Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

Bryansk, apparently. Turbine-powered cruise missile judging by the sound. Could be Neptune joining the fray, could be one of the modified Cold War Tupolev recon drones converted to carry a warhead, could be something as yet unknown.

ETA: There's also claims it's misattributed footage of a Russian attack on Dnipro. I picked this up from a generally trustworthy source, but nobody is 100%, so keep an open mind for now. What is clear, though, is that there is a second wave of Ukrainian long range attacks tonight, whether or not this footage is related or not.

[EACLucifer]

Feodosia, occupied Crimea

The blue flashes would suggest a hit on electrical infrastructure. In the replies is a geolocation that places it at a substation in Feodosia. I'm not sure exactly how the power to the Crimea Railway is organised, but Feodosia is on a short branch from the mainline. Cutting power shuts down electric locomotives, so could limit movement of materiel on the railway line from the Kerch Bridge into Crimea.

[bjn]

Shelling in eastern Verbove identified by source as Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions. If true, that's significant Ukrainian progress. Lots of ifs, I'd add, but worth keeping an eye on.

The Ukrainians now have a deep salient pushing South in that part of the line. I’m trying to figure out why the Russians aren’t attempting to pinch it out in the North. By the looks of it their main lines of communications to that part of the front would be easily in range of UKR artillery as they run east/west, parallel with the front. The Ukrainians are basically attacking down the main supply line for that part of the front.

[EACLucifer]

Shelling in eastern Verbove identified by source as Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions. If true, that's significant Ukrainian progress. Lots of ifs, I'd add, but worth keeping an eye on.

The Ukrainians now have a deep salient pushing South in that part of the line. I’m trying to figure out why the Russians aren’t attempting to pinch it out in the North. By the looks of it their main lines of communications to that part of the front would be easily in range of UKR artillery as they run east/west, parallel with the front. The Ukrainians are basically attacking down the main supply line for that part of the front.

I've seen footage of Russians attempting to pinch it out by coming from the west north Robotyne. They failed. Damned if I can find the footage right now, though. Not very well right now.

[EACLucifer]

Rumours of a major drone attack against a Russian airbase in Kursk, claims of multiple drones getting through with only a few shot down. Supporting evidence exists in form of things like audio, as of writing no confirmation of damage.

Additionally, as with Shahed/Geran type "drones", Ukrainian "Bober" and other one-way systems are best thought of as low-spec cruise missiles rather than uncrewed aircraft, as they aren't intended to or able to land safely once they've taken off, they just fly to their target and aim to hit it and detonate an onboard warhead.

Sadly it appears satellite imagery does not support the idea of significant damage, if at all.

Never mind. Lots of burning airframes in Pskov.

I don't think we totally rule out Kursk, either, looking at the damage profile of the drones in question - they might make a lot of holes without showing up on satellite. We've seen it with M30A1 Alternative Warhead rockets, too - the footage just shows dust being kicked up, but when the Russians film their truck it from the ground it resembles a swiss cheese. I'm considering it unanswerable for the moment.

[dyqik]

the footage just shows dust being kicked up, but when the Russians film their truck it from the ground it resembles a swiss cheese.

Those are lightweighting holes to make it go faster.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like the Pskov attack was also small drones launched from inside Russia.

The outcome now appears to be two Il-76 Strategic Airlifters utterly destroyed and two more seriously damaged - Oryx records it as four damaged.

Hoping for a Tu-160 next.

This also needs to be a wakeup call to nations regarding security of both military and civilian aviation, especially as the resources required for this sort of attack place it within reach of non-state extremist groups and asymmetric actions by more or less any state.

[bjn]

Looks like the Pskov attack was also small drones launched from inside Russia.

The outcome now appears to be two Il-76 Strategic Airlifters utterly destroyed and two more seriously damaged - Oryx records it as four damaged.

Hoping for a Tu-160 next.

This also needs to be a wakeup call to nations regarding security of both military and civilian aviation, especially as the resources required for this sort of attack place it within reach of non-state extremist groups and asymmetric actions by more or less any state.

A few thousand dollars for a drone, call it 10K to be generous, taking out an aeroplane worth many tens of millions. Admittedly the team that did it needed getting there and not a small bit of bravery. Nonetheless, very much value for money.

[bjn]

To add. Ukraine has completely destroyed 2 IL-76s and damaged 2 more. Russian forces have somewhere around 120 of them, along with a number they can requisition from civilian operators. So losing 4 out of ~150 or so isn't going to hurt too much (depending on the exact models destroyed). However, this, along with the recent destruction of the Tu-22M, will force Russians to redeploy forces and air defence away from the front, as well as to make aircraft operate from even more remote bases. This is a good thing, even if the Ukrainians don't destroy another airframe.

[EACLucifer]

To add. Ukraine has completely destroyed 2 IL-76s and damaged 2 more. Russian forces have somewhere around 120 of them, along with a number they can requisition from civilian operators. So losing 4 out of ~150 or so isn't going to hurt too much (depending on the exact models destroyed). However, this, along with the recent destruction of the Tu-22M, will force Russians to redeploy forces and air defence away from the front, as well as to make aircraft operate from even more remote bases. This is a good thing, even if the Ukrainians don't destroy another airframe.

