Blyatskrieg

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
User avatar
Martin Y
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3069
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:08 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Thu Feb 01, 2024 2:35 pm

It's the Jeune École strategy finally coming good after two centuries thanks to drone tech. Maybe also thanks to Russia being less than the pinnacle of competence, as small boats attacking big ships is not a novel concept, and warships have had fearsome close-in weapons for decades (to defend against incoming missiles admittedly but still...).

IvanV
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2585
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 11:12 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by IvanV » Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:37 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 12:59 pm
Drone technology, particularly Ukraine's naval drones has reached quite a level - Russian Missile Corvette sunk

I note that what's been happening in Ukraine at a national military level is starting to percolate down to smaller groups/insurgents around the world.
Were you thinking of the Houthis?

Allo V Psycho
Catbabel
Posts: 729
Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:18 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Allo V Psycho » Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:49 pm

yes, it looked as it the corvette was swarmed. The large explosion might have been one of the anti-ship missiles going up, in which case I would expect severe casualties among the crew. Slightly puzzled that in the approach to the stern, the multi-barrelled Gatling types didn't seem to be firing - there is some defensive fire, but not the stream of lead I would have expected from two close-range weapons of that kind. Perhaps an early hit took out power on board.

FlammableFlower
Dorkwood
Posts: 1507
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Feb 01, 2024 11:22 pm

As pointed out on Twitter, in terms of tonnage, Ukraine has now sunk 20% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

FlammableFlower
Dorkwood
Posts: 1507
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Feb 01, 2024 11:23 pm

IvanV wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:37 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 12:59 pm
Drone technology, particularly Ukraine's naval drones has reached quite a level - Russian Missile Corvette sunk

I note that what's been happening in Ukraine at a national military level is starting to percolate down to smaller groups/insurgents around the world.
Were you thinking of the Houthis?
Pretty much.

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 5242
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Feb 02, 2024 3:09 am

Allo V Psycho wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:49 pm
yes, it looked as it the corvette was swarmed. The large explosion might have been one of the anti-ship missiles going up, in which case I would expect severe casualties among the crew. Slightly puzzled that in the approach to the stern, the multi-barrelled Gatling types didn't seem to be firing - there is some defensive fire, but not the stream of lead I would have expected from two close-range weapons of that kind. Perhaps an early hit took out power on board.
I wonder how much more engineering effort it would take to have them as platforms for torpedo launchers so the final 1000m or whatever is less prone to being stopped by a ship's CWIS.

Or indeed as a platform for other systems. I can imagine that an anti-tank missile hit on a docked submarine could force long repairs to the pressure hull, for example.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2893
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:26 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 3:09 am
Allo V Psycho wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:49 pm
yes, it looked as it the corvette was swarmed. The large explosion might have been one of the anti-ship missiles going up, in which case I would expect severe casualties among the crew. Slightly puzzled that in the approach to the stern, the multi-barrelled Gatling types didn't seem to be firing - there is some defensive fire, but not the stream of lead I would have expected from two close-range weapons of that kind. Perhaps an early hit took out power on board.
I wonder how much more engineering effort it would take to have them as platforms for torpedo launchers so the final 1000m or whatever is less prone to being stopped by a ship's CWIS.

Or indeed as a platform for other systems. I can imagine that an anti-tank missile hit on a docked submarine could force long repairs to the pressure hull, for example.
Those drones can hit speeds of over 70km/h, though torpedos can go faster, 180km/h for the non super cavitating ones. However fast torpedos are large and your drone will need to be much bigger to carry them, making them more visible and much more expensive. The current drones are sort of, but not quite, long range remote controlled torpedoes. Probably better to spend the money on making them go faster on final attack runs than creating a new class of ‘carrier drone’, especially as they seem to be working pretty well as it is. Strap a rocket motor to them or something.

