Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

The attack on Vuhledar didn't go too well. Not sure what the voiceover is saying, but footage only contains destroyed/abandoned vehicles, no combat footage. Thirty one armoured vehicles lost just in this footage, and this is not the only footage to come out from Vuhledar lately.

One sobering point to consider, though - a lot of this is due to mines. Mines will knock out an Abrams or a Challeger or a Leopard as well as they knock out a T-72 or T-80. It's not that minefields are impenetrable, but it does take significant planning.

[TopBadger]

The attack on Vuhledar didn't go too well. Not sure what the voiceover is saying, but footage only contains destroyed/abandoned vehicles, no combat footage. Thirty one armoured vehicles lost just in this footage, and this is not the only footage to come out from Vuhledar lately.

One sobering point to consider, though - a lot of this is due to mines. Mines will knock out an Abrams or a Challeger or a Leopard as well as they knock out a T-72 or T-80. It's not that minefields are impenetrable, but it does take significant planning.

Are no mine clearance vehicles being sent with the tanks? Combat Engineering (recovery, bridge laying, mine clearing, etc) is a vital part of armored maneuver warfare... I thought I'd read they were part of the package?

No chance of Ukraine getting classified F-35's.

[EACLucifer]

The attack on Vuhledar didn't go too well. Not sure what the voiceover is saying, but footage only contains destroyed/abandoned vehicles, no combat footage. Thirty one armoured vehicles lost just in this footage, and this is not the only footage to come out from Vuhledar lately.

One sobering point to consider, though - a lot of this is due to mines. Mines will knock out an Abrams or a Challeger or a Leopard as well as they knock out a T-72 or T-80. It's not that minefields are impenetrable, but it does take significant planning.

Are no mine clearance vehicles being sent with the tanks? Combat Engineering (recovery, bridge laying, mine clearing, etc) is a vital part of armored maneuver warfare... I thought I'd read they were part of the package?

Some western combat engineering vehicles are going, there's been contracts placed for mine plows for new vehicles, too. Also Ukraine has some fairly impressive mine rollers fitted on modified tanks.

As for this attack, I've seen evidence of mine rollers on some tanks, but a mine roller on a tank isn't really the same as a proper mine clearing vehicle, and often leaves the tank vulnerable still to tilt-rod type mines. What I've conspicuously not seen around Vuhledar is either dedicated mine clearing vehicles or line charges. The other challenge of course is knowing where the mines are - around dawn and dusk thermal cameras can sometimes reveal them, but they add complexity to operations. They aren't impenetrable, but they do force units to follow cleared paths, leaving them vulnerable to other threats. The key when attacking minefields is to get through them fast and regain freedom to manoeuvre, and clearly the Russians failed at this south of Vuhledar.

The other notable thing, which does not bode well for Russia, is the units that took the mauling - notably including the 155th Naval Infantry. These were some of Russia's better units, but by now most of their original personnel are gone, and have been replaced by mobiks, leading to such remarkable displays of incompetence as we have been recently seeing.

[EACLucifer]

Vuhledar. Think these were in the footage I previously posted, but not got time to check. This is just a small part of Russian losses south of Vuhledar in the last week or so.

[TopBadger]

Vuhledar. Think these were in the footage I previously posted, but not got time to check. This is just a small part of Russian losses south of Vuhledar in the last week or so.

Those three tanks are interesting... that their barrels are all pointed the same way suggests they were trying to use each other as cover? I though the proper tactic there was to spread out. Might just be a coincidence of course.

[EACLucifer]

Vuhledar. Think these were in the footage I previously posted, but not got time to check. This is just a small part of Russian losses south of Vuhledar in the last week or so.

Those three tanks are interesting... that their barrels are all pointed the same way suggests they were trying to use each other as cover? I though the proper tactic there was to spread out. Might just be a coincidence of course.

