about materiel aid, Russia was adding belts of mines and dragons teeth and trenches, and they take effort to overcome and losses are near-inevitable in doing so.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jun 09, 2023 3:39 pm

Reports, backed up by footage, of a Leopard 2 that had been damaged and lost a track being successfully repaired.

The interesting thing this tells us is that Ukrainian engineers were able to work to repair the tank, meaning they had possession of the area it was in. Of course that could mean it was damaged by artillery in a rear area, but if, as is most likely, it was an anti-tank mine, it means Ukrainian forces have managed some degree of advance.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:06 pm

Early days yet and very unreliable sourcing, but Russian sources are talking about Russian units being driven back and even withdrawing "to more advantageous positions" due to threat of encirclement in the area south of Velyka Novosilka. We aren't talking a particularly large scale advance yet if these reports are true at all, but the Velyka Novosilka area's worth keeping an eye on.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sun Jun 11, 2023 9:10 am

Looks like the Russian MoD is trying to take over Wagner. All volunteers at the front have been ordered to sign contracts with the MoD, this includes Wagner.

Prigozhin won’t like this at all. With any luck he’ll actively resist and we’ll see them fighting each other. What a shame that would be while the Ukrainians are carrying out reconnaissance in force, probing for where to send their main assaults.

https://russianfreepress.com/2023/06/10 ... mc-wagner/

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jun 11, 2023 11:17 am

Latest European arms production problems
The UK has supplied Ukraine with Challenger 2 MBTs fitted with a L30 120mm rifled guns as well as AS90 155mm/39cal self-propelled howitzers, which have probably already used some of their barrel life up before being donated.

Both of these use barrels produced at the Royal Ordnance Factory (ROF) Nottingham which was the sole source for UK tank, artillery and naval gun barrels with some smaller calibres made at BMARC at Grantham. Both of these are now closed and the sites redeveloped.

An Armament Production Facility was established at Barrow-in-Furness by BAE Systems but this was shut down some years ago due to lack of orders.

The 155mm/39cal barrel for the best-selling BAE Systems M777 series Lightweight Howitzer is made at Watervliet Arsenal in the USA.

In the short term the UK could probably supply replacement barrels to Ukraine by stripping these from vehicles no longer in front-line service.

In a statement BAE Systems said: 'We no longer have barrel manufacturing equipment. But we have retained the workforce and the knowledge. We are now looking into what it would take to restart building the capability in the UK.'
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/land ... ms-admits/

May be possible to get the barrels made in other countries, of course. But that would also take time and money.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jun 11, 2023 11:31 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Jun 11, 2023 11:17 am
Latest European arms production problems
The UK has supplied Ukraine with Challenger 2 MBTs fitted with a L30 120mm rifled guns as well as AS90 155mm/39cal self-propelled howitzers, which have probably already used some of their barrel life up before being donated.

Both of these use barrels produced at the Royal Ordnance Factory (ROF) Nottingham which was the sole source for UK tank, artillery and naval gun barrels with some smaller calibres made at BMARC at Grantham. Both of these are now closed and the sites redeveloped.

An Armament Production Facility was established at Barrow-in-Furness by BAE Systems but this was shut down some years ago due to lack of orders.

The 155mm/39cal barrel for the best-selling BAE Systems M777 series Lightweight Howitzer is made at Watervliet Arsenal in the USA.

In the short term the UK could probably supply replacement barrels to Ukraine by stripping these from vehicles no longer in front-line service.

In a statement BAE Systems said: 'We no longer have barrel manufacturing equipment. But we have retained the workforce and the knowledge. We are now looking into what it would take to restart building the capability in the UK.'
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/land ... ms-admits/

May be possible to get the barrels made in other countries, of course. But that would also take time and money.
The USA often complains that European countries don't pull their weight with NATO, but perhaps if they didn't insist on one-sided rules to undermine other countries defence industries and defence spending in Europe stayed more in Europe there might be a greater willingness to spend. The M777 was a British product, but the USA wouldn't possibly buy a British made howitzer, so they insisted production take place in the USA. It's also to the USA's detriment - so insistent that they must buy American, they are trying to bodge floats onto a Hercules rather than buying the excellent Japanese US-2 flying boat.

