Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

The USA moved from not supplying ATACMS over escalation fears to pretending they were worried about stock levels.

And yes, pretending. They've got missiles spare for Morocco - forty of them - that's enough to knock down every part of the Kerch Bridge and sink anything in Sevastopol, even assuming fewer than half of them get through, and that's not a safe assumption given that ATACMS is a ballistic missile that comes down very steeply and very fast.

And while ATACMS isn't in production, the Precision Strike Missile, a replacement that renders it obsolescent, is coming into service this year. The USA does not need large stockpiles of ATACMS, but a few dozen could change the strategic situation and save thousands of Ukrainian lives, military and civilian.

This is what happens when people get their assessments desparately wrong but get to keep their jobs - supporting Ukraine with more than a relative handful of mostly obsolescent weapons would require those who got this wrong to admit that a change of direction was needed, and they are too f.cking pigheaded to do so.

Russia's not able to escalate. We know the Americans know that, because amongst the leaks was information showing that effectively the entirety of Russia's army is engaged in Ukraine. They've pulled troops from their NATO borders. They've walked back every so-called red line after its been crossed, not carried out a single one of their threats against the west. For those in the west - who are not at threat from Russia - to hold back aid from Ukrainians - who have been invaded by Russia - for fear of actions against their own states Russia neither has the ability nor evidently the will to carry out is cowardice.

[Woodchopper]

The USA moved from not supplying ATACMS over escalation fears to pretending they were worried about stock levels.

And yes, pretending. They've got missiles spare for Morocco - forty of them - that's enough to knock down every part of the Kerch Bridge and sink anything in Sevastopol, even assuming fewer than half of them get through, and that's not a safe assumption given that ATACMS is a ballistic missile that comes down very steeply and very fast.

And while ATACMS isn't in production, the Precision Strike Missile, a replacement that renders it obsolescent, is coming into service this year. The USA does not need large stockpiles of ATACMS, but a few dozen could change the strategic situation and save thousands of Ukrainian lives, military and civilian.

This is what happens when people get their assessments desparately wrong but get to keep their jobs - supporting Ukraine with more than a relative handful of mostly obsolescent weapons would require those who got this wrong to admit that a change of direction was needed, and they are too f.cking pigheaded to do so.

Russia's not able to escalate. We know the Americans know that, because amongst the leaks was information showing that effectively the entirety of Russia's army is engaged in Ukraine. They've pulled troops from their NATO borders. They've walked back every so-called red line after its been crossed, not carried out a single one of their threats against the west. For those in the west - who are not at threat from Russia - to hold back aid from Ukrainians - who have been invaded by Russia - for fear of actions against their own states Russia neither has the ability nor evidently the will to carry out is cowardice.

I agree that the US has made a policy decision not to supply Ukraine with ATACMS (because the administration is worried about escalation by Russia).

But the sale to Morocco appears to be one in which Department of Defense negotiated an export from US industry rather than a transfer from US armed forces stocks. The same would presumably go for recently announced ATACMS export orders to Poland, Estonia, Taiwan or Lithuania. The normal way such sales would be organized is that Lockheed Martin would manufacture the missiles to order and they will be exported when completed (likely in a few years time).

[EACLucifer]

The USA moved from not supplying ATACMS over escalation fears to pretending they were worried about stock levels.

And yes, pretending. They've got missiles spare for Morocco - forty of them - that's enough to knock down every part of the Kerch Bridge and sink anything in Sevastopol, even assuming fewer than half of them get through, and that's not a safe assumption given that ATACMS is a ballistic missile that comes down very steeply and very fast.

And while ATACMS isn't in production, the Precision Strike Missile, a replacement that renders it obsolescent, is coming into service this year. The USA does not need large stockpiles of ATACMS, but a few dozen could change the strategic situation and save thousands of Ukrainian lives, military and civilian.

This is what happens when people get their assessments desparately wrong but get to keep their jobs - supporting Ukraine with more than a relative handful of mostly obsolescent weapons would require those who got this wrong to admit that a change of direction was needed, and they are too f.cking pigheaded to do so.

Russia's not able to escalate. We know the Americans know that, because amongst the leaks was information showing that effectively the entirety of Russia's army is engaged in Ukraine. They've pulled troops from their NATO borders. They've walked back every so-called red line after its been crossed, not carried out a single one of their threats against the west. For those in the west - who are not at threat from Russia - to hold back aid from Ukrainians - who have been invaded by Russia - for fear of actions against their own states Russia neither has the ability nor evidently the will to carry out is cowardice.

I agree that the US has made a policy decision not to supply Ukraine with ATACMS (because the administration is worried about escalation by Russia).

But the sale to Morocco appears to be one in which Department of Defense negotiated an export from US industry rather than a transfer from US armed forces stocks. The same would presumably go for recently announced ATACMS export orders to Poland, Estonia, Taiwan or Lithuania. The normal way such sales would be organized is that Lockheed Martin would manufacture the missiles to order and they will be exported when completed (likely in a few years time).