I'd be interested in knowing if that's the direction Ukrainian positions were in. Dispersal is generally better, as it reduces risks of losing multiple vehicles to one shell, to getting vehicles penned in when others are damaged, or even - as seen in some other footage - tanks getting their barrels tangled with each other. I'm guessing they must have been aiming at something, but f.ck knows really. When just moving around, tanks should have their turrets pointed in different directions so the unit collectively covers all directions, as in the image below.

[dyqik]

Plus it stops you running the gun into the back of the turret in front of you if the front tank stops suddenly.

[TopBadger]

Plus it stops you running the gun into the back of the turret in front of you if the front tank stops suddenly.

If you're that close together you can't stop in time then I'd say you're making a very attractive target.

Infantry move with 10m gaps between them... Vehicle gaps should be much much more than this...

[EACLucifer]

Thread regarding Russian assaults on Avdiivka

Major trigger warning here - in parts of that thread there is combat/aftermath footage. If you cannot handle that, either do not follow the link, or do not allow the videos to play.

Renewed Russian offensives on Avdiivka have taken place roughly at the same time as their so far fruitless attempts to assault Vuhledar, and it's going about as well for them. They have suffered heavy losses and, just as has happened with repeated previous attempts to assault Avdiivka, so far not resulted in any meaningful gains. The defence of Avdiivka and Vuhledar (and Vodyane, for that matter) since about the start of this month has not received as much press attention as some previous engagements, but it is extremely significant. No, there aren't any big changes to lines on the map - that's the bit that is significant, given the number and supposed quality of the forces the Russians have sent to assault these positions. Russian losses are very severe, and could well be as bad as they were at Bilohorivka back in spring. There's a lot of talk right now about a major Russian offensive in the coming days, and forces gathering in the Mariupol area - these so far fruitless and expensive assaults could well be the beginning of that. So far, Ukraine's defence is holding, Russian attrition is severe, and Russian sources are talking about very low morale and pointing blame at different parts of the Russian military machine.

[TopBadger]

News reporting that Russia is readying lots more tanks and artillery... one wonders what state that's going to be in, if they have enough competent troops to operate them, and the logistics to supply them.

I'm left with the feeling that Russia won't have much left in the cupboard to conduct big pushes if their next one fails and turns to scrap metal.

[dyqik]

Plus it stops you running the gun into the back of the turret in front of you if the front tank stops suddenly.

If you're that close together you can't stop in time then I'd say you're making a very attractive target.

Infantry move with 10m gaps between them... Vehicle gaps should be much much more than this...

Well, everything breaks, don't it Colonel?

[Woodchopper]

Ukrainian officials said they require coordinates provided or confirmed by the United States and its allies for the vast majority of strikes using its advanced U.S.-provided rocket systems, a previously undisclosed practice that reveals a deeper and more operationally active role for the Pentagon in the war.

The disclosure, confirmed by three senior Ukrainian officials and a senior U.S. official, comes after months of Kyiv’s forces pounding Russian targets — including headquarters, ammunition depots and barracks — on Ukrainian soil with the U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, and other similar precision-guided weapons such as the M270 multiple-launch rocket system.

One senior Ukrainian official said Ukrainian forces almost never launch the advanced weapons without specific coordinates provided by U.S. military personnel from a base elsewhere in Europe. Ukrainian officials say this process should give Washington confidence about providing Kyiv with longer-range weapons.

A senior U.S. official — who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue — acknowledged the key American role in the campaign and said the targeting assistance served to ensure accuracy and conserve limited stores of ammunition for maximum effectiveness. The official said Ukraine does not seek approval from the United States on what to strike and routinely targets Russian forces on their own with other weapons. The United States provides coordinates and precise targeting information solely in an advisory role, the official said.

[…]

The senior Ukrainian official described the targeting process, generally: Ukrainian military personnel identify targets they want to hit, and in which location, and that information is then sent up to senior commanders, who then relay the request to U.S. partners for more accurate coordinates. The Americans do not always provide the requested coordinates, the official said, in which case the Ukrainian troops do not fire.

