Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainian Sukhoi-27 chasing after a Russian cruise missile

First link is borked.

Link text and url were swapped around.

I'm riding out another medial head dislocation with the aid of a lot of benzos. Mistakes at this point inevitable.

[EACLucifer]

First link is borked.

I would have thought even a WWII era fighter would have been sufficient to catch up to and bring those drones down. Fast jets and AA missiles are overkill, a fast propeller plane with a canon should do it. A Supertucano or similar. Canon rounds are way cheaper than a Sidewinders and the drones are dumb with have no countermeasures.

On the one hand, planes like the Tempest shot down V1s.

On the other hand, prop planes are still very vulnerable to flying into debris. To aim guns on a plane, you have to fly at the target, unless you are thinking of reviving the Bolton Paul Defiant or something. And if you are, that can't be done fast.

In the missile shootdown, you can see the quite impressive off-axis capabilities of the R-73. There's a reason for doing it that way, though, and that's protecting the launching aircraft, in this case a MiG-29.

In the long run, there'll be other approaches to dealing with this sort of threat. Fibre lasers come to mind, and indeed are in trials - Iron Beam - and a lot of nations are looking at gun-based SHORADS, but for now, what Ukraine needs is a weapon to take this stuff down without risking their pilots. Ground based systems are one approach, but to do it with guns would need several hundred gun positions. Even IRIS-T and NASAMS won't cover everywhere, so the jets will be filling in the gaps. That and IRIS-T and NASAMS fire missiles that likely cost more than Sidewinders. There's a lot of Sidewinders been made. R-73s would do the job, were more available, but they aren't.

The thing to consider isn't the cost of the drone being intercepted. It's the value of what that drone would otherwise hit.

[bjn]

True on the last point. But cheaper effective air defence means more of it, so less get through, or being able to spend more on other things.

[EACLucifer]

True on the last point. But cheaper effective air defence means more of it, so less get through, or being able to spend more on other things.

Yes, it's a real priority for R&D right now, I just don't see something getting into service and into Ukraine quick enough. The Gepards are apparently doing some of the work, but each one can only cover a few kilometres of frontline, so it would take many hundreds to create an effective AA cordon.

[Grumble]

Set a drone to catch a drone? Chase drone needs to be faster than attack drone and capable of launching air to air missile or just flying into it, if cheap enough.

[bjn]

First link is borked.

I would have thought even a WWII era fighter would have been sufficient to catch up to and bring those drones down. Fast jets and AA missiles are overkill, a fast propeller plane with a canon should do it. A Supertucano or similar. Canon rounds are way cheaper than a Sidewinders and the drones are dumb with have no countermeasures.

On the one hand, planes like the Tempest shot down V1s.

On the other hand, prop planes are still very vulnerable to flying into debris. To aim guns on a plane, you have to fly at the target, unless you are thinking of reviving the Bolton Paul Defiant or something. And if you are, that can't be done fast.

In the missile shootdown, you can see the quite impressive off-axis capabilities of the R-73. There's a reason for doing it that way, though, and that's protecting the launching aircraft, in this case a MiG-29.

In the long run, there'll be other approaches to dealing with this sort of threat. Fibre lasers come to mind, and indeed are in trials - Iron Beam - and a lot of nations are looking at gun-based SHORADS, but for now, what Ukraine needs is a weapon to take this stuff down without risking their pilots. Ground based systems are one approach, but to do it with guns would need several hundred gun positions. Even IRIS-T and NASAMS won't cover everywhere, so the jets will be filling in the gaps. That and IRIS-T and NASAMS fire missiles that likely cost more than Sidewinders. There's a lot of Sidewinders been made. R-73s would do the job, were more available, but they aren't.

The thing to consider isn't the cost of the drone being intercepted. It's the value of what that drone would otherwise hit.

Attack helicopters generally have turreted canons/miniguns and fly can faster than a Shahed 136, which tops out around 120mph. Fly off to one side and blat the thing out of the sky. They may have even done it.

[TimW]

Attack helicopters generally have turreted canons/miniguns and fly can faster than a Shahed 136, which tops out around 120mph. Fly off to one side and blat the thing out of the sky. They may have even done it.

If you've got attack helicopters everywhere that's fine, but otherwise don't you need something much faster to get there quick?
But generally it doesn't seem like an insurmountable problem, I expect they'll sort it out even without our help.

[EACLucifer]

Attack helicopters generally have turreted canons/miniguns and fly can faster than a Shahed 136, which tops out around 120mph. Fly off to one side and blat the thing out of the sky. They may have even done it.

