Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 08, 2022 11:18 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 10:38 am
It’s also telling that Ukraine is able to deploy Byrakrars around the island. They aren’t all needed to fight Russian attacks in the Donbas.
A wreck showed off by the Russians a little while back had a build date after the start of the war. Ukraine is getting more from Turkey even as the war goes on.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 08, 2022 12:20 pm

IF the RSOTM telegram account is accurate - a big if, as they are a bunch of f.cking Nazis, but also really bad at OPSEC - then Russia's lost Snake Island, and the helicopter that got schwacked unloading troops was carrying SF meant to evacuate the rest.

Huge if, though.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sun May 08, 2022 1:59 pm

What does carrying SF mean?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Gfamily » Sun May 08, 2022 2:18 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 1:59 pm
What does carrying SF mean?
I assumed Special Forces
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 08, 2022 2:52 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 2:18 pm
lpm wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 1:59 pm
What does carrying SF mean?
I assumed Special Forces
Yes.

RSOTM = Reverse Side Of The Medal = Wagner Group online hangout. Full of NeoNazis, sometimes they go on about runes, sometimes they reveal stuff Russia would rather they didn't reveal.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sun May 08, 2022 6:43 pm

Not sure I get it. Why would they be sending forces in, if they were abandoning the island?

They'd send in empty helicopters, if they cared enough about the conscripts stationed there?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 08, 2022 7:03 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 6:43 pm
Not sure I get it. Why would they be sending forces in, if they were abandoning the island?

They'd send in empty helicopters, if they cared enough about the conscripts stationed there?
You can fit quite a lot of people on an Mi-8, it's a big transport helicopter. Possibly a small team on a big helicopter to grab survivors and make sure nothing sensitive is left behind?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Sun May 08, 2022 8:56 pm

bjn wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:57 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 8:07 pm
Snake Island. Sukhoi-27s :shock:

Ukrainian airforce is still active, and just bombed Russian positions with crewed aircraft.

Note the damage - these planes can carry a much heavier warload than any drone in Ukrainian service.
Damn they are low, it looks like the second aircraft flies through the debris plume of the first plane's attack.
There's already a fire in the middle of the island which becomes an explosion just fractionally before the planes fly over (and the plume looks like it almost catches the 2nd jet). The bombs which they drop fall further to the left and explode after they've safely passed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 09, 2022 9:51 am

lpm wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 6:43 pm
Not sure I get it. Why would they be sending forces in, if they were abandoning the island?

They'd send in empty helicopters, if they cared enough about the conscripts stationed there?
Thread discussing just this

One possible explanation for the helicopter is that Russia had lost contact with its occupation forces on Snake Island and was sending in a team to find out/fix what had happened. It is likely that much of the garrison were injured or dead after the Sukhoi bombing run, which destroyed most of the buildings and set off ammunition fires on the island, so they would have required assistance to evacuate. No idea what'll happen to anyone left on there now.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 09, 2022 11:40 am


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon May 09, 2022 12:37 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 9:51 am
lpm wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 6:43 pm
Not sure I get it. Why would they be sending forces in, if they were abandoning the island?

They'd send in empty helicopters, if they cared enough about the conscripts stationed there?
Thread discussing just this

One possible explanation for the helicopter is that Russia had lost contact with its occupation forces on Snake Island and was sending in a team to find out/fix what had happened. It is likely that much of the garrison were injured or dead after the Sukhoi bombing run, which destroyed most of the buildings and set off ammunition fires on the island, so they would have required assistance to evacuate. No idea what'll happen to anyone left on there now.
from that thread

https://twitter.com/ukr24022/status/152 ... eB_14zX3Rg
Another thing. Satellite images revealed a Z painted on the Island. This would therefore corroborate a loss of communication but also the reconnaissance issue. And this means all of the garrison was not dead at this time.
followed by a photo showing just that. And compared to satellite photos on May 6th and 7th without that "Z"
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon May 09, 2022 1:27 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 12:37 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 9:51 am
lpm wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 6:43 pm
Not sure I get it. Why would they be sending forces in, if they were abandoning the island?

