Blyatskrieg

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Woodchopper
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:59 am

Another Russian AEW&C A-50 shot down last night.

It was about 240km from the frontline so it’s an interesting question as to what hit it.

Also, people are quoting a financial value of $350 million.
That’s beside the point, as all of Russia’s A-50s are Soviet manufactured and so they’re irreplaceable in a practical sense.

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TimW
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:02 am

TASS have the full story:
https://tass.com/emergencies/1750921 wrote: Two flight vehicles fall in Krasnodar Region

No casualties reported

KRASNODAR, February 23. /TASS/. Two aerial vehicles fell in the Kanevsky district of the Krasnodar Region, one of them caught fire, which has spread to nearby reeds, the regional emergency services reported, adding that there were no casualties reported.
"According to information from the Kanevsky district, at about 8:00 p.m. local time, two aircraft fell near the Trudovaya Armenia farm in the Kanevsky district. After fire brigades arrived, it was established that the aircraft and reeds are on fire and that the fire has spread to an area of about 250 square meters. Residential buildings are not in danger, there are no casualties among the residents of the farm," the statement said.
Forty personnel and 14 pieces of equipment are involved in the firefighting efforts. Law enforcement agencies and special services are working on the site.
Top detail is: reeds are on fire.

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TimW
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:12 am

Update!
Fire caused by crash of flight vehicles contained in Krasnodar Region

The fire has been localized on an area of 2,500 square meters

MOSCOW, February 23. /TASS/. The fire that started after the fall of aerial vehicles in the Kanevsky district of the Krasnodar region has been contained on an area of 2,500 square meters, the emergency services told TASS.

"As of now, the fire has been localized on an area of 2,500 square meters where flight vehicles fell," the statement said.
That's a lot of reeds.

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Martin Y
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:23 am

TimW wrote:
Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:12 am

That's a lot of reeds.
Won't somebody think of the buntings?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Feb 26, 2024 10:32 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:59 am
Another Russian AEW&C A-50 shot down last night.

It was about 240km from the frontline so it’s an interesting question as to what hit it.
Speculation that it was shot down by an 5V28 missile, which is fired by the S-200 system. Two interesting points with that. Firstly, that Ukraine's S200 systems had been withdrawn from service before 2022 and secondly, as the missile dates back to the 1960s it should have been possible for the A-50 to evade being shot down using a mixture of jamming and chaff decoys.

So there lies the possibility that the 5V28 had been upgraded with modern electronics and perhaps linked to a different air defence system (Ukraine has many). In the last point, Ukraine has already developed so called 'FrankenSAMs' which involve a combination of Nato and Soviet elements in a single system (eg western missiles and soviet pattern radar).

If they exist, one big question is how many upgraded 5V28 based systems exist.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Feb 26, 2024 9:54 pm

Long thread on Russian artillery stocks and losses.
https://x.com/bentanmy/status/1762117582935687218?s=20

tl;dr Russia can sustain the current rate of losses for about two years until it runs out of artillery.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:43 pm

Ukraine claiming to have taken down yet another Russian plane... Su-34... 8th aircraft in 10 days.

Meanwhile I saw somewhere that Russia has claimed a kill on an M1 Abrams.

And now the path is clear for Sweden to join NATO it looks like some Grippens will be heading the way of the UAF - still expected to take the best part of a year though.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:20 am

Russians lose another boat to drones...

Ukraine-Built MAGURA V5 Naval Drones Sink Russian Patrol Ship 'Sergey Kotov'

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29016?utm ... NEWS%2FWAR
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:29 pm

The good news is that it looks like at least one more A-50 got taken out on the ground. The factory that was refitting it was hit in the same strike.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ?r=US&IR=T

The (unsurprising) bad news is that Trump is going to throw Ukraine under a Russian tank if voted in as President, as confirmed by Orban (another sh.t-weasel).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ktor-orban

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:13 pm

According to Orbán, Trump has a “detailed plan” to end the Ukraine war…
Calling Trump “a man of peace”, Orbán said: “If the Americans don’t give money and weapons, along with the Europeans, the war is over. And if the Americans don’t give money, the Europeans alone can’t finance this war. And then the war is over.”
Cool. Good plan. Seems legit.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:39 pm

From about 53 minutes in the discussion: https://www.youtube.com/live/L8IBwse5sg ... W6cRUKfCgZ

Apparently the Ukrainians found that the GLSDB didn’t work very well.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Apr 26, 2024 6:41 am

Disappointing... did they say why?
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:05 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 6:41 am
Disappointing... did they say why?
Several reasons but Russian GPS jamming seems to be the big problem. That’s also why guided artillery rounds don’t appear to have been as decisive as people thought they’d be.

I wonder how GMLRS and Stormshadow etc are managing. I assume that they are able to function despite the jamming.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:10 am

Another thing that isn’t as decisive as expected:

Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia, in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack, two U.S. military officials told The Associated Press.

[…]

But the battlefield has changed substantially since then, notably by the ubiquitous use of Russian surveillance drones and hunter-killer drones. Those weapons have made it more difficult for Ukraine to protect the tanks when they are quickly detected and hunted by Russian drones or rounds.

Five of the 31 tanks have already been lost to Russian attacks.

The proliferation of drones on the Ukrainian battlefield means “there isn’t open ground that you can just drive across without fear of detection,” a senior defense official told reporters Thursday.
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russ ... 0063a8fb7a

Everyone is learning how to operate in that kind of environment.

It may be that tanks need an active protection system to destroy drones on the battlefield.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:31 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:10 am
It may be that tanks need an active protection system to destroy drones on the battlefield.
At the beginning people were asking if tanks were now obsolete due to success of Ukrainian Javelin/NLaw and artillery. That was probably more of a training/doctrine issue, but what we've seen of drone warfare might, at the extremes, make several profound differences including hugely reduced role for tanks, great difficulty in operating artillery systems.

