Blyatskrieg

[Bird on a Fire]

I know these things can take time. But I bet it San Francisco were trying to annexe Marin County they could get a shift on.

[Martin_B]

I know these things can take time. But I bet it San Francisco were trying to annexe Marin County they could get a shift on.

They're probably also not expecting surprise rocket attacks from Alcatraz. Probably.

[Woodchopper]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... M1BdC9V-Gg

The surviving Kerch road bridge concrete doesn't look very happy.

I hope it's similar with the rail bridge

Comment from someone who claims to know what they are talking about: https://twitter.com/per_aae/status/1580 ... IPInSjyS_w

AP now saying Russia wants the bridge repaired by July. This does not bode well for their occupation.

I think that’s the road bridge. I haven’t seen an estimate for the rail bridge.

[Woodchopper]

A war translated thread on the bridge and logistics:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... AsdH2D9s0Q

[Martin Y]

Consider how long it is taking San Franscisco to instal a net on the Golden Gate Bridge.

Okay, but when it's done they can capture Mothra. You don't want any mistakes.

[bjn]

Video of what looks like an ATACMs being launched in Ukraine.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenk ... 7885911042

[TopBadger]

How can you tell from that video?

I want Ukraine to get ATACMS, but havent seen any evidence of it in use yet.

[bjn]

Looks like a single large rocket, but I’m probably wrong.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like a single large rocket, but I’m probably wrong.

I think you are, I'm afraid. I think I can just about make out the six tubes at the back of each pod before the launch. It's certainly not a conclusive no, though. That said, if there are ATACMS in Ukraine, a tight lid is being kept on it. The only other possible evidence is a smidge of view of a pod under a panel and tarpaulin that might have the fraction of tube visible in the centre rather than the corners of the pod, and the use of the panel and tarpaulin is a possible hint as it isn't normal practise. That would mean it is unlikely that we'd get footage like this if they were there, and the US has mostly said they aren't sending them, really painting themselves quite unnecessarily into a corner in the process, though one official did seem to want to deflect rather than actually say no.

The easiest way to tell is if you can get a good view of the launch from the front. Any freeze frame with a clear view of the missile, or a clear view of the front of the pod after it's fired, will tell you. Before it's fired it is much harder, as the cover over an ATACMS is designed to look like the cover over a pod of standard rockets.

Unfortunately, the camera fails to focus on the launch, probably due to the film being a selfie and it focussing more on the soldier. Sound and flash don't work well as methods, as they are too dependent on conditions, camera and microphones. Speed doesn't work either; both missiles f.ck off pretty promptly.

For context, M30 and M31 GMLRS rockets are about the size of telephone poles. ATACMS are substantially fatter, but no longer.

[EACLucifer]

Intercepted call - note it contains lots of Russian swearing and some homophobia.

Soldiers calls artilleryman after artillery misses by half a kilometre. Amidst various insults is comment about anal beads, which I can't help but think might be a reference to the current controversy in the world of chess.

[bjn]

The Ukrainians are listening in on a cheap two way radio, I have the same make and similar model for paragliding. Which means then Russians are transmitting completely in the clear. There’s no signals security what so ever.

[EACLucifer]

The Ukrainians are listening in on a cheap two way radio, I have the same make and similar model for paragliding. Which means then Russians are transmitting completely in the clear. There’s no signals security what so ever.

Good radios are expensive. Every now and then the media in a western country will have a whinge about why military and in some cases other uniformed service radios are so damn expensive.

There's plenty of evidence out there as to why radios need the kind of features that cost money - integrated encryption and frequency hopping - as it isn't just this case. There's all kinds of radio intercepts from the war, including some where Ukrainians join in with uhm...tactical suggestions. It's also likely the cause of a lot of accurate Ukrainian targetting, including the schwacking of several Russian generals.

Then again, the press once raged about the cost of new five inch guns for warships, noting that they were, apparently, only as long as toothbrushes

[EACLucifer]

It's not just a change in rhetoric from Belarus. They appear to be quietly mobilising. Belarusian units are using the same tactical markings as Russian ones, which are moving within Belarus.

It's quite possible that these forces are effectively conducting a demonstration, to pin Ukrainian forces in the north, or even there to react should people rise against Lukashenko, but the idea that they might invade can't be ruled out. In February, the move to final assembly points came only just before the invasion.

