Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:02 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:14 pm
Meanwhile, it looks like AGM-88 HARM has been supplied for Ukraine's airforce.

This is a very effective missile, and will, over time, give the Ukrainian airforce more breathing room, as it is designed to not just destroy but also effectively suppress enemy air defences.

ETA: Just spotted this from last night. Melitopol, so 60+km behind the lines. Not an M31 GMLRS - their motors burn earlier in proceedings - could be a HARM in action?
We've got Americans confirming supply of anti-radiation missiles and Russians showing of fragments of AGM-88 HARM, an example of the breed (and indeed what the third three letters of the name stand for). We've also got a sudden uptick of claims of destroyed S-300s and other Russian SAMs, which would make sense. For those unfamiliar, anti-radiation missiles are designed to lock onto enemy radars, and can also lock onto other emissive equipment like electronic warfare systems.

This can be countered by switching the radar off and fleeing, however this still suppresses the radar, allowing other aircraft to then operate. This can also be exploited - during the NATO interventions in the Balkan wars, radar operators soon learned that the code word for launching an AGM-88 HARM was "Magnum". NATO pilots then found that a false call of "Magnum" could sometimes get the radar operators to switch off their systems. Naturally missile designers sought to counter this. The now retired British ALARM would fly up high and deploy a parachute and loiter, ready to strike if the radar came back on. Other approaches included just trying to remember where the radar was and get there fast. That's the approach used with later versions of AGM-88 HARM, which have GPS and inertial guidance modes too.

Theoretically, this could also allow them to be used as cruise missiles, too. HARM's range is over a hundred kilometres. I mention this specifically, as last night it looks like there was a strike well behind the lines. The target was Novooleksiivka in souther Kherson Oblast, and secondaries confirm it was an ammunition depot. There is another possibility, too. The cutting edge ER-GMLRS. This rocket is compatible with M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS, and fits six to a pod, like the M31s already in use. However, this doesn't seem that likely. ER-GMLRS first test flew last March. It's not set to be in service until next year, and isn't yet in full rate production.

Whatever happened with Novooleksiivka, AGM-88 HARM is a big deal, and several details have meaningful implications of their own. Firstly, we only found out about it after it arrived in service. That's good, and I'm hoping for more pleasant surprises in that regard. Secondly, it is an in-service western weapon apparently integrated onto an existing Ukrainian plane. It can be done. With a little time and effort, it ought to be possible to do this for other munitions, too. Brimstone should be doable, and Hellfire likewise, the latter being more suited to helicopters and slower planes like the common Su-25 "Grach"/"Frogfoot". Dogfight missiles like the venerable but extremely effective AIM-9 Sidewinder also ought to be possible. Additionally, ground attack munitions like JDAMs and Small Diameter Bombs might be the easiest to fit of the lot, and the latter in particular allows for long range, hard hitting strikes against Russian positions and infrastructure targets like bridges.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:04 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:44 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:52 pm
In other news, Ukraine have apparently received and used the highly capable anti-radiation missile AGM-88 HARM There's speculation about a ground launcher being used and that is certainly possible, but it's also worth noting that HARM, which is designed to home in on and destroy enemy radars, is apparently easier to integrate onto new launching platforms than many munitions, and could potentially even be helicopter launched, if an ungainly data-link setup can't be avoided.
HARM has to be the best-named missile in this war. It underpromises and overdelivers. Hellfire and Brimstone are just too corny. Honourable mention for the Ukrainian Tochka[-U] which means "full stop" or "basta".
In the Gulf War, an F4 mistook the radar controlling a B52's tail guns for an Iraqi SAM site and launched an AGM-88 at it. The B52 survived with minor damage, and was promptly named "In HARM's Way"

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:26 pm

Thread on how they likely used the AGM-88 on a Warsaw Pact warplane.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865

In brief, they likely used it in a mode where the thing is fired at a preset GPS coordinate where it either picks up a signal and homes in, otherwise it just strikes the location pre-programmed. This can be done with relatively little integration to the planes on-board control systems, unlike the other 2 modes of operation. Speculation that the RAF or US are providing GPS coords of RU targets via their "Rivet Joint" electronics signal snooping aircraft. The Russians have provided photo-evidence that at least one missile used was the 'D' variant, which as that GPS capability.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:32 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:26 pm
Thread on how they likely used the AGM-88 on a Warsaw Pact warplane.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865