User avatar
TopBadger
Catbabel
Posts: 763
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:26 am

Or keep the complexity down and leave them as they are - since they're clearly getting through after all.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 2544
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:34 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:38 pm
Capital ships are f.cked unless they can defend themselves against this. I expect sea based drones are much harder to detect, and pack a much bigger punch.
It was a 500-ton corvette, which even with the shrinkage of the size of warships in the guided missile era can't really be called a capital ship. I suspect this might not work quite so well against an aircraft carrier with an escort group. (Of course, Russia only has one aircraft carrier and it's more or less permanently on fire.)
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
dyqik
Princess POW
Posts: 7408
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:36 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:34 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:38 pm
Capital ships are f.cked unless they can defend themselves against this. I expect sea based drones are much harder to detect, and pack a much bigger punch.
It was a 500-ton corvette, which even with the shrinkage of the size of warships in the guided missile era can't really be called a capital ship. I suspect this might not work quite so well against an aircraft carrier with an escort group. (Of course, Russia only has one aircraft carrier and it's more or less permanently on fire.)
The drones warheads are big enough to seriously damage capital ships, and obviously for higher value targets, you would probably allocate many more of them to swarm defenses.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7024
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:56 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 3:09 am
Allo V Psycho wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:49 pm
yes, it looked as it the corvette was swarmed. The large explosion might have been one of the anti-ship missiles going up, in which case I would expect severe casualties among the crew. Slightly puzzled that in the approach to the stern, the multi-barrelled Gatling types didn't seem to be firing - there is some defensive fire, but not the stream of lead I would have expected from two close-range weapons of that kind. Perhaps an early hit took out power on board.
I wonder how much more engineering effort it would take to have them as platforms for torpedo launchers so the final 1000m or whatever is less prone to being stopped by a ship's CWIS.

Or indeed as a platform for other systems. I can imagine that an anti-tank missile hit on a docked submarine could force long repairs to the pressure hull, for example.
The CIWS is another key factor. At least on NATO vessels the CIWS can hit sea skimming missiles. So a surface drone should be possible to hit given that it is travelling much more slowly, albeit with a redesign including new sensors. But it looks like the Russian ship was just using manually fired guns.

As has been pointed out a very long range torpedo (eg 100s of km) or a torpedo firing drone would get round a CIWS. Lets wait and see how long it takes.

User avatar
dyqik
Princess POW
Posts: 7408
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:50 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:56 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 3:09 am
Allo V Psycho wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:49 pm
yes, it looked as it the corvette was swarmed. The large explosion might have been one of the anti-ship missiles going up, in which case I would expect severe casualties among the crew. Slightly puzzled that in the approach to the stern, the multi-barrelled Gatling types didn't seem to be firing - there is some defensive fire, but not the stream of lead I would have expected from two close-range weapons of that kind. Perhaps an early hit took out power on board.
I wonder how much more engineering effort it would take to have them as platforms for torpedo launchers so the final 1000m or whatever is less prone to being stopped by a ship's CWIS.

Or indeed as a platform for other systems. I can imagine that an anti-tank missile hit on a docked submarine could force long repairs to the pressure hull, for example.
The CIWS is another key factor. At least on NATO vessels the CIWS can hit sea skimming missiles. So a surface drone should be possible to hit given that it is travelling much more slowly, albeit with a redesign including new sensors. But it looks like the Russian ship was just using manually fired guns.

As has been pointed out a very long range torpedo (eg 100s of km) or a torpedo firing drone would get round a CIWS. Lets wait and see how long it takes.
Or even a surface drone that could dive and cover the last km or so underwater.

User avatar
bolo
Dorkwood
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:17 pm
Location: Washington DC

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bolo » Fri Feb 02, 2024 11:50 pm

IIRC they are controlled by satellite link, not autonomous. I imagine that wouldn't work too well if they went underwater.

