Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Oct 20, 2023 7:49 pm

Looks like members of the supposedly elite 1st Guards Tank Regiment are being used as Storm Z cannon fodder infantry.


Check out this thread at Thread Reader App. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1715 ... 44334.html
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Oct 20, 2023 8:46 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 5:16 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 5:11 am
Geoconfirmed puts the total helicopter destroyed or damaged at 21!
https://x.com/geoconfirmed/status/17151 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
When the Ukrainians shelled Chornobaivka with conventional MLRS for the second time, the Russians evacuated a number of helicopters. Left behind were a number of airframes about which nothing could be deduced by satellite, and a number of blazing wrecks. Those wrecks were duly counted up and added to the Oryx list, while the other helicopters left behind were not.

Some time later, when the Ukrainians first began to push a little towards Kherson, those apparently intact helicopters were evacuated - by towing them through Kherson by road.

The principle inflicter of damage of the M74 cluster bomblet - of which 950 are carried by the early M39 ATACMS missile - is not fire, but fragmentation and the fragments go a lot further than people think. If a helicopter is surrounded by the scars of impacting bomblets, chances are it looks like a Swiss cheese up close.
Supposed photo of a Ka-52 from Luhansk illustrating your point

https://x.com/auto_glam/status/1715364806415548714?s=20
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 21, 2023 12:08 am

Russian losses around Avdiivka look to be really, really high still.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:25 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2023 12:08 am
Russian losses around Avdiivka look to be really, really high still.
Looks like they have men and machines to waste so they’re wasting them.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Oct 21, 2023 11:57 am

Grumble wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:25 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2023 12:08 am
Russian losses around Avdiivka look to be really, really high still.
Looks like they have men and machines to waste so they’re wasting them.
By sending tankers as storm infantry
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 21, 2023 1:08 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:25 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2023 12:08 am
Russian losses around Avdiivka look to be really, really high still.
Looks like they have men and machines to waste so they’re wasting them.
Maybe. The big question since February 2022 has been how much equipment Russia has available.

At least in the area of the attacks it looks like reserves may not be unlimited. A week ago Russia was attacking with tanks, IFVs and APCs. Now it looks like they are just using IFVs and APCs. Could be a change of strategy but another explanation is that they don’t have tanks to spare in that area.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Oct 21, 2023 1:18 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2023 1:08 pm
Grumble wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:25 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2023 12:08 am
Russian losses around Avdiivka look to be really, really high still.
Looks like they have men and machines to waste so they’re wasting them.
Maybe. The big question since February 2022 has been how much equipment Russia has available.

At least in the area of the attacks it looks like reserves may not be unlimited. A week ago Russia was attacking with tanks, IFVs and APCs. Now it looks like they are just using IFVs and APCs. Could be a change of strategy but another explanation is that they don’t have tanks to spare in that area.
See also this link from my post a few posts above:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1715 ... 44334.html

If Russia using tankers from the supposedly-elite 1st Guards Tank Regiment, as storm-z cannon fodder infantry, presumably there's a reason why they're not in tanks. Where they must really be more effective.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 22, 2023 6:52 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 7:56 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 5:16 am
The principle inflicter of damage of the M74 cluster bomblet - of which 950 are carried by the early M39 ATACMS missile - is not fire, but fragmentation and the fragments go a lot further than people think. If a helicopter is surrounded by the scars of impacting bomblets, chances are it looks like a Swiss cheese up close.
Yes, certainly, and in general helicopters are much more vulnerable than fixed wing aircraft.
I presume you mean because they have to be nearer the frontline, as Ka-52s and other attack helicopters are quite tough.

But yes, helicopters are, due to the fundamental physics of how they work, slow. Less than 200mph is typical, while even subsonic jets like Su-25s go three times that fast. Pushing them back to the range of the M39 ATACMS used already puts half an hour on their response times, and uses up a third of their combat radius, in turn shortening the section of frontline they can cover. If M39A1 ATACMS are supplied, that will push them back two thirds of their combat radius, and put an hour on their response times.
Russia is going to have to either move its helicopters out of ATACMS range or disperse them. Both will hamper their operational effectiveness.
Indeed. Would have been great if this had been done before the start of the counteroffensive, though. There really was no technical reason not to. Ka-52s inflicted a lot of damage around Robotyne, that was preventable.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Oct 24, 2023 6:33 am

Another thread on the conditions that Russian troops are claiming they're fighting under

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1716 ... 956044.htm
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Tue Oct 24, 2023 11:35 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2023 8:24 am
Looks like naval drones made it to Novorossiysk.

Russian side claims all drones were destroyed. Well yes, they are suicide drones, aren't they. Looks like one of them was destroyed alongside a landing ship. That's the third Ropucha Ukraine's damaged or destroyed, with the other two hit by a Tochka-U and damaged by ammunition they were transporting last year in Berdyansk.

I presume the ship is repairable if she's only listing and in port, but it won't necessarily be quick or economic.
TASS report that the external damage has been repaired, and they sound slightly miffed that there was no official confirmation that the ship had been hit in the first place.
Repairs of Russian amphibious assault ship practically over — source
It is noted that work is currently underway to restore some internal compartments and premises

MOSCOW, October 24. /TASS/. The repairs of the Northern Fleet’s large amphibious assault ship Olenegorsky Gornyak have been practically completed, a source in Crimean defense circles told TASS on Tuesday.

