Blyatskrieg

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Woodchopper
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:32 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:53 am

IF there are Russians left in Kherson city, and it could well be there aren't many, they are in the deepest of sh.t.
Which is a big if. They presumably withdrew as much as they could before the announcement.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:46 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:32 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:53 am

IF there are Russians left in Kherson city, and it could well be there aren't many, they are in the deepest of sh.t.
Which is a big if. They presumably withdrew as much as they could before the announcement.
Yes. There's evidence of it going back weeks, things like removing the vehicles dug in at Chornobaivka. But they also moved troops in as well.

And there were five figure numbers of Russian troops in the area until close to the end. And that number could only be drawn down so much - if a frontline cracked, then all bets were off, and the population in Kherson have not been docile and obedient, but instead have reportedly been killing drunk soldiers with knives. That would mean they needed a garrison.

And they all had to get across a few crossings. Specifically, troops on foot could have got across the Antonivsky bridge before it was blown. Possibly some vehicles, but last documented convoy over the bridge saw a truck go into a big hole that may well have opened under it. Then there's the rail bridge. No chance of running trains or vehicles, but troops could probably have fled on foot over it. Then there's the most solid crossing, at Nova Kakhovka. The road bridge is damaged in places, but not badly enough to stop trucks, not sure about tanks. The lock bridge is gone, but there's a crossing made by piling rubble into the lock. Other than that, there's ferries. Attempts to build a pontoon bridge out of barges were thwarted when the barges were shelled. That creates a very significant bottleneck in the evacuation routes.

All of these crossings will have been under fire. The western ones were within artillery range for months, the Nova Kakhovka crossings under artillery range from some point yesterday at the latest. And all within range of GMLRS - I wouldn't want to be forced to flee on foot across a bridge when the enemy has rockets tipped with 188000 tungsten spheres.

There's also talk that units left as a rearguard to cover the evacuation fled, so they may not have had as much time to evacuate as they needed, and a mess of different units all trying to flee through the same constricted routes doesn't lead to the most efficient evacuation either.

So trying to evacuate and managing to evacuate are different things, and the situation on the ground is unclear, and won't become clear for a while yet.

The other big question was were they ready to go when the order was announced? Had they planned it in advance, or had they not finished preparing when their hand was forced by the Ukrainian lodgement in Snihurivka?

I emphasised if, because it really is unclear. The Russians have done quite a good job at escaping before, even in routs, but then they didn't fact an obstacle like the Dnipro then. The Russians will have tried to minimise how many people got left behind, but at the same time, Russian telegram channels are quoting numbers between five and twenty thousand for those trapped.

And that's before we even look at materiel. Last time the line moved in Kherson, the news of captured materiel filtered out over subsequent weeks. We've already seen a SAM system - something that shouldn't be captured normally - captured, and a T-90, meaning the Russian retreat clearly wasn't as orderly as their MOD would have wanted.

There's also footage confirming the Ukrainians are using truck mounted LRADs - Long Range Acoustic Devices - this is probably to encourage surrender, and they used more conventional truck-mounted speakers for this role round Lyman, where most of the Russians didn't surrender and a lot were cut down trying to flee. On the other hand, perhaps they are just using them to take the piss out of the fleeing Russians?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:56 am

For an idea of what the retreating Russians are facing, I'm seeing more of this sort of thing than I have in a long time.

Ukrainian forces using Warsaw Pact type area-attack massed MLRS

There's also footage of a Ukrainian Uragan battery firing off a full salvo. That kind of attack blankets a large area with explosives, and generally means that everyone in the open in the area hit is in extreme danger. If that kind of firepower is aimed at troops queueing for the ferries or the very limited bridges...

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:57 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:46 am
On the other hand, perhaps they are just using them to take the piss out of the fleeing Russians?
What's Ukrainian for "you can run, but you'll die tired?"*

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:59 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:56 am
If that kind of firepower is aimed at troops queueing for the ferries or the very limited bridges...
More likely will be aimed at the left bank areas after the crossing points... before they reach their defensive lines.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:31 am

Russia's claiming all troops evacuated and no military equipment left behind at all.