They'd send in empty helicopters, if they cared enough about the conscripts stationed there?
Thread discussing just this

One possible explanation for the helicopter is that Russia had lost contact with its occupation forces on Snake Island and was sending in a team to find out/fix what had happened. It is likely that much of the garrison were injured or dead after the Sukhoi bombing run, which destroyed most of the buildings and set off ammunition fires on the island, so they would have required assistance to evacuate. No idea what'll happen to anyone left on there now.
from that thread

https://twitter.com/ukr24022/status/152 ... eB_14zX3Rg
Another thing. Satellite images revealed a Z painted on the Island. This would therefore corroborate a loss of communication but also the reconnaissance issue. And this means all of the garrison was not dead at this time.
followed by a photo showing just that. And compared to satellite photos on May 6th and 7th without that "Z"
Also this

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... BeCrewtgdg
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 09, 2022 11:08 pm

Footage published of Ukrainian artillery striking Vesele and Zabavne, both a little north of Izium, and on that main supply route I discussed previously.

Here's a link to the latter footage - I geolocated this to 49°17'24.2"N 37°13'59.2"E

Russian supply lines remain very vulnerable, and their hold on the ground they have captured is only as strong as their supply lines.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Mon May 09, 2022 11:29 pm

There is also recent drone footage that purports to be Russian 152mm howitzers being destroyed by Ukrainian counter battery fire.

ETA. claims to be near Izyum and is the result of recently delivered PGMs in action.

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/st ... 2TYIqvSNYA

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 10, 2022 5:26 pm

bjn wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 11:29 pm
There is also recent drone footage that purports to be Russian 152mm howitzers being destroyed by Ukrainian counter battery fire.

ETA. claims to be near Izyum and is the result of recently delivered PGMs in action.

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/st ... 2TYIqvSNYA
It's certainly a plausible claim.

There seems to be a real effort to target Russia's artillery - especially SPGs - right now. That makes sense. The battle for the Donbas right now is dominated by the big guns.

In the north, the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues and continues to be successful, driving the Russians back up towards the border. A quick glance at map of the border around Vovchans'k shows that the T2108, the best supply route from Belgorod to Izium and the most developed road route to Izium from Russia overall comes as close as a kilometer to the Seversky Donets, and the railway is within a few hundred metres. If Ukrainian forces can push the Russians back over the border west of the Seversky Donets in the north, those supply routes east of the Seversky Donets won't just be in artillery range, they'll be in tank gun range, ATGM range, commercial drone range, and even heavy machine gun and anti-materiel rifle range.

That won't totally shut off Russian supplies, of course. They can be brought in by other routes that enter Ukraine further east, but it slows down the delivery of supplies, and the Russians are only making very slow progress with what they have now. In addition, one of those routes runs through Velykyi Burluk, and that is now within the range of some of the new artillery supplied by the west, the 2S7s, and the longer ranged MRLS in Ukraine's arsenal. Further south, the fighting is more even, but Russia is not advancing fast anywhere. Near Bilohorivka, the Russians tried to bridge the Seversky Donets. A number of vehicles were destroyed along with the pontoon bridge, and it appears the attack was thwarted.

Meanwhile, no fewer than eight C-17 Globemaster IIIs, with a cargo capacity of 77.5 tonnes each, are flying in towards Poland at the moment, perhaps related to the Lend Lease bill getting signed yesterday.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 10, 2022 8:54 pm

Kharkiv theatre map, courtesy of Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000)

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As you can see, there's not much distance between the Seversky Donets and the supply routes - both road and rail - that come down through Vovchans'k.

Once the Russians are driven across the border, it ought to be possible to hold the line with fewer troops than it took for the counter-offensive, and that frees up troops for Ukraine to use elsewhere - either to counter the Russians much further south, or potentially to exploit their foothold east of the Seversky Donets around Chuhuiv. Though the Russians do have other supply routes to Izium, all the good ones, including all the rail routes, run through Kupiansk. Ukraine does not need to liberate and reoccupy Kupiansk to put pressure on those supply routes.

And in further military aid news, the first of the Mi17 transport helicopters from the US was apparently handed over today.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue May 10, 2022 10:18 pm

Is there any strategic reason why Russia would want to cling on North of Kharkiv / west of the river?

There's pride. Fantasies of retaking it and capturing Kharkiv? Tying up Ukrainian forces to defend Kharkiv?

There's no east west roads that Ukraine needs in that area.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 10, 2022 10:58 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 10:18 pm
Is there any strategic reason why Russia would want to cling on North of Kharkiv / west of the river?

There's pride. Fantasies of retaking it and capturing Kharkiv? Tying up Ukrainian forces to defend Kharkiv?

There's no east west roads that Ukraine needs in that area.
Tying up Ukrainian forces to defend Kharkiv is almost certainly the answer.