There's a couple of things NATO could really do with right now. One of them is a rationalisation of autocannon calibre/cartriges. Rather more importantly is a joint procurement reform to ensure that what's left of the defence industry in NATO countries can properly meet its needs. Either a top down agreement system where work is shared out across countries, or a breakup of the monopolies that are formed by too many mergers and leave firms able to charge too much for products that are delivered late or under-spec. And whatever approach is chosen, there needs to be slack in the system so that production can be ramped up if needed without needing to build new facilities or production lines. The notion that a war would be so sudden and short that it could only be fought with weapons already in the arsenals has been disproven.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jun 11, 2023 11:40 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:06 pm
Early days yet and very unreliable sourcing, but Russian sources are talking about Russian units being driven back and even withdrawing "to more advantageous positions" due to threat of encirclement in the area south of Velyka Novosilka. We aren't talking a particularly large scale advance yet if these reports are true at all, but the Velyka Novosilka area's worth keeping an eye on.
Blahodatne is liberated

It's only a few kilometres behind where the frontline had stabilised, but it represents a greater advance than that, as the Ukrainians appear to have swung round in a left hook, taking Blahodatne and getting behind Russian positions at Neskuchne.

Not confirmed yet, but multiple Russian sources suggesting Neskuchne's been abandoned due to risk of encirclement and thus presumably liberated, with Ukrainians moving to attack Novodonetsk and Urozhaine.

These are still small probing attacks, not a major thrust, as far as I can tell, and though the Russians are being pushed back, they have not yet been pushed back to their main fortified belt in this area.

There's also further liberation of territory on the Bakhmut flanks with Ukrainian forces now reportedly attacking Yahidne, as well as closing up with Klishchiivka, and rumours that Ukrainian troops are moving into position to attack north of the Siversky Donets as well.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sun Jun 11, 2023 11:44 am

The notion that a war would be so sudden and short that it could only be fought with weapons already in the arsenals has been disproven.
On that last point, has it actually? NATO isn’t fighting a war in Ukraine, Ukraine is fighting it with a hodge lodge of equipment and rapidly trained conscripts. Russia attempting the same against Poland or other NATO member would have been a very different issue.

China is the only other country likely to give NATO any difficulty.

That’s not to take away from the main point of your post though.

ETA:
Bother, ninja’d. Added a quote

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jun 11, 2023 12:34 pm

bjn wrote:
Sun Jun 11, 2023 11:44 am
The notion that a war would be so sudden and short that it could only be fought with weapons already in the arsenals has been disproven.
On that last point, has it actually?
It hasn't been disproved that it could happen, but it has been disproved that it would happen and the idea that trying to ramp up production during a conflict would always be futile has been disproven, and that's enough to support the point about needing slack capacity to be able to increase production when necessary.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Sun Jun 11, 2023 2:01 pm

Recent article I've now lost the link to said US is worried that war with China would consume stocks too quickly for it to win.

So it seems to be a recurring theme, neither US nor Europe has enough production capacity to support a prolonged war with a near peer adversary.

Good to hear about Ukraine advances, I wonder how Russian stocks are holding up.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jun 11, 2023 2:07 pm

It's important to time hits against logistics correctly. Too early, and the damage is repaired or supply lines re-routed before the supply difficulties can be exploited. This one seems like good timing - a bridge reportedly destroyed by partisans on the railway line that supplies the entire occupied south, just south-west of Melitopol.

With no rail route from the east, the entire rail supply lines to the occupied south now end just 75km north of Crimea, and 85+km from the front line. It'll be repaired soon, it's not a big bridge, but with Ukrainian forces pressing down all along the southern frontline, any disruption to supplies coming up through Crimea's going to hurt. The partisans are either in touch with and directed by Ukraine's intelligence services, or just sabotage teams sent directly by GUR.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jun 11, 2023 2:58 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Jun 11, 2023 2:07 pm
It's important to time hits against logistics correctly. Too early, and the damage is repaired or supply lines re-routed before the supply difficulties can be exploited. This one seems like good timing - a bridge reportedly destroyed by partisans on the railway line that supplies the entire occupied south, just south-west of Melitopol.

