Blyatskrieg

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Martin Y
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:54 am

Yes, there's a substantial canal feeding water to Crimea and its head on the Dnieper is immediately above the hydro dam. Blow the dam and the canal runs dry. I understand that it provides irrigation water to make a large area of Crimea productive rather than supplying drinking water, and the Ukrainians had cut the supply after 2014. The Russians made a big deal of blowing up the gate blocking off the canal when they captured it.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:20 pm

Run f.ckers, run.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:28 pm

Snihurivka has been liberated

Rumours of more major Russian retreat, possibly abandonment of right-bank portion of Kherson oblast.

Meanwhile, Stremousov - the deputy "governor" of occupied Kherson - has died in a "car accident". Some claims that metadata indicates the announcement was recorded a couple of hours before the alleged accident occurred.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:35 pm

They're fleeing the entire sector. Leaving some recently-conscripted cannon fodder.

We'll see if they organise the withdrawal well, or if Ukraine can inflict even more damage as they flee.

The west bank was never sustainable. So this is actually bad news, it reduces Russian attrition and leaves them in comparative safety on the opposite side.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by JQH » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:54 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:35 pm

The west bank was never sustainable. So this is actually bad news, it reduces Russian attrition and leaves them in comparative safety on the opposite side.
So a case when it really was a strategic withdrawal to a defensible position/ to shorten the lines?
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:01 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:35 pm
They're fleeing the entire sector. Leaving some recently-conscripted cannon fodder.
Looks like it, doesn't it. I was sceptical of some of the reports at first, but some pretty reliable people are reporting Surovikin giving the order.
We'll see if they organise the withdrawal well, or if Ukraine can inflict even more damage as they flee.
There's only a few ways to cross. I'd expect them all to come under fire. Things like the rubble crossing over the Nova Kakhovka lock could become very difficult if queueing vehicles are struck and their wrecks block the crossing. It is completely correct for Ukraine to shoot them as they flee, of course. Retreating is not hors de combat. Blocking roads to trap heavy equipment is likely to be a goal.
The west bank was never sustainable. So this is actually bad news, it reduces Russian attrition and leaves them in comparative safety on the opposite side.
Yes and no. It's not that simple. The right bank - west and north bank in Kherson oblast - wasn't sustainable due to the attacks on the crossings, and the restriction of supplies from Crimea.

Retreat does spare them one of those constrictions in their lines of supply and communication, but it also allows Ukraine to set up their GMLRS launches in more advantageous positions. Previously, Russia had been able to rely on using places like Chaplynka as major bases, just outside GMLRS range*. If right-bank Kherson is liberated, not only Chaplynka, but both roads out of Crimea via the Isthmus of Perekop come into GMLRS range, though sadly the Chongar and Henichesk routes would be out of range.

The importance of these supply routes can be shown by the largely unsuccessful Russian attacks south of Donetsk - they are trying to create a buffer zone so they can bring supplies in by rail from the east. Without the Kerch Straits bridge fully functional, the Russian invasion of the south is in deep sh.t.

A shorter front line in general is something Russia would prefer, so shortening their line and anchoring part of the front on the lower Dnipro is something they want to do, and if war was just a fight, with no political considerations, they'd likely have done so ages ago. However, the politics matter. Ukraine liberating Kherson would be the first major city liberated. That would be a big victory, and exactly the kind of proof of success that wins more western backing, which is needed to liberate further areas.

And notably, western aid, as well as a massive increase in air defence aid, is building on what Ukraine's done well. For example, one technique Ukraine's been using is to use swarms of Humvees to hose down Russian positions with .50 cal machine gun fire, which very effectively suppresses the defenders, coupled sometimes with shoulder launched rockets used by the Humvee crews, followed up by infantry quickly dismounting and attacking - effectively a modern era version of light cavalry/dragoon tactics. In light of this, America's sent a full two hundred and fifty M1117 armoured cars - these would be ideal for the tactic, and can be mixed into the existing Humvee/Mastiff/ VAB/BTR/Pickup Truck formations, but have armour and a proper turret mounting not just a .50 cal to suppress infantry and destroy light vehicles, but a grenade-machine-gun, which has quite a bit more firepower, and on top of that, the turret comes with proper optics, and the gunner is protected, rather than poking out of the top like with a Humvee.

Victory in Kherson demonstrates that Ukraine can win. That it can defeat Russia. It shows not just that it can be done, but how it can be done, and what is needed to extend that to the rest of Ukraine. And it shows it to governments and populations in the west, and demonstrates it is worth continuing to send aid and stepping it up further.



*So f.ck you, overcautious self-deterring western governments. That would never have been viable with any longer range systems, not just MGM-140 ATACMS.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:01 pm

JQH wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:54 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:35 pm

The west bank was never sustainable. So this is actually bad news, it reduces Russian attrition and leaves them in comparative safety on the opposite side.
So a case when it really was a strategic withdrawal to a defensible position/ to shorten the lines?
They've been building more defences on the other side of the river, so yes.