A lot of analysis has focussed on why Lukashenko would be mad to agree to this, but there is another possibility to consider; that Lukashenko isn't making the decisions anymore, and has gone from propped up proxy to outright puppet. It would fit with reports that the Belarusian military is now effectively subordinate to the Russian chain of command.

The force grouping forming in Belarus - which appears to have a two triangle tactical mark - does not yet look ready to invade. However, if they were planning to re-invade through Belarus, this is what the earlier stages would look like.

[TopBadger]

What is the AA like up there for Belarus?

I'm assuming that any movements to something that looked like a final forming up point would be hit by Ukraine, possibly by the Air Force in addition to Artillery (AA depending).

[headshot]

Attempting to invade anytime before late-spring would be tactically insane wouldn’t it?

[TopBadger]

Attempting to invade anytime before late-spring would be tactically insane wouldn’t it?

FTFY - given what happened to the original larger Russian forces.

[El Pollo Diablo]

The Ukrainians are listening in on a cheap two way radio, I have the same make and similar model for paragliding. Which means then Russians are transmitting completely in the clear. There’s no signals security what so ever.

Good radios are expensive. Every now and then the media in a western country will have a whinge about why military and in some cases other uniformed service radios are so damn expensive.

There's plenty of evidence out there as to why radios need the kind of features that cost money - integrated encryption and frequency hopping - as it isn't just this case. There's all kinds of radio intercepts from the war, including some where Ukrainians join in with uhm...tactical suggestions. It's also likely the cause of a lot of accurate Ukrainian targetting, including the schwacking of several Russian generals.

Then again, the press once raged about the cost of new five inch guns for warships, noting that they were, apparently, only as long as toothbrushes

Fwiw, having listened to the Grenfell Tower Inquiry podcast, good radios are hard to find. The LFB didn't have them when the fire broke out, and the sh.tty useless radios they did have went a fair way to messing up their response on the night.

[Pishwish]

ChrisO's explanation of why the bridge repair will take so long. (Ships/barges needed for repair can't operate when the strait gets windy, foggy, or icy).

[wilsontown]

ChrisO's explanation of why the bridge repair will take so long. (Ships/barges needed for repair can't operate when the strait gets windy, foggy, or icy).

I'd also imagine that said ships and barges might occasionally explode for no apparent reason.

[Grumble]

ChrisO's explanation of why the bridge repair will take so long. (Ships/barges needed for repair can't operate when the strait gets windy, foggy, or icy).

I'd also imagine that said ships and barges might occasionally explode for no apparent reason.

Russia is full of careless smokers. And so are Ukrainian graveyards.

[Bird on a Fire]

I often wonder what happened to those sunflower seeds.

[EACLucifer]

Wagner group boasted of plans to put in a defensive line to stop Ukrainian advances. Aside from the confirmation that they recognise that Ukraine absolutely has the strategic initiative, there were several other details that stood out.

Firstly, there's a ludicrously vulnerable salient round Lysychansk.

Secondly, if that's the real plan, there's no intention of holding onto northern Luhansk. Aside from the liberation of this area being a significant amount of territory to liberate, it would mean that virtually none of occupied Ukraine, aside from southern Kherson and very southern Zaporizhzhia oblasts and Crimea, was out of GMLRS range. It would also be an ideal springboard for the liberation of Luhansk itself, and a way to flank Russian forces further south in the Donbas.

Also, so far it is much shorter than expected. Scroll down the thread for amusement

[EACLucifer]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1583764893614092289?cxt=HHwWgsDRufLx1PorAAAA

It looks like it is going for a gun kill. They lost a MiG-29 - pilot apparently ok but the airframe was valuable - in this sort of engagement when debris from the destroyed target got into the plane's engines.

Sidewinder would be a much easier integration on MiG-29s and Sukhoi-27s than HARM was. Just because they aren't trying to dogfight doesn't mean they don't need short range AAMs.

ETA: Another interception, this time of a Shahed-136. See the advantage the missile gives when it comes to not flying through debris compared to a forward-pointing cannon.

[bjn]

First link is borked.

I would have thought even a WWII era fighter would have been sufficient to catch up to and bring those drones down. Fast jets and AA missiles are overkill, a fast propeller plane with a canon should do it. A Supertucano or similar. Canon rounds are way cheaper than a Sidewinders and the drones are dumb with have no countermeasures.

[shpalman]

Ukrainian Sukhoi-27 chasing after a Russian cruise missile

First link is borked.

Link text and url were swapped around.