Blyatskrieg

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Martin Y
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Thu May 12, 2022 12:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 12:02 am
This footage shows an M777 in action, reportedly destroying a Russian self-propelled gun. It's combat footage, and be advised it does include footage of the target, too.

Reportedly - and I can't verify anything other than a howitzer fires and in separate footage something explodes catastrophically - they fire one shot, miss, and then get a direct hit with their second shot after correcting their aim, with a spotting drone allowing them to do that. The two shots are 77 seconds apart, at that elevation most of that will be flight time...
The claim may be accurate but the video illustrates the story rather than showing it accurately.

There's an edit in the video about halfway through, so although it does show two shots (it's not the same bit of video repeated twice) we've no info about the time between shots or even which one came first. The cutaway video of the explosion shows smoke already rising from the target and it's possible the big explosion is not a second shell hit but rather ammunition cooking off in a fire caused by a hit we aren't shown.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 12, 2022 6:03 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 12:55 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 12:02 am
This footage shows an M777 in action, reportedly destroying a Russian self-propelled gun. It's combat footage, and be advised it does include footage of the target, too.

Reportedly - and I can't verify anything other than a howitzer fires and in separate footage something explodes catastrophically - they fire one shot, miss, and then get a direct hit with their second shot after correcting their aim, with a spotting drone allowing them to do that. The two shots are 77 seconds apart, at that elevation most of that will be flight time...
The claim may be accurate but the video illustrates the story rather than showing it accurately.

There's an edit in the video about halfway through, so although it does show two shots (it's not the same bit of video repeated twice) we've no info about the time between shots or even which one came first.
Ah, missed that as I was in a hurry.
The cutaway video of the explosion shows smoke already rising from the target and it's possible the big explosion is not a second shell hit but rather ammunition cooking off in a fire caused by a hit we aren't shown.
The big explosion is definitely the ammunition cooking off, there isn't an artillery piece in the world these days that hits that hard.

In general re: my comments about the west neglecting artillery.

Western formations generally have a lot less artillery than Russian ones, as Western forces tend to assume they'll have air supremacy - which of course they have against Iraq/Libya/Various Insurgents in the last few decades. It's not that Western artillery is bad as such, it's that its use is downplayed compared to air-launched PGM usage. Compared to attack aircraft, artillery is very cheap, especially if we insist that all attack aircraft must be stealth fighters.

The other issue is one of escalation. In the Donbas war, Ukraine was able to use the very long range of the 203mm 2S7 Pion as a workaround for restrictions on heavy equipment near the frontline (the Russians, incidentally, just ignored those Minsk treaty restrictions). To rely on airpower means assuming that it will always be possible to conduct full scale SEAD/DEAD operations. Western forces also assume airpower will be available to deal with aerial threats. Re-introducting SPAAG/SHORADS allows smaller forces to be deployed without relying on full scale air cover, and using more artillery means being able to respond quicker, within the range of the guns, and more cheaply - even guided shells are a lot cheaper than aircraft+PGMs, and often guided shells won't be needed.

While we're on the subject of artillery, apparent accounts of the Battle of Bilohorivka - where I massively underestimated Russian losses, which have now been counted as 73 pieces of heavy equipment - - talk about the Ukrainian use of heavy artillery (I'm not if this refers to 152mm, 155mm or 203mm or heavy MLRS like the BM-27 and BM-30) and even Ukrainian airpower against the Russian bridging attempt. However they did it, the ability of the Ukrainians to identify where the Russians would cross and quickly bring overwhelming firepower to bear against the Russians at the point when they were most vulnerable was decisive.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 12, 2022 6:35 pm

While we're on the subject of things the west should do, this is one of them.

Obviously Brimstone is very effective when deployed from aircraft, but being able to take a relatively small vehicle and give it that much precision firepower allows ground forces to very effectively control a wide area against all sorts of vehicles. This is a stopgap, but I know there's proposals to mount similar on a Boxer chassis, and it seems to be a good idea.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu May 12, 2022 7:31 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 6:35 pm
While we're on the subject of things the west should do, this is one of them.

Obviously Brimstone is very effective when deployed from aircraft, but being able to take a relatively small vehicle and give it that much precision firepower allows ground forces to very effectively control a wide area against all sorts of vehicles. This is a stopgap, but I know there's proposals to mount similar on a Boxer chassis, and it seems to be a good idea.
no a link to a particular tweet, just the account
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 12, 2022 7:40 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:31 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 6:35 pm
While we're on the subject of things the west should do, this is one of them.

