Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

One bit of kit Britain is reportedly sending are cargo drones - big quadcopters designed to carry up to 68kg for some distance.

The question I have is this: are they going to be used for their intended purpose of delivering cargo, or are the Ukrainians going to bodge them into the heavy bomber of the multi-copter drone world, and use them to drop heavy mortar bombs/artillery shells/loads of grenades/other disagreeable objects on Russian positions.

68kg doesn't seem very much, unless it's for very specific uses.

I note that there is reported partisan activity in South Eastern Ukraine

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ment-may-4

Maybe such drones would be useful for that if they have the range and likelihood of getting through. It seems more an amount that would be useful for smallish ground forces than anything else.

>6000 rounds of 5.45x39, 20 or so AK74s, >100 hand grenades, >6 anti-tank mines or >20 person-days of rations, depending on how it's packed.

So no, not a huge amount of use for supplying large, regular formations, but a few deliveries could support partisans or SOF for a while.

But that payload capacity could also be used for a thermal camera and one of the following options;

1x152mm artillery shell
2-3x122mm artillery shell
4x120mm mortar bomb
~20x82mm mortar bomb
~60 RKG1600s - the munition Aerorozvidka are using with quadcopters

And potentially, if a way could be found to designate the target up to 10 MAM-C or 2 MAM-L munitions, the latter already in use with Bayraktar TB2s.

[jimbob]

One bit of kit Britain is reportedly sending are cargo drones - big quadcopters designed to carry up to 68kg for some distance.

The question I have is this: are they going to be used for their intended purpose of delivering cargo, or are the Ukrainians going to bodge them into the heavy bomber of the multi-copter drone world, and use them to drop heavy mortar bombs/artillery shells/loads of grenades/other disagreeable objects on Russian positions.

68kg doesn't seem very much, unless it's for very specific uses.

I note that there is reported partisan activity in South Eastern Ukraine

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ment-may-4

Maybe such drones would be useful for that if they have the range and likelihood of getting through. It seems more an amount that would be useful for smallish ground forces than anything else.

>6000 rounds of 5.45x39, 20 or so AK74s, >100 hand grenades, >6 anti-tank mines or >20 person-days of rations, depending on how it's packed.

So no, not a huge amount of use for supplying large, regular formations, but a few deliveries could support partisans or SOF for a while.

But that payload capacity could also be used for a thermal camera and one of the following options;

1x152mm artillery shell
2-3x122mm artillery shell
4x120mm mortar bomb
~20x82mm mortar bomb
~60 RKG1600s - the munition Aerorozvidka are using with quadcopters

And potentially, if a way could be found to designate the target up to 10 MAM-C or 2 MAM-L munitions, the latter already in use with Bayraktar TB2s.

So no, not a huge amount of use for supplying large, regular formations, but a few deliveries could support partisans or SOF for a while.


Indeed, so what is the user case for the British armed forces? Being cooler than the US military robot mules?

[dyqik]

One bit of kit Britain is reportedly sending are cargo drones - big quadcopters designed to carry up to 68kg for some distance.

The question I have is this: are they going to be used for their intended purpose of delivering cargo, or are the Ukrainians going to bodge them into the heavy bomber of the multi-copter drone world, and use them to drop heavy mortar bombs/artillery shells/loads of grenades/other disagreeable objects on Russian positions.

68kg doesn't seem very much, unless it's for very specific uses.

I note that there is reported partisan activity in South Eastern Ukraine

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ment-may-4

Maybe such drones would be useful for that if they have the range and likelihood of getting through. It seems more an amount that would be useful for smallish ground forces than anything else.

>6000 rounds of 5.45x39, 20 or so AK74s, >100 hand grenades, >6 anti-tank mines or >20 person-days of rations, depending on how it's packed.

So no, not a huge amount of use for supplying large, regular formations, but a few deliveries could support partisans or SOF for a while.

But that payload capacity could also be used for a thermal camera and one of the following options;

1x152mm artillery shell
2-3x122mm artillery shell
4x120mm mortar bomb
~20x82mm mortar bomb
~60 RKG1600s - the munition Aerorozvidka are using with quadcopters

And potentially, if a way could be found to designate the target up to 10 MAM-C or 2 MAM-L munitions, the latter already in use with Bayraktar TB2s.

Could probably deliver two or three MANPADS or four javelin missiles to small infantry groups?

