Blyatskrieg

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:18 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:53 am
The BBC is reporting Russia has won a glorious victory and has destroyed the Ukraine offensive.

Gerasimov himself led the Russian forces.

The BBC reports are based on information supplied by Russia so it is highly likely to be true.
Lol. The Russians have been hyping this constantly, knocking out dozens of tanks or whatever. What they released as supporting evidence is a low quality video featuring a few MRAPs, one of which possibly takes a hit.

At this stage, we aren't expecting major Ukrainian attacks. We're expecting probing and recon in force. Like, say, sending a small handful of MRAPs to see how strong resistance is in an area. Sometimes probes like that suffer casualties, which is a damn shame, but that's because war is unpleasant.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:34 pm

CalibreObscura posted a captured 2023 variant AK-12, it does not look well made in the slightest. Image

Contrary to popular reputation, AK-47s were well made and well finished guns. This AK-12...not so much. And while the AK-47 was pretty competitive with what was around in it's era, the AK-12 hasn't got that much going for it than a 47, hell, given the issues with wandering zero, in some areas its worse. Meanwhile the rest of the world moved on from M-14s and FALs and contemporary small arms in the west are vastly better than this.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:28 pm

A Russian source posted a photo to indicate that they were under attack from Leopard 2s. Problem is it was actually an AMX-10RC. There also isn't any context for the picture, other than that it is an AMX-10RC. It's going to be like Panzer-IVs and Tigers all over again, isn't it.

ETA: It's hard to know exactly what's going on, but it does look like we have reached the probing attacks phase of the offensive - this isn't going to be the main effort, unless a weakness is found that can be exploited. It's also important to remember that a) Ukrainian OPSEC is good enough most of the sources we have are Russian and b) Russian sources just f.cking lie all the f.cking time and not always in predictable or logical directions. They invent attacks that they then later repulse, and so on.

Also note that this stage will likely see some Ukrainian probing attacks/reconnaissance in force missions go wrong. There will be losses, sadly, but it is also important to keep the scope of it in perspective. If you see an abandoned vehicle or two, it doesn't mean the offensive has failed. We saw a lot of doom-mongering about the Kherson counteroffensive from irresponsible journalists based on extremely fragmented evidence, yet ultimately the Ukrainian forces advanced through a significant part of Kherson oblast and in conjunction with operations against the bridges, forced the Russians to retreat across the Dnipro.

User avatar
TopBadger
Catbabel
Posts: 781
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:16 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:28 pm
It's going to be like Panzer-IVs and Tigers all over again, isn't it.
But worse... if folks can't tell between tracks and wheels.

Anyway, regarding ongoing / future Ukrainian movements lets hope Russian Sappers are crap and those defensive lines are more for show than effect.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:31 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:16 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:28 pm
It's going to be like Panzer-IVs and Tigers all over again, isn't it.
But worse... if folks can't tell between tracks and wheels.

Anyway, regarding ongoing / future Ukrainian movements lets hope Russian Sappers are crap and those defensive lines are more for show than effect.
Lets hope so, but their job is to slow Ukrainian advances until reinforcements arrive. If Ukraine can get through them before that happens, they can break into the operational depth and there wreak havoc. So Ukraine need to break through fast, which is a radically different prospect depending on whether or not they are properly manned. A tank with a dozer blade can clear that sort of hastily deployed obstacle line, line charges and mine ploughs can clear the mines from in front of it, bridgelayers or engineering vehicles with fascines can fill the ditch behind it to allow the wheeled APCs to cross, and so on, but it's much harder if someone is shooting ATGMs at you.

On the other hand, as well as going fast, Ukraine can work to ensure Russian reinforcements go slow - so if they are looking at a breach, we might see a sudden wave of strikes on the transport network between it and where reinforcements are expected from and so on.

There's clearly some sort of fighting going on around Velyka Novosilka, which is west of Vuhledar, but I'd be surprised if it was anything other than a) a probe to see how the defences are in that area or b) an attempt to convince the Russians to move equipment around to see how they react and if that creates any gaps. Realistically, it's going to be a bit of both. There's also various claims about Ukrainian advances in the Bakhmut area, including possibly capturing the key high ground of Berkhivka just north of the city. Russian forces northwest of here around Orikovo-Vasylivka already have their supply lines under pressure as they run within range of Ukrainian FPV improvised loitering munitions.