In brief, they likely used it in a mode where the thing is fired at a preset GPS coordinate where it either picks up a signal and homes in, otherwise it just strikes the location pre-programmed. This can be done with relatively little integration to the planes on-board control systems, unlike the other 2 modes of operation. Speculation that the RAF or US are providing GPS coords of RU targets via their "Rivet Joint" electronics signal snooping aircraft. The Russians have provided photo-evidence that at least one missile used was the 'D' variant, which as that GPS capability.
Would this also then allow it to be used as just a cruise missile? There's just been (this morning, not sure of exact time but possibly in the last hour) major explosions at Novofederovka Airbase, in occupied Crimea. Couple of hundred kilometres from the front line, but coastal, meaning an air launched missile could have come from the Black Sea. Coupled with the earlier Novooleksiivka strike also beyond M31 range from the front line, it looks like Ukraine's just got an upgrade to their strike capacity, and it could be through use of HARM, but it could be something else, too.

ETA: Re: HARM integration. They are often used with an electronics pod too. Would that support more conventional use of them if that were also fitted?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:46 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:32 pm
ETA: Re: HARM integration. They are often used with an electronics pod too. Would that support more conventional use of them if that were also fitted?
Only if the electronics pod operated independently of the aircraft or the pilot, which I doubt it would.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:55 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:46 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:32 pm
ETA: Re: HARM integration. They are often used with an electronics pod too. Would that support more conventional use of them if that were also fitted?
Only if the electronics pod operated independently of the aircraft or the pilot, which I doubt it would.
The pod is the AN/ASQ-213 HARM Targeting Systems, apparently its job is to provide ranges to radars, to allow F16s to perform missions previously performed by modified F4 Phantoms.

I was wondering if enough work has been done to allow that pod to provide the information in a readable format to allow the AGM-88 to be targetted. One possibility for the aircraft carrying this is the Su-24 "Fencer". That would mean the tasks of interpreting sensors and feeding coordinates to the missile would be handled by the weapons officer, not the pilot.

It's worth remembering that the US has been sending advanced weapons to Ukraine since before the 2022 escalation, and been sending/thinking of sending heavy arms for some months. While that isn't enough time to do very major work, it is enough time to come up with workarounds, like, for example, the British fitment of Brimstone - another missile that needs to talk to a targetting computer prior to launch - to technicals. It is also important to remember that wartime crash development can happen quite fast compared to peacetime development.

It's quite likely that targetting data is coming from western patrol aircraft, but I wouldn't completely rule out other approaches.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:57 pm

Whatever hit Novofederovka hit it damn hard, in multiple places.

Given its an airbase, that could be fuel stores going up.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:06 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:32 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:26 pm
Thread on how they likely used the AGM-88 on a Warsaw Pact warplane.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865

In brief, they likely used it in a mode where the thing is fired at a preset GPS coordinate where it either picks up a signal and homes in, otherwise it just strikes the location pre-programmed. This can be done with relatively little integration to the planes on-board control systems, unlike the other 2 modes of operation. Speculation that the RAF or US are providing GPS coords of RU targets via their "Rivet Joint" electronics signal snooping aircraft. The Russians have provided photo-evidence that at least one missile used was the 'D' variant, which as that GPS capability.
Would this also then allow it to be used as just a cruise missile? There's just been (this morning, not sure of exact time but possibly in the last hour) major explosions at Novofederovka Airbase, in occupied Crimea. Couple of hundred kilometres from the front line, but coastal, meaning an air launched missile could have come from the Black Sea. Coupled with the earlier Novooleksiivka strike also beyond M31 range from the front line, it looks like Ukraine's just got an upgrade to their strike capacity, and it could be through use of HARM, but it could be something else, too.

ETA: Re: HARM integration. They are often used with an electronics pod too. Would that support more conventional use of them if that were also fitted?
The AGM-88 has a range of about 100 miles when fired from a high altitude jet going flat out in the right direction. So not likely used in that case unless the UKR planes were deep in RU held territory.