[EACLucifer]

68kg doesn't seem very much, unless it's for very specific uses.

I note that there is reported partisan activity in South Eastern Ukraine

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ment-may-4

Maybe such drones would be useful for that if they have the range and likelihood of getting through. It seems more an amount that would be useful for smallish ground forces than anything else.

>6000 rounds of 5.45x39, 20 or so AK74s, >100 hand grenades, >6 anti-tank mines or >20 person-days of rations, depending on how it's packed.

So no, not a huge amount of use for supplying large, regular formations, but a few deliveries could support partisans or SOF for a while.

But that payload capacity could also be used for a thermal camera and one of the following options;

1x152mm artillery shell
2-3x122mm artillery shell
4x120mm mortar bomb
~20x82mm mortar bomb
~60 RKG1600s - the munition Aerorozvidka are using with quadcopters

And potentially, if a way could be found to designate the target up to 10 MAM-C or 2 MAM-L munitions, the latter already in use with Bayraktar TB2s.

So no, not a huge amount of use for supplying large, regular formations, but a few deliveries could support partisans or SOF for a while.


Indeed, so what is the user case for the British armed forces? Being cooler than the US military robot mules?

I don't know, I don't know much about these drones, but they are made in Britain, so it could be commercial off the shelf stuff (they have a "buy now" button on their website, but it just brings up details for the company's sales team.

They are made by Malloy Aeronautics, and I can't find out much about them other than that their founder is a New Zealander who had a go at building a hoverbike.

They offer three drones on their website - the T80, T150 and T400, which correspond to their capacity in pounds. Their website talks about last mile delivery, and their page for the T400 depicts it in Royal Navy colours, so potentially small cargo loads ship to ship or ship to shore?

[EACLucifer]

68kg doesn't seem very much, unless it's for very specific uses.

I note that there is reported partisan activity in South Eastern Ukraine

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ment-may-4

Maybe such drones would be useful for that if they have the range and likelihood of getting through. It seems more an amount that would be useful for smallish ground forces than anything else.

>6000 rounds of 5.45x39, 20 or so AK74s, >100 hand grenades, >6 anti-tank mines or >20 person-days of rations, depending on how it's packed.

So no, not a huge amount of use for supplying large, regular formations, but a few deliveries could support partisans or SOF for a while.

But that payload capacity could also be used for a thermal camera and one of the following options;

1x152mm artillery shell
2-3x122mm artillery shell
4x120mm mortar bomb
~20x82mm mortar bomb
~60 RKG1600s - the munition Aerorozvidka are using with quadcopters

And potentially, if a way could be found to designate the target up to 10 MAM-C or 2 MAM-L munitions, the latter already in use with Bayraktar TB2s.

Could probably deliver two or three MANPADS or four javelin missiles to small infantry groups?

And other human portable weapons, like Switchblade loitering munitions and any of the wide array of anti-tank ad anti-structure weapons being sent from numerous different donors, and also slightly heavier arms like heavy machine guns and automatic grenade launchers.

[sTeamTraen]

"There seems to be something wrong with our bl..dy ships this year" - Admiral Jelicovitch (probably).

[EACLucifer]

"There seems to be something wrong with our bl..dy ships this year" - Admiral Jelicovitch (probably).

Just rumours so far, but then that's roughly how it went with Moskva

We shall see one way or another within the next few days

[Woodchopper]

"There seems to be something wrong with our bl..dy ships this year" - Admiral Jelicovitch (probably).

Reported to be on fire near Snake Island: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-may-adm ... ssian-navy

If this is correct the Ukrainian attacks on Snake Island may have had the effect of drawing in more naval vessels.

The loss of a frigate would be serious. The Moskva was old and apparently its anti-missile defences weren't operational. But the claimed frigate was commissioned in 2017 and should have been fitted with modern defences.

[EACLucifer]

"There seems to be something wrong with our bl..dy ships this year" - Admiral Jelicovitch (probably).

Reported to be on fire near Snake Island: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-may-adm ... ssian-navy

And some suggestions re: rescue ships in the vicinity in a few bits of the OSINT community. Nothing from any of the more solid sources yet, and the fellow that caught the distress calls when Moskva was hit appears to be asleep at the moment.

If this is correct the Ukrainian attacks on Snake Island may have had the effect of drawing in more naval vessels.