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:44 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:53 am
The BBC is reporting Russia has won a glorious victory and has destroyed the Ukraine offensive.

Gerasimov himself led the Russian forces.

The BBC reports are based on information supplied by Russia so it is highly likely to be true.
In this new world information space, pick whose propaganda you want to believe. If you watch youtuber vids from Hindustan Times, you will see spectacular shots of Ukrainian positions being over run, Ukrainian tanks being blown up. Mearsheimer points out that in 2023, Russia has captured more territory than Ukraine.
Despite the best military hardware on the planet being supplied to Ukraine, it appears to be a stalemate.
I keep waiting for the 1917 scenario, but there is no Lenin waiting in the wings.

What makes it all so terrifying is that is that the Tsar didn't have a big red button.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
Grumble
Light of Blast
Posts: 4746
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:34 am

Well sh.t, the Russians clearly think the offensive is starting or they wouldn’t have blown up the Nova Kakhovka dam.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2915
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:57 am

Grumble wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:34 am
Well sh.t, the Russians clearly think the offensive is starting or they wouldn’t have blown up the Nova Kakhovka dam.
The dam is the source for the canal that feeds water to the Crimea, so they’ve just made life a lot harder for themselves.

User avatar
TimW
Catbabel
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:27 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:02 am

You were only supposed to blow the bl..dy road off!

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 5276
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:46 am

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:57 am
Grumble wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:34 am
Well sh.t, the Russians clearly think the offensive is starting or they wouldn’t have blown up the Nova Kakhovka dam.
The dam is the source for the canal that feeds water to the Crimea, so they’ve just made life a lot harder for themselves.
It depends whether they think they're going to hold Crimea in the long term
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:30 am

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:44 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:53 am
The BBC is reporting Russia has won a glorious victory and has destroyed the Ukraine offensive.

Gerasimov himself led the Russian forces.

The BBC reports are based on information supplied by Russia so it is highly likely to be true.
In this new world information space, pick whose propaganda you want to believe. If you watch youtuber vids from Hindustan Times, you will see spectacular shots of Ukrainian positions being over run, Ukrainian tanks being blown up. Mearsheimer points out that...
Yeah. If you ignore credible sources and gold-standard OSINT, you can convince yourself of anything regardless of the truth and you just did you pestilential bellend. Still feeling smug after celebrating the anniversary of China's massacre at Tiannenmen on Sunday, or are you the sort of sh.t-for-brains that denies the well-documented atrocity?

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:44 am

TimW wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:02 am
You were only supposed to blow the bl..dy road off!
They did that when they retreated from right-bank Kherson, what was left of it after Ukraine carefully struck the road without hitting the dam at the point it was furthest from the dam.

Western response to this needs to be much more than expressions of deep concern, grave concern or whatever people think they can say to sound appropriate but not actually have to respond. Putting airbases and military ports and missile launching equipment on the menu for strikes including within the so-called Russian Federation would be a start. As would a concrete promise to immediately provide yet more capable arms.

User avatar
lpm
Junior Mod
Posts: 5944
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:56 am

The reservoir is (was) unbelievably big.

We in the UK can't really perceive lakes of that size, nothing like what we think of as a reservoir.
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

User avatar
TimW
Catbabel
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:27 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:00 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:44 am
They did that when they retreated from right-bank Kherson
What was the point then, any idea? Were they expecting a Ukrainian crossing downstream, so they've flooded it out?

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:06 am

TimW wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:00 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:44 am
They did that when they retreated from right-bank Kherson
What was the point then, any idea? Were they expecting a Ukrainian crossing downstream, so they've flooded it out?
I mean Ukrainian forces had been slowly developing positions in the Dnipro delta that might have facilitated a crossing. The dam itself, though the bridge over the lock gates had been blown, might have offered Ukrainian engineers a head start on a crossing for vehicles. But also we need to consider spite and terrorising the Ukrainian populace as motives too.

