Blyatskrieg

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jimbob
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:26 pm

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1558852348646248449
Looks like Wagner sustained casualties in Popasna. Notably, photos were published a few days ago showing Yevgeny Prigozhin at a building in the city, which some dubbed as Wagner’s headquarters.

https://t.me/rsotmdivision/446

The telegram channel has (belatedly) been deleted.

HIMARS strike on Wagner base after Russian propaganda telegram posted photos including street signs and addresses.

Hope some senior Wagner group members were killed.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:09 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:26 pm
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1558852348646248449
Looks like Wagner sustained casualties in Popasna. Notably, photos were published a few days ago showing Yevgeny Prigozhin at a building in the city, which some dubbed as Wagner’s headquarters.

https://t.me/rsotmdivision/446

The telegram channel has (belatedly) been deleted.

HIMARS strike on Wagner base after Russian propaganda telegram posted photos including street signs and addresses.

Hope some senior Wagner group members were killed.
Here's hoping Prigozhin or Utkin got schwacked

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:14 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:09 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:26 pm
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1558852348646248449
Looks like Wagner sustained casualties in Popasna. Notably, photos were published a few days ago showing Yevgeny Prigozhin at a building in the city, which some dubbed as Wagner’s headquarters.

https://t.me/rsotmdivision/446

The telegram channel has (belatedly) been deleted.

HIMARS strike on Wagner base after Russian propaganda telegram posted photos including street signs and addresses.

Hope some senior Wagner group members were killed.
Here's hoping Prigozhin or Utkin got schwacked
Not the only person hoping that

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status ... 71dUmbKkLw
If Prigozhin is dead I'll buy a cake with a picture of his face on it and post it on Twitter, then eat it.
With "hahahahaha" in icing
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:31 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:14 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:09 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:26 pm
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1558852348646248449




The telegram channel has (belatedly) been deleted.

HIMARS strike on Wagner base after Russian propaganda telegram posted photos including street signs and addresses.

Hope some senior Wagner group members were killed.
Here's hoping Prigozhin or Utkin got schwacked
Not the only person hoping that

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status ... 71dUmbKkLw
If Prigozhin is dead I'll buy a cake with a picture of his face on it and post it on Twitter, then eat it.
With "hahahahaha" in icing
Sadly, it's very unlikely that Prigozhin would have remained in a frontline position for long enough to get what he so richly deserves.

For those wondering, by the way, Wagner group is pure f.cking evil. Think Blackwater, but much, much worse. They are run day to day by the kind of man who tattoos SS insignia on his own chest and neck. They are responsible for numerous war crimes in Syria, including torturing to death a man who deserted from Assad's army. They filmed that themselves. They used the film as a recruiting tool, to recruit like minded c.nts. They recently committed a massacre in Moura, as part of their efforts to effectively turn Mali into a Russian colony, while in Sudan, they are systematically looting gold. Though often regarded as mercenaries - and in many ways they are, including recruitment of non-Russian neo-nazis to the ranks - they are not independent. They are the force Putin uses when he wants to pretend he isn't involved. Prigozhin is one of his key allies, and as well as running a neo-nazi private army, he also has something of a stranglehold on government food contracts.

They are also notable for the one time they fought Americans, at Khasham. Outnumbering the Americans something like ten to one, and equipped with armoured vehicles, they were utterly beaten due to American air power :twisted:

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:32 am

DefMon3's map of the frontline, 10th of July and 14th of August. You can see why I've referenced WWI speeds of advance. In fact, like that war, this is also primarily an artillery battle at the moment.

Image

In other news, looks like the Slovakian MiGs are going, a dozen of them. It will take a little while. As I've said before, now is the time to upgrade them as much as possible in terms of what weapons they can carry, especially air to ground weapons. Integrating long range AAMs would be exceptionally difficult, and R73s are quite capable at short range - the main reason to consider adding missiles like Sidewinder would be to spare R73 stocks if they are getting low.