Judging by the accuracy of their previous claims we can expect to see tens of thousands of POWs, the capture of hundreds of tanks, several Tu-95 strategic bombers and a Sarmat transport-erector-launcher complete with missile.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:25 am

Chaikyne confirmed liberated. Again it's a "Ukrainian troops and flag raising in liberated village footage" type confirmation, and these appear to be released late, for very obvious reasons. As Chaikyne is only 15km north of the M14 between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, I would be unsurprised if Ukrainian troops coming down from the north had reached the Dnipro in this area.

Also reports of Russian soldiers changing into civilian clothes to flee. That worked from Izium - but the river they had to cross was fordable in a way the Dnipro just isn't.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:35 am

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko reports Ukrainian troops already in Kherson city. Some footage possibly supports that. This is like watching thirty thousand men run a race.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:30 pm

More updates. So it seems Russian troops did manage to flee on foot over the barge-bridge next to the Antonovsky bridge. Not sure why they chose that rather than the bridge, as it was still passable on foot at that point, I think. Not sure how many, either - snapshot footage of a few dozen troops doesn't always mean that much when four or five figure numbers are involved.

Ukrainian troops are in Beryslav. That means they'll be at the Nova Kakhovka dam soon, one thinks, possibly they are there already. Footage from Kherson, meanwhile, shows civilians and no Russian troops, but no Ukrainian ones either.

It is important to remember that the precise details of the retreat - which is widely perceived as a rout at least among many pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers and other observers - are less important than the liberation of Kherson, which was achieved by the Armed Forces of Ukraine by military means. There is a military solution to this problem, and it should be further pursued until the problem is unproblemmed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:51 pm

Yes. It's easy to state that once the bridges could be hit, Kherson was unviable for Russia. A lot harder to turn that destiny into the actual victory.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:56 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:51 pm
Yes. It's easy to state that once the bridges could be hit, Kherson was unviable for Russia. A lot harder to turn that destiny into the actual victory.
Especially as they had to combine that with holding against Russian attacks in the east and probing to see what gains could be made elsewhere. If they'd allocated everything to Kherson, the east would have been overrun, and the brilliant offensive to liberate Izium and Kupyansk would never have been possible.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by plodder » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:25 pm

JQH wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:15 pm
plodder wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:39 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:35 am
Ukraine is going to suffer huge losses, with the pain lasting for generations thanks to PTSD echoing down.

The way to prevent this is to prevent wars from starting by intimidating bullies like Putin. And when they start, end them fast and hard. Supply as much as you can dare, rather than the pathetic western handouts. The West is responsible for a proportion of these casualties, in a knowing and immoral way.

This is what Plodder never understands. A Russian tank blowing up is a shortening of war and a reduction in suffering.
err what I don't understand is why comfy Home Counties tw.ts get so hyped on the gory detail. Actually I do think I understand it, but every time I say it the post gets reported.
I don't recall any one getting "hyped on the gory detail". Maybe we were reading different posts. Or reading different things into the same posts. I was reading attempts to explain the properties of modern weapons. You appeared to be reading ... something else which frankly was more a reflection of your mental processes than those of your target.
Sorry to bust into your safe space buddy but there are elements to this conversation that are Not Completely Normal

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:30 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:25 pm
JQH wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:15 pm
plodder wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:39 pm


err what I don't understand is why comfy Home Counties tw.ts get so hyped on the gory detail. Actually I do think I understand it, but every time I say it the post gets reported.
I don't recall any one getting "hyped on the gory detail". Maybe we were reading different posts. Or reading different things into the same posts. I was reading attempts to explain the properties of modern weapons. You appeared to be reading ... something else which frankly was more a reflection of your mental processes than those of your target.
Sorry to bust into your safe space buddy but there are elements to this conversation that are Not Completely Normal
We're well aware of that. There's this extremely stupid twerp who keeps popping up every time Ukraine notably advances to have a tantrum about people who know about things and are pleased a fascist invasion is being thwarted.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:30 pm

Chornobaivka has been liberated. I wonder if we'll ever learn just how many helicopters were schwacked there?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:37 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:25 am
Chaikyne confirmed liberated. Again it's a "Ukrainian troops and flag raising in liberated village footage" type confirmation, and these appear to be released late, for very obvious reasons. As Chaikyne is only 15km north of the M14 between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, I would be unsurprised if Ukrainian troops coming down from the north had reached the Dnipro in this area.
Tyahynka is confirmed liberated. Ukrainian troops are at the Dnipro between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka.
Also reports of Russian soldiers changing into civilian clothes to flee. That worked from Izium - but the river they had to cross was fordable in a way the Dnipro just isn't.
This is supported by footage showing abandonded uniforms at what were once Russian positions.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:53 pm