Ukraine could carry out strikes without U.S. help, but because Kyiv doesn’t want to waste valuable ammunition and miss, it usually chooses not to strike without U.S. confirmation, the official said, adding that there are no complaints about the process.

[…]

The senior Ukrainian official contended that the Ukrainian military would face the same limitations it does now with conventional HIMARS rounds if it received ATACMS, with Ukraine still dependent on U.S. targeting coordinates.
“You’re controlling every shot anyway, so when you say, ‘We’re afraid that you’re going to use it for some other purposes,’ well, we can’t do it even if we want to,” the senior Ukrainian official said.

The senior U.S. official disputed the characterization. It is “not true,” the U.S. official said, that “Ukrainians run targets by us for approval.”

Ukrainian military officials have said that Russian forces have moved back their ammunition stocks out of HIMARS range, which has led to a steep decline in the daily bombardment of Ukrainian cities and soldiers but also reduced Kyiv’s ability to target Moscow’s arsenal. With ATACMS, the Ukrainians probably would target Russian military installations in Crimea, which Russia invaded and annexed illegally in 2014.

[…]

The head of the Ukrainian military’s missile forces and artillery training, Maj. Gen. Andriy Malinovsky, told The Washington Post in an interview in October that Ukraine’s Western allies had confirmed coordinates for targets ahead of the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

The partners had worked out a process, he said, with Ukraine receiving precise coordinates to ensure they wouldn’t miss their mark with multiple-launch rocket artillery systems as the rapid counteroffensive caught Russian forces unprepared. The targeting information also provided a workaround for when Russian signal-jamming prevented aerial drone reconnaissance on the battlefield, Malinovsky said.

[…]

“According to our maps and software, a point will have one set of coordinates,” Malinovsky said. “But when we give this target to partners for analysis, the coordinates are different. Why? Because the Americans and NATO countries have access to military satellites.

“We’re all basically always online,” he added. “They immediately get us the coordinates and we then fire the MLRS right away.”

A third Ukrainian official confirmed that targeting all goes through an American installation on NATO soil and described the process as “very fast.” The Post is withholding the name of the base at the request of U.S. officials who cited security concerns.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ry-russia/

[EACLucifer]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ry-russia/

This is being overhyped. The US is assisting Ukraine with target mensuration, which means US analysts double checking the data Ukrainian forces are providing, as they would do for their own forces. It's not the US providing the targets, its the US checking the targets to confirm accuracy, assess risk of collateral damage, and so on. This has also been going on since the first US PGMs were provided back in the summer.

[Woodchopper]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ry-russia/

This is being overhyped. The US is assisting Ukraine with target mensuration, which means US analysts double checking the data Ukrainian forces are providing, as they would do for their own forces. It's not the US providing the targets, its the US checking the targets to confirm accuracy, assess risk of collateral damage, and so on. This has also been going on since the first US PGMs were provided back in the summer.

Yes, US assistance was reported a while ago. The wsj article may add a bit more information. One notable aspect in the article was the Ukrainians not attacking if the US didn't follow-up an initial request.

[Woodchopper]

Reports of major Russian attacks from Luhansk. I agree that it looks like a general Russian offensive is under way. Whatever happens the casualties are likely to be horrendous.

[EACLucifer]

Reports of major Russian attacks from Luhansk. I agree that it looks like a general Russian offensive is under way. Whatever happens the casualties are likely to be horrendous.

Agreed on both counts. I think we can include the so-far disastrous attacks on Vuhledar and the latest round of attacks on Avdiivka in this too. We should avoid panicking if Ukrainian forces decide it is best to give a little ground in the face of this, even if the media doesn't avoid panic, and remember Gerasimov's love of information operations, and be careful what sources we trust and view all claims in light of what visually verified evidence there is available.

[Woodchopper]

Ukranian commanders tell us they are running out of ammunition and don’t have enough tank rounds and other heavy weapons to stop the Russian offensive. It’s not merely a question of will. Western arms producers are struggling to keep up with demand exposing a lack of capacity.