I was speculating about that earlier

The loss of a frigate would be serious. The Moskva was old and apparently its anti-missile defences weren't operational. But the claimed frigate was commissioned in 2017 and should have been fitted with modern defences.

Yes, if a Grigorovich class has been sunk, it would be the most shocking naval loss yet.

[Woodchopper]

I was speculating about that earlier

Yes, I should have mentioned that.

[sTeamTraen]

With Ukraine's canny reluctance to claim attacks on Russian assets, we're seeing a sort of non-propaganda war (assuming there was indeed a missile strike). Presumably the Russians are currently trying to think of a new excuse for a brand-new frigate to catch fire.

[lpm]

Have the UK anti-ship missiles arrived yet?

Seems like Russia had 25 Black Sea ships. Moskva and a landing ship Saratov sunk, a couple more damaged when Saratov got hit, and two or maybe three small patrol boats destroyed.

Best ships remaining in the fleet are three frigates, per Google. Admiral Grigorovich, Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov. 409 ft long vs Moskva 612 ft, but much more modern.

So pretty bad news if one of these three has accidentally caught fire sunk in a storm come under attack from an ill-tempered sea bass.

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... UH5cPCa8ww

Reason for caution

[Woodchopper]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... UH5cPCa8ww

Reason for caution

The source I linked to earlier is to a Ukrainian news outlet which claims to have received confirmation that the ship is on fire: https://dumskaya.net/news/u-zmeinogo-go ... at-164010/ (in Ukranian, but Google Translate will do a good job).

But I don't know how reliable they are.

[EACLucifer]

Have the UK anti-ship missiles arrived yet?

Seems like Russia had 25 Black Sea ships. Moskva and a landing ship Saratov sunk, a couple more damaged when Saratov got hit, and two or maybe three small patrol boats destroyed.

Best ships remaining in the fleet are three frigates, per Google. Admiral Grigorovich, Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov. 409 ft long vs Moskva 612 ft, but much more modern.

So pretty bad news if one of these three has accidentally caught fire sunk in a storm come under attack from an ill-tempered sea bass.

The UK anti-ship missiles appear to be Sea Spear, a derivative of Brimstone, which are short ranged and carry a relatively small warhead. They are unlikely to reach warships at sea, and don't have thew power to sink them barring remarkable luck.

They are, however, absolutely perfect for wiping out landing craft in quantity.

[EACLucifer]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... UH5cPCa8ww

Reason for caution

With Moskva, there was a gap between rumour and confirmation.

However, that gap was filled with radio nerds yelling "Are you seeing what I'm seeing?", and we don't have that here.

Amateurs are prone to seeing activity and assuming it proves things, whereas a lot of activity, like western surveillance flights, is quite routine.

Rescue ships were one of the signs with Moskva, but I'm not sure what the source for the claims of rescue ships is.

[Woodchopper]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... UH5cPCa8ww

Reason for caution

The source I linked to earlier is to a Ukrainian news outlet which claims to have received confirmation that the ship is on fire: https://dumskaya.net/news/u-zmeinogo-go ... at-164010/ (in Ukranian, but Google Translate will do a good job).

But I don't know how reliable they are.

Ukrainain langiage news agency also cites information from officials: https://www.unian.ua/war/bilya-ostrova- ... 15164.html

So still unconfirmed and could be confusion or disinformation but it looks more reliable than a rumour that's being passed around Twitter.

[Allo V Psycho]

"There seems to be something wrong with our bl..dy ships this year" - Admiral Jelicovitch (probably).

Beattieski, shirley? As opposed to him saying "there seems to be something wrong with my bl..dy leadership today" or "there seems to be something wrong with my bl..dy leadership this year".

Still no confirmation re the Admiral Makarov.

[EACLucifer]

First evidence of Switchblade munition use in Ukraine.

Lots of speculation from the usual suspects that it was shot down/jammed/failed to go off. This appears be due to failure to understand the munition in question, or excessive copium usage. The entire front end is gone and the back end is split open - this is consistent with detonation of the warhead, as the warhead on a Switchblade 300 is really quite small.

[EACLucifer]

I've criticised western attitudes to artillery before, and here's an example why.

Here's an experimental Ukrainian 2S22 "Bohdana" firing at an unseen target

This vehicle effectively consists of a truck with the artillery gun mounted directly to it.