The Russians are fighting, they aren't just withdrawing, but they are being pushed back more easily than if they had decided they really, really needed to stay. However, the number of destroyed Russian vehicles - and one can presume commensurate manpower losses - associated with this counter-offensive indicate that if the Russians are trying to withdraw, they aren't doing it very well. Then again, trying to break contact and withdraw intact is one of the more difficult things to do in warfare.

ETA: There's also Belgorod to consider. Russia has staged a lot of fuel and ammunition through Belgorod. Ukrainian artillery near the border puts that in great danger, likewise the pressure on the road/railway through Vovchans'k I mentioned earlier.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed May 11, 2022 8:52 am

Using a secret source of information (Google Maps), it looks like there's no natural border between Russia and Ukraine in that area. Just flat farmland and farm tracks.

So I assume both sides don't really care where the line is, so long as Ukraine can prevent shelling of Kharkiv and Russia can prevent shelling of Vovchansk.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 11, 2022 10:51 am

lpm wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 8:52 am
Using a secret source of information (Google Maps), it looks like there's no natural border between Russia and Ukraine in that area. Just flat farmland and farm tracks.

So I assume both sides don't really care where the line is, so long as Ukraine can prevent shelling of Kharkiv and Russia can prevent shelling of Vovchansk.
The Ukrainians may be unwilling to allow their regular ground forces to Russian territory (spies and aircraft are another matter). Putin would probably milk the symbolism of an actual ‘invasion’ of Russia, and some of Ukraine’s foreign backers may get nervous.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed May 11, 2022 12:13 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 8:52 am
Using a secret source of information (Google Maps), it looks like there's no natural border between Russia and Ukraine in that area. Just flat farmland and farm tracks.

So I assume both sides don't really care where the line is, so long as Ukraine can prevent shelling of Kharkiv and Russia can prevent shelling of Vovchansk.
Russia can't prevent the shelling of Vovchans'k without substantially advancing from where they are - remember the ranges of artillery pieces are measured in tens of km.

Speaking of artillery, Annalena Baerbock talked about Germany supplying modern tanks and howitzers during her visit to Kyiv. Coupled with their previous announcement that they would join the Dutch in supplying some PzH2000s, it's a good sign they are getting their act together.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed May 11, 2022 3:58 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 5:26 pm
Near Bilohorivka, the Russians tried to bridge the Seversky Donets. A number of vehicles were destroyed along with the pontoon bridge, and it appears the attack was thwarted.
Aerial (presumably drone) pictures of the aftermath have emerged. Russian losses here are catastrophic. At least four tanks, among a total of >30 AFVs destroyed. For context, a Battalion Tactical Group has a nominal strength of ten tanks and forty infantry fighting vehicles, so we're looking at an under strength BTG, or a portion of a BTG either assigned to the attack, or the part thereof that reached the Ukrainian side before the pontoon bridge was destroyed - reportedly this occured while the Russians were crossing.

Reportedly it was the Ukrainian 17th Separate Tank Brigade that inflicted this defeat on the Russians.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed May 11, 2022 4:21 pm

EACL's neologism at the top of this thread has made it (with a spelling tweak) to Urban Dictionary. :lol:
Something something hammer something something nail

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed May 11, 2022 4:34 pm

One wonders, at the current rate of attrition, how long until they run out of Tanks, AFVs, Artillery, etc... I know they have huge numbers (allegedly they had over 12,000 tanks before this conflict) but given the question marks about serviceability of equipment surely they can't do this for another 12 months. At this rate by the end of the year they'd have lost 5,000 tanks - which might be their entire serviceable fleet for all we know.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed May 11, 2022 5:32 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 3:58 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 5:26 pm
Near Bilohorivka, the Russians tried to bridge the Seversky Donets. A number of vehicles were destroyed along with the pontoon bridge, and it appears the attack was thwarted.
Aerial (presumably drone) pictures of the aftermath have emerged. Russian losses here are catastrophic. At least four tanks, among a total of >30 AFVs destroyed. For context, a Battalion Tactical Group has a nominal strength of ten tanks and forty infantry fighting vehicles, so we're looking at an under strength BTG, or a portion of a BTG either assigned to the attack, or the part thereof that reached the Ukrainian side before the pontoon bridge was destroyed - reportedly this occured while the Russians were crossing.

Reportedly it was the Ukrainian 17th Separate Tank Brigade that inflicted this defeat on the Russians.
That's insane.

There's no way anyone can build a bridge under artillery fire. They should have scrambled for cover at the first hit, waiting for counter artillery. Or called in air strikes.

If the bridge was built and Ukraine waited for some to cross then that was a pretty confident move by Ukraine’s leaders.
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