Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

Roman Bochkala's take on the Staromlynivka/Mokri Yala River axis of advance.

[TimW]

Roman Bochkala's take on the Staromlynivka/Mokri Yala River axis of advance.

There are probably some thickies round here who would benefit from a bit of interpretation. Naming no names.

[EACLucifer]

Roman Bochkala's take on the Staromlynivka/Mokri Yala River axis of advance.

There are probably some thickies round here who would benefit from a bit of interpretation. Naming no names.

Darker blue - long term Ukrainian held, either never occupied or liberated a while ago.
Paler blue - Ukrainian advanves
Red - Russian occupied.

I'm using Cyrillic for place names as thats what the map shows so you don't need to be able to read Cyrillic, just match the shape of the text to the map. Each place name in Cyrillic is followed by its Romanised name for consistency with my other references to these places and other English language references to them.

Right in the middle of the map there's a vertical line of settlements. They run along the valley of the Mokri Yala river. The Ukrainian starting point was the town of велика новосілка - Velika Novosilka. The frontline ran just south of that town until very recently. Ukrainian forces have advanced south along both banks of the river, freeing various settlements. It's unclear whether урожайне - Urozhaine - has been liberated, but according to the author of this map it has. The immediate target for Ukrainian forces in this area is very likely to be Старомлинівка - Staromlynivka. Staromlynivka is a road junction and a crossing point for the river that would allow those advancing on both sides of it to support each other.

Russian forces were reported as counterattacking at макарівка - Makarivka - but sources from both sides suggest it was a failure.

The principle Russian fortification line runs a little to the south of Staromlynivka. If Ukraine succeeds in taking Staromlynivka, it allows them to attack a relatively wide section of the fortification line. Here there is only one belt of fortifications, but further west there are two or three. South of this area the terrain rises to the Azov upland, then slopes down to the Azov Sea coast. If Ukrainian forces can break the line here, they can attempt to advance to Volnovakha and on to Mariupol and Berdyansk, and can cut supply lines coming from the occupied Donbas that feed the Russian forces further west in occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. So far, there's no evidence of an attempt to breach the fortification line yet, and though this operation is being conducted by several brigades it is still fundamentally a large recon-in-force looking for weakpoints. As the liberated area is over 100sqkm, so far it appears they have found something of a weak point.


ETA: The various symbols in the northern half of the map are unit badges, but I don't recognise most of them.

[EACLucifer]

Lots of people reporting that a Russian major general - Sergei Goryachev - got shwacked recently. Given the targetting of command posts with Storm Shadow, it is possible he was visited by a square missile.

[jimbob]

Lots of people reporting that a Russian major general - Sergei Goryachev - got shwacked recently. Given the targetting of command posts with Storm Shadow, it is possible he was visited by a square missile.

There's probably about a 5% chance it was a German antisemitic composer.

I think that Prigozhin might have actually crossed the Rubicon.

Or that Shoigu has given him no other option

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 38272?s=20

[Imrael]

Lots of people reporting that a Russian major general - Sergei Goryachev - got shwacked recently. Given the targetting of command posts with Storm Shadow, it is possible he was visited by a square missile.

There's probably about a 5% chance it was a German antisemitic composer.

I think that Prigozhin might have actually crossed the Rubicon.

Or that Shoigu has given him no other option

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 38272?s=20

IIRC Bellingcat have suggested this guy is pretty unreliable. Unless that was a different guy. Or not Bellingcat. Who knows, but I'd be cautious on this story.

[Martin Y]

IIRC Bellingcat have suggested this guy is pretty unreliable...

That appears to be a unifying theme in the comments. Of course in the end there really was a wolf but this smells of something else.

[EACLucifer]

Lots of people reporting that a Russian major general - Sergei Goryachev - got shwacked recently. Given the targetting of command posts with Storm Shadow, it is possible he was visited by a square missile.

There's probably about a 5% chance it was a German antisemitic composer.

I think that Prigozhin might have actually crossed the Rubicon.

Or that Shoigu has given him no other option

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 38272?s=20

Sushko's been known to make stuff up for attention, I'm afraid. Some of the stuff he posts is true, but there's no guarantee any of it is. I've just woken up and not checked today's news yet, but IIRC there was talk it was a missile.

[EACLucifer]

Regarding the map I posted earlier, there's nothing confirmed in either direction right now south of Makarivka (макарівка). Makarivka's definitely in Ukrainian hands and a Russian counterattack there failed yesterday.

[Woodchopper]

Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv helping fulfil part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for fighter jets, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.

[...]