I've mentioned the Brimstone Truck before. To build that, they must have created a standalone computer capable of targetting Brimstones. There is no reason that couldn't be done for an aircraft too - no reason the computer that targets the Brimstones has to be interacting with anything else. If it creates too much workload for the pilot to transfer information, then it should be considered for Ukraine's (2-seat) Su-24s. Adding them - or even more easily, Hellfires - to helicopters is also very worth considering.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:03 pm

If it turns out Prigozhin has indeed been killed, maybe the Russians can declare the war has destroyed at least one straightforward Nazi, and then f.ck off home.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 16, 2022 1:56 am


In recent weeks Russia, anticipating a southern offensive, has withdrawn forces from Izyum on the eastern front and reinforced Kherson and its environs. Refugees who recently left the city say they have seen scores of new Russian army vehicles and troops, especially near Nova Kakhovka. Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting, a firm which tracks the war, thinks there were 13 Russian battalion tactical groups (btgs) in the province in late July (a btg usually has several hundred troops, though most are depleted these days). Now there may be 25 to 30. “We now believe that this window of opportunity has passed”, says Mr Muzyka. “Ukrainians do not possess enough manpower to match Russian numbers.”

Though Ukraine does have a large pool of troops, most of them are conscripts with days of training. The most demanding fighting has been done by just five brigades of Ukraine’s most experienced and skilled soldiers, notes Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank. These units are exhausted and have taken heavy casualties. Training new brigades and equipping them for an offensive will take time.

Attacking usually requires more ammunition than defending. Attacking forces tend to take more casualties. “Since 1992, in our field exercises, we did not study offensive actions”, lamented Sergiy Grabskyi, a reserve colonel in Ukraine’s army, speaking on the “Geopolitics Decanted” podcast on August 3rd. “After eight years of war, Ukrainian forces are brilliant in defensive actions, but they have very limited or almost zero experience of conducting large-scale offensive actions.” Ukrainian counter-attacks around Kharkiv in May, though successful, were small and resulted in many casualties.

Russia’s army has had time to prepare. For months they have been digging trenches in Kherson, and trucking in fortifications. They may already have artillery trained on the roads that Ukraine would use to advance. “If the Ukrainian assault looks like Russia’s attack on Severodonetsk, it’s probably a dead end,” says Chris Dougherty, a former Pentagon planner, referring to a city that Russia captured in June using crude tactics and intense bombardment from artillery. “It will cost Ukraine dearly in scarce manpower and materiel, and would likely be the last major Ukrainian operation of 2022.”

Mr Dougherty says that Ukraine should take an indirect approach: isolating Kherson city and using irregular forces and artillery to choke off Russian supply lines would “wither Russia’s defence”. A drumbeat of partisan attacks, as well as recent strikes on Russian arms depots and command posts, suggests that this may be Ukraine’s true strategy. Some Ukrainian officials say they are content to wait, while steadily wearing down Russian forces with such attacks. “We want to avoid street warfare, because we don’t want to destroy the city,” says Major Roman Kovalyov, based in the north-eastern reaches of Kherson province. “We want to surround them and force them to withdraw. We want to wring them out.”

But encouraging the idea that a ground offensive is imminent has some advantages. It raises spirits among civilians in occupied Kherson. It keeps Russian forces—already battered by artillery—on edge. And it forces Russia to divert forces from the eastern Donbas region, which weakens its ongoing attacks towards the city of Slovyansk. Swaggering talk of a counter-offensive could even be a feint, drawing Russians towards Kherson and opening up gaps in the Russian line elsewhere that might be exploited.

The problem for Ukraine is that its political and military strategies are in tension. Volodymyr Zelensky, the country’s president, is eager to show his Western backers that the arms and ammunition they have poured into Ukraine are making a difference, and that the economic travails of the war, such as Europe’s energy crunch, are not in vain. Russia’s army is also replacing lost men over time. That, and the muddier ground in autumn, could make an offensive more difficult in a few months. “Right now, we have a unique chance and window of opportunity,” said Colonel Grabskyi, noting that a thrust from Zaporizhia towards the Sea of Azov could sever Russia’s so-called land bridge to Crimea.

