Blyatskrieg

[jimbob]

My understanding is that they are being trained on A10 simulators, not actual aeroplanes.

All A10 pilots train on sims to a point of high familiarity before getting into the real thing, because there are no 2 seat A10s. Yes there is benefit in training combat sorties in the real thing, but with a starting point being experienced ground attack pilots from other types, sim training with A10s should achieve a high degree of readiness from the moment they see a real one.

From how I read that article, it looks like the entirety of the scheme is simulator training and isn't backed by the US. So no training in actual Warthogs and no Warthogs being delivered.

ETA: from my understanding, the simulator in question can happily do F-16s as well, which the Ukrainians have asked for as opposed to A-10s.

F16s would be far better. Even in its role, only the US of NATO countries thought they could afford to spend on such an aircraft

[EACLucifer]

Six more NASAMS in the latest American military aid package, for a total of eight pledged. The NASAMS is a very modern system, and a modern concept. Instead of designing a dedicated SAM, it is a ground launcher for AMRAAM air-to-air missiles.

Though they will take time to arrive, as they do need to be manufactured, it is a significant pledge. This will effectively ensure Ukraine can continue to deny Russians access to their airspace even if they run out of their existing air defence systems.

I've seen it claimed that the announced items in the package don't add up to the announced value. That might mean undeclared items too. We can hope.

It also represents a commitment to support Ukraine in the longer term. The frontline's not really moved in two months. This war will not end soon, most likely, so it's time to stop being so damn short term, so this is a welcome development.

If we'd started training them in the first couple of weeks, we could have had Ukrainian troops trained to western standards on western tanks and IFVs. If I've read it correctly - don't count on that - the two years it takes to train an RAF fighter pilot involves about six months to convert to the Typhoon. So we're now at the point where, had we acted in february, Ukrainian pilots would be able to go into action on western jets. And had substantial aid been given in november or december, when it was clear the invasion was planned, maybe the invasion would never have happened.

[EACLucifer]

Antonivsky bridge is still standing, but the damage looks nasty. It's steel and concrete construction relying on steel for tensional strength. Crater it deeply enough, and you sever those steel cables, it loses most of its strength. Likewise, if the vertical web between the flanges of the I-sections (this description of a section works better with serif fonts ), then instead of the top flanges taking compression strength and the bottom compressional, the top flange takes it all as a bending load instead, something that goes badly with heavy loads and concrete.

The Russians are building a bridge out of barges, which isn't operational yet. I can't see it staying operational for long, though they seem to be trying to hide it behind the bridge to make targetting it harder. Nonetheless, it is in range of conventional artillery, and shells fired for maximum range come down pretty steeply.

Credit/Source in image.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like Ukrainian public communications are switching from pushing for MLRS and Artillery to pushing for aircraft. A number of European and American fast jets were mentioned. Slow ground attack planes weren't.

[EACLucifer]

Six more NASAMS in the latest American military aid package, for a total of eight pledged. The NASAMS is a very modern system, and a modern concept. Instead of designing a dedicated SAM, it is a ground launcher for AMRAAM air-to-air missiles.

Though they will take time to arrive, as they do need to be manufactured, it is a significant pledge. This will effectively ensure Ukraine can continue to deny Russians access to their airspace even if they run out of their existing air defence systems.

I've seen it claimed that the announced items in the package don't add up to the announced value. That might mean undeclared items too. We can hope.

Contract for the NASAMS is apparently $182 million. Also $400 million for yet more ammunition for M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS. The rest of the deal is good, necessary stuff, including more counter-battery radars and lots of artillery shells, but I can't see it adding up to $2.4 billion. Hopefully there was some decent undeclared stuff.

Brimstone appears to still be getting use, though this one appears to have locked onto someone's armpit. As a beyond LOS weapon, Brimstone's not as conducive to filming what happens, but it's also almost certain far fewer have been supplied than weapons like Javelins.

[Grumble]

That’s one way to apply deodorant

[EACLucifer]

Something to keep an eye on in the next few weeks/months is Russia's third army corps. It's a new formation, raised by recruiting volunteer battalions, and so far it doesn't seem to have reached true corp strength. However, it does have better kit than a lot of units already in Ukraine, including T-90s and BMP-3s, and AK-12 rifles*

It is unclear how Russia has trained there raw recruits. The usual way Russia trains recruits is sending them to units, but they can't do that, as those units are in combat, and many of the most experienced soldiers, the ones who would train new recruits, are dead or maimed. Pretty much every source I've seen talks about poor training and discipline, including drunkennes, and much worse - things like raping teenagers in towns they are based in. If that's how they behave in Russia, there's very real fears as to how they will behave in Ukraine.