If you've got attack helicopters everywhere that's fine, but otherwise don't you need something much faster to get there quick?
But generally it doesn't seem like an insurmountable problem, I expect they'll sort it out even without our help.

Fast jets with air-to-air missiles works as a solution. The Saudis found that too, using F-15s in their case.

The key is that they can a) cover a larger area than a slower aircraft because if they need to get from one end of their patrol zone to the other in a hurry, they can turn on the afterburners and b) they can keep up with conventional jet powered cruise missiles as well as the Iranian propellor ones.

But Ukraine hasn't got that many fast jets, and does not have an inexhaustable supply of air-to-air missiles, hence my comment about Sidewinders, as even the older models, if they are still functional, would do just fine for this job. It's possible that IRIS-T's air launched variants or ASRAAM would do the trick, too, but Sidewinder has a very simple interface with the aircraft, making integration easier.

[EACLucifer]

Eyes on Kherson oblast, everyone.



An account I generally trust is reporting the Ukrainian MOD claiming the Russians have abandoned defensive positions at Charivne and Chkalove. If true, it doesn't mean Ukraine's liberated them, but if they were to, it would be an advance of ca15km, and an advance that would threaten all remaining Russian positions in northeastern Kherson with encirclement.

I'd want much more solid evidence before making any confident claims, but with the Russians transporting looted vehicles over the Dnipro and laying the groundwork for breaking the news of the loss of Kherson to their public, it's really worth keeping an eye on.

Oh, and the barge bridge seems to have had a visit from GMLRS.

[Martin_B]

Eyes on Kherson oblast, everyone.



An account I generally trust is reporting the Ukrainian MOD claiming the Russians have abandoned defensive positions at Charivne and Chkalove. If true, it doesn't mean Ukraine's liberated them, but if they were to, it would be an advance of ca15km, and an advance that would threaten all remaining Russian positions in northeastern Kherson with encirclement.

I'd want much more solid evidence before making any confident claims, but with the Russians transporting looted vehicles over the Dnipro and laying the groundwork for breaking the news of the loss of Kherson to their public, it's really worth keeping an eye on.

Oh, and the barge bridge seems to have had a visit from GMLRS.

That would suggest to me that the Russians have built new defensive positions on the southern side of the Nova Kakhovka dam and are withdrawing troops from east of the Inhulets River over the dam while they can rather than risk a rout and big loss of vehicles (and troops) should the Ukrainians make a big push. Better to do it now, before travel gets too difficult, than try and maintain a small bridgehead with difficult supply lines over the winter.

The officer who made the order may suffer an attack of windows, though.

It also either leaves Kherson in an effective siege from 3 sides, or a similar withdrawl may be made from Kherson (which as you say has been hinted at by the Russian media with advice for citizens (ie, Ukrainian civilians) to 'withdraw' to Russia) before the winter hits.

[Woodchopper]

Several of reports of widespread looting from in and around Kherson. Gives the impression that they’re preparing to leave.

[jimbob]

Several of reports of widespread looting from in and around Kherson. Gives the impression that they’re preparing to leave.

Videos too

[FlammableFlower]

Video, geolocated, of an explosion 1000 km east of Moscow at Perm where there is an ammo factory that had scaled up to work 3 shifts to supply gunpowder for Russian grads and smerch.

Also, more Russian airforce planes are falling out of the sky, again in the east of the country.

[headshot]

Reports of spontaneous hair curling within a 5km perimeter of the plant are unfounded.

[TimW]

Video, geolocated, of an explosion 1000 km east of Moscow at Perm where there is an ammo factory that had scaled up to work 3 shifts to supply gunpowder for Russian grads and smerch.

Is this real? There doesn't seem to be much news about it, and some of what there is makes it sound fairly minor.
Apparently there was a proper explosion there back on 1st May, I'm just wondering if the two incidents might have got conflated.

[Turdly]

Video, geolocated, of an explosion 1000 km east of Moscow at Perm where there is an ammo factory that had scaled up to work 3 shifts to supply gunpowder for Russian grads and smerch.

Is this real? There doesn't seem to be much news about it, and some of what there is makes it sound fairly minor.
Apparently there was a proper explosion there back on 1st May, I'm just wondering if the two incidents might have got conflagrated.

FTFY

[jdc]

Video, geolocated, of an explosion 1000 km east of Moscow at Perm where there is an ammo factory that had scaled up to work 3 shifts to supply gunpowder for Russian grads and smerch.