With no rail route from the east, the entire rail supply lines to the occupied south now end just 75km north of Crimea, and 85+km from the front line. It'll be repaired soon, it's not a big bridge, but with Ukrainian forces pressing down all along the southern frontline, any disruption to supplies coming up through Crimea's going to hurt. The partisans are either in touch with and directed by Ukraine's intelligence services, or just sabotage teams sent directly by GUR.
I agree, may tie in with the earlier attacks on the port infrastructure in Berdyans'k and Mariupol which were likely hit by Storm shadows.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jun 11, 2023 3:58 pm

A map of the fortifications Ukraine is facing. I nicked it off twitter, I think it originates with the Telegraph, but it also corresponds to other maps of them which are less simply readable.

Image

You can see why the attack is from Velyka Novosilka - it's only got one line of fortifications behind it. There are, however, attacks right along the line, because if nothing else it is essential to force Russia to garrison the whole thing and spread their forces out. If, for example, the Russians pile everything they have into defending the area south of Velyka Novosilka, it gets much easier to overcome the fortification belts further west.

The physical barriers of these fortifications are, in theory, easily overcome - mine ploughs and line charges for the mines, bulldozers or sappers with demo chargers for the dragons teeth, bridging vehicles, fascines or even bulldozers and infill for the ditches and trenches - however when garrisoned and supported by artillery, ATGMs and aviation, they are a formidable obstacle. Ukraine need to either punch through where there's a single belt and manoeuvre from there, or work on thinning the garrisons by attrition and misdirection until there is a weak point that allows the whole depth to be breached. In practice, it's damn difficult, and one of the reasons I'm so angry aid was slow-walked last year - it took time to build these, and if there had been a force of comparable size to the one that liberated much of Kharkiv oblast ready to continue that momentum they could have either liberated much of Luhansk oblast and flanked the Russian positions in the Donbas or cut the landbridge to Crimea. Now it's going to be a lot harder - and again, it would have been easier if Ukraine had received jet training and transfers in a timely fashion as they'd be able to keep Russian attack helicopters well away from Ukrainian assaulting forces.

ETA: The arrows marked "Ukrainian Advances" represent the direction Ukrainian forces are trying to move in, but not the distance achieved; so far none of those marked fortification belts are known to be breached

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Sun Jun 11, 2023 4:44 pm

What that Telegraph map lacks is a title in the pink area, matching the "Ukraine" in the grey area, and saying "also Ukraine".

On an earlier point about manufacturing capacity, it's understandable that the US wants all its procurement to be backed by domestic manufacture so they can make parts in a crisis but it does lead to concentration of manufacture there as otherwise you have duplication of plant where everyone is mostly idle. The extra problem with UK 120mm rifled barrels and ammo is of course that it was decided existing stocks were enough to see us through to the next generation which will be NATO standard smoothbore. Consequently I'm inclined to think the best use of Challengers we can spare for Ukraine is for them to be committed early and used up. Better to be left with more Leopards using the same gun and ammo as Abrams. (Unless there's some operational reason not to, like some task the Challengers are better saved for or the Leopards are better used for right now).

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jun 11, 2023 5:49 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Sun Jun 11, 2023 4:44 pm
What that Telegraph map lacks is a title in the pink area, matching the "Ukraine" in the grey area, and saying "also Ukraine".

On an earlier point about manufacturing capacity, it's understandable that the US wants all its procurement to be backed by domestic manufacture so they can make parts in a crisis but it does lead to concentration of manufacture there as otherwise you have duplication of plant where everyone is mostly idle. The extra problem with UK 120mm rifled barrels and ammo is of course that it was decided existing stocks were enough to see us through to the next generation which will be NATO standard smoothbore. Consequently I'm inclined to think the best use of Challengers we can spare for Ukraine is for them to be committed early and used up. Better to be left with more Leopards using the same gun and ammo as Abrams. (Unless there's some operational reason not to, like some task the Challengers are better saved for or the Leopards are better used for right now).
Duplication of plant with some sitting idle is more expensive and less profitable, but exactly what we need as it means there is spare capacity to allow for comparitvely quick production rate increases.

