Possibly via truck bomb or bombs judging by the damage to the road, or even by boat.
ETA If so it may well have been a suicide mission to hit the train as well.
EETA I mean as a target of opportunity. Difficult to plan that in advance.
Possibly via truck bomb or bombs judging by the damage to the road, or even by boat.
There appears to be some cctv footage. No sign of anyone stopping a truck and getting out.lpm wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:04 amMy guess is the train was a very lucky coincidence.
A truck stops on the bridge at a perfect spot, the driver jumps in a car which speeds off... Do they have so much nerve they wait to trigger it when they know a fuel train is alongside? Or have they coordinated a second bomb on the train?
The whole thing is astonishing, targeting the train as well seems even more extraordinarily audacious.
Two separate spans of the road are down. A single truck bomb doesn't seem to fit. Demolition charges by boat more likely?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:53 amClose up video of the damage: https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... PpXzqFkASQ
Severe fire damage to the rail bridge.
Blows from underneath, I'd say.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:08 amThere appears to be some cctv footage. No sign of anyone stopping a truck and getting out.lpm wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:04 amMy guess is the train was a very lucky coincidence.
A truck stops on the bridge at a perfect spot, the driver jumps in a car which speeds off... Do they have so much nerve they wait to trigger it when they know a fuel train is alongside? Or have they coordinated a second bomb on the train?
The whole thing is astonishing, targeting the train as well seems even more extraordinarily audacious.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw
ETA https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... BefvwXJoLA
Via missile? How close could they get if they were somewhere near Mariupol?
First link there’s a rush of water under the bridge just before the explosion. Wake of a boat?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:08 amThere appears to be some cctv footage. No sign of anyone stopping a truck and getting out.lpm wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:04 amMy guess is the train was a very lucky coincidence.
A truck stops on the bridge at a perfect spot, the driver jumps in a car which speeds off... Do they have so much nerve they wait to trigger it when they know a fuel train is alongside? Or have they coordinated a second bomb on the train?
The whole thing is astonishing, targeting the train as well seems even more extraordinarily audacious.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw
ETA https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... BefvwXJoLA
Very difficult to plant a truck load of explosives without anyone noticing.lpm wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:39 amIt was clearly an attack on the road span. With the explosion at a carefully chosen structural point. Yet a flammable train was alongside at exactly the moment of the explosion.
1. Incredible coincidence
2. Perfect timing
1 is possible, coincidences happen. But more likely 2. How can you achieve perfect timing?
A. Truck bomb driven by stranger? No.
B. Truck bomb driven by suicide bomber? Almost certainly not, too hard to coordinate timings.
C. Pre-prepared demolition charges or boat bomb underneath, with trigger guy waiting patiently till a known train reaches perfect point?
It has to be 2C? An attack by water?
So logistical nightmares for RU forces in the whole Kherson Oblast, not just the forces to the west of the Dnipro. Excellent news.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 amIt appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.
There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.
However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.
That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.
So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.
It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.
The Russians are saying it's between Tuzla and Tanan.
And Zaporizhzhia, assuming they are unable to repair the rail bridge.bjn wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:24 amSo logistical nightmares for RU forces in the whole Kherson Oblast, not just the forces to the west of the Dnipro. Excellent news.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 amIt appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.
There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.
However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.
That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.
So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.
It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.
And Russia has to expend resources trying to counter such subsequent attacks.bjn wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:24 amSo logistical nightmares for RU forces in the whole Kherson Oblast, not just the forces to the west of the Dnipro. Excellent news.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 amIt appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.
There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.
However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.
That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.
So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.
It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.
It'll buff outEACLucifer wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:30 amAnd Zaporizhzhia, assuming they are unable to repair the rail bridge.bjn wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:24 amSo logistical nightmares for RU forces in the whole Kherson Oblast, not just the forces to the west of the Dnipro. Excellent news.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 amIt appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.
There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.
However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.
That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.
So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.
It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.
Quite a thing to wake up to.