Obviously Brimstone is very effective when deployed from aircraft, but being able to take a relatively small vehicle and give it that much precision firepower allows ground forces to very effectively control a wide area against all sorts of vehicles. This is a stopgap, but I know there's proposals to mount similar on a Boxer chassis, and it seems to be a good idea.
no a link to a particular tweet, just the account
And the wrong account, not sure how I managed that. This is the correct link. Van full of Brimstone missiles.

Of all the things I could have accidentally pasted in, an open-source mapmaker's twitter account is not the most embarassing.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu May 12, 2022 9:14 pm

It looks as though the Vsevolod Bobrov ( a logistics ship) has caught fire after being hit near Snake Island.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 13, 2022 6:20 am

In other news, a Project 11356R Frigate was seen in Sevastopol yesterday. Grey radomes, so more likely to be Admiral Makarov than Admiral Essen.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Fri May 13, 2022 8:42 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:40 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:31 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 6:35 pm
While we're on the subject of things the west should do, this is one of them.

Obviously Brimstone is very effective when deployed from aircraft, but being able to take a relatively small vehicle and give it that much precision firepower allows ground forces to very effectively control a wide area against all sorts of vehicles. This is a stopgap, but I know there's proposals to mount similar on a Boxer chassis, and it seems to be a good idea.
no a link to a particular tweet, just the account
And the wrong account, not sure how I managed that. This is the correct link. Van full of Brimstone missiles.

Of all the things I could have accidentally pasted in, an open-source mapmaker's twitter account is not the most embarassing.
I assume that's a training exercise. It can't be a good idea to crowd round with your mobile phones if counter battery fire is going to come in.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Fri May 13, 2022 10:06 am

It literally says in the tweet that it's likely to be a training exercise.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri May 13, 2022 10:06 am

A new instrument of war... the E-bike!

Looks pretty handy.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Fri May 13, 2022 10:22 am

headshot wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 10:06 am
It literally says in the tweet that it's likely to be a training exercise.
So it does. I was looking at the fireworks going whoosh.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 14, 2022 4:04 am

It looks like Israel has now allowed Estonia to transfer a state of the art Blue Spear missile complex to Ukraine. Blue Spear is a development of the Israeli Gabriel anti-shipping missile, with a range of almost 300km and the ability to hit sea and land targets, and is reportedly designed to be difficult to counter. Estonia acquired the system less than a year ago, and this would probably be the most advanced weapon transferred to Ukraine so far, more so even than Brimstone.

This will make things much, much more difficult for the Black Sea Fleet, as it puts even Sevastopol in range of Ukraine held coastline. Though it has the range to threaten the Kerch Straits bridge, it probably does not have a sufficient warhead to destroy it.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 14, 2022 8:33 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 10:06 am
A new instrument of war... the E-bike!

Looks pretty handy.
The use of small motorbikes and even bicycles in warfare goes back a very long way, both as despatch riders and ways to improve infantry mobility. Bicycles allowed troops to cover more ground for less effort, and then generally dismount, though attempts to mount weapons directly onto bicycles have happened, and of course there's armed sidecar combos. I read a genuine and serious discussion not long ago about how insurgents can overcome counter-insurgency operations by using swarms of motorcycle dragoons.

An e-bike is a logical extension of that, as it's smaller and handier than a motorcycle, faster and less effort than a bicycle, and nearly silent.

It also allows for various cycle of violence related jokes.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 14, 2022 9:49 am

Thread about the destruction of a tank deep inside Russian occupied territory

The destruction of the tank has been geolocated to Novoazovsk, occupied by Russia since 2014 and about 100km from the front line. It's not clear what destroyed it, and it could be SOF or partisans. It's also not clear how it was done, but IED and AT mine are both possibilities. The thread discusses possible use of loitering munitions. If that's the case, then Ukrainian SOF are confident in their ability to sneak deep into occupied territory.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 14, 2022 3:22 pm

I'm not in any particular state to dig out the details of what's going on yet, but there's reports that Ukraine is now conducting a counter-offensive around Izium.

Recently, Ukrainian counterattacks have driven the Russians back to the border around Kharkiv.

Directing their attention is interesting. It could be an attempt to cut off the troops that have crossed the Seversky Donets there, but it could also be an attempt to hit the largest Russian concentration of troops and bleed them white with attritional warfare.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sat May 14, 2022 6:57 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 14, 2022 8:33 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 10:06 am
A new instrument of war... the E-bike!