Leopards a bit faster, Challengers a bit tougher, Leopards maybe hit slightly harder with the main gun, Challengers maybe slightly more accurate at long range. >90% of the time a Challenger can do a Leopard's job and vice versa.

We're fitting a hundred and fifty or so Challenger 2s with new turrets and new guns in the next few years - stripping their guns for spares maybe necessary, especially as the crucial problem with rifled guns isn't anything to do with hitting power, it's that the extremely powerful charges needed to fling kinetic energy penetrators downrange at significant multiples of the speed of sound wear the rifling out very fast.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jun 11, 2023 6:58 pm

Another day another dam blown by the Russians. This time the dam on the Mokri Yala was blown, according to Ukrainian officials. This probably won't slow down the Ukrainian advance - which is moving south along both banks of the Mokri Yala river - very much, though it might affect the utility of one possible staging point, specifically Staromlynivka. This settlement is the site of a road junction and a road bridge. It is about 9km south of confirmed Ukrainian advance positions and 5km south of a settlement Ukrainian forces are reportedly attacking. Given the Ukrainian habit of bypassing settlements to cause their abandonment, and the delay on news reports which is perhaps half a day or a day - for example the news of the liberation of Blahodatne broke this morning but the footage was filmed in an evening - Ukrainian forces could already be approaching Staromlynivka, which is still just a little north of the Russian fortified line in this area. It is also most likely that the bridge over the Mokri Yala in Staromylnivka, assuming it survives any flooding from the breach of the relatively small reservoir, would be blown by the retreating Russians, but things are moving fast so perhaps they might not get that sorted before they have to withdraw.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 12, 2023 12:51 pm

It's quite clear the Ukrainians are aiming for Staromlynivka. That would open up a number of possibilities for attacking the defensive lines just south of it, and because of their single-layered nature at this point, force the Russians to strongly garrison those lines, as they would not have time to respond to an attempt to breach them otherwise.

Various reports place the Ukrainians as attacking Urozhaine, Staromaiors'ke and possibly Zavitne Bazhannya, possibly even having taken Urozhaine. Urozhaine is 6km north of Staromlynivka and about 10 km south of Ukrainian starting positions, as is Staromaiors'ke. Zavitne Bazhannya is just three kilometres north of Staromlynivka, measuring centre to centre - the gap between the settlements is just a kilometre on the east bank of the Mokri Yala, and half that on the west bank of that river.

Ukrainian positions are confirmed in Makarivka, Blahodatne and Storozheve. Those were confirmed as liberated yesterday or today. Two days ago Russians were filmed in an unsuccessful counterattack to try and retake Storozheve, which was announced as liberated yesterday, so it is possible we are getting a bigger time gap than the half day to a day I estimated, it could be as much as a day more than that.

All of the above settlements are on the Mokri Yala river, with Ukrainian troops advancing south along both banks. The river rises near Volnovakha, which might be the objective for the moment as it is on key high ground and commands the approaches from the north to Mariupol and Berdyansk.

It is possible Ukrainian troops are already at Staromlynivka, indeed one Russian channel last night that is quite well connected talked about Russian forces holding Ukrainians off at that settlement. Given the Ukrainian tendency to bypass villages and attack them from behind or envelop them, claims of fighting at multiple settlements in a row can be simultaneously true. There is talk of Russian counterattacks from the west of this line of settlements, however, the Russian positions in that area are squeezed by the Ukrainian liberation of Levadne, which lead to the abandonment of Russian positions at Novodarivka. The remaining Russian position on the old front line at Rivnopil is at risk of encirclement if the Russians do not retreat, and they may have already retreated from that village.

The frontline is moving, but this is still a probing attack and the main force has not been committed.

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