I'm pretty sure all four are beyond reasonable repair.

Also at least one was an air-to-air refueller, apparently - that's probably the one that went up really dramatically in the footage - and they have far fewer of those.

Ukrainian drones, both long ranged and short ranged, have damaged two strategic bombers and utterly destroyed a third, along with three airlifters, a tanker and - although Oryx doesn't list it I think the evidence is good enough for balance of probabilities - damaged an AWACS.

It's not enough to cripple the VKS, but it's expensive and annoying, and Ukraine has more drones and missiles in development. To quote Budanov, "it will get worse"

[jimbob]

To add. Ukraine has completely destroyed 2 IL-76s and damaged 2 more. Russian forces have somewhere around 120 of them, along with a number they can requisition from civilian operators. So losing 4 out of ~150 or so isn't going to hurt too much (depending on the exact models destroyed). However, this, along with the recent destruction of the Tu-22M, will force Russians to redeploy forces and air defence away from the front, as well as to make aircraft operate from even more remote bases. This is a good thing, even if the Ukrainians don't destroy another airframe.

I'm pretty sure all four are beyond reasonable repair.

Also at least one was an air-to-air refueller, apparently - that's probably the one that went up really dramatically in the footage - and they have far fewer of those.

Ukrainian drones, both long ranged and short ranged, have damaged two strategic bombers and utterly destroyed a third, along with three airlifters, a tanker and - although Oryx doesn't list it I think the evidence is good enough for balance of probabilities - damaged an AWACS.

It's not enough to cripple the VKS, but it's expensive and annoying, and Ukraine has more drones and missiles in development. To quote Budanov, "it will get worse"

Nice, and the AWACS was very probably damaged given the videos we saw

[bjn]

I’m seeing reports that Bayraktars are operating again in the southern Kherson and the Black Sea adjacent to Northern Crimea. Which implies heavy degradation of Russian air defence in those regions.

[jimbob]

I’m seeing reports that Bayraktars are operating again in the southern Kherson and the Black Sea adjacent to Northern Crimea. Which implies heavy degradation of Russian air defence in those regions.

Meanwhile Russia is putting more Pantisir systemm on towers around Moscow.

Good to tie up Russian air defence far from the battlefield. Probably time to hit St Petersburg too

[EACLucifer]

When the Soviets were developing the Mi-28 "Havoc" attack helicopter, they incorporated a secondary role as an anti-helicopter fighter. At the time, in the 70s and 80s, helicopters potentially represented a serious threat even to fighter jets, which couldn't pick them out from the clutter they could hide in at treetop height and had to slow down and get in close and fight them on their own terms. That changed with more advanced radars, which is why we don't really see fighter-helicopters as a concept now.

Anyway, we've now had footage from the Ukrainian side showing a drone escaping from a pursuing Mi-28, and the Russians have released footage purporting to be showing a Ukrainian drone destroyed by an Mi-28s cannon, from the helicopters viewpoint.

I do wish there's a way of bodging a stinger or similar onto these recon drones, potentially even aiming backwards. We saw with the deliberate collision with a Reaper, and similar with a Ukrainian Bayraktar, that Russian jets have to get in close to visually identify their targets. The same is true for Mi-28 Havocs trying to use their autocannon.

[EACLucifer]

It appears Ukrainian infantry are indeed on the Russian-held side of the central (some people say first, it's a difference in terminology) Surovikin line at Verbove. Though I'd mentioned this before, this is additional evidence, and it appears they have captured and are holding the infantry trench that is supposed to provide covering fire for the Dragons Teeth and the Anti-Tank Ditch, which the infantry have both passed.

It will take time to develop this, but it could lead to a rupture of the central Surovikin line.

[Woodchopper]

It will take time to develop this, but it could lead to a rupture of the central Surovikin line.

I hope so. The test will be how quickly Russia can place minefields and dig trenches around the Ukrainian breakthrough in order to contain it.

[Imrael]

I see theres been a Challenger 2 loss. Loks like minefield then artillery.

In view of the small number, non-standard ammo etc (and decent crew survivability) this might be the best tank type to "spend" in slighly risky situations just now.

[bjn]

Apparently the crew got away OK.

Given that Challenger 2s have been operating in a very hostile environment for many weeks now, losing one now means they are doing a good job. Compare to the number of Soviet era tanks being lost daily by the Russians.

[EACLucifer]

Apparently the crew got away OK.

Given that Challenger 2s have been operating in a very hostile environment for many weeks now, losing one now means they are doing a good job. Compare to the number of Soviet era tanks being lost daily by the Russians.

By the sound of it they are using the accurate range of the rifled gun to sit back a bit and support the T-64s. There was an interview and the crewman - who'd served on 64s, 72s and 80s - seemed to rather approve of the fact that the ammunition was all anti-vehicle; though not mentioned directly, APFSDS for tanks, HESH for all other vehicles and buildings.