From my limited understanding, the purpose of the other 2 modes of operation (self protect, target of opportunity) along with the ECM pod, are there to enable a plane to fly in contested airspace and take out threats. Lots of integration with onboard electronics and computers are required for both the missile and pod. Used in GPS mode it's a fire and forget cruise missile that will spank a radiation source at the pre-programmed coordinate. Simpler to integrate, all you need to do is bolt it the the airframe appropriately and wire up the thing to fire. Program the GPS on the ground before flight. Less flexible than the other modes, but will still scare the bejesus out of BUK operators.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:49 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:06 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:32 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:26 pm
Thread on how they likely used the AGM-88 on a Warsaw Pact warplane.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865

In brief, they likely used it in a mode where the thing is fired at a preset GPS coordinate where it either picks up a signal and homes in, otherwise it just strikes the location pre-programmed. This can be done with relatively little integration to the planes on-board control systems, unlike the other 2 modes of operation. Speculation that the RAF or US are providing GPS coords of RU targets via their "Rivet Joint" electronics signal snooping aircraft. The Russians have provided photo-evidence that at least one missile used was the 'D' variant, which as that GPS capability.
Would this also then allow it to be used as just a cruise missile? There's just been (this morning, not sure of exact time but possibly in the last hour) major explosions at Novofederovka Airbase, in occupied Crimea. Couple of hundred kilometres from the front line, but coastal, meaning an air launched missile could have come from the Black Sea. Coupled with the earlier Novooleksiivka strike also beyond M31 range from the front line, it looks like Ukraine's just got an upgrade to their strike capacity, and it could be through use of HARM, but it could be something else, too.

ETA: Re: HARM integration. They are often used with an electronics pod too. Would that support more conventional use of them if that were also fitted?
The AGM-88 has a range of about 100 miles when fired from a high altitude jet going flat out in the right direction. So not likely used in that case unless the UKR planes were deep in RU held territory.
Or well out over the Black Sea, something that is potentially a lot safer now the Black Sea Fleet has been scared away from the coast by Neptune and Harpoon. Also, following apparent HARM attacks on SAM sites, Russian operators may be being cautious with how much they have their machines switched on. Also a closer approach below the radar for most of the approach is possible.

But it's also very possible it was something else. Whatever's doing it, something is hitting Russian positions well behind the lines, and apparently with accuracy.
From my limited understanding, the purpose of the other 2 modes of operation (self protect, target of opportunity) along with the ECM pod, are there to enable a plane to fly in contested airspace and take out threats. Lots of integration with onboard electronics and computers are required for both the missile and pod. Used in GPS mode it's a fire and forget cruise missile that will spank a radiation source at the pre-programmed coordinate. Simpler to integrate, all you need to do is bolt it the the airframe appropriately and wire up the thing to fire. Program the GPS on the ground before flight. Less flexible than the other modes, but will still scare the bejesus out of BUK operators.
I think we're talking past each other slightly, which is easily done. I wasn't thinking of the different modes, just when and where the missile is told the coordinates to head for. An improvised system allowing that to be done in the air is potentially possible especially for a two-seater, where it doesn't need to be as slick or convenient to operate. As for locating the radars, that could well be western intel, but throughout this war analysts have constantly underestimated Ukrainian capabilities, and radars aren't always that hard to locate anyway. Out of Ukraine's four types of jet in service, it's only the Su-25 that will be completely blind in this regard.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:54 pm

Russia's response to the strikes in Crimea is panic. On the one hand they are saying it was an accident handling fuel. On another hand, they are vowing revenge. After too much meddling with old Soviet radiation experiments, they have grown a third hand to scramble jets in the direction of Kherson.

If this was launched from either form of western MLRS, or indeed if this was a Tochka-U, the launchers will have left the area already. Hopefully some of those jets run into Ukraine's air defences, or their own trigger-happy but apparently incompetent air defences bag another couple of their own jets.



Oh, and if this claim is remotely true, then this isn't an isolated pair of strikes, but the start of something.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:17 pm

Other possibilities for Novofederovka;

It's possible that Neptune could get enough of a radar return to home in on fuel storage tanks. I don't think this is that likely, but I nothing about the quality of Neptune's intertial/GPS guidance at all. Unlikely, as, if nothing else, I don't think Ukraine has much in the way of Neptune stocks left, or ever did.

It's also possible that the USA has done what we all wanted, and sent a surprise delivery of MGM-140 ATACMS

Whatever it is, though, it's going to cause conniptions in Russian high command. Suddenly another large tranche of terrain is no longer safe for depots or aircraft - remember the helicopters burned on the ground at Chornobaivka - and there's yet more places that will need air defence.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:44 pm

Satellite photos from this morning indicate more than twenty Russian jets on site at Novofederovka in occupied Crimea.