Their most recent claims were that it was due to stocks, and that in part this was due to ATACMS not being in production. If ATACMS production can restart, it can backfill US stocks, too, or they can be backfilled with the PrSM, which, as mentioned, comes into service this year.

If they are instead obsessing over fears of escalation from a country that has committed their entire ground forces to an invasion that has ground to a standstill more than seven thousand (7000) kilometres and one (1) ocean away from their territory, then there are not words to express the contempt they deserve. A Ukrainian victory is needed, but they are not giving the support needed for the most decisive and cost effective actions to achieve that, namely the strategic isolation of Crimea and crippling of supply lines to occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia by destruction of the Kerch Straits bridge and destruction of shipping docking at Sevastopol and Berdyansk, which is achievable with a relatively modest supply of ATACMS and, unlike other weapons - such as the rather more advanced and air launched Storm Shadow the UK is commendably considering sending - there are no technical challenges involved, and Ukrainian forces already operate the relevant launchers.

I remember how long those bastards held back HIMARS. I remember the reports of how desperate the situation was in Severodonetsk given the Russian artillery advantage, and that Ukrainian political and military leaders were begging for a weapon to counter that advantage. I remember the b.llsh.t objections about training time and escalation and redlines and blah blah f.cking blah. I also remember that the Russians did the square root of f.ck all when it was provided, despite their earlier threats, and that it did largely neutralise their artillery advantage. If the Americans hadn't held that system back, it's quite likely that the front would have stabilised on the Siverskyy Donets and Lysychansk wouldn't have fallen.

American analysts, politicians and generals - many of whom got much of the course of the war desperately wrong and all but rolled out the red carpet for Russia by withdrawing ships from the Black Sea and troop trainers from Ukraine - sit in comfortable offices and disparage Ukraine's chances even as they hold back the equipment Ukraine needs, while Ukrainians fight a desperate street to street battle through the corpse of their own city even though they know that capture means torture and murder. Sullivan and Milley shouldn't just be fired, they should be forced to take the place of some of those courageous Ukrainians in the strategic and tactical environment they have allowed.

[Woodchopper]

The Council today adopted an assistance measure worth €1 billion under the European Peace Facility (EPF) to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This measure will allow the EU to reimburse member states for ammunition donated to Ukraine from existing stocks or from the reprioritisation of existing orders during the period 9 February to 31 May 2023.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/pres ... -facility/

[EACLucifer]

The Council today adopted an assistance measure worth €1 billion under the European Peace Facility (EPF) to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This measure will allow the EU to reimburse member states for ammunition donated to Ukraine from existing stocks or from the reprioritisation of existing orders during the period 9 February to 31 May 2023.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/pres ... -facility/

It's also been reported that South Korea's transferring half a million rounds to the USA. Though they can't be sent directly at present due to South Korea's own laws, they can be used to backfill. Backfilling and funding for backfilling via new production are great ways to get shells there now. There's also talk of a large shipment from Pakistan, though what's in it yet isn't clear. Pakistani made ammunition has been seen for some time in Ukrainian hands, the most popular theory is that Britain's buying it and sending it.

[EACLucifer]

"The T-55s will be pillboxes" "The T-55s will be for training" "The T-55s won't be gun tanks"...



If the reports are accurate, they're in Zaporizhzhia, and they are gun tanks. Hard to tell from the photo, but I can't see the faintest hint of applique reactive armour, either, whereas Ukrainians, on the other hand, put reactive armour on all their tanks, as pictured.

[EACLucifer]

For anyone wondering about the significance of modern, guided munitions, here's two tanks being destroyed by one artillery round.

The round in question releases a pair of submunitions that hunt for vehicles and attack them from above, in this case both munitions found Russian tanks.

[EACLucifer]

Ukraine have succeeded in equipping themselves with Trident.

Details in link.

[Grumble]

Ukraine have succeeded in equipping themselves with Trident.

Details in link.

Not sure I was expecting an armed RIB

Have you seen the thing about the stealth submarine?

[EACLucifer]

President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt, one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East and a major recipient of U.S. aid, recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a leaked U.S. intelligence document.

A portion of a top secret document, dated Feb. 17, summarizes purported conversations between Sisi and senior Egyptian military officials and also references plans to supply Russia with artillery rounds and gunpowder. In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret “to avoid problems with the West.”

The Washington Post obtained the document from a trove of images of classified files posted in February and March on Discord, a chat app popular with gamers. The document has not been previously reported.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ns-russia/

Given the billions of military aid Egypt gets from the US, this does appear to be epic levels of ingratitude.

Also highlights the extent to which countries don’t want Russia to lose.