Its notable that the picture for obtaining air superiority is a bit muddy. The Russians certainly haven't achieved it, but drone ability to locate and strike ground based air defences might change that. I think I read that the Ukrainians lost a Patriot battery that got spotted?

(And I also wonder about the vulnerability of surface ships including our 2 aircraft carriers to the sort of attacks we're seeing developed. But I'm sure smarter people than me are totally "on" this concern)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Apr 26, 2024 8:58 am

Imrael wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:31 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:10 am
It may be that tanks need an active protection system to destroy drones on the battlefield.
At the beginning people were asking if tanks were now obsolete due to success of Ukrainian Javelin/NLaw and artillery. That was probably more of a training/doctrine issue, but what we've seen of drone warfare might, at the extremes, make several profound differences including hugely reduced role for tanks, great difficulty in operating artillery systems.

Its notable that the picture for obtaining air superiority is a bit muddy. The Russians certainly haven't achieved it, but drone ability to locate and strike ground based air defences might change that. I think I read that the Ukrainians lost a Patriot battery that got spotted?

(And I also wonder about the vulnerability of surface ships including our 2 aircraft carriers to the sort of attacks we're seeing developed. But I'm sure smarter people than me are totally "on" this concern)
Swarming attacks with submersible or semi submersible drones, in conjunction with air based drones would probably be quite unpleasant. Hard to target something just below the surface.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:23 pm

If there's a common theme to what's changed in this conflict it's that abilities to deny an opponent the use of a space have advanced, but they don't give you the ability to exploit the space yourself as the other side can do that too. Ukraine has effectively denied Russia the free use of the Black Sea but hasn't gained control of the sea for itself. Russia suppressed Ukrainian air power but without gaining air supremacy; it has to keep its arcraft back and use long range standoff weapons. Tanks can't move in the open without being spotted and swarmed by weapons which are small and cheap but a real threat.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Apr 26, 2024 3:14 pm

None of which augers well for conventional western forces, based around reduced manpower but operating with better (i.e. more expensive) vehicles and equipment as force multipliers.

At least not until they all get fitted with anti drone laser systems (which I understand are being developed).
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bob sterman » Sun Apr 28, 2024 5:41 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:10 am
It may be that tanks need an active protection system to destroy drones on the battlefield.
OR just have them drive around inside a shed...

The Russian Turtle Tank Is The Weirdest Armored Vehicle Of The Ukraine War. The Craziest Thing Is, It Might Actually Work.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... ally-work/

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Apr 30, 2024 2:15 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2024 5:41 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:10 am
It may be that tanks need an active protection system to destroy drones on the battlefield.
OR just have them drive around inside a shed...

The Russian Turtle Tank Is The Weirdest Armored Vehicle Of The Ukraine War. The Craziest Thing Is, It Might Actually Work.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... ally-work/
Yes, they seem to be an effective way of protecting the tank and presumably people riding on it from FPV drones.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Apr 30, 2024 2:17 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:05 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 6:41 am
Disappointing... did they say why?
Several reasons but Russian GPS jamming seems to be the big problem. That’s also why guided artillery rounds don’t appear to have been as decisive as people thought they’d be.
On the latter point:
Once a conflict begins, adaptability and scaling drive outcomes. We must seize the current moment to prepare. For examples about how conflict drives adaptation, consider that the lifecycle of a radio in Ukraine is only about 3 months before it needs to be reprogrammed or swapped out as the Russians optimize their electronic warfare against it. The peak efficiency of a new weapon system is only about 2 weeks before countermeasures emerge. As another example of superior weapons systems handicapped by lack of software adaptability, consider that Excalibur precision artillery rounds initially had a 70% efficiency rate hitting targets when first used in Ukraine. However, after 6 weeks, efficiency declined to only 6% as the Russians adapted their electronic warfare systems to counter it. This shows how quickly adversaries can adapt to new technologies. This lack of adaptability is not an inherent property of software but rather a consequence of how we choose to manage it. After all, Ukrainian units with organic programming capability to rapidly adapt their UAV software have about 50% efficiency, while those reliant on companies and longer supply chains to make changes struggle to hit 20% efficiency. Keeping software in a pliant, fluid state is the only way to maintain tactical innovation.
From here, pages 3-4: https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/ho ... 240313.pdf

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue May 07, 2024 7:57 am

Zero Traffic and Detours: Why Attacking the Crimean Bridge Isn't Needed Anymore — Molfar Analyzes Satellite Imagery
https://molfar.com/en/blog/chomu-bilshe ... mskyi-mist

tl;dr it looks like the attacks last year severely damaged the bridge and there has been large drop in freight traffic using it. Russia has been using alternative land routes to re-supply its troops.

IMHO if correct Ukraine may not bother to use some of its ATACMS against the Kerch Bridge.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 13, 2024 5:45 pm

Danish PM says that F16s will be in the air over Ukraine within a month.
https://x.com/joerglau/status/179006813 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 13, 2024 9:59 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon May 13, 2024 5:45 pm
Danish PM says that F16s will be in the air over Ukraine within a month.
https://x.com/joerglau/status/179006813 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Clarified. Within months: https://x.com/joerglau/status/179012399 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 24, 2024 5:53 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 7:05 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2024 6:41 am
Disappointing... did they say why?
Several reasons but Russian GPS jamming seems to be the big problem. That’s also why guided artillery rounds don’t appear to have been as decisive as people thought they’d be.

I wonder how GMLRS and Stormshadow etc are managing. I assume that they are able to function despite the jamming.
Boeing is working on a fix to the susceptibility to Russian GPS jamming. But it’ll take a few months.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 024-05-23/

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