Though it's the first loss of a Challenger 2 to enemy action in any conflict, that says a lot about the conflicts it's been in before. Previously crews have been able to sit tight while supported by other British units until recovery vehicles can get involved or they can otherwise skeddaddle, and that's not so much an option in Ukraine, especially given the rise of loitering munitions as a way of finishing off damaged vehicles.

As of writing, Ukrainian forces seem to be slowly pushing into Verbove, across the dragons' teeth and anti-vehicle ditch, and the Russians don't seem very happy about their lot.

Sadly, that means they reacted in the usual fashion - the murder of sixteen - so far - civilians with a missile strike on a market at Kostyantynivka.

[bjn]

Looks like ATACMS might be on the table.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send ... =103031722

[Woodchopper]

Looks like ATACMS might be on the table.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send ... =103031722

Includes this gem:

A surprising discovery could also ease the administration's choice to send the weapons: The U.S. has found it has more ATACMS in its inventory than originally assessed, the two officials told ABC News.

The serviceability of the rediscovered stockpile is not yet clear, nor which specific type of missiles it contains.

I doubt very much that they stumbled upon a pile of them somewhere. Possibly they’ve reassessed the operability of some old stocks or got hold of some from an export customer.

[jimbob]

Looks like ATACMS might be on the table.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send ... =103031722

Includes this gem:

A surprising discovery could also ease the administration's choice to send the weapons: The U.S. has found it has more ATACMS in its inventory than originally assessed, the two officials told ABC News.

The serviceability of the rediscovered stockpile is not yet clear, nor which specific type of missiles it contains.

I doubt very much that they stumbled upon a pile of them somewhere. Possibly they’ve reassessed the operability of some old stocks or got hold of some from an export customer.

Selling them to Morocco was a particularly bad look given all the comments

[Woodchopper]

Looks like ATACMS might be on the table.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send ... =103031722

Includes this gem:

A surprising discovery could also ease the administration's choice to send the weapons: The U.S. has found it has more ATACMS in its inventory than originally assessed, the two officials told ABC News.

The serviceability of the rediscovered stockpile is not yet clear, nor which specific type of missiles it contains.

I doubt very much that they stumbled upon a pile of them somewhere. Possibly they’ve reassessed the operability of some old stocks or got hold of some from an export customer.

Selling them to Morocco was a particularly bad look given all the comments

That was an order for new production from Lockheed Martin though. Delivery will probably be years in the future.

[Woodchopper]

Interesting article on Danish training of Ukrainian troops on Leopard 1A5 tanks. Includes getting instructors back from retirement and borrowing six tanks from museums.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... e-museums/

[EACLucifer]

Includes this gem:



I doubt very much that they stumbled upon a pile of them somewhere. Possibly they’ve reassessed the operability of some old stocks or got hold of some from an export customer.

Selling them to Morocco was a particularly bad look given all the comments

That was an order for new production from Lockheed Martin though. Delivery will probably be years in the future.

Yes, but those defending the decision repeatedly claimed that MGM-140 wasn't in production any more so stocks couldn't be backfilled. It was always nonsense, though, with Precision Strike Missile coming into service to outperform MGM-140 in every way very soon and replace it.

I'm confident the "finding" some is an excuse for inaction more than a year after they could and should have been sent, but I do wonder if there's an element of changing policy towards cluster munitions here as well. ATACMS is a family of one-per-pod missiles, and the original concept was the accurate-enough-but-not-precise M39, which had the job of deploying almost a thousand cluster bomblets up to 165km from the launcher to destroy a Soviet armoured column in a Fulda Gap type scenario. These are being rebuilt into the modern modern concept, the M57, which is much more accurate and carries a single warhead taken from the Harpoon anti-shipping missile.

A little while back John Ridge estimated the USA's stockpile to be about 2500 missiles, and for context about 450 were fired in the Iraq war

Of those, somewhere around eight hundred are cluster-warhead missiles, whether that's the 165km range M39 or the 300km range M39A1.

For things like hitting bridges, it's the unitary warhead that's wanted, but there are legit uses for the cluster warhead ones that would otherwise be scrapped or rebuilt which are unlikely to increase risk to civilians. Ukraine demonstrated the effectiveness of a cluster warhead missile - a Tochka-U - last year when they hit ships unloading at Berdyansk, starting an ammunition fire that sunk a landing ship and damaged others. The layout of the harbour is such the bomblets would hit the ships, land in the sea, or on the narrow mole, but not in the town.

Another obvious target is aviation facilities. Russia still maintains helicopters in southern Zaporizhzhia oblast, and it's obvious why - helicopters are slow, if too far away they are less useful. We saw what conventional MLRS could do to helicopter bases (repeatedly) at Chornobaivka - cluster warhead ATACMS variants could repeat this for Russia's remaining helicopter bases, and the 300km cluster warhead missile brings bases in Crimea into play as well.