The retired F/A-18s are sitting in a hangar at the Williamtown RAAF base outside Newcastle and unless sent to Ukraine, will either be scrapped or sold to a private sector aviation company, RAVN Aerospace, to use in the US as “enemies” for military aviators to train against

Robert Potter, an Australian security expert advising the Ukrainian government, confirmed negotiations were underway, but a specific deal is yet to be finalised.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/re ... 605-p5de0h

Needless to say the F/A-18 is a good jet and would be a fine addition to Ukraine's arsenal. That's enough for two squadrons even if some are stripped for parts to keep the others flying. They are probably a better option than early-model F-16s, too, not least because their design heritage as carrier capable aircraft means they have strongly built landing gear that can also cope with rough runways, something Australia liked about the design when choosing it. Additionally, Ukrainian fighter pilots are all going to be used to operating twin engine aircraft already.

Australian Hornets were also pretty heavily upgraded and can operate AMRAAMs for long range air-to-air combat and the very capable ASRAAM for short range air to air combat. For ground attack they can operate Paveways and, more likely useful in the Ukrainian context, JDAMs and JDAM-ERs. They can also operate Harpoons, which gives options for threatening Russian war ships even when they stay away from the Ukrainian coast, and JASSM air-launched low-observable cruise missiles - very roughly the American equivalent of Storm Shadow. These would be ideal for many strikes and would allow a substantial increase in that sort of strike, as America has a lot of early JASSMs that are due to be replaced by more advanced variants which are being produced at a significant rate, just so long as America can be persuaded to part with long range missiles...

And so long as Australia can be persuaded to part with some aircraft that would otherwise be scrap. Given the AUKUS deal, hopefully the UK and USA can lean on them and perhaps raise some funds to help cover some of the costs involved or downright purchase them.

Report that Ukrainians are looking into the condition of the Australian F18s and how they could be used.
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/g ... e66b83a1e0
[From 3 minutes]

[EACLucifer]

In the direction of Staromlinivka, which is being referred to as the Tavriya direction/offensive-axis in official communications, Russia has deployed reserves, fighting now apparently on a line running from Urozhaine east to Novodonetsk and Novomaiorks'ke. Russians are suffering meaningful losses there. For example three tanks lost just south of Staromaiors'ke.

In the "Khortsia" direction, which is much closer to the Dnipro and aimed at Tokmak, things got off to a bad start, but it seems some of the lost vehicles have been recovered. Someone there says there was good news as well as bad - though it's the bad that's largely been circulating, talks about Leopards surviving hits (another source said the difference between a Leopard 2 and a Soviet tank is "like the difference between Heaven and Hell, and his armour can take the blow") and Bradleys knocking out tanks with TOW missiles. The bad news relates to one of the first days, now some days ago, when a Ukrainian column encountered mines either on their side of the lines or on the frontline - possibly artillery deployed ones - and got hit by attack helicopters. Despite that most vehicles were intact, most crew survived (some sources say five killed) and it appears some of the vehicles have been recovered. Since then, Ukrainian forces have advanced a little in that area. They face heavier fortifications, but gentler terrain and less in the way of natural barriers than those further east. It also may be possible to outflank Russian fortifications on ground that was previously underneath the Kakhovsky reservoir.

[EACLucifer]

As of this video, the date of which I know not, [url-https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... 8632681472]Russian forces are still in Staromlynivka, but their supply convoys travelling through it are being hit by artillery.[/url] I checked the Geolocation, and it's right in the middle of the town.

[TimW]

Darker blue - long term Ukrainian held, either never occupied or liberated a while ago.
...

Cheers.

[EACLucifer]

Darker blue - long term Ukrainian held, either never occupied or liberated a while ago.
...

Cheers.

My current impression is that the map was too optimistic, possibly it assigned contested territory to Ukraine. Russians appear to have stabilised the front in the short term but have not driven Ukraine back from any of the settlements definitely taken, and have been forced to commit at least some of their reserves. That's not a bad outcome, given that this was not a large operation and did not involve the new brigades.

It is quite possible the plan was to force Russia to send in reserves to bring them into the open where they can be hammered with long range precision gun and rocket artillery. I posted a convoy in Staromlynivka the other day. A bit further south, beyond the Russian fortified lines but still in range of the current combat at NovoPetrykivka, five valuable Russian Msta-S self-propelled guns were wiped out in a single field.

[Woodchopper]

I get the impression that quite a lot of Russian equipment has been destroyed over the past few days via long range fire.

If so it looks like the Ukrainian offensive has posed a dilemma for Russia. If it moves its units forward or uses them in battle they risk being spotted and destroyed. But if the units stay back then they can't be used to fight.

Perhaps in such a battle with extensive drone surveillance the advantage of the defender is reduced.

Of course, ATGW and mines still pose a danger to attacking Ukrainian forces.

[Woodchopper]

Ukrainian pilots may begin training in Demark in August.