User avatar
lpm
Junior Mod
Posts: 5944
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:12 am

If the Thames was damned at the Thames Barrier in east London... and a reservoir stretched back along the Thames... and didn't just reach Oxford but went all the way to Gloucester on the Severn... then it would be the equivalent of the Kakhovka Reservoir.
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 5276
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:18 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:06 am
TimW wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:00 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:44 am
They did that when they retreated from right-bank Kherson
What was the point then, any idea? Were they expecting a Ukrainian crossing downstream, so they've flooded it out?
I mean Ukrainian forces had been slowly developing positions in the Dnipro delta that might have facilitated a crossing. The dam itself, though the bridge over the lock gates had been blown, might have offered Ukrainian engineers a head start on a crossing for vehicles. But also we need to consider spite and terrorising the Ukrainian populace as motives too.
Exactly.

More pressure on the Ukrainian government to deal with a far larger internal refugee crisis and damage to the country
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7056
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:29 am

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:57 am
Grumble wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:34 am
Well sh.t, the Russians clearly think the offensive is starting or they wouldn’t have blown up the Nova Kakhovka dam.
The dam is the source for the canal that feeds water to the Crimea, so they’ve just made life a lot harder for themselves.
True, but if they're desperate they may see Crimea as being lost to Ukraine anyway if they don't do something.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7056
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 06, 2023 8:33 am

Eyewitnesses told us that there was a deafening explosion from #Kakhovka in the early morning, with sky turned to white and windows breaking as far as 80 km away.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... 9672347650

Assuming that's true there's no chance that the dam failed by accident due to it having sustained battle damage, was overfilled and hadn't been maintained.

User avatar
TimW
Catbabel
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:27 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:16 am

As luck would have it, reservoirs along the North Crimean Canal are mostly full, so any shallowing of the canal shouldn't be a problem.
(https://ria-ru.translate.goog/20230606/ ... r_pto=wapp)

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1413
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:20 am

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:44 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:53 am
The BBC is reporting Russia has won a glorious victory and has destroyed the Ukraine offensive.

Gerasimov himself led the Russian forces.

The BBC reports are based on information supplied by Russia so it is highly likely to be true.
In this new world information space, pick whose propaganda you want to believe. If you watch youtuber vids from Hindustan Times, you will see spectacular shots of Ukrainian positions being over run, Ukrainian tanks being blown up. Mearsheimer points out that in 2023, Russia has captured more territory than Ukraine.
Despite the best military hardware on the planet being supplied to Ukraine, it appears to be a stalemate.
I keep waiting for the 1917 scenario, but there is no Lenin waiting in the wings.

What makes it all so terrifying is that is that the Tsar didn't have a big red button.
Have a another one of these:

f.ck Off.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:40 am

The implications of this terrorist atrocity are immense, and include potential desertification of some of the most fertile soils in the world, which depended upon that dam for irrigation.

Russia is, and has been throughout this conflict, a threat - a deliberate threat - the world food supply. We should minimise that threat by sinking their f.cking Black Sea Fleet as quickly as is practical. Remove all restrictions on targetting of Storm Shadows, and supply as many as are needed to knock out the fleet in its bases at Sevastopol and Novorossiysk. While we're at it, enable strikes on Russian airbases and missile launch equipment - Iskanders are launched at Ukrainian civilians from within HIMARS range, but are protected by this ridiculous notion that Russian soil is somehow special.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7056
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:54 am

IAEA statement on the powerplant: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressre ... -governors

Key part:
There are a number of alternative sources of water.

A main one is the large cooling pond next to the site that by design is kept above the height of the reservoir. As the reactors have been shut down for many months it is estimated that this pond will be sufficient to provide water for cooling for some months. The Agency will confirm this very shortly.

It is therefore vital that this cooling pond remains intact. Nothing must be done to potentially undermine its integrity.

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2915
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:32 am

I bought iodine pills a while back. Go get some folks.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:45 am

While I'm sure we all know the Russian accusation that it was Ukraine that did it is a bare-faced and disgusting lie whose propagators should be forced to walk for deveral dozen metres straddling a length of barbed wire that's just a little bit too high to actually straddle, it's also just not possible.

They are claiming the Ukrainians did it with MLRS. That's warheads with a hundred kilogrammes or so of explosives at most. You can't destroy dams with that sort of firepower. For context, Upkeep, the bouncing bomb used in the Dambusters raid, used three tonnes of Torpex, and placed it against the surface of the dam beneath the water level so the water would focus the shock.

Post Reply