Blyatskrieg

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monkey
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by monkey » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:03 pm

headshot wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:33 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:04 pm
Opti wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:45 pm


f.ck me, the first sensible post from the resident tankie.
In a shock twist, negotiations lead by Dale Winton.
That would be a shock considering he’s been dead for well over four years.
How about Jim Bowen then?

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:51 pm

headshot wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:33 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:04 pm
Opti wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:45 pm


f.ck me, the first sensible post from the resident tankie.
In a shock twist, negotiations lead by Dale Winton.
That would be a shock considering he’s been dead for well over four years.
Man, what a way to find out
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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:14 pm

Today's been rough, but the impotent tears of rage from online vatniks sustain me.

That and the footage of the liberation, and of Ukrainians dancing round a fire and singing Oi Luzi Chervona Kalyna.

Ok, mostly the latter. But some of the former, too.

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Grumble
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:25 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:19 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:51 pm
Heard an analyst today on the news say that blowing the dam near Kherson would also damage Crimea's water supply... and flood much more strongly on the east of the river (where the Russian defensive positions are).

So here's hoping the Russian's don't do anything stupid with the dam.

Also sounds like the fighting is kicking up a notch near Kreminna which is important for control of a key road. If Ukraine takes this apparently other Russian positions become untenable and their whole line may need to drop back another 40km.
May not have blown the dam (as of posting) but the f.ckers have destroyed the sluice gates.

Image
I don’t know much about civil engineering. I understand that a sluice gate allows control over the amount of water that a dam retains. What are the practical implications of the sluice gates being damaged? If they’re badly enough damaged will they cause the dam to fail?
A bit churlish

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:34 pm

Think it just means the dam won't be able to hold water. So no reserves upstream and potentially flooding downstream.

ETA Reuters also giving flooding as the major risk
Both sides have repeatedly accused each of planning to breach the dam using explosives, which would flood much of the area downstream and would likely cause major destruction around Kherson.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ne ... 022-11-11/
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:54 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:34 pm
Think it just means the dam won't be able to hold water. So no reserves upstream and potentially flooding downstream.

ETA Reuters also giving flooding as the major risk
Both sides have repeatedly accused each of planning to breach the dam using explosives, which would flood much of the area downstream and would likely cause major destruction around Kherson.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ne ... 022-11-11/
That’s if the dam is breached. I’m not clear on whether the damage to the sluice gates amounts to a breach.
A bit churlish

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:01 am

Grumble wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:25 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:19 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:51 pm
Heard an analyst today on the news say that blowing the dam near Kherson would also damage Crimea's water supply... and flood much more strongly on the east of the river (where the Russian defensive positions are).

So here's hoping the Russian's don't do anything stupid with the dam.

Also sounds like the fighting is kicking up a notch near Kreminna which is important for control of a key road. If Ukraine takes this apparently other Russian positions become untenable and their whole line may need to drop back another 40km.
May not have blown the dam (as of posting) but the f.ckers have destroyed the sluice gates.

Image
I don’t know much about civil engineering. I understand that a sluice gate allows control over the amount of water that a dam retains. What are the practical implications of the sluice gates being damaged? If they’re badly enough damaged will they cause the dam to fail?
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Powerplant, already in crisis due to the Russian occupation and their behaviour during it, uses that reservoir for cooling.

Not sure how much it will drain with the sluice gates destroyed, but it knocks out the hydro power plant for the forseeable future - for context, that's a powerplant with a turbine capacity of nearly 360MW and an annual output of 1.4TWh.

Absolutely senseless vandalism. It does very little to affect the passability of the bridge, just destruction for the f.cking sake of it.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:14 am

Possibly early days but I haven’t seen much evidence of captured Russian working equipment or large ammunition stocks. Both of which were present in abundance after previous Ukrainian advances.

There are though pictures of lots of destroyed vehicles that have been discovered by the Ukrainians.

Two explanations come to mind.