But this isn't an unforced move. They've taken a kicking in Kherson. They are retreating because defeat is inevitable, and they want to minimise their losses.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:04 pm

Our assumption has always been that the military wanted to for months, Putin stopped them.

The death toll for Russian conscripts has been sky-high in this region the last few weeks.

There will now be the awful stage of discovering just how bad the torture and massacres have been.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:06 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:35 pm
They're fleeing the entire sector. Leaving some recently-conscripted cannon fodder.

We'll see if they organise the withdrawal well, or if Ukraine can inflict even more damage as they flee.

The west bank was never sustainable. So this is actually bad news, it reduces Russian attrition and leaves them in comparative safety on the opposite side.
Yes if it was just a case of ability to prosecute the war in isolation. But politics is important and an obvious Russian defeat has wider implications. Especially if idlt widens cracks in the groups manouvering for power after Putin
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:11 pm

lpm EAC, I agree.

Just one point, taking the right bank should also free Ukrainian troops. The Dnipro is a good defensive barrier and some of the troops and equipment fighting around Kherson could be redeployed near Orikhiv to threaten Melitopol.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:11 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:06 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:35 pm
They're fleeing the entire sector. Leaving some recently-conscripted cannon fodder.

We'll see if they organise the withdrawal well, or if Ukraine can inflict even more damage as they flee.

The west bank was never sustainable. So this is actually bad news, it reduces Russian attrition and leaves them in comparative safety on the opposite side.
Yes if it was just a case of ability to prosecute the war in isolation. But politics is important and an obvious Russian defeat has wider implications. Especially if idlt widens cracks in the groups manouvering for power after Putin
It probably also somewhat affects Russia's ability to procure weapons etc. overseas. Not even Iran wants to be facing even more ostracism for supporting a loser, and with its own internal issues, it may not be so keen to supply drones etc. Although this is more likely to have an effect on less ostracized states.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:13 pm

Well, yes, the ultimate end is when Putin carries out his top floor window manoeuvre. This humiliation must be a step along that path.

But it's a bit Battle of Normandy - would have felt bad that for weeks the Allies were only grinding forward, but it was actually good in that the correct German response should have been to retreat and reestablish counterattack formations. The more enemy men and equipment entering the death zone the better, whenever the battle is certain to be won.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:23 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:01 pm
America's sent a full two hundred and fifty M1117 armoured cars
Wow - you'd expect those to make a difference in tight fast moving fighting... they look quite a lot better than Pinkies.

Seems like nothing happens for ages and then a lot happens all at once...

ETA - with so much water around Kherson - would amphibious vehicles be helpful? Do Ukraine have any? Wondering how big a barrier the waterways are.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:37 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:23 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:01 pm
America's sent a full two hundred and fifty M1117 armoured cars
Wow - you'd expect those to make a difference in tight fast moving fighting... they look quite a lot better than Pinkies.

Seems like nothing happens for ages and then a lot happens all at once...

ETA - with so much water around Kherson - would amphibious vehicles be helpful? Do Ukraine have any? Wondering how big a barrier the waterways are.
Not an expert but a huge barrier, wide, fast flowing and with dams that might be subject to being demolished.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:44 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:23 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:01 pm
America's sent a full two hundred and fifty M1117 armoured cars
Wow - you'd expect those to make a difference in tight fast moving fighting... they look quite a lot better than Pinkies.

Seems like nothing happens for ages and then a lot happens all at once...

ETA - with so much water around Kherson - would amphibious vehicles be helpful? Do Ukraine have any? Wondering how big a barrier the waterways are.
Finland sent some Sisu XA-185 amphibious APCs. As you can imagine, Finland's military put a lot of effort into a good amphibious APC, given their terrain. America's pledged some armoured riverine boats.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:49 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:11 pm
lpm EAC, I agree.

Just one point, taking the right bank should also free Ukrainian troops. The Dnipro is a good defensive barrier and some of the troops and equipment fighting around Kherson could be redeployed near Orikhiv to threaten Melitopol.
Yes. It would free up a lot of battle-hardened troops and equipment, though given how long and hard-fought the Kherson campaign has been, it would be mad not to give them rest before throwing them into battle again.

It's also quite possible Ukraine will capture a decent amount of materiel. Last time the line moved fast in Kherson oblast, at least a couple of dozen tanks were abandoned, along with Uragans, SPGs, and other useful bits of equipment for Ukraine's growing military. Admittedly, most of the tanks were T-62s, but they can go to blocking roles near Transnistria/Belarus to free up 64s/72s/80s and even T-90s now.