The risk is that hyping counter-offensives which fail to materialise will eventually harm morale. But if attacks take place and fizzle, the disillusionment would be even worse. An offensive driven by political considerations, in defiance of military realities, would be “a really bad idea” says a seasoned military analyst, “but we may not be able to control what they do and where”. The analyst points to Severodonetsk, where Mr Zelensky, some sources say, overruled military advice and insisted that his armed forces defend the city much longer than was prudent. “They barely got out of it alive”, he says. If Ukraine is set on a counter-offensive, he says, it should be methodical and phased: squeezing Russia out of Kherson city, but stopping at the Dnieper river and advancing east only when military circumstances improve.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/0 ... steep-odds

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 16, 2022 2:15 am

Why Ukraine struggles to combat Russia’s artillery superiority
https://kyivindependent.com/national/wh ... uperiority

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:41 am

Massive secondary explosion, reportedly an ammunition depot in occupied Azovsk, Crimea, 200km from front line.

Ukraine's campaign of striking deeper into Russian-occupied territory continues. As yet, we do not know the means, but it could well be different means for different strikes anyway.

The arrival of AGM-88 HARM may have made a real difference. Arestovych mentioned just four aircraft were equipped for them, yet the impact is clear. Ukrainian Su-24s are operating over or close to Russian positions now, using laser-guided missiles that require line of sight. They can do that due to the destruction and suppression of Russian radars. It isn't just that AGM-88 HARM destroys radars, it's that it makes switching them on dangerous, and this can result in radars being off when they would otherwise be giving warning to the Russians. That in turn gives more options for use of things like improvised cruise missiles based on obsolete recon drones like the Tu-143, and more opportunities for hitting with weapons like the Tochka-U.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:53 am

Lack of effective air defences could also mean a return of the
Bayraktars to the battlefields.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:43 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:41 am
Massive secondary explosion, reportedly an ammunition depot in occupied Azovsk, Crimea, 200km from front line.

Ukraine's campaign of striking deeper into Russian-occupied territory continues. As yet, we do not know the means, but it could well be different means for different strikes anyway.

The arrival of AGM-88 HARM may have made a real difference. Arestovych mentioned just four aircraft were equipped for them, yet the impact is clear. Ukrainian Su-24s are operating over or close to Russian positions now, using laser-guided missiles that require line of sight. They can do that due to the destruction and suppression of Russian radars. It isn't just that AGM-88 HARM destroys radars, it's that it makes switching them on dangerous, and this can result in radars being off when they would otherwise be giving warning to the Russians. That in turn gives more options for use of things like improvised cruise missiles based on obsolete recon drones like the Tu-143, and more opportunities for hitting with weapons like the Tochka-U.
The airfield wasn't the only one or the first.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:30 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:41 am
Massive secondary explosion, reportedly an ammunition depot in occupied Azovsk, Crimea, 200km from front line.

Ukraine's campaign of striking deeper into Russian-occupied territory continues. As yet, we do not know the means, but it could well be different means for different strikes anyway.

The arrival of AGM-88 HARM may have made a real difference. Arestovych mentioned just four aircraft were equipped for them, yet the impact is clear. Ukrainian Su-24s are operating over or close to Russian positions now, using laser-guided missiles that require line of sight. They can do that due to the destruction and suppression of Russian radars. It isn't just that AGM-88 HARM destroys radars, it's that it makes switching them on dangerous, and this can result in radars being off when they would otherwise be giving warning to the Russians. That in turn gives more options for use of things like improvised cruise missiles based on obsolete recon drones like the Tu-143, and more opportunities for hitting with weapons like the Tochka-U.
That also reportedly damaged the railway lines and electricity substation

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1 ... JBm9Ez4aRg
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:32 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:53 am
Lack of effective air defences could also mean a return of the
Bayraktars to the battlefields.
It might. Probably only in limited areas, but they might be able to operate west of the Dnipro. Bayraktars have good cameras, so they are still useful for observation even well back from the frontline, but a return to strike roles would be useful for the Ukrainians, as their MAM-L bombs are very accurate. Speaking of Turkey and guided bombs, I note Ukraine are getting a few dozen Turkish/Azeri guided bombs which I think are based on the FAB-250. These are another weapon that will benefit from effective SEAD/DEAD.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:33 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:30 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:41 am
Massive secondary explosion, reportedly an ammunition depot in occupied Azovsk, Crimea, 200km from front line.