The Russians may have been able to conduct an orderly retreat and got their equipment and stores out.

Alternatively, supply problems were so bad that the Russian forces around Kherson had almost nothing left by the time they got their men out.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:17 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:14 am
Possibly early days but I haven’t seen much evidence of captured Russian working equipment or large ammunition stocks. Both of which were present in abundance after previous Ukrainian advances.

There are though pictures of lots of destroyed vehicles that have been discovered by the Ukrainians.

Two explanations come to mind.

The Russians may have been able to conduct an orderly retreat and got their equipment and stores out.

Alternatively, supply problems were so bad that the Russian forces around Kherson had almost nothing left by the time they got their men out.
There's some. There was a big haul of 125mm tank ammunition, a T-90 captured, some T-62s captured, and a few APCs at least. I think it's a bit of both. It looks more like previous retreats in Kherson than the routs in Kharkiv oblast, but that said, it took time for the losses from the previous movement of the frontlines in Kherson to show up. I'd say keep an eye on Oryx over the next couple of weeks and see what happens.

And regardless, Ukraine forced the abandonment of some formiddably fortified positions and took them without assault. That's a huge victory.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:20 am

I’ve seen some (unverified) footage of Russians destroying their equipment as they fled, rather than allowing it to fall into the hands of the Ukrainians.

It’s all a bit “Dunkirk”…

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:32 pm

Reports of fighting underway in the Kinburn peninsula
https://twitter.com/alexandruc4/status/ ... 2yfzTBhvqA

That’s on the south bank below Kherson. Looks like Ukraine is in pursuit.

ETA more of a gulf than a river there.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:34 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:20 am
I’ve seen some (unverified) footage of Russians destroying their equipment as they fled, rather than allowing it to fall into the hands of the Ukrainians.

It’s all a bit “Dunkirk”…
Yes, some examples of that in this thread: https://twitter.com/massdara/status/159 ... 2yfzTBhvqA

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TimW
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:56 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:32 pm
Reports of fighting underway in the Kinburn peninsula
https://twitter.com/alexandruc4/status/ ... 2yfzTBhvqA

That’s on the south bank below Kherson. Looks like Ukraine is in pursuit.

ETA more of a gulf than a river there.
That sounds a bit ambitious. Or is it just a raid?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin_B » Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:07 pm

TimW wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:56 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:32 pm
Reports of fighting underway in the Kinburn peninsula
https://twitter.com/alexandruc4/status/ ... 2yfzTBhvqA

That’s on the south bank below Kherson. Looks like Ukraine is in pursuit.

ETA more of a gulf than a river there.
That sounds a bit ambitious. Or is it just a raid?
Establishing a viable beachhead with a secure re-supply route would be difficult, but raids might draw Russian forces away from the front-line in other areas. TBH, I'd expect Ukraine to treat that area much as the British did with the Channel Islands in WW2; the Germans spent considerable resources building defenses because they assumed the British would want to recapture them ASAP, but Churchill ignored them during and after the Normandy landings and when they were cut off from German re-supply he starved them out.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:41 pm

KINBURN?!?!?!

If reports are accurate, and they are vague right now, I'd assume no more than a raid. Even a raid would be really quite something.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:52 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:41 pm
KINBURN?!?!?!

If reports are accurate, and they are vague right now, I'd assume no more than a raid. Even a raid would be really quite something.
Could possibly help establish a beachhead on the left bank though.
A bit churlish

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:02 am

Odd spot for it if they have tried to set up a beachhead. Supplying it and breaking out from there will both be bl..dy difficult.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:05 am

People are saying it's more accessible by boat than land.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:20 am

So what’s the point of taking it? You land there from across the strait and then what? It’s a skinny spit that leads to a peninsula where you are easily bottled up. Resupply by boat across the straight with no port, rather than rod or rail.

