Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:55 am

It remains unclear just how many Russians were able to get out of Lyman before Ukrainian troops got control of most of the ways out, and indeed if there are still any avenues for them to easily escape - it's not clear what's going on at the northern end of Tors'ke, for example.

That said, even without trapping substantial numbers of troops, capturing Lyman and its environs is an essential step towards the advance on Svyatove and Starobilsk.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:47 pm

Yes, there’s video which apparently shows large numbers of them getting out with their equipment. If genuine it suggests that Lyman wasn’t surrounded.
https://twitter.com/backandalive/status ... FfAR5Sxh7Q

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:58 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:47 pm
Yes, there’s video which apparently shows large numbers of them getting out with their equipment. If genuine it suggests that Lyman wasn’t surrounded.
https://twitter.com/backandalive/status ... FfAR5Sxh7Q

It's the same footage we were discussing here.


ETA: Found a proper geolocation. 49.020986773948096, 37.947773936040875 (yes I know too many significant figures). That's Zarichne, and they were heading for the bridge of the Zherebets. A bridge was reported destroyed and I think it was this one, but that would be after this convoy crossed. The convoy was reportedly filmed yesterday morning, and can't have been much later than noon Ukraine time as it was posted around 12 GMT yesterday (30-09-2022)

In general the Russians have been quite good at getting personnel out of encirclements, not to much equipment. And getting some troops out in good order isn't the same as getting all of them out. That footage is reportedly from the Zarichne end of things, which wouldn't have been in an encirclement to begin with. Time will tell.

There's also a lot of footage I won't link. It looks like a lot of largely encircled Russians chose to try and make a break for it rather than surrender and ran into ambushes/planned killzones, suffering extremely heavy losses.


(I feel like this is as good a point as any to note I try to avoid watching that sort of thing too. I go on descriptions, and where the source is unknown/not trustworthy, I'll check a few stills to confirm the accuracy of the descriptions. And if you aren't trying to directly track things, you don't need to do that)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:36 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:58 pm

ETA: Found a proper geolocation. 49.020986773948096, 37.947773936040875 (yes I know too many significant figures).
(Who doesn't need to know their location to ±10um precision*.

Ok, yes, we can do this with mm wave VLBI)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:15 pm

Someone's dropped another cigarette in Sevastopol.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:52 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:15 pm
Someone's dropped another cigarette in Sevastopol.
Goodness gracious.

And there's secondary explosions, which means we can be very confident it was a military target.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:10 pm

What’s happened?

A Google just brings up the convoy that was hit, and the news that the nuclear plant’s chief has been kidnapped.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:41 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:10 pm
What’s happened?

A Google just brings up the convoy that was hit, and the news that the nuclear plant’s chief has been kidnapped.
Stuff is blowing up at an airbase in Crimea, as seen from this beach. May not be safe for work, as a) stuff blowing up and b) Crimean beach-goers.

Russian claim is that an aircraft skidded off the runway. Might even be true.


ETA: This footage supports the Russian claim it was one of their planes overshooting the runway.. Usual warnings apply, if you don't want to watch a plane crashing, don't watch it. It's possible that this was caused by a large mysterious red circle ;)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:09 pm

According to TASS the pilot managed to evacuate.

Also, he ejected.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:32 pm

TimW wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:09 pm
According to TASS the pilot managed to evacuate.

Also, he ejected.
On the one hand they would say that.

On the other hand, some ejection seats can lift the pilot high enough for their parachute to function even when the plane is still and on the ground, so it isn't impossible.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by JQH » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:24 pm

I suspect TimW is implying the pilot shat himself.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:53 am

JQH wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:24 pm
I suspect TimW is implying the pilot shat himself.
I mean one would, wouldn't one, realising one's plane was heading straight for a cliff edge :lol:

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:09 pm

So in some ways, I think the Lyman offensive over the last couple of weeks was more impressive than the Kupyans'k-Izyum liberation, though less territory was freed.

Earlier, Ukraine found a point the Russians had barely defended, and hammered it with classic manoeuvre warfare tactics. A great victory that made exploited to the maximum the Russian weakness, yes, but with Lyman, the city was properly defended, with multiple battalions of Russians present. Despite that, the Ukrainians were able to methodically pin them in place and break through both flanks, collapsing the Russian position. A lot of prisoners were taken, and an awful lot of Russians were killed as they tried to escape rather than surrender, and above all the strategically vital city of Lyman has been liberated, protecting Slovyansk, and enabling Ukrainian forces to push on towards Kreminna (and on from there to Rubizhne and Severodonetsk, one presumes) and north towards Svatove, neither of which would have been possible with Lyman in Russian hands.