Ukraine's campaign of striking deeper into Russian-occupied territory continues. As yet, we do not know the means, but it could well be different means for different strikes anyway.

The arrival of AGM-88 HARM may have made a real difference. Arestovych mentioned just four aircraft were equipped for them, yet the impact is clear. Ukrainian Su-24s are operating over or close to Russian positions now, using laser-guided missiles that require line of sight. They can do that due to the destruction and suppression of Russian radars. It isn't just that AGM-88 HARM destroys radars, it's that it makes switching them on dangerous, and this can result in radars being off when they would otherwise be giving warning to the Russians. That in turn gives more options for use of things like improvised cruise missiles based on obsolete recon drones like the Tu-143, and more opportunities for hitting with weapons like the Tochka-U.
That also reportedly damaged the railway lines and electricity substation

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1 ... JBm9Ez4aRg

Can see why it was a target

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/15 ... JBm9Ez4aRg
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:39 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:30 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:41 am
Massive secondary explosion, reportedly an ammunition depot in occupied Azovsk, Crimea, 200km from front line.

Ukraine's campaign of striking deeper into Russian-occupied territory continues. As yet, we do not know the means, but it could well be different means for different strikes anyway.

The arrival of AGM-88 HARM may have made a real difference. Arestovych mentioned just four aircraft were equipped for them, yet the impact is clear. Ukrainian Su-24s are operating over or close to Russian positions now, using laser-guided missiles that require line of sight. They can do that due to the destruction and suppression of Russian radars. It isn't just that AGM-88 HARM destroys radars, it's that it makes switching them on dangerous, and this can result in radars being off when they would otherwise be giving warning to the Russians. That in turn gives more options for use of things like improvised cruise missiles based on obsolete recon drones like the Tu-143, and more opportunities for hitting with weapons like the Tochka-U.
That also reportedly damaged the railway lines and electricity substation

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1 ... JBm9Ez4aRg
I saw a claim the substation was actually a distance away and that was an additional, but probably related, attack, but now I can't find it again.

Dzankoy happens to be the last point heading north before the two railway lines diverge, so that's blocked all railway travel out of Crimea into the rest of Ukraine. I'm not sure they've got a rail link in the east, certainly not a secure one, so that really hurts their logistics. There's also been partisan/SOF attacks in places like Melitopol, where a bridge was destroyed, designed to further damage Russian logistics.

I can understand why they stored all the ammo right near the junction - it simplified onward distribution - but it was still extremely arrogant to the point of utter f.cking stupidity.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Tue Aug 16, 2022 10:07 am

Apparently it was just a fire, as usual.

Edit to add TASS report, not that it's worth reading.
SIMFEROPOL, August 16. /TASS/. A blaze that was triggered by an ammunition depot blast in the Dzhankoi district of Crimea continues, peninsula head Sergey Aksenov said on his Telegram channel on Tuesday.

"I am in the village of Azovsky, Dzhankoi district, where this morning, according to the Defense Ministry, a fire broke out on the territory of the temporary storage site of one of the military units’ ammunition. At the moment the detonation continues," Aksenov wrote.

He added that a five-kilometer zone has been cordoned off around the site of the incident and people are being evacuated. "We are providing assistance on the spot. Ambulances, law enforcement agencies are mobilized in sufficient numbers," the Crimean head noted.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, on August 16, around 06:15 Moscow time near the village of Mayskoye (Dzhankoi district of Crimea), a fire broke out on the territory of the banked site for temporary storage of ammunition of one of the military units. The fire triggered the detonation of the ammunition.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:11 am

TimW wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 10:07 am
Apparently it was just a fire, as usual.