A raid to prove that you stick it to the Russians is fine. Taking it is crazy.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:01 am

bjn wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:20 am
So what’s the point of taking it? You land there from across the strait and then what? It’s a skinny spit that leads to a peninsula where you are easily bottled up. Resupply by boat across the straight with no port, rather than rod or rail.

A raid to prove that you stick it to the Russians is fine. Taking it is crazy.
That's my take, but I suppose you could do something utterly and preposterously daring, like landing a HIMARS there briefly and emptying out a pod of GMLRS at the spots that can't be reached from the right bank.

I don't know the geography perfectly in that area re: ease of access by boat and by land, but in general, if Ukraine get a bridgehead there, they face the same challenges the Russians faced on the right bank, barring something special happening.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:47 am

Og ignore the HIMARS thing - it was a deliberately wild suggestion, but it would be all the more outlandish given that I've actually looked at the map again and realised Kinburn wouldn't get you closer to anything.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:41 pm

So, Kinburn. I don't know what's going on there. Nor really does anyone not involved, and they aren't telling.

So this is speculation. This is one approach that might be taken. It cannot and must not be taken as claims that any of this has happened, is happening or will happening. I still think raiding at most is the most likely situation with Kinburn.

But what if it isn't? What would be the point of liberating and garrisoning Kinburn? The best answer I can come up with is to tie down an awful lot of Russians. Kinburn hasn't got much connection to the mainland. Let's say for a moment that Ukraine can get a toehold. Then what? Resupply is the first difficulty that comes to mind, but it might not be as hard as expected. If Kinburn is liberated and held, then the crossing from Mykolaiv to Kinburn isn't actually that near the Russians. Small vessels, especially moving at night, helicopters and cargo drones all have the potential to provide some supply. To interdict this, Russia would need to overfly Kinburn, which, if garrisoned, would be crawling with MANPADS, and it's close enough to mainland that anything flying too high for MANPADS is going to be a target for conventional SAMs operating from Mykolaiv and Kherson. The amount of supplies that could be brought wouldn't support a large, manouevring mechanised force, but a smaller, lighter force could still be very useful.

As for defending them from ground assault, the terrain does a lot of that. Though they would be likely shelled, artillery firing against Kinburn would be within range of GMLRS and potentially weapons like M982 Excalibur guided artillery shells fired from north of the Dnipro. The range advantage offered by such weapons is key here. If a force garrisoning Kinburn digs in, and is suitably provided with anti-tank missiles and anti-air missiles, they could be very difficult to dislodge.

But what would they be achieving by being there? The answer's fairly simple; Russia wouldn't be able to turn their back on them. Such a force would be able to hold a beachhead and allow more equipment to be moved across, potentially quite quickly, so if Russia didn't position a comparatively large force to block them, they would be able to enable a Ukrainian breakout, the sort of lightning tactics with small, light units that did so much damage in Kharkiv. That could cost Russia the south, so they can't afford to let it happen. That means a blocking force is sitting opposite Kinburn, potentially getting shelled, and, crucially, not doing anything else. That means Ukraine will face fewer occupiers if they move on Melitopol or Mariupol.

I still think it's unlikely, I just wanted to think through the implications.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:26 pm

It’s only a few kilometres across the Dnipro to Ukrainian held territory, so they can shell the whole peninsula with a 152mm howitzer from across the straight, no need for the expensive long range stuff.

Your speculation could be right, threaten a flank and keep some number of Russians tied down. But logistically it would be difficult to break out of, so can’t be a serious threat, which a Russian commander should know.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:04 am

It'd help secure the sea access to Mykolaiv, which seems to have substantial docks and railway links on the Kherson side of the estuary. There look to be an awful lot of grain silos there in Google maps.

Mykolaiv is also more directly connected to the heart of Ukraine than Odessa, by river as well as land.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:32 pm

It looks as though some of the Russian prefabricated "bunkers" were genuinely concrete septic tanks.


https://twitter.com/mr_gh0stly/status/1 ... T_Gu-onylg
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