Witnesses reported a dozen explosions in the space of a minute

There's also clearly secondaries, like those in the footage I just linked. Previously hits on ammo storage have distributed ammunition all over the place, some of which then subsequently explodes. Given the identified ammo stores where rather near where the dozen Su-24s and ten Su-30SMs were located, there's a real possibility this is the worst day for the Russian airforce, at least in terms of airframe loss, in a very long time.

There's a five kilometre exclusion zone round the airfield now, suggesting a risk of further explosions.

The New York Times, meanwhile, reported a Ukrainian official saying that they wouldn't disclose what weapon was used, but that it was entirely of Ukrainian manufacture.

There isn't anything I'm aware of that fits the bill for this. I don't know if AGM-88 HARM has allowed enough suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD) to allow more direct attacks to be made, but I'd be surprised if Ukrainian aircraft were flying anywhere in sight of Russian military airfields in occupied Crimea yet.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:29 pm

Nah it's all a big nothing
Russia's defence ministry later said ammunition was detonated, but this has not been independently verified.

The ministry said there was no "fire impact" on the ammunition storage area, Russia's state-run Ria news agency reports.
/BBC
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:43 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:29 pm
Nah it's all a big nothing
Russia's defence ministry later said ammunition was detonated, but this has not been independently verified.

The ministry said there was no "fire impact" on the ammunition storage area, Russia's state-run Ria news agency reports.
/BBC
lol. lmao.

Interestingly, Ukraine did have a couple of SRBMs in development; Hrim (sometimes written as Grim or Grom) and Sapsan. Neither was ready for deployment as of February 2022, and it would be a surprise to see them ready now. However, the former is possibly linked to Saudi investments, its all very murky. Perhaps the de-facto anti-Iran alliance forming in SWANA has realised just how close Russia and Iran are?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 09, 2022 5:38 pm

The New York Times, meanwhile, reported a Ukrainian official saying that they wouldn't disclose what weapon was used, but that it was entirely of Ukrainian manufacture.
A land attack modification of the Neptune?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:03 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 5:38 pm
The New York Times, meanwhile, reported a Ukrainian official saying that they wouldn't disclose what weapon was used, but that it was entirely of Ukrainian manufacture.
A land attack modification of the Neptune?
I've not found much about Neptune's guidance, save that it is terminally radar guided (as one would expect) and that it uses inertial guidance to get to where a target is likely to be found. That's similar, in some ways, to how the S300 is used, which has mid-course updates and terminal radar homing, though designed to target aircraft not ships. S300s are abysmally inaccurate in the ground attack role.

Either Neptune has really, really damn good inertial guidance, or its got something else going on. While people pointing to the size of the explosions to indicate warhead size are probably wrong, as those blasts were probably secondaries, the simultaneous nature of the blasts indicates they probably occured directly as the point the hits came in, with two impacts causing the two really big blasts. That wouldn't indicate the weapon's power, but its accuracy. To get to that degree of accuracy, Neptune would need GPS guidance, or it would need laser guidance, but that would mean someone being in line of sight to designate the target, or of course a totally different type of radar, like that used with missiles like Brimstone. It's not impossible for Neptune to have had GPS all along, and it's nearly six months since the escalation, and longer since it appeared inevitable.

Perhaps Neptune got an upgrade?

Alternatively, perhaps some examples of Hrim or Sapsan were completed after all? Perhaps someone worked out how to replace the usual cluster bomblets carried by the Tochka-U with a guided payload - it's not impossible, after all*. Perhaps they did the same, but with Harpoon instead of Neptune, and launched it from over the Black Sea.

We really are guessing with very little information here at the moment. It's quite likely, based on the rather confused Russian response so far, that so are they. Though of course curious, its better if we don't find out until they do, so I'd expect limited information, at least until the Russians start angrily brandishing fragments of stuff, which they won't have access too until the fires go out, which, with jet fuel fires, could be days away.


*as an aside, if anyone were willing to ship the bomblets used by BONUS or SMArt155 directly to Ukraine, they could be drone deployed or delivered en masse with a Tochka-U or with Uragan/Smerch MLRS rockets to tremendous effect against vehicle concentrations.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:31 pm

Another possibility is a low flying and slow drone. Back in June one was filmed hitting a Russian refinery in Rostov. I guess it must have flown a couple of hundred kilometres. The Yemeni Houtis have hit targets in Saudi Arabia with drones which probably had a range of a few hundred kilometres.