Looks pretty handy.
The use of small motorbikes and even bicycles in warfare goes back a very long way, both as despatch riders and ways to improve infantry mobility. Bicycles allowed troops to cover more ground for less effort, and then generally dismount, though attempts to mount weapons directly onto bicycles have happened, and of course there's armed sidecar combos. I read a genuine and serious discussion not long ago about how insurgents can overcome counter-insurgency operations by using swarms of motorcycle dragoons.

An e-bike is a logical extension of that, as it's smaller and handier than a motorcycle, faster and less effort than a bicycle, and nearly silent.

It also allows for various cycle of violence related jokes.
The Japanese used bicycles to great effect when advancing down the Malaysian peninsular against British imperial forces.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 15, 2022 5:56 am

The more that comes out about the failed river crossing at Bilohorivka, the more dramatic it appears to have been.

In footage from the ground, someone is describing about a hundred losses of Russian equipment. OSINT accounts have now identified approximately eighty, including a row of tanks driven into the river and abandoned, possibly to prevent their capture.

Judging by the amount of equipment, and by the degree to which Russian Batallion Tactical Groups are understrength, it looks like a brigade got mauled. Aside from preventing the Russian attempt to cross the Seversky Donets and encircle Lyschansk, it is an enormous loss of material and - inevitably - manpower, which Russia can ill afford at present.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 15, 2022 10:47 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 14, 2022 4:04 am
It looks like Israel has now allowed Estonia to transfer a state of the art Blue Spear missile complex to Ukraine. Blue Spear is a development of the Israeli Gabriel anti-shipping missile, with a range of almost 300km and the ability to hit sea and land targets, and is reportedly designed to be difficult to counter. Estonia acquired the system less than a year ago, and this would probably be the most advanced weapon transferred to Ukraine so far, more so even than Brimstone.

This will make things much, much more difficult for the Black Sea Fleet, as it puts even Sevastopol in range of Ukraine held coastline. Though it has the range to threaten the Kerch Straits bridge, it probably does not have a sufficient warhead to destroy it.
This was widely reported, but - much like the idea of Britain sending Harpoons - does not appear to be true, which doesn't surprise me, as Blue Spear's basically a prototype at this point. However, Estonian Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets has denied previous reports that Israel is stopping them sending weapons originally made in Israel. Perhaps the most likely is the Spike missile, but Estonia - which has gone above and beyond compared to most countries aiding Ukraine - also has more legit worries about Russian threats than most NATO countries.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun May 15, 2022 3:24 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 5:56 am
The more that comes out about the failed river crossing at Bilohorivka, the more dramatic it appears to have been.

In footage from the ground, someone is describing about a hundred losses of Russian equipment. OSINT accounts have now identified approximately eighty, including a row of tanks driven into the river and abandoned, possibly to prevent their capture.

Judging by the amount of equipment, and by the degree to which Russian Batallion Tactical Groups are understrength, it looks like a brigade got mauled. Aside from preventing the Russian attempt to cross the Seversky Donets and encircle Lyschansk, it is an enormous loss of material and - inevitably - manpower, which Russia can ill afford at present.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ent-may-14
Russian forces made significant tactical mistakes during the attempted large-scale crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna. The Russian command reportedly sent 550 servicemen of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in order to encircle Ukrainian forces near Rubizhne from the northwest.[3] Ukrainian artillery destroyed the Russian pontoon bridges and tightly-concentrated Russian troops and equipment around them on May 11, which reportedly resulted in 485 casualties and damages to over 80 pieces of equipment.[4] The 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade had previously attempted a river crossing (over the Desna River in Chernihiv Oblast on March 8) without suffering such setbacks.[5] The unit’s command and staff may have failed to recognize the dangers that Ukraine’s improving artillery capabilities posed two months later, or may simply have been incompetent or unable to control their troops.

Prominent pro-Russian Telegram channels (with approximately 300 thousand followers) largely criticized Russian General Staff for failing to learn from previous combat mistakes and expressed concern that censorship and self-censorship was depriving them of situational awareness.[6] Other pro-Russian Telegram channels noted the slow pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, blaming it in part on ineffective aerial reconnaissance and the negative effects of bad morale within the Russian military.[7] Some Telegram channels reported receiving criticism for “misrepresenting” the performance of the Russian military.[8] The Russian Defense Ministry posted a video that it claimed showed that Russian forces in turn destroyed Ukrainian pontoon crossings on May 14, although we have no independent confirmation of these claims.[9]
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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