Whether they will be militarily effective also remains to be seen. They really don't seem to have had much training, but they do have top end kit. It looks like they are moving towards going into action. They appear to be heading to Taganrog, which would suggest they are most likely heading for the Donbas or for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, though heading on from their to Kherson Oblast can't be ruled out.

*Though whether an AK-12 is actually better than an AK-74 isn't entirely clear.

[Woodchopper]

Yes, one to look at. Though as you say having updated equipment is one thing but training is another.

Here’s a thread: https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status ... nYI8W1YsvA

[Woodchopper]

Yes, one to look at. Though as you say having updated equipment is one thing but training is another.

Here’s a thread: https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status ... nYI8W1YsvA

Also worth noting that this isn’t a corps in the NATO sense of 3-4 divisions. It’s a collection of battalions which are probably under strength.

[EACLucifer]

Yes, one to look at. Though as you say having updated equipment is one thing but training is another.

Here’s a thread: https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status ... nYI8W1YsvA

Also worth noting that this isn’t a corps in the NATO sense of 3-4 divisions. It’s a collection of battalions which are probably under strength.

Yes. They appear to have missed their recruiting targets for this formation. However, while not at corps strength, they do appear to be planning to use it as a single formation, though that isn't certain to be the case.

Rob Lee discusses it more on this thread.

In terms of training, they've had maybe a month with some units having more and some having less. In some footage, they don't all appear to be particularly fit. They recruited by offering quite substantial amounts of money, and it seems that some of the people they attracted are desperate - alcoholics and similar - though it would be dangerous to assume that's all of them. Even if it's just some, though, having untrustworthy people in your formation does not do cohesion and morale any good.

Compared to the new infantry Ukraine's training, they've probably had a bit less training, but there's another factor, too; who is training them? Ukraine is benefitting from Western assistance with quite a lot of countries now training Ukrainian troops in the UK. Given the way the Russian system for training works, the people who should have been training this new formation got sent to Ukraine, and either remain there, or left via ambulance or zinc-lined coffin.

Then there's the question of who will command them. The Russian system is supposed to see mobilised troops sent to skeleton units with officers and NCOs waiting for them. That's clearly not the case with this "corps".

So on the one hand, Russia is planning to throw in a formation of newly raised, mostly green troops, and those that aren't green have come out of retirement, with no experienced officers and discipline so poor they are already committing serious crimes against their own civilians, give them Russia's best quality equipment, and throw them into Ukraine in a single formation.

It's certainly a gamble, and I'm not seeing any analyst that thinks this isn't quite a desperate move, and, as Rob Lee points out, a move that will be very hard to repeat, too.

On the other hand, there's quite a lot of them, and they are being given good kit. Though unlikely to achieve a war-winning breakthrough, they could overcome the deadlock where they are deployed, if only temporarily.

However, there's one more factor. Where's their artillery? They don't seem to have the amount of artillery attached that we'd expect from a Russian force. It could be we've just missed spotting it, or it hasn't been assigned yet, but given how poor Russian communications are, they would want this new formation to have organic fire support, because calling it in from another formation exposes Russia's C3 problems.

[jimbob]

Yes, one to look at. Though as you say having updated equipment is one thing but training is another.

Here’s a thread: https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status ... nYI8W1YsvA

Also worth noting that this isn’t a corps in the NATO sense of 3-4 divisions. It’s a collection of battalions which are probably under strength.

Yes. They appear to have missed their recruiting targets for this formation. However, while not at corps strength, they do appear to be planning to use it as a single formation, though that isn't certain to be the case.

Rob Lee discusses it more on this thread.

In terms of training, they've had maybe a month with some units having more and some having less. In some footage, they don't all appear to be particularly fit. They recruited by offering quite substantial amounts of money, and it seems that some of the people they attracted are desperate - alcoholics and similar - though it would be dangerous to assume that's all of them. Even if it's just some, though, having untrustworthy people in your formation does not do cohesion and morale any good.

Compared to the new infantry Ukraine's training, they've probably had a bit less training, but there's another factor, too; who is training them? Ukraine is benefitting from Western assistance with quite a lot of countries now training Ukrainian troops in the UK. Given the way the Russian system for training works, the people who should have been training this new formation got sent to Ukraine, and either remain there, or left via ambulance or zinc-lined coffin.