Which of course leads to the point that a one way drone is actually a missile. But drone seems more appropriate as that’s what it’ll have originally designed to be.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:37 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:31 pm
Another possibility is a low flying and slow drone. Back in June one was filmed hitting a Russian refinery in Rostov. I guess it must have flown a couple of hundred kilometres. The Yemeni Houtis have hit targets in Saudi Arabia with drones which probably had a range of a few hundred kilometres.

Which of course leads to the point that a one way drone is actually a missile. But drone seems more appropriate as that’s what it’ll have originally designed to be.
If a Tu-143 derived weapon, not even that slow. It's possible that such a weapon can now get through if Russians are being more careful about radar usage due to HARM, but at present that's pure speculation.

However, a drone doesn't really account for the witnesses reporting twelve explosions (and in a different source "at least ten") within a minute, with secondaries following. That suggests either multiple weapons, or a weapon that deploys multiple sub-munitions (but fewer of them, one presumes from that description, than an unmodified Tochka-U does)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:31 pm

More footage.

Whatever it was, two of them came in at once, and after the place was already burning. Given how similar the blasts are, it's not impossible that's the warhead. If that is the warhead, then it's a damn big warhead. Hrim is half a tonne, most missiles are smaller. That's looking more like the half a tonne kind of size. I don't think those blasts are secondaries, not happening simultaneously like that.

On the ground, here's a destroyed Sukhoi-24. I wouldn't be too surprised to find the others in similar condition, given the likely location of the blasts and the position of the aircraft on the satellite view.

Psychologically Ukrainians - especially displaced Crimeans - are delighted, while Russians who had been holidaying on occupied territory are fleeing, queueing to get back to Russia, and the responses from Russian government and propagandists are confused. This could well be psychologically as big an impact as the sinking of Moskva.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:25 pm

Suggestion here that the two strikes hit two munitions depots. If they did that the secondary explosions would probably have destroyed some of the parked aircraft.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:25 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:25 pm
Suggestion here that the two strikes hit two munitions depots. If they did that the secondary explosions would probably have destroyed some of the parked aircraft.
https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... RsjyYbQI’m

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:57 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:25 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:25 pm
Suggestion here that the two strikes hit two munitions depots. If they did that the secondary explosions would probably have destroyed some of the parked aircraft.
https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... RsjyYbQI’m
Four explosions in total, by the look of it. The first one, then a double one, then another after that, followed by secondaries, though witnesses reported more than that. I'm not up to geolocating them right now, but there's a lot of people better at it than me already working on it anyway.

Munitions storage makes sense as a target. Unlike aircraft, they don't move fast. Obvious concerns that secondaries may have affected civilians if munitions stored near civilian houses, however, I wouldn't be too surprised if it turned out those houses didn't have civilians living in them any more due to Russian fears of saboteurs etc.

This bot, which detects flashes, triggered twice at 12:22 GMT In general, the bot is extremely prone to false positives, and misses a lot of actual explosions. However, it does give us an idea of when the attack was.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:23 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:25 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:25 pm
Suggestion here that the two strikes hit two munitions depots. If they did that the secondary explosions would probably have destroyed some of the parked aircraft.
https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... RsjyYbQI’m

Parked cars on the edge of the airfield didn't do too well.


Geolocated by IntelCrab to parking within the airfield, but near the edge.

Can't imagine aircraft nearer the centre of the blast would have done too well, not given the force required to throw whatever impaled that car such a distance.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:34 pm

There were several dozen aircraft parked there this morning. That’s a big chunk of their operational airframes gone. They are meant to have quite a lot more (low hundreds), but how many of those are actually flyable and have not been stripped for copper like their tanks?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:42 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:31 pm
More footage.

Whatever it was, two of them came in at once, and after the place was already burning...
I had got that footage from Reddit and stepped frame by frame: The left hand explosion is fractionally ahead but one curious thing is a single frame later there's a diffuse but extremely large yellow flash, at the centre of which the second explosion develops.

I think the first explosion ignited a cloud of fuel vapour which set off the second. Clearly there were previous explosions as there were already palls of both pale and dark grey smoke. I wonder if fuel spilled but not ignited by a previous strike got touched off.

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