Edit to add TASS report, not that it's worth reading.
SIMFEROPOL, August 16. /TASS/. A blaze that was triggered by an ammunition depot blast in the Dzhankoi district of Crimea continues, peninsula head Sergey Aksenov said on his Telegram channel on Tuesday.

"I am in the village of Azovsky, Dzhankoi district, where this morning, according to the Defense Ministry, a fire broke out on the territory of the temporary storage site of one of the military units’ ammunition. At the moment the detonation continues," Aksenov wrote.

He added that a five-kilometer zone has been cordoned off around the site of the incident and people are being evacuated. "We are providing assistance on the spot. Ambulances, law enforcement agencies are mobilized in sufficient numbers," the Crimean head noted.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, on August 16, around 06:15 Moscow time near the village of Mayskoye (Dzhankoi district of Crimea), a fire broke out on the territory of the banked site for temporary storage of ammunition of one of the military units. The fire triggered the detonation of the ammunition.
The claim that a fire broke out in the ammunition store is clearly true. Of course, fires often break out due to warheads detonating.

Not sure five kilometres is enough exclusion zone, given the way these rockets are cooking off. They're probably 122mm Grad rockets, as they were observed stored there before the blast. Though they are unlikely to achieve full range just cooking off like that, they can potentially go 20km or more.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:31 pm

This is not good practice for safe ammunition storage.

This is the site of the blast, some time before it all went up in flames.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 16, 2022 1:14 pm

Looks like another Crimean airfield has bee hit
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 16, 2022 2:17 pm

Ukrainian officials are attributing this to an elite unit working behind Russian lines. Given they are talking about it, I'd say it's about as likely as RAF night fighters improving their vision by eating carrots.

But loitering munitions/manually controlled cruise missiles are a possibility, especially with what looks like three strikes (ammo dump, substation, airbase) in quick succession. The hypothesis here is that they sent in a small group of such munitions to overwhelm air defence, and once they'd got their primary target, subsequent munitions diverted to secondary targets.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:22 pm

Lots more things going bang in Russia and Crimea today.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:53 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:22 pm
Lots more things going bang in Russia and Crimea today.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... bC38BkpZhw
Jimmy
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Reported events tonight:

• Explosions at munitions depot, Timonovo, Belgorod
• Fire/explosions at Stary Oskol Airfield, Belgorod
• Explosions in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson
• Explosions/UAV shot down near Belbek airport, Crimea
• Air defence activity near Kerch strait, Crimea
9:10 PM · Aug 18, 2022·Twitter Web App
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:35 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:41 am
Massive secondary explosion, reportedly an ammunition depot in occupied Azovsk, Crimea, 200km from front line.

Ukraine's campaign of striking deeper into Russian-occupied territory continues. As yet, we do not know the means, but it could well be different means for different strikes anyway.

The arrival of AGM-88 HARM may have made a real difference. Arestovych mentioned just four aircraft were equipped for them, yet the impact is clear. Ukrainian Su-24s are operating over or close to Russian positions now, using laser-guided missiles that require line of sight. They can do that due to the destruction and suppression of Russian radars. It isn't just that AGM-88 HARM destroys radars, it's that it makes switching them on dangerous, and this can result in radars being off when they would otherwise be giving warning to the Russians. That in turn gives more options for use of things like improvised cruise missiles based on obsolete recon drones like the Tu-143, and more opportunities for hitting with weapons like the Tochka-U.
HARM has been integrated into the Ukrainian MiG 29s

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... n-missiles
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Aug 20, 2022 10:31 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:35 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:41 am
Massive secondary explosion, reportedly an ammunition depot in occupied Azovsk, Crimea, 200km from front line.