Then there's the question of who will command them. The Russian system is supposed to see mobilised troops sent to skeleton units with officers and NCOs waiting for them. That's clearly not the case with this "corps".

So on the one hand, Russia is planning to throw in a formation of newly raised, mostly green troops, and those that aren't green have come out of retirement, with no experienced officers and discipline so poor they are already committing serious crimes against their own civilians, give them Russia's best quality equipment, and throw them into Ukraine in a single formation.

It's certainly a gamble, and I'm not seeing any analyst that thinks this isn't quite a desperate move, and, as Rob Lee points out, a move that will be very hard to repeat, too.

On the other hand, there's quite a lot of them, and they are being given good kit. Though unlikely to achieve a war-winning breakthrough, they could overcome the deadlock where they are deployed, if only temporarily.

However, there's one more factor. Where's their artillery? They don't seem to have the amount of artillery attached that we'd expect from a Russian force. It could be we've just missed spotting it, or it hasn't been assigned yet, but given how poor Russian communications are, they would want this new formation to have organic fire support, because calling it in from another formation exposes Russia's C3 problems.

Wasn't that also a problem with the Wehrmacht in WWII where the greenest troops got the newest kit?

[Woodchopper]

Ukrainians have had some success breaking through Russian proxy defences near Kherson

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... AHfly-x0KA

Let's wait and see how significant it is.

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainians have had some success breaking through Russian proxy defences near Kherson

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... AHfly-x0KA

Let's wait and see how significant it is.

General consensus is that Ukraine won't be aiming for a large armoured breakout. That said, there are several positions in that rough area they've been chipping away at for a while. It wouldn't be too shocking to see one taken by coup de main at this point.

The Ukrainian approach has generally been cautious. If they are moving to a more aggressive approach, I hope they have done everything possible to minimise risk of failure.

[EACLucifer]

Pro-Russian sources also reporting Ukrainians are pushing Russians back around Kherson. Mentions of Russian paratroopers fleeing.

[EACLucifer]

Also a lot of reports of long range fire. Antonivsky Bridge, a ferry point, several known Russian positions/troop concentrations around Kherson all appear to have been hit this morning.

[EACLucifer]

So on the one hand, Russia is planning to throw in a formation of newly raised, mostly green troops, and those that aren't green have come out of retirement, with no experienced officers and discipline so poor they are already committing serious crimes against their own civilians, give them Russia's best quality equipment, and throw them into Ukraine in a single formation.

It's certainly a gamble, and I'm not seeing any analyst that thinks this isn't quite a desperate move, and, as Rob Lee points out, a move that will be very hard to repeat, too.

Wasn't that also a problem with the Wehrmacht in WWII where the greenest troops got the newest kit?

I've certainly seen that claimed.

It's easy to see how it happens. Troops in the field already have experience on existing kit, so to give the most experienced troops the newest kit, you have to do two lots of training. In the case of the Germans in WWII, that meant troops already had experience on, say, PzKW IVs, so they had a choice of giving their experienced troops PzKW VIs*, which meant two sets of training had to be done, experienced troops on PzKW VIs and green troops on PzKW IVs, or they could train the green troops on the PzKW VIs and only have to do one lot of training, minimise the need to pull units off the line for training, move them long distances etc.

It's also something we've seen to an extent with Ukraine, but in this case, it was well justified. With the sudden influx of Javelins and NLAWS, ZSU sent a lot of them to newly raised TDF units and similar. That's because their existing units already had an anti-tank missile, the Stugna-P. The Stugna-P is command guided, so it takes a lot of skill to operate, but it is extremely capable. Giving the experienced troops Javelins would have meant there was nobody available to operate the Stugna-Ps, but giving Javelins to newer troops meant both could be fielded.

In the case of the Russian 3rd "Corps", it's harder to justify. Though the kit they are getting - BMP-3s and T-90s and T-90Ms - is better than a lot of the kit on the frontline - older model T-80s and T-72s and even T-62s - it isn't new kit coming into service, and in some cases units trained on BMP-2s and BMP-3s are converting to BMP-1s and MT-LBs due to losses even as this new "Corps" gets BMP-3s, and newer model T-72s star in the Army Games Tank Biathlon, which did at least provide much entertainment as various nations** friendly to Russia provided crews to miss all the targets, crash into each other, wander off ignoring the course, run over trackside fixtures etc.

And since the last time I posted about them, I've seen yet more reports of this "Corps", still in Russia, roaming the streets drunkenly harassing and trying to prey on women and girls. Their behaviour and lack of discipline at this point suggests the pertinent question is not even whether they are fit to be soldiers, but whether they are fit to be called human beings.