Though one issue with the source is that we don’t know the reliability of the information.

Per the same paper, they shelved the plan and instead agreed to produce 152 and 155 ammunition for Ukraine, suggesting that American leverage is still achieving some things in the Middle East, even if the general trend is bad.

[Imrael]

Random twitter stuff that the Russians have accidentally bombed Belgorad.

[bjn]

Random twitter stuff that the Russians have accidentally bombed Belgorad.

It’s on the front page of the Graun now.

[EACLucifer]

Random twitter stuff that the Russians have accidentally bombed Belgorad.

They appear to have acknowledged it was them, too. The bomb - a very large glide bomb - was probably intended for Kharkiv.

The Russians are making effective use of glide bombs that can be released at standoff ranges. The USA has provided ER-JDAMs, which are a rather clunky glide bomb made by sticking a wing kit on an ordinary guided bomb, but don't seem to have offered or provided Small Diameter Bombs, which are purpose-designed glide bombs with better range and accuracy, even though it shouldn't be meaningfully harder to provide them than ER-JDAMs.

[EACLucifer]

Per the leaks, the Americans encouraged the Ukrainians to use DPICM - Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions - against Russian assault groups. Contrary to the Washington Post's reporting, these are not "a combination of artillery and surface to air missiles"* but good old fashioned cluster bombs.

Despite this - and despite the heavy use of cluster munitions by the Russians (example of a Russian RBK-500 ShOAB-0.5 pictured below) - the Americans still seem to be not providing M864 155mm cluster shells the Ukrainians are asking for.

Cluster bombs are horrible things, and I in general support banning them, however one must weigh up the consequences - increased UXO to clear up - with the horrible consequences of a Russian victory. It's partly that the M864 round is very effective, but it's also that the USA reportedly has over a million of the things slated for disposal, and Ukraine is facing a shell shortage.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuGnj_RXwAA ... ame=medium


*Uhm...what? WHAT?**

**I suppose DART rounds for the Oto-Melara 76mm, which is a bit like Starstreak dart fired from a gun might fit that description. To be honest, between that, Vulcano guided rounds and various airburst options I wonder why the gun in question, which is mostly used on Frigates and Corvettes and things isn't used for a combined SPAAG/SHORADS and light artillery role for land warfare.

[EACLucifer]

Mark Milley has mentioned Ukraine having nine new whole new brigades. If you are wondering if that's a lot of new brigades to train - properly train, by the look of things - and have on hand, the answer is yes.

[Woodchopper]

Ammunition shortages around Bakhmut

At the mortar unit on Bakhmut’s edge, soldiers under Melnikav’s command said the large number of munitions expended in the fight has forced shells to be rationed to six rounds a day, and resupply has become increasingly unreliable.

Palisa said ammunition shortages have repeatedly forced his troops inside Bakhmut to withdraw from their positions. “We don’t have enough rounds to engage them,” he said, “and I recognize we are paying with the lives of our soldiers.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... documents/

Could be that ammunition is being hoarded for the offensive.

[Woodchopper]

Latvia to send all its Stinger air defense systems to Ukraine – Defense Ministry

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/36 ... istry.html

They will be better used in Ukraine, but that tank is now empty.

[EACLucifer]

There's various bits of discussion about Ukrainians taking and holding positions on the left bank of the Dnipro near Kherson. This does appear to be the case, but context is needed.

The area in question is swampy. There's multiple rivers. Everything is accessed by boat. This represents a continuation of previous fighting over the islands in the Dnipro.

That said, it is significant. Firstly, it indicates that Ukraine is winning in that fighting over the Dnipro islands.

Secondly, solidly held positions in that area might not have any meaningful connection to solid ground and transport networks south of the Dnipro, but they could be a place to position light anti-aircraft systems and mortars or even light howitzers to help push the Russians further back.

Thirdly, holding the area in question opens the possibility of raiding further inland. The Russians could move to counter this, but in so doing that pulls forces away from the rest of the front just when a Ukrainian offensive is expected. However, if the Russians don't counter it, the possibility of seizing Oleshky comes into play. Without an intact bridge, it's unlikely that a breakout could occur, and a pontoon bridge across the Dnipro below the Kakhovsky Dam is extremely challenging+fragile, as discussed far upthread when the Russians were attempting one. However, a Ukrainian lodgement at Oleshky could tie down a lot of Russians during an offensive. Ukraine might actually attempt to cross the Dnipro as part of an offensive, and while through the swamps to Oleshky doesn't seem like an ideal route, it might be part of a plan to seize the Kakhovsky Dam. Though the crossings there are destroyed, rebuilding them is likely rather easier than any other approach to crossing the lower Dnipro.

So it's probably not a big deal, probably just a diversion and means to make it harder for the Russians to attack civilians in Kherson, however, it could develop into something, especially if the Russians ignore it, and if they don't, it serves a purpose by tying them down away from the Ukrainian's expected offensive.

