Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 06, 2022 6:18 pm

Ukrainian forces continue to advance northeast of Kharkiv. At this rate, they will soon be threatening the main road from Belgorod towards the forward Russian positions around Izium, and also one of the two rail lines from Russia that allow supplies to be moved towards Izium, as both pass through Vovchansk, which is only a little east of the Seversky Donets river. Both appear to be already in range of artillery if Ukraine were to bring their guns up near the frontline at Staryi Saltiv.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 06, 2022 8:10 pm

US government has no information on the Makarov. Looks like it probably wasn’t sunk then. https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1 ... Xuu-OSU4bA

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 06, 2022 8:24 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 8:10 pm
US government has no information on the Makarov. Looks like it probably wasn’t sunk then. https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1 ... Xuu-OSU4bA
It's looking that way - people are doing a pretty good job of tracking Russian ships in and out of Sevastopol an Novorossiysk, so barring sudden evidence of sinking/damage, it'll be a matter of waiting for a Grigorovich class to turn up.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat May 07, 2022 12:37 am

Allo V Psycho wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 11:55 am
sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 10:49 pm
"There seems to be something wrong with our bl..dy ships this year" - Admiral Jelicovitch (probably).
Beattieski, shirley? As opposed to him saying "there seems to be something wrong with my bl..dy leadership today" or "there seems to be something wrong with my bl..dy leadership this year".
Beatty it is. You've got me bang to rights, guvnor.
Something something hammer something something nail

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 07, 2022 4:40 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 8:24 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 8:10 pm
US government has no information on the Makarov. Looks like it probably wasn’t sunk then. https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1 ... Xuu-OSU4bA
It's looking that way - people are doing a pretty good job of tracking Russian ships in and out of Sevastopol an Novorossiysk, so barring sudden evidence of sinking/damage, it'll be a matter of waiting for a Grigorovich class to turn up.
Here’s a summary of what’s known: https://twitter.com/thatkhersch/status/ ... Hc2xe2hghQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 8:26 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 4:40 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 8:24 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 8:10 pm
US government has no information on the Makarov. Looks like it probably wasn’t sunk then. https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1 ... Xuu-OSU4bA
It's looking that way - people are doing a pretty good job of tracking Russian ships in and out of Sevastopol an Novorossiysk, so barring sudden evidence of sinking/damage, it'll be a matter of waiting for a Grigorovich class to turn up.
Here’s a summary of what’s known: https://twitter.com/thatkhersch/status/ ... Hc2xe2hghQ
The video mentioned in that thread is almost certainly fake - we can tell it's meant to be normal speed, as the radar is rotating at normal speed, but the viewpoint moves quite a lot. The observing aircraft would have to be almost on top of the ship for the angle to change that much, yet the view is very hazy and appears to be distant - and Bayraktars' cameras are remarkably clear at a hundred kilometres or more. Depending on the range it was supposedly taken at, the aircraft filming would have been travelling somewhere between a minimum of several times as fast as a Bayraktar can go at a full clip to a maximum of several times how fast an SR-71, fastest reconnaissance aircraft ever, can go at full clip in order to produce the angular change.

Fakes don't prove it didn't happen - they emerged with Moskva, too - but they certainly don't prove it did.

I will note that a good number of the techniques that haven't picked up Makarov also didn't pick up Moskva. Tools like FIRMS are very powerful, but they are not perfect. Nor would one expect a sunken ship to appear on SAR.

At the moment, there's no evidence pointing to a successful attack, and comments from the US suggest that we ought to have seen something by now. Arestovych's comments are interesting on this one. It could be that Ukraine did attack a Grigorovich class, but either failed to hit, or failed to inflict meaningful damage.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 10:02 am

The Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast continues, and appears to be successful so far. I've previously mentioned the Russian invaders were driven out of Staryi Saltiv - it appears that Ukrainian troops came up from the south along the Seversky Donets, then subsequently cleared the main east west road from Kharkiv to Staryi Saltiv. Now they are advancing north towards the Russian border. It's not yet clear how far they've got, but there's rumours the Russians have had to abandon ground to avoid encirclement, as happened at Kyiv and Trostyanets. The advance may have got as far as Lyptsi, which is less than 10km from the border. As there is little of significance between this point and the Russian border, they may choose to dig in at this point and divert their offensive efforts elsewhere. Alternatively, they could choose to keep pushing and drive the Russians back over the border everywhere west of the Seversky Donets, which would also bring the staging areas around Belgorod and the supply lines through Vovchans'k comfortably into artillery range. They have already driven the Russians far enough back to get them out of the range of most artillery from Kharkiv.