And throughout this, more troops are coming out of training in the west, and the rate is increasing. Foreign military aid is also pretty decent. There's huge amounts of air defence pledged now, and the Americans and the Dutch went Dutch in procuring a batch of 90 T-72s. I'm not certain if these are upgraded ones already, or if they are going to be upgraded, or if its a bit of both, but by the time they arrive they'll have better engines and optics and electronics than the originals, and no doubt the Ukrainians will slather them in reactive armour blocks.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:09 pm

It's important to note that Ukrainian officials are still urging caution re: Kherson. Russian officials lie constantly, even in areas where it does not initially to make sense for them to do so.

So don't mark areas liberated until you've seen them liberated.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:29 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:09 pm
It's important to note that Ukrainian officials are still urging caution re: Kherson. Russian officials lie constantly, even in areas where it does not initially to make sense for them to do so.

So don't mark areas liberated until you've seen them liberated.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:31 pm

If the Russians have indeed pulled back from Kherson then do Ukrainian troops pivot to try to grab Nova Kakhovka to secure the dam and get a beachhead on right bank?

That said, there doesn't seem to be much of a road to there without having secured at least the outskirts of Kherson first.

It's a really tricky piece of terrain.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:40 am

So - lets assume for a moment that Russia has indeed pulled out of Kherson and now is only on the Crimean side* of the Dnipro. What is Ukraine's next move?

The Russians will be relying on the river to form part of their defensive line and pummel units that cross. I'd expect Ukraine would need to bring more artillery to bear to push Russian Artillery out of range of the landing areas before crossing en-masse.

Another approach would be for the Ukrainians to use the river as a defensive line, put counter batteries in Kherson to keep Russian artillery at arms length from the city, and swing troops around via Zaphorzhzhia to push south to Melitopol. This avoids having to cross the river under fire and taking Melitopol severs the last supply lines to Russian's south of Kherson (including Crimea) which might force mass surrenders rather than mass fighting.

*left bank? I thought it was right bank but perhaps I'm not looking at the banks from the correct orientation
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:50 am

There is another thing that EACLucifer alluded to in the East of the country. The Western bank (aka the right bank - as the river flows sort of Southerly and they are named from looking with the water flow) is higher than the Eastern so if the dam was destroyed, the East would be more heavily affected
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:03 am

TopBadger wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:40 am
So - lets assume for a moment that Russia has indeed pulled out of Kherson and now is only on the Crimean side* of the Dnipro. What is Ukraine's next move?

The Russians will be relying on the river to form part of their defensive line and pummel units that cross. I'd expect Ukraine would need to bring more artillery to bear to push Russian Artillery out of range of the landing areas before crossing en-masse.

Another approach would be for the Ukrainians to use the river as a defensive line, put counter batteries in Kherson to keep Russian artillery at arms length from the city, and swing troops around via Zaphorzhzhia to push south to Melitopol. This avoids having to cross the river under fire and taking Melitopol severs the last supply lines to Russian's south of Kherson (including Crimea) which might force mass surrenders rather than mass fighting.

*left bank? I thought it was right bank but perhaps I'm not looking at the banks from the correct orientation
There's the north east corner of the country still to liberate. No big cities or anything, but it would be another humiliation for Putin.

Ignore the main Luhansk/Donetsk territory, because the railways make it Russia's easiest supply region?

Threaten a southwards movement towards Berdyansk. That is what would isolate Crimea, rather than actually crossing the river at Kherson.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:24 am

Slightly disturbed by this https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... 72692733=1, which I've seen from a number of sources. Basically a US general saying RUssian casualties around 100,000 and Ukrainian probably similar.


While its hard to applaud casualties, I'd been assuming and hoping that the Ukrainian forces were achieving a favourable ratio overall.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:35 am

Ukraine is going to suffer huge losses, with the pain lasting for generations thanks to PTSD echoing down.

The way to prevent this is to prevent wars from starting by intimidating bullies like Putin. And when they start, end them fast and hard. Supply as much as you can dare, rather than the pathetic western handouts. The West is responsible for a proportion of these casualties, in a knowing and immoral way.

This is what Plodder never understands. A Russian tank blowing up is a shortening of war and a reduction in suffering.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:50 am

Imrael wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:24 am
Slightly disturbed by this https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... 72692733=1, which I've seen from a number of sources. Basically a US general saying RUssian casualties around 100,000 and Ukrainian probably similar.


While its hard to applaud casualties, I'd been assuming and hoping that the Ukrainian forces were achieving a favourable ratio overall.
It's the first time I've seen an estimate that indicated parity. Pretty much everything else I'd seen indicated Ukrainian casualties were heavy, but not on a level with Russian ones. Given the exceptionally poor attitude to their own wounded and their use of "reconnaissance by death" around Bakhmut and so on, it is hard to see this claim being accurate.

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