[bjn]

Euromaiden is saying the UKR has started its counter offensive...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/20/ ... has-begun/

In our daily update from the front, we pair up with military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what’s happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Russians are evacuating civilians along the southern front, there are signs of imminent military action, and Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister admits the counteroffensive has started.

[EACLucifer]

Euromaiden is saying the UKR has started its counter offensive...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/20/ ... has-begun/

In our daily update from the front, we pair up with military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what’s happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Russians are evacuating civilians along the southern front, there are signs of imminent military action, and Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister admits the counteroffensive has started.

I mean yes and no. They've almost certainly started shaping operations, and probing Russian defences (including around the Dnipro, as I mentioned earlier), but the main thrust of the offensive has yet to come, and might not come for some time. They'll probably be some use of deliberate feints and demonstrations to misdirect the Russians, but there'll also be a period of probing for a weakness, and that will be slow and not necessarily obvious. If they find one and crack it open, though, then things will move very fast.

Ground conditions are still atrociously wet, including in Zaporizhzhia, which would normally be the driest part of the front, and recent footage has some leaves out, but not much. Conditions aren't ready for the main offensive yet, barring an unexpected opportunity, but one would expect the opening movements to be underway.

As far as I can tell, the Ukrainian military keeps almost everyone in the dark about their plans, including most of their politicians, so there may be elements of guesswork in statements like that, too.

[EACLucifer]

A Ukrainian naval drone made it into Sevastopol harbour and exploded. It's not clear from the footage if it reached a target, or was intercepted. A previous attack saw drones break into the harbour, but they were intercepted before they could sink anything.

These drones are remarkably good at sneaking up on Russian positions, sadly they seem to struggle with the very last bit of the attack. I do wonder if a drone that could carry a small torpedo (perhaps create a catamaran from two of the existing hulls and sling it between), or one armed with a rocket instead of just a warhead. Given how close these drones are getting, all a rocket-firing drone would need is an unguided rocket aimed ever so slightly upwards. I'm not sure of the warhead size of these naval drones, but it's pretty big. An S-25 - which is used in Ukrainian service - and a single use launch tube would weigh less than half a tonne and hit pretty hard against a ship.

Alternatively, it might be possible to make a (presumably, though not necessarily) one way drone boat armed with a launcher for some kind of longer ranged weapon, to enable attacks on Sevastopol and airbases in occupied Crimea, something like a single tube carrying an M31 guided rocket or something. f.ck knows, just speculating.

[Grumble]

Just seen a photo of a Gepard with digital camouflage. What’s the idea there then? To confuse digital imaging systems by making something appear pixelated?
https://twitter.com/aloha9916/status/16 ... 38560?s=20

[dyqik]

Just seen a photo of a Gepard with digital camouflage. What’s the idea there then? To confuse digital imaging systems by making something appear pixelated?
https://twitter.com/aloha9916/status/16 ... 38560?s=20

It's a quick way of painting a pattern that works pretty well at breaking up outlines to human vision.

Here "digital" just means "painted on rectilinear blocks". More usually it means "multiscale camouflage", which is fractal like and works at a variety of resolutions/distances.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-scale_camouflage

[jimbob]

SECRET WEAPON Putin’s ‘invisible’ T-14 robo-tanks that could ‘destroy cities in MINUTES’ reach Ukraine frontline ahead of new blitz

Said opera newsfeed (the Sun)

There's a reason why there are so few T14 tanks, and it's not because they are so brilliant that you only need 14.

[EACLucifer]

SECRET WEAPON Putin’s ‘invisible’ T-14 robo-tanks that could ‘destroy cities in MINUTES’ reach Ukraine frontline ahead of new blitz

Said opera newsfeed (the Sun)

There's a reason why there are so few T14 tanks, and it's not because they are so brilliant that you only need 14.

Invisible? What the actual f.ck. They aren't Ezekiel's Wheel from Command and Conquer. They are something people have been trying for decades - a tank with an uncrewed turret - but there's a reason such things have not generally been adopted, and that's that sensors are only just beginning to get to the point it actually makes sense.

T-14s have never entered serial production. There is no assembly line. There are a few dozen hand built examples, one of which notoriously and publically broke down. Even if they worked as intended, they'd still be vulnerable to any Western tank, other than perhaps a Leopard 1, and a lot of ATGMs.

They're supposed to have impressive armour, but everything on a tank - firepower, mobility, armour - is only worth what use the crew can get out of it, and for that they need to be able to see what they are doing.

I'm also wondering what the everloving f.ck the "can destroy cities in minutes" b.llsh.t is about. Cities are big, and tanks only carry so much ammunition. Russian tanks use smoothbores and don't even have any shells designed to destroy concrete, leaving them with a few dozen HE-Frag shells at best.