A lot of weapons have their main use as a threat to limit options.

Just as infantry squares were good against cavalry but very vulnerable to artillery. Drones and HARM (even more than HIMARS and HARM) would also fit into this.

Absolutely. In fact drones and anti-radiation missiles, or conventional missiles and anti-radiation missiles are perfect examples of combined arms, the counter to each increasing vulnerability to the other. It makes more sense these days to use these as examples when teaching combined arms rather than the classical examples, as modern cadets have much more need to know about anti-radiation missiles than they do about cataphracts and horse archers.


*AKA the Tiger Tank.

**Including unrecognised ones

[Woodchopper]

Suggestion that it may be the prelude to a major offensive in Kherson: https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1 ... AHfly-x0KA

But lets wait and see.

[Woodchopper]

A lot of weapons have their main use as a threat to limit options.

Just as infantry squares were good against cavalry but very vulnerable to artillery. Drones and HARM (even more than HIMARS and HARM) would also fit into this.

Absolutely. In fact drones and anti-radiation missiles, or conventional missiles and anti-radiation missiles are perfect examples of combined arms, the counter to each increasing vulnerability to the other. It makes more sense these days to use these as examples when teaching combined arms rather than the classical examples, as modern cadets have much more need to know about anti-radiation missiles than they do about cataphracts and horse archers.

Back to the A10. It might have a role as a deterrent to a future Russian attempt at an offensive. Lots of armoured vehicles out in the open and trying to attack would be what the A10 was built for. Just let Russia know that they are somewhere in Ukraine and that might affect planning. If so it might have an effect without firing a shot. Bit like an airbourne fleet in being.

[Woodchopper]

Strelkov […] says Ukraine is "surrounding and routing our forces east of Kherson between the Dnipro and Ingulets rivers."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15 ... GhZuSa-K8A

Might be lying though.

[EACLucifer]

Strelkov […] says Ukraine is "surrounding and routing our forces east of Kherson between the Dnipro and Ingulets rivers."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15 ... GhZuSa-K8A

Might be lying though.

Igor Girkin loves to be defeatist, as he thinks the current Russian government isn't doing it properly. I suspect he wants to be the one in charge, and is thus disparaging those currently in the role.

He is also racist, and this affects his commentary regarding Sergei Shoigu (ie referring to him as a reindeer herder, etc).

So one would expect a negative spin from him, a sort of "see, see, I told you this would happen. Couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery this lot". That said, there seem to be a lot of different sources agreeing on a Ukrainian breakthrough in the vicinity of Sukhoy Stavok, possibly a breakout from their bridgehead east of the Inhulets. The size and scope of this, and whether or not it is sustainable, remain to be seen.

[EACLucifer]

One thing to bear in mind regarding counteroffensives is that Ukraine have rendered the supply situation on the west bank of the Dnipro very difficult for the Russians. Increasing the tempo of operations in that area thus forces them to deplete their ammunition and other resources faster. It could be that a counter-offensive is geared towards forcing the Russians west of the Dnipro to expend their materiel reserves more quickly, before Russian forces can get something in place to improve their supply lines.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like Ukrainian strikes have just targetted the pontoon ferry alongside the Antonivsky Bridge.

[jimbob]

Looks like Ukrainian strikes have just targetted the pontoon ferry alongside the Antonivsky Bridge.

That is not the most surprising thing you have posted.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like Ukrainian strikes have just targetted the pontoon ferry alongside the Antonivsky Bridge.

That is not the most surprising thing you have posted.

Indeed. I'm not sure what the most surprising thing I posted is, tbh.

In other news, possibly, there's talk of the Americans sending more military aid by ship than by air. It's from an Arestovych briefing, and he's not the most reliable source, but if true, it could mean much heavier equipment - possibly even IFVs like the Bradley and tanks, though this is speculation on my part.

[Woodchopper]

Looks like Ukrainian strikes have just targetted the pontoon ferry alongside the Antonivsky Bridge.

That is not the most surprising thing you have posted.

Indeed. I'm not sure what the most surprising thing I posted is, tbh.

In other news, possibly, there's talk of the Americans sending more military aid by ship than by air. It's from an Arestovych briefing, and he's not the most reliable source, but if true, it could mean much heavier equipment - possibly even IFVs like the Bradley and tanks, though this is speculation on my part.

Ammunition, lots of ammunition.