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status ... qOLVHDiBFg

[EACLucifer]

Ukranian commanders tell us they are running out of ammunition and don’t have enough tank rounds and other heavy weapons to stop the Russian offensive. It’s not merely a question of will. Western arms producers are struggling to keep up with demand exposing a lack of capacity.

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status ... qOLVHDiBFg

Given that both sides are already using cluster munitions and mines and much of the areas where fighting is heavy are already extremely contaminated by UXO, it's time the USA sends their remaining stockpiles of several million DPICM cluster shells, especially as for many roles they can do the job of several blast-frag shells.

[Woodchopper]

Western intelligence shows Russia is amassing aircraft close to the border with Ukraine, an indication that Moscow is preparing to throw its jets and helicopters into the war to support a stuttering land offensive.

The fear of a looming air war in Ukraine has prompted allies to prioritise rapid shipments of air defence assets and artillery ammunition to Kyiv, western officials said, to respond to the shift in approach by Moscow as the almost year-long war enters a new phase.

Intelligence shared among Nato allies shows Russia is amassing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft close to the border with Ukraine, according to two officials briefed on its contents.

[…]

While Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week rekindled a debate among allies about whether or not to send fighter jets, a US official said these were less important than ammunition in the near term as Ukraine looked to maintain an edge.

[…]

While no decisions were expected on Tuesday, the issue of supplying fighter jets was to be discussed, two people briefed on the preparations said. President Joe Biden has said the US will not send F-16s but American officials concede they are likely to provide Ukraine with more sophisticated air power as the war drags on — or at least give a green light to the transfer of F-16s from other powers.

https://www.ft.com/content/3fd6e91f-71e ... 20a2a78763

[EACLucifer]

Western intelligence shows Russia is amassing aircraft close to the border with Ukraine, an indication that Moscow is preparing to throw its jets and helicopters into the war to support a stuttering land offensive.

The fear of a looming air war in Ukraine has prompted allies to prioritise rapid shipments of air defence assets and artillery ammunition to Kyiv, western officials said, to respond to the shift in approach by Moscow as the almost year-long war enters a new phase.

Intelligence shared among Nato allies shows Russia is amassing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft close to the border with Ukraine, according to two officials briefed on its contents.

[…]

While Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week rekindled a debate among allies about whether or not to send fighter jets, a US official said these were less important than ammunition in the near term as Ukraine looked to maintain an edge.

[…]

While no decisions were expected on Tuesday, the issue of supplying fighter jets was to be discussed, two people briefed on the preparations said. President Joe Biden has said the US will not send F-16s but American officials concede they are likely to provide Ukraine with more sophisticated air power as the war drags on — or at least give a green light to the transfer of F-16s from other powers.

https://www.ft.com/content/3fd6e91f-71e ... 20a2a78763

US officials have stated they don't see a massing of fixed wing aircraft, so bear in mind this is disputed/unclear. Any significant attack with fixed wing aircraft would have to contend with Ukraine's increasingly strong air defences, which have, for the most part, kept Russian crewed aircraft on their side of the lines.

Regarding jets, of course they are less important in the short term than ammunition - that's because there is no way to provide them immediately, unlike ammunition, or the long range missiles America is still holding back. If Ukraine had been listened to last spring, though, they'd already be in service - this short termism is pathetic and self-defeating. It's always "well we have this crisis, we must focus on the short term" when the f.cking crisis is in large part a consequence of previous failures to consider long term needs.