In addition, Ukrainian forces are counterattacking further south, shelling Russian forces just west of Izium, north of the Seversky Donets, which runs west to east at this point. The Russian position here is vulnerable, as they do not hold a very wide area west of the Oskil river, which is dammed just east of Izium, with a large reservoir north of that point that splits the Russian supply routes into two parts. The railways and best roads run north-south on the western side of the Oskil and its reservoir. The Russians have crossed the Seversky Donets at Izium in order to push south in the direction of Barvinkove. Those advancing forces are vulnerable if Izium is threatened.

It's important to remember supply lines are not an all or nothing thing. If you are trying to ferry stuff in a car between Leeds and Manchester, and the M62 is closed, it doesn't block the route, but it will take longer, and that will mean fewer trips and fewer car loads per day. If the A58 and the A672 are closed too, it slows things down further, and so on. The same is true of military supply lines. If the Ukrainians were just to use artillery to crater the roads that run through Izium, it would slow the movement of supply trucks. If they did the same to the railway, it could certainly be repaired, but it would delay operations, and reduce the supplies reaching Izium, and thus those reaching the frontline south of the Donets.

To maintain their slow, grinding advance, the Russians need enormous amounts of artillery ammunition, as it is their principle advantage, and the key to their advance. To successfully use artillery to enable advances, they need to achieve sufficient concentration of firepower in space and time. If their supply of shells is slowed, they can either achieve this less often, or in fewer places, and they have to maintain a certain pace of advance or they are in very serious trouble. The Russian forces in Ukraine have repeatedly showed they are poor at defending, probably due to poor morale and significant lack of infantry. If they cannot maintain the firepower pressure needed to advance - which is dependent on a long supply line from the north - they could find themselves driven back as they were from Kyiv and Chernihiv and Sumy.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 11:52 am

Ground launched Brimstone already in action, it seems.

The Brimstone missile is an extremely advanced weapon, and was used by the RAF against Gaddafi and IS forces. There's been discussion of sending them for a while - mostly focussed on their potential use against landing craft - but it looks like they are already in use against land targets in the east.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sat May 07, 2022 1:14 pm

I think the Russian soldiers are getting to the "Run away! Run away!" stage. They know they're getting nowhere.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 8:07 pm

Snake Island. Sukhoi-27s :shock:

Ukrainian airforce is still active, and just bombed Russian positions with crewed aircraft.

Note the damage - these planes can carry a much heavier warload than any drone in Ukrainian service.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Herainestold » Sat May 07, 2022 8:13 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 1:14 pm
I think the Russian soldiers are getting to the "Run away! Run away!" stage. They know they're getting nowhere.
Evidence?
Masking forever
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 8:21 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 8:13 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 1:14 pm
I think the Russian soldiers are getting to the "Run away! Run away!" stage. They know they're getting nowhere.
Evidence?
Their positions have collapsed immediately northeast of Kharkiv.

It's pretty well documented by OSINT, which in practise means things like local reports (usually on Telegram), footage that can be geolocated by those with the right skills, and evidence of combat via things like the FIRMS fire monitoring system, that one also telling us Ukraine is contesting territory right up to the edge of the urban area of Izium.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sat May 07, 2022 9:34 pm

Saturday night explosions p.rn.

Ukraine jets bombing Snake Island.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 0230444035
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sat May 07, 2022 9:43 pm

Oh, EACL had already posted that.

Here's a different one. Drone attack on small patrol boat at Snake Island

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... 8354798592
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 9:49 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:34 pm
Saturday night explosions p.rn.

Ukraine jets bombing Snake Island.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 0230444035
I posted that one already. There's been a significant drone campaign against Russian positions on Snake Island, and now that the air defences there have been largely destroyed - and the Moskva's AA umbrella gone too - it's made crewed aircraft flights, with their much heavier bombload, possible. The majority of structures on the island have been utterly destroyed as a consequence, and the footage contains evidence of significant secondary explosions, meaning that Russian munitions stored there have been destroyed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sat May 07, 2022 9:57 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 8:07 pm
Snake Island. Sukhoi-27s :shock:

Ukrainian airforce is still active, and just bombed Russian positions with crewed aircraft.

Note the damage - these planes can carry a much heavier warload than any drone in Ukrainian service.
Damn they are low, it looks like the second aircraft flies through the debris plume of the first plane's attack.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 10:05 pm

bjn wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:57 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 8:07 pm
Snake Island. Sukhoi-27s :shock:

Ukrainian airforce is still active, and just bombed Russian positions with crewed aircraft.

