jimbob wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:37 am
EACLucifer wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:58 am
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:52 am
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 11bJObNCkA
Video includes the sound of something overflying at about 0:15, the light from an explosion at about 0:40 and sound from the explosion at about 20 seconds later. Of course the overflight could be coincidental. But if it is what hit the airbase then its jet powered (sound and apparent speed).
Assuming the overflight is connected, then we've got a munition flying at mach 0.8, which is exactly in the expected speed range for a jet powered munition of this sort (I'm saying munition, because a fast-ish subsonic single use jet powered flying object that carries a warhead and aims to dive into the target to deploy that warhead isn't really a loitering munition in the conventional sense - it's probably better to think of this as a manually controlled cruise missile - and that's assuming that it is manually controlled. If it it's GPS or GPS/INS guided, or has either guidance like TERCOM or radar/IR/optical terminal guidance, then it's just a cruise missile).
https://ukrjet.ua/eng#topaz
They list the radius of controlled flight as 100km, though. On the other hand, they list the flight time as 90 min and with a speed of 600-800km/h, that would give a range of 1000km - and 1000km is conjecture, Engels-2 and Ryazan are in the 450-600km range from the border.
They also give the maximum flight time in minutes, underneath the entry where they give it in min, as 20, like this;
"Maximum flight time, min Up to 90
Maximum flight time, minutes 20"
So something doesn't add up on that page, but it could even just be a type of 100 for 1000, or it could be something else.
That looks exactly like the sort of system that one would expect to be used for this, weird stats notwithstanding. Also, though it probably isn't truly stealthy, it probably doesn't have a huge radar cross section. One of those loaded with explosives would give something similar in performance to a cruise missile, save for the radically smaller warhead. On the other hand, the blast at Engels-2 looked pretty big, and if it damaged two Tu-95s, it was big, because those things are huge. Grafting on a third hand, however, it should be noted that if they were able to hit fuel or ammunition stores, they don't need anything like as much warhead.
Also, if the stats listed are correct and the limiting factor is the base station range, then modifying it to fly to specific coordinates and hit them without human intervention - turning it into a true cruise missile - would allow it to operate beyond the range of base stations anyway.