Is this real? There doesn't seem to be much news about it, and some of what there is makes it sound fairly minor.
Apparently there was a proper explosion there back on 1st May, I'm just wondering if the two incidents might have got conflated.

According to this https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/23/7373082/ the new incident was a fire that killed two and injured one, and the May incident was an explosion that killed two and injured one.

[EACLucifer]

Russ spent months attacking Bakhmut. Advancing at rate of 10s of metres/day. Just as propaganda tw.ts start to gloat about capturing city, Ukraine knock them back several km in a day. Wagner c.nts bled terribly for each advance, never got closer than the outskirts.

[sTeamTraen]

Large fire just outside St Petersburg. I just heard a claim that this is in an industrial estate that houses, among others, a company that specialises in military rail logistics. (Geolocalisation)

[Woodchopper]

Thread on a French perspective on what Russia has done wrong and Ukraine done right: https://twitter.com/michaelshurkin/stat ... sMP4CFjdLw

[FlammableFlower]

Russian units are waaaaaaay undermanned: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/15 ... 2440545284

[sTeamTraen]

Russian units are waaaaaaay undermanned: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/15 ... 2440545284

I've always wondered about this when reading about military organisation. I'd read a report saying that troops deployed in "battalion strength" and I'd wonder what a battalion was, and find out that depending on the army it was between 300 and 600 people (or whatever) — at the establishment level, never mind after attrition — and it always seemed like having 2x as many soldiers ought to weigh quite heavily, versus saying "Well we have two [of our 300-man] battalions and the enemy has only one [of their 600-man version]".

I appreciate that one deploys force in certain units (e.g., brigades or battalions; it seems that regiments are more ceremonial), but there presumably has to be some extent to which the numbers of people firing guns within those units makes a difference. A company with 6 to 8 soldiers seems unlikely to impress anybody even if someone is carrying their Special Company Banner.

[jimbob]

Russian units are waaaaaaay undermanned: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/15 ... 2440545284

Yup from the Reuters report




https://www.reuters.com/investigates/sp ... ssia-base/

Faced with increased Ukrainian attacks, the Balakliia command set about drafting in more troops, according to daily reports and records in the staff officer’s handwritten notebook. Yet a spreadsheet dated Aug. 30 showed that the force was at only 71% of full strength. Some units were far worse off, according to the same spreadsheet. The 2nd assault battalion had 49 personnel. It should have had 240. The 9th BARS brigade, an irregular unit, was at 23% of its intended manpower.

[FlammableFlower]

Russian units are waaaaaaay undermanned: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/15 ... 2440545284

I've always wondered about this when reading about military organisation. I'd read a report saying that troops deployed in "battalion strength" and I'd wonder what a battalion was, and find out that depending on the army it was between 300 and 600 people (or whatever) — at the establishment level, never mind after attrition — and it always seemed like having 2x as many soldiers ought to weigh quite heavily, versus saying "Well we have two [of our 300-man] battalions and the enemy has only one [of their 600-man version]".

I appreciate that one deploys force in certain units (e.g., brigades or battalions; it seems that regiments are more ceremonial), but there presumably has to be some extent to which the numbers of people firing guns within those units makes a difference. A company with 6 to 8 soldiers seems unlikely to impress anybody even if someone is carrying their Special Company Banner.

I guess it's all to do with doctrine and shorthand. You divide up your forces into neat groups of a certain size. That way, technically (if at full strength), you know what you're talking about when directing/being directed. It's all neat and simple. Likewise, if you know how your enemy organises themselves you know what you're up against. Different groupings act in different ways and have differing command structures, strengths and weaknesses - as such 2x300-man battalions could be more or less effective against a 1x600-man battalion depending on the make-up of those groupings, the chain of command etc.

However, what ends up being fielded may be quite different - first due to your/their ability to recruit and supply troops and later due to combat losses and replacement.

However however... I'm pretty sure that having companies at 95% of their initial level is not a good thing...

Ukraine has moved earlier to mobilise more people and with a higher level of training and self-reliance (and equipment). Whereas Russia is now throwing it's newly mobilised troops into the field with little training, little equipment and it naturally has a very rigid command structure.

[dyqik]

Dividing each level of grouping into 2-4 units is also helpful for planning and maneuvering - it lets a particular level of commander rotate which part of the unit is the front line, or to easily divide their unit in order to flank each side while holding the center, or between advancing and covering.

Dividing into many more than 2-4 is hard to keep organized and straight in your head while under stress, while not dividing means you have to adapt and subdivide on the fly, causing confusion.