[Link in Danish] https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/seneste/forsv ... til-august

[EACLucifer]

I get the impression that quite a lot of Russian equipment has been destroyed over the past few days via long range fire.

If so it looks like the Ukrainian offensive has posed a dilemma for Russia. If it moves its units forward or uses them in battle they risk being spotted and destroyed. But if the units stay back then they can't be used to fight.

Perhaps in such a battle with extensive drone surveillance the advantage of the defender is reduced.

Yes, drone recon definitely a factor, as, likely, are modern counterbattery radars which have been supplied from western backers. Precision munitions also significantly reduce the advantage to the defender, that Msta battery would probably have been fine against conventional counterbattery fire, their armour enough to protect them against splinters from more distant misses. When, however, the attacker can put warheads on foreheads with M982 guided shells and M30/31 guided rockets, then defending batteries that reveal themselves are much more vulnerable. The Ukrainian advance along the Mokri Yala has not been in particular force, but if they make the Russians move into the open to resist them, they open them up to attack by long range precision artillery.

Ukraine's goal at the moment is likely to find a way to get through the Russian lines. Denuding them of defenders either by this sort of attrition, or creating sufficient fear of such attrition that Russian reserves are kept too far back to intervene in time to prevent a breach are good approaches to that.

Of course, ATGW and mines still pose a danger to attacking Ukrainian forces.

Yes, and if they push too far forward without moving SHORADS forward - something they have in limited supply - then Russia's attack helicopters come into play too.

[EACLucifer]

Something may have happened to one of Kadyrov's right hand men, Adam Delimkhanov, it's not clear, but there's a lot of panic on the Russian/Moscow-aligned-Chechen channels.

There's also talk of a Russian unit forming up and staying put in the open for two hours and getting utterly hammered by HIMARS and artillery earlier today. They appear to be separate incidents. Sukhrab Akhmedov is blamed for the latter. He was also to blame for much Russian conduct in the utterly failed Russian attacks on Vuhledar.


ETA: That senior Russian commander Wagner group kidnapped and beat up and forced to confess to shooting at them the other day is accusing Wagner group of leaking the location of Delimkhanov to Ukrainian forces.

[Woodchopper]

Commentary on the Ukrainian offensive: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... break-free

[EACLucifer]

Not going to post any pics/videos, but there's way more Russians being taken POW than I've seen in a long time, probably testament to Ukrainian tactics of bypassing strongpoints and enveloping them.

[Woodchopper]

About 200 Ukrainians are expected to finish U.S.-led training on Abrams tanks by the end of summer, defense officials said Wednesday.

The end of the training program will line up roughly with the expected fall delivery of the 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks the U.S. promised Ukraine earlier this year. Ukrainians are currently training in Germany with specifically-outfitted tanks as those 31 promised tanks go through refurbishment.

The 200 Ukrainians are in week three of an expected 12-week training plan, according to two senior U.S. Army Europe and Africa officials.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-ab ... yd-austin/

[TopBadger]

Not going to post any pics/videos, but there's way more Russians being taken POW than I've seen in a long time, probably testament to Ukrainian tactics of bypassing strongpoints and enveloping them.

Also testament to how Russian soldiers likely feel about fighting an unnecessary war for an Army that does not look after them...

[Woodchopper]

The Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK defence ministries and the United States Department of Defense today announced that they are partnering together to deliver high priority air defence equipment to Ukraine, addressing its most urgent air defence requirements as Russia continues its brazen missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities.

The initiative will deliver hundreds of short and medium range air defence missiles and associated systems required to protect Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure and further ensure the success of counter-offensive operations in coming months. Delivery of the equipment has already begun and should be complete within several weeks.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/join ... nd-the-usa

[EACLucifer]

Some talk that the Ukrainian advance at Velyka Novosilka has now been followed by one at Vuhledar, 30km to the east. The aim here is clearly to draw out reserves and forces them to move around. Ukrainian forces have a significant advantage in precise long range firepower, and many of their guns outrange their Russian counterparts, leading to things like the annihilation of an entire Msta SPG battery, footage of which released yesterday. Additionally, Ukrainian artillery has access to artillery deployed mines which they have been using against the supply lines of the forces sent to counter the initial attack south of Velyka Novosilka.

Instead of trying to be too aggressive for the moment their forces have now dug in on the initial attack axis to resist the Russian counterattack. Finding weakspots, hitting them hard enough to force a response, then digging in to defend against the response while GMLRS and long range gun artillery hits the Russian units forced to respond as they move around behind the front line appears to be a viable way to significantly weaken the Russian forces before attempting an actual breach of the fortifications.

[Woodchopper]

Israel looking at selling surplus Merkava tanks to two countries, one of which is in Europe.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defen ... cle-746428

Could be transferred to Ukraine, or could replace tanks sent to Ukraine.