Note the damage - these planes can carry a much heavier warload than any drone in Ukrainian service.
Damn they are low, it looks like the second aircraft flies through the debris plume of the first plane's attack.
Not as low as the Ukrainian Sukhoi-25s seen over the east very recently.

It looks like they might be using parachute retarded bombs, which would make sense, given the altitude.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Sat May 07, 2022 11:08 pm

Over on ISF someone reported the Russians claiming a shopping list of shoot downs at Snake Island, with several Ukrainian aircraft including 3 troop carrying helicopters and one boat claimed destroyed. I'm not clear of the timings of these claims let alone whether they have any bearing on reality but it made me think that the Ukrainians may have thought that reoccupying Snake Island would be the perfect "f.ck you" to rain on Putin's parade.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Sun May 08, 2022 6:54 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 8:13 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 1:14 pm
I think the Russian soldiers are getting to the "Run away! Run away!" stage. They know they're getting nowhere.
Evidence?
Oh, so NOW you want evidence??

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 08, 2022 9:15 am

Martin Y wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 11:08 pm
Over on ISF someone reported the Russians claiming a shopping list of shoot downs at Snake Island, with several Ukrainian aircraft including 3 troop carrying helicopters and one boat claimed destroyed. I'm not clear of the timings of these claims let alone whether they have any bearing on reality but it made me think that the Ukrainians may have thought that reoccupying Snake Island would be the perfect "f.ck you" to rain on Putin's parade.
Their list included a Sukhoi-23. Sukhoi-23s aren't a real thing, the numbering sequence skips from 17 to 24.

Might as well have claimed a Mig-28, or perhaps a US supplied Oscar EW 5894 Phallus.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 08, 2022 9:33 am

Speaking of Snake Island and helicopters full of troops, a Bayraktar just hit one - an Mi-8 "Hip" - as it was apparently beginning to offload troops onto Snake Island, which won't have been a particularly pleasant experience for those on board.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun May 08, 2022 9:36 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 9:15 am
Martin Y wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 11:08 pm
Over on ISF someone reported the Russians claiming a shopping list of shoot downs at Snake Island, with several Ukrainian aircraft including 3 troop carrying helicopters and one boat claimed destroyed. I'm not clear of the timings of these claims let alone whether they have any bearing on reality but it made me think that the Ukrainians may have thought that reoccupying Snake Island would be the perfect "f.ck you" to rain on Putin's parade.
Their list included a Sukhoi-23. Sukhoi-23s aren't a real thing, the numbering sequence skips from 17 to 24.

Might as well have claimed a Mig-28, or perhaps a US supplied Oscar EW 5894 Phallus.
The tweet I see talks about 1 Su-27 and 1 Su-24 and a Ukrainian assault boat.



https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1523 ... bq-DHFAuog

But with no supporting evidence

It wouldn't be the first time that Russian propaganda has showed its own losses and claimed them as Ukrainian.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 08, 2022 10:00 am

jimbob wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 9:36 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 9:15 am
Martin Y wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 11:08 pm
Over on ISF someone reported the Russians claiming a shopping list of shoot downs at Snake Island, with several Ukrainian aircraft including 3 troop carrying helicopters and one boat claimed destroyed. I'm not clear of the timings of these claims let alone whether they have any bearing on reality but it made me think that the Ukrainians may have thought that reoccupying Snake Island would be the perfect "f.ck you" to rain on Putin's parade.
Their list included a Sukhoi-23. Sukhoi-23s aren't a real thing, the numbering sequence skips from 17 to 24.

Might as well have claimed a Mig-28, or perhaps a US supplied Oscar EW 5894 Phallus.
The tweet I see talks about 1 Su-27 and 1 Su-24 and a Ukrainian assault boat.



https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1523 ... bq-DHFAuog

But with no supporting evidence

It wouldn't be the first time that Russian propaganda has showed its own losses and claimed them as Ukrainian.
I think they initially claimed Su-23 and Su-24, then changed Su-23 to Su-27 when people laughed at them.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 08, 2022 10:16 am

More Raptor Assault Boats destroyed round Snake Island, too.

Russia need to either abandon the positions or meaningfully reinforce them now, but reinforcing them means bringing larger ships into the range of Neptune missiles.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun May 08, 2022 10:38 am

It’s also telling that Ukraine is able to deploy Byrakrars around the island. They aren’t all needed to fight Russian attacks in the Donbas.

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