The two main concerns about jets are Russia's layered air defences, which are quite capable and force Ukrainian planes to stay low and on their side of the lines. Only stealth aircraft - which America in its short-sightedness will surely veto/not provide - would be able to operate at altitude. That's not necessarily a problem, but it is a concern. The other issue is Russian R-37 air-to-air missiles. These have a very long range, somewhere around 150km, maybe more, and are fired from MiG-31s operating out of reach of Ukrainian air defences, often operating out of Belarus. Obviously providing weapons and consent to hit them on their airfields would help, but the other way to handle it is something Europeans can do, but the USA can't, and that's providing a missile with the range to hit right back at those MiG-31s, the only one available being the MBDA Meteor, which is used on a lot of European jets, though if Tranche 1 Typhoons are provided, Meteor will have to be integrated with them first. Meteor has a range of 200 (possibly more) kilometres, meaning an aircraft operating a standard R-37 will be in Meteor range before the Meteor-armed aircraft is in R-37 range.

Another option that needs to be considered for defending Ukrainian airspace would be to place an advanced long range SAM system in Romania to be operated by NATO personnel. Given definite violations of Moldovan airspace and alleged violations of Romanian airspace, it could be spun as defending Romania, but used to shoot down missiles and shaitanmopeds aimed at Odesa and aimed at western Ukraine via Moldovan airspace.

Of course the best way to prevent missile attacks from the Black Sea is to sink the Black Sea Fleet at its anchorages. We in the west are quite capable of providing systems to hit Sevastopol and Novorossiysk and should do so without further delay. Ukraine are themselves working on naval drones and longer range loitering munitions, and would likely target both anchorages with those, too.

[TopBadger]

There does seem to have been a shift in regards to ATACMS though... in that the messaging has moved from 'not supplying them due to avoiding escalation' to 'not supplying them because we don't have enough in stock'.

So, presumably, more stock of ATACMS or increasing availability of similar high range weapons (GL-SBD) could change the calculus is what the US is willing to release to Ukraine.

[EACLucifer]

There does seem to have been a shift in regards to ATACMS though... in that the messaging has moved from 'not supplying them due to avoiding escalation' to 'not supplying them because we don't have enough in stock'.

So, presumably, more stock of ATACMS or increasing availability of similar high range weapons (GL-SBD) could change the calculus is what the US is willing to release to Ukraine.

There won't be more stock of ATACMS, they aren't being made any more.

It's still a sh.t argument, as ATACMS's replacement, the precision strike missile - an improvement over ATACMS in every way - is due to enter service this year. Likewise, if they feel they can't spare ATACMS because of Taiwan (where they might be useful, but that's years away if it happens and Taiwan would get more use from Precision Strike Missiles anyway and if it somehow isn't years away than ATACMS will do f.ck all good sitting in American inventories) then they should send AGM-158 JASSMs instead.

I can understand restricting them to very high value targets, but the impact on the strategic situation of properly knocking out the Chongar and Kerch bridges would be immense, and require a salvo of ATACMS, but not a large amount of the inventory - just 1 or 2 % of stocks has the potential to change the war. Think how much 155mm ammunition could be saved by denying the Russians one of their most major supply routes.

Ukrainians are doing America the immense favour of fighting one of their biggest geopolitical rivals for the last century to a stalemate and quite likely defeat. America wants to pivot to a more Pacific-focussed defence posture, and Ukrainian soldiers are giving them the chance to do so soon by depleting Russia's ability to threaten the west. Ukrainians are the ones dying, but America and Europe are benefitting too. It's time they were armed properly. Western short-sightedness, risk-selfishness and timidity is measured in Ukrainian lives.

[EACLucifer]

Wave of reported explosions in the south. Only footage so far clouds of smoke from distance. Reportedly Chaplynka, Armyansk, Kalanchak and possibly Shadovsk. Rumours it's S300/400 launchers being hit. Suggests HARM involved, could be a bit of a SEAD/DEAD campaign going on in the south.

[Martin Y]

I had to Google those places; right down South clustered around the route to Crimea where it narrows. Tempting to run away with the idea they're suppressing Russian air defences there for some imminent air operation, but things almost never turn out to be that obvious.

[TopBadger]

Or could be seeking to demonstrate they can knock out air defenses ahead of the west sending Jets... if indeed that is what it is.