By contrast, a lot of NATO forces have gone with the M777, a very expensive, high tech towed artillery piece. It takes more than six minutes to emplace or de-emplace the M777, rendering it vulnerable to counter-battery fire. To operate an M777, it needs a gun tractor to tow it. Placing the gun directly onto the tractor - as the French have done with the CAESAR system - allows for much quicker emplacement and de-emplacement, without adding to the logistics burden, as a vehicle is needed in both cases, and the weight of the artillery piece and tractor isn't necessarily any lower than the truck based SPG. Unlike a traditional SPG, the CAESAR and Bohdana are still served like a towed howitzer, without an autoloader, armoured turret etc.

Overall, the M777 is an extremely advanced version of an obsolescent concept.

There are some advantages to the M777 - these mostly relate to the ability to move it by helicopter - but in most situations, these aren't going to be that relevant. A defence manufacturer could probably make quite a tidy sum if they create a way to adapt the cradle, barrel and fire control computer and so on of the M777 and mount it on a self-propelled chassis.

Better still would be adopting longer barrelled designs to allow for greater range, as the PzH2000 has, or even reintroducing the 203mm calibre now that more advanced manufacturing techniques allow for lighter artillery pieces in general, as the 203mm can outrange any 155mm, as tube artillery allows for cheap, accurate firepower, and for targets where precision is particularly important, guided shells are still a fair bit cheaper and potentially quicker to and more reliable to bring to bear than aircraft launched munitions.

[jimbob]

First evidence of Switchblade munition use in Ukraine.

Lots of speculation from the usual suspects that it was shot down/jammed/failed to go off. This appears be due to failure to understand the munition in question, or excessive copium usage. The entire front end is gone and the back end is split open - this is consistent with detonation of the warhead, as the warhead on a Switchblade 300 is really quite small.

Did you mean to provide a link?

[EACLucifer]

First evidence of Switchblade munition use in Ukraine.

Lots of speculation from the usual suspects that it was shot down/jammed/failed to go off. This appears be due to failure to understand the munition in question, or excessive copium usage. The entire front end is gone and the back end is split open - this is consistent with detonation of the warhead, as the warhead on a Switchblade 300 is really quite small.

Did you mean to provide a link?

Not sure where I stand re: forum policy and OSINT images. The UAWeapons twitter account posted images an hour or two back.

[EACLucifer]

Intel flight watchers are increasingly noting that there's unusual and elevated intel flights in the area where the frigate was supposedly attacked

It looks like western intel is at least looking into the possibility something happened to the Makarov/in the vicinity of Snake Island

In other Snake Island news, yet more Bayraktar strikes against air defence equipment. Ukrainians are definitely trying to either force the occupiers out, or force them to commit more forces.

[El Pollo Diablo]

First evidence of Switchblade munition use in Ukraine.

Lots of speculation from the usual suspects that it was shot down/jammed/failed to go off. This appears be due to failure to understand the munition in question, or excessive copium usage. The entire front end is gone and the back end is split open - this is consistent with detonation of the warhead, as the warhead on a Switchblade 300 is really quite small.

Did you mean to provide a link?

Not sure where I stand re: forum policy and OSINT images. The UAWeapons twitter account posted images an hour or two back.

Not sure we have a policy on OSINT images - I think as long as the source is reasonable and public, and the claims are reasonable then it's okay, I think?

[EACLucifer]

Did you mean to provide a link?

Not sure where I stand re: forum policy and OSINT images. The UAWeapons twitter account posted images an hour or two back.

Not sure we have a policy on OSINT images - I think as long as the source is reasonable and public, and the claims are reasonable then it's okay, I think?

Policy says "verified and respected" source, I'd misremembered it as being something more along the lines of established media only.

In future, I'll consider things like UAWeapons, Oryxspioenkop, CovertShores and similar to be verified and respected, as they are probably a lot more trustworthy than substantial portions of the press - I've already posted from them, but generally it's been to illustrate something rather than as evidence it's true.

As a general observation, OSINT is an incredibly powerful tool for people following what is happening in the world, but it takes time to get to grips with it, there's some downright frauds, and a lot of enthusiastic amateurs well outside their realm of competence.

For example, in the time between the missiles hitting Moskva and evidence of the sinking emerging, several fakes were circulated based on older images of the ship, some of them edited to look like they'd been filmed in night vision, and some of the footage supposedly of military aid bound for Ukraine was years old.

And as a warning for those considering dabbling in it - you will see things you would prefer you had not seen.