User avatar
dyqik
Princess POW
Posts: 7408
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Sat Feb 03, 2024 2:00 am

bolo wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 11:50 pm
IIRC they are controlled by satellite link, not autonomous. I imagine that wouldn't work too well if they went underwater.
Adding autonomous terminal guidance for the last distance is much easier than making it fully autonomous.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 14, 2024 9:32 am

Then fall, Caesar

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2893
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Wed Feb 14, 2024 4:19 pm

For a country without a navy, Ukraine seems to have denied Russia freedom to operate in the western Black Sea, opened up sea lanes and is able to cause havoc for the Russians further afield. A much under appreciated aspect of what they have achieved in the war. It seems they've done most of that with mostly homegrown arms as well.

User avatar
Martin Y
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3069
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:08 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Wed Feb 14, 2024 4:55 pm

It's an ironic twist that the Russian navy, designed to fight a much larger opponent asymmetrically (with small guided missile cruisers to oppose huge aircraft carrier battle groups) is instead getting ground down in an asymmetric fight with the Navy of Grand Fewick.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:02 pm


User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7024
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:47 pm

It looks like Avdiivka has partially fallen. I don't know how long the rest can hold out. It appears that the main reason is lack of ammunition.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/175826 ... 32155?s=20

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7024
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:03 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:47 pm
It looks like Avdiivka has partially fallen. I don't know how long the rest can hold out. It appears that the main reason is lack of ammunition.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/175826 ... 32155?s=20
Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the centre and eastern parts of the former city.

User avatar
atled
Gray Pubic
Posts: 16
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:44 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by atled » Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:32 pm

Some good news from Ukraine amongst all the gloom, they have taken down 5 russian warplanes, two SU-35S and three SU-34s, in the last three days.


Sources are NoelReports on Mastodon https://mstdn.social/@noelreports and Tendar on Blueskyhttps://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social

User avatar
TopBadger
Catbabel
Posts: 763
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:47 am

I thought the figure was 6... when do the F16's arrive in the UAF?
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7024
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:41 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:47 am
I thought the figure was 6... when do the F16's arrive in the UAF?
Ukrainian pilots will start graduating from F-16 fighter jet training in May, the Air National Guard estimates.

The first four pilots are “pretty close” to the end of their training, Air National Guard director Lt. Gen. Michael Loh told reporters Tuesday at the Air & Space Forces Association Warfare Symposium.

The U.S. is training 12 Ukrainian pilots in fiscal 2024—all of whom are set to graduate between May and August, according to Arizona National Guard spokesperson Capt. Erin Hannigan.

But what the pilots do then depends on the broader Ukrainian F-16 effort and when the jets will actually arrive in Ukraine, Loh said. The U.S., which controls the export of the fighter jets, gave allies the green light to transfer F-16s to Ukraine in July.

[…]

The pilots are already “flying F-16s solo every day,” but the requirements for these pilots have changed and training is taking a bit longer because the pilots need to be able to operate a “full range of missions” beyond wartime scenarios, Loh said.

However, the U.S. won’t be able to keep this effort going and train more pilots beyond the first cohort if Congress doesn’t authorize more funding.

“Training cost is tuition-based and that funding is allocated prior to student arrival. Students currently enrolled are not expected to be impacted by funding issues. If additional pilots are needing to be trained, additional funding will be necessary,” Hannigan said.
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2024/ ... ay/394264/

The ‘broader Ukrainian F-16 effort’ refers to all the other human and physical infrastructure needed to keep the planes in the air and fighting effectively.

I assume that there will also be a minimum number needed to be flying in order to have a decent chance of mission success.

User avatar
TimW
Catbabel
Posts: 798
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:27 pm

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Tue Feb 20, 2024 4:46 pm

F-16 training is also taking place in Denmark and Romania.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7024
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:16 am


Six months after Ukrainian pilots tested the Swedish Gripen fighter jets, the aircraft’s vendor says government and industry movements are continuing to provide them to Kyiv in what could be a relatively quick transfer.
Stockholm has been touting the possibility of sending the Gripen JAS39 to Ukraine for several months now, but has made any decision on this contingent upon the country’s accession to NATO
https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... o-ukraine/

Post Reply