The Russian defence of Lyman, however, bought the Russians time. The question now is did they actually use that time to stiffen their defences? If not, we might see some more advances soon. That said, the Ukrainian forces are likely physically exhausted and - going by reports I've seen - mentally and morally exhausted and will need time to recover.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:18 pm

To be honest, this war is going to be won in the south. The attrition in Kherson is what counts. Unlocking territory in Luhansk has far less value than being able to threaten Crimea.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:26 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:18 pm
To be honest, this war is going to be won in the south. The attrition in Kherson is what counts. Unlocking territory in Luhansk has far less value than being able to threaten Crimea.
Although as Ukraine pushes forward in the North, it lengthens and threatens more of the Russian supply lines in the south.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:28 pm

That said, the Ukrainian forces are likely physically exhausted and - going by reports I've seen - mentally and morally exhausted and will need time to recover.
Makes sense, but arent we too close to mud season for very much more? Not sure how this works in that area - is there a frozen ground period of better mobility, or are things difficult until next late spring?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:29 pm

Keeping the Russians busy on another front is a good way to do that. I’ve seen accounts that say the Ukrainians were quite surprised at how well they did in the east. The size of that collapse will stop Russians reinforcing Kherson as well as they would otherwise, along with not a few blown up bridges.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:38 pm

Imrael wrote:
Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:28 pm
That said, the Ukrainian forces are likely physically exhausted and - going by reports I've seen - mentally and morally exhausted and will need time to recover.
Makes sense, but arent we too close to mud season for very much more? Not sure how this works in that area - is there a frozen ground period of better mobility, or are things difficult until next late spring?
Depends how hard the ground freezes. Usually there is a frozen period, though last winter things didn't freeze very hard and there was more mud than usual.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:40 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:18 pm
To be honest, this war is going to be won in the south. The attrition in Kherson is what counts. Unlocking territory in Luhansk has far less value than being able to threaten Crimea.
Liberating territory in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk is a worthy goal in its own right. It also draws Russian reinforcements away from the south, puts political pressure on the Russians, demonstrates to western allies that Ukraine can win - which in turn unlocks more military aid - and lays the groundwork for the liberation of the territories occupied since 2014 in the east.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is still advancing in the south. There seems to have been a bit of a push along the west bank of the Dnipro in the last few days.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:32 pm

Speaking of the south...

Image

Novovorontsovka, Kherson oblast. There's also news of the liberation of Zolota Balka, and Russian sources put Ukrainian troops in Bilyaivka and Shevchenkivka, which would mean a 10-15km advance since I last knew where they were, but then there's a very tight hold on information in the south.

This would also mean that Dnipropetrovsk oblast is cleared of occupiers, not that they ever had more than a toehold there anyway.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:14 pm

lpm wrote:
Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:18 pm
To be honest, this war is going to be won in the south. The attrition in Kherson is what counts. Unlocking territory in Luhansk has far less value than being able to threaten Crimea.
And again, with Russia probably expending more ammunition than they're getting in that area, eventually they'll be forced to scale back their fighting there.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:29 pm

JQH wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:24 pm
I suspect TimW is implying the pilot shat himself.
Indeed, but it was TASS wot said it https://tass.com/russia/1516519

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:06 pm

Nothing solid yet beyond what I've posted, but all eyes on northeastern Kherson oblast right now.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:09 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:32 pm
Speaking of the south...

Image

Novovorontsovka, Kherson oblast. There's also news of the liberation of Zolota Balka, and Russian sources put Ukrainian troops in Bilyaivka and Shevchenkivka, which would mean a 10-15km advance since I last knew where they were, but then there's a very tight hold on information in the south.

This would also mean that Dnipropetrovsk oblast is cleared of occupiers, not that they ever had more than a toehold there anyway.
What is piled up around the statue?

It looks the sort of shape I assume anti tank mines often have, but the colours look far too bright.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:32 pm

My question ^^ was answered in this video by Radio Free Europe - yes, antitank mines.


https://twitter.com/Andrew_S_Bowen/stat ... NmbthTvtPA
A good look into 🇺🇦 tactics. Coordinated use of infantry, supported by tanks and coordinated with real time intelligence from drones. Effective use of combined arms against rigid and inflexible 🇷🇺 Russian forces with poor support
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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