"External repairs on the large amphibious assault ship Olenegorsky Gornyak have been completed and work is currently underway to restore some internal compartments and premises," the source said.

TASS has no official confirmation of this information yet.

Russia’s Defense Ministry reported earlier that overnight to August 4 Russian combat ships destroyed two Ukrainian naval drones that attempted to attack the Novorossiysk naval base. Novorossiysk Mayor Andrey Kravchenko specified that the attack had been repulsed by the crews of the combat ships Olenegorsky Gornyak and Suvorovets.
https://tass.com/defense/1695953

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 30, 2023 8:27 am

Report of a large Ukrainian counter attack near Avdiivka. Makes sense if the Russian forces have been degraded in pointless attacks.

Good to see what is happening: https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1718 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Mon Oct 30, 2023 8:33 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2023 8:27 am
Report of a large Ukrainian counter attack near Avdiivka. Makes sense if the Russian forces have been degraded in pointless attacks.

Good to see what is happening: https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1718 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
That's great news and quite a relief. It also makes sense that the area the Russians have recently taken hasn't been turned into a giant minefield like the rest of the front line, so the western training and tactics the Ukrainians learned suddenly becomes useful.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Oct 30, 2023 9:08 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2023 8:27 am
Report of a large Ukrainian counter attack near Avdiivka. Makes sense if the Russian forces have been degraded in pointless attacks.

Good to see what is happening: https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1718 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
That account is generally okayish but sometimes goes a bit too optimistic, unfortunately. So I wouldn't rely on him
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 30, 2023 9:12 am

jimbob wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2023 9:08 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 30, 2023 8:27 am
Report of a large Ukrainian counter attack near Avdiivka. Makes sense if the Russian forces have been degraded in pointless attacks.

Good to see what is happening: https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1718 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
That account is generally okayish but sometimes goes a bit too optimistic, unfortunately. So I wouldn't rely on him
The Russians have definitely been degraded in disorganised attacks - reportedly the unit that was meant to go in first to clear the mines didn't go in, but all the followup units went in anyway and were trapped in minefields and torn apart by artillery - but I'll wait for confirmation from a more reliable source re: a Ukrainian counterattack.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 02, 2023 4:56 pm

Russians attacking Vuhledar. Again. Not content with throwing away masses of lives and armoured vehicles there last year, and not content with throwing away masses of lives and armoured vehicles in failed attacks against Avdiivka, they have once again attacked Vuhledar, and it's gone as well as last time - so far eighteen burning armoured vehicles counted, with commensurate personnel losses to be presumed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:56 am

I wonder how much this will keep going over the winter... I can't seeing either side letting up.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Fri Nov 03, 2023 9:00 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:56 am
I wonder how much this will keep going over the winter... I can't seeing either side letting up.
I can see them running out of ammo
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Nov 04, 2023 12:47 pm

Grumble wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2023 9:00 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:56 am
I wonder how much this will keep going over the winter... I can't seeing either side letting up.
I can see them running out of ammo
Probably not, especially after they are getting supplies from North Korea. Though the quality won’t be so good.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sat Nov 04, 2023 2:46 pm

They may run out of barrels before they run out of shells. Then again, they could get some from NK.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Sat Nov 04, 2023 3:16 pm

bjn wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2023 2:46 pm
They may run out of barrels before they run out of shells. Then again, they could get some from NK.
Would you trust your life to a barrel made in North Korea and then inspected, shipped and installed by Russians?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sat Nov 04, 2023 5:37 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2023 3:16 pm
bjn wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2023 2:46 pm
They may run out of barrels before they run out of shells. Then again, they could get some from NK.
Would you trust your life to a barrel made in North Korea and then inspected, shipped and installed by Russians?
Hell no, but I probably wouldn’t have a choice in the matter.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by shpalman » Sat Nov 04, 2023 6:18 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2023 3:16 pm
bjn wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2023 2:46 pm
They may run out of barrels before they run out of shells. Then again, they could get some from NK.
Would you trust your life to a barrel made in North Korea and then inspected, shipped and installed by Russians?
Which end of it would you rather be on?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:04 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2023 6:18 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2023 3:16 pm
bjn wrote:
Sat Nov 04, 2023 2:46 pm
They may run out of barrels before they run out of shells. Then again, they could get some from NK.
Would you trust your life to a barrel made in North Korea and then inspected, shipped and installed by Russians?
Which end of it would you rather be on?
I'm honestly not sure. Particularly with North Korean ammo as well.

But overall, you might fire just a bit slower to give you a bit more time get some distance, and fewer shots to survive.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Allo V Psycho » Sun Nov 05, 2023 1:14 pm

Russian Karakurt-class missile corvette 'Askold' damaged or destroyed in Kerch by Storm Shadow

https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/ ... maged-ker/

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:47 pm

Allo V Psycho wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2023 1:14 pm
Russian Karakurt-class missile corvette 'Askold' damaged or destroyed in Kerch by Storm Shadow

https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/ ... maged-ker/
Doesn't look like a very happy ship right now.

Image

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