Ukraine's campaign of striking deeper into Russian-occupied territory continues. As yet, we do not know the means, but it could well be different means for different strikes anyway.

The arrival of AGM-88 HARM may have made a real difference. Arestovych mentioned just four aircraft were equipped for them, yet the impact is clear. Ukrainian Su-24s are operating over or close to Russian positions now, using laser-guided missiles that require line of sight. They can do that due to the destruction and suppression of Russian radars. It isn't just that AGM-88 HARM destroys radars, it's that it makes switching them on dangerous, and this can result in radars being off when they would otherwise be giving warning to the Russians. That in turn gives more options for use of things like improvised cruise missiles based on obsolete recon drones like the Tu-143, and more opportunities for hitting with weapons like the Tochka-U.
HARM has been integrated into the Ukrainian MiG 29s

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... n-missiles
It makes sense - if it's technically feasible, and clearly it is, the MiG-29 is the best platform to integrate equipment on. While the Su-24 gives more payload and a weapons officer to operate it, there's only about a dozen or so of them in Ukrainian service, and no chance of more coming from NATO countries, unlike the MiG-29. In addition, the Su-24 has reasonably decent ground attack capabilities, including guided AGMs. The MiG-29 does not, so adding AGM-88 HARM adds capability without diverting the Su-24s away from their existing role.

The thing about the MiG-29 is that it's actually quite a good airframe, the Soviet Union's equivalent of planes like the F-16. The problem is that it never got the upgrades needed to turn it into a modern, multi-role strike fighter. It's got decent short range air to air missiles, and that's it. It's longer range AAMs are outmatched by modern Russian ones, and that's an area where it would be exceptionally hard to upgrade. For ground attack, it has rockets and unguided bombs.

However, the MiG-29 is a known quantity in the west. America has access to examples, and they were in service in a number of former-Warsaw Pact nations now in NATO. Equipped with modern ordnance, it would be competitive in the role Ukraine needs it for - as a strike plane that can fight other jets if needed, and that can threaten Russian helicopters and Su-25s. As well as AGM-88 HARM, Brimstone ought to be viable, as would anything laser guided, if used in support of ground troops equipped with designators (stuff like Dual Mode Brimstone, Paveway, some JDAM variants, APKWS rockets, etc), and GPS guided weapons like JDAMs and Small Diameter Bombs would certainly be viable for attacking fixed targets, as they can be pre-programmed before takeoff.

These announcements of military aid can also be a good idea for knowing what works. More AGM-88 HARMs suggests that that is a weapon that is proving useful.

America's sending some of their M119s - basically a slightly modified L119 light gun. This fits with reports that the L119s have been well received. They haven't the range of guns like the M777, but they are very small and light, can be towed by a pickup truck, and have a high rate of fire, such that they aren't so far behind the 155mm pieces when it comes to weight of shell delivered per minute.

Phoenix Ghost drones - whatever the hell they are (remember, the EFP drone theory is just a theory) are being replenished. Not the case with Switchblade 300s, which turned out not to have enough punch for the job, and to not be suitable for large scale conventional warfare.

TOW missiles are a new development, which is a surprise, as they could have been sent much earlier, however, it could well be that a weapon requiring considerable operator skill wasn't in demand, as Ukraine already had a similar - arguably superior - system of their own, the Stugna-P. The TOW won't be a game changer, but it will continue to make life difficult for Russian armour, and could fill in for Stugna-Ps if they are starting to run out. It could be a bit more of a game changer if it is possible to get Suheil Mahmoud over from Syria. A Tank-hunting ace with well over a hundred kills with the system, he earned the nickname "Abu Tow", and shows what is possible with weapons like the TOW.

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jimbob
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Aug 20, 2022 12:01 pm

Thread showing video of the commercial drone attack ( about $5k on Alibaba) that managed to get through Russian air defences in daylight and hit the HQ of the Black Sea fleet.

looking like the one that hit the refinery a couple of months ago.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... ORhj8DsmiA


After a previous drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet, you'd have thought they'd improve their air defence.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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