If I was Russian, I'd abandon my uniform sharpish. Then I'd nick a washing machine, hide for a couple of days, realise I can no longer lug a washing machine around and surrender to Ukraine. Then try to nick one of the washing machines in the POW camp.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Herainestold » Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:53 pm
If I was Russian, I'd abandon my uniform sharpish. Then I'd nick a washing machine, hide for a couple of days, realise I can no longer lug a washing machine around and surrender to Ukraine. Then try to nick one of the washing machines in the POW camp.
Maybe the West could persuade Russian soldiers to go home by offering to supply them with washing machines.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Opti » Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:45 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:44 pm


Maybe the West could persuade Russian soldiers to go home by offering to supply them with washing machines.
f.ck me, the first sensible post from the resident tankie.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:49 pm

Opti wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:45 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:44 pm


Maybe the West could persuade Russian soldiers to go home by offering to supply them with washing machines.
f.ck me, the first sensible post from the resident tankie.
Although completely delusional as to the state of the corrupt kleptocracy that is Russia.

Does anyone really think that Russian soldiers could get washing machines home and keep them without paying massive bribes?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:05 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:49 pm
Opti wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:45 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:44 pm


Maybe the West could persuade Russian soldiers to go home by offering to supply them with washing machines.
f.ck me, the first sensible post from the resident tankie.
Although completely delusional as to the state of the corrupt kleptocracy that is Russia.

Does anyone really think that Russian soldiers could get washing machines home and keep them without paying massive bribes?
I realize they are looting them, but I'm not sure they've thought that all the way through, and it'll be easier to bribe their transport home if they are looted and the soldiers are still enlisted, rather than if they were accepted in payment for desertion.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:27 pm

I've tried to smuggle a washing machine back from Tenerife in my hand luggage. It's not as easy as you'd think.

Meanwhile, I'm guessing it will take days, or even weeks, to round up Russian conscripts who've sensibly hidden away in Kherson? And even to uncover all the military vehicles and ammo stocks hidden in garages and basements. I'm thinking it will take a while before we know the full scale of the victory.

I also think we might be learning about where bodies in the Dnipro wash up.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Herainestold » Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:08 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:05 pm
dyqik wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:49 pm
Opti wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:45 pm


f.ck me, the first sensible post from the resident tankie.
Although completely delusional as to the state of the corrupt kleptocracy that is Russia.

Does anyone really think that Russian soldiers could get washing machines home and keep them without paying massive bribes?
I realize they are looting them, but I'm not sure they've thought that all the way through, and it'll be easier to bribe their transport home if they are looted and the soldiers are still enlisted, rather than if they were accepted in payment for desertion.
Earlier in the conflict, during the retreat from Kyiv, Russian soldiers were sending washing machines back to their homes, using Belarusan delivery services.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:19 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:51 pm
Heard an analyst today on the news say that blowing the dam near Kherson would also damage Crimea's water supply... and flood much more strongly on the east of the river (where the Russian defensive positions are).

So here's hoping the Russian's don't do anything stupid with the dam.

Also sounds like the fighting is kicking up a notch near Kreminna which is important for control of a key road. If Ukraine takes this apparently other Russian positions become untenable and their whole line may need to drop back another 40km.
May not have blown the dam (as of posting) but the f.ckers have destroyed the sluice gates.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:04 pm

Opti wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:45 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:44 pm


Maybe the West could persuade Russian soldiers to go home by offering to supply them with washing machines.
f.ck me, the first sensible post from the resident tankie.
In a shock twist, negotiations lead by Dale Winton.

"But don't worry - nobody goes home empty-handed. You've won this top-of-the-range Zanussi washing machine!"
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:33 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:04 pm
Opti wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:45 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:44 pm


Maybe the West could persuade Russian soldiers to go home by offering to supply them with washing machines.
f.ck me, the first sensible post from the resident tankie.
In a shock twist, negotiations lead by Dale Winton.
That would be a shock considering he’s been dead for well over four years.

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