Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 9:38 am

Storm Shadow seems to be confirmed

Looks like after initial discussion of the issue in late winter, governments were happy to leave it quietly bubbling along until ready for deployment. While surprise factor would be nice, there are legitimate reasons for publically confirming the transfer - ie concerns about what would happen if the Russians suddenly started finding fragments of missiles that they believe are only used by countries other than Ukraine.

While the Americans still seem sadly cowed by Russian bluster about redlines - despite the complete absence of any action after each of the numerous times we have crossed their so-called redlines - it's good to see the UK imposing redlines of our own. Wallace wrote to Shoigu last autumn saying cut out the major attacks on civilians, or there'll be consequences in the form of arms transfers. Now there are consequences.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 10:28 am

We all wonder what air defence doing, well, in the Russian case, it's schwacking their own helicopters - an Mi-28 gunship over Crimea and an Mi-8 transport over Bryansk in the last couple of days.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 11:31 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 10:28 am
We all wonder what air defence doing, well, in the Russian case, it's schwacking their own helicopters - an Mi-28 gunship over Crimea and an Mi-8 transport over Bryansk in the last couple of days.
And a Sukhoi-34 over Bryansk. Russians in panic looking for saboteurs. Paranoia due to ADM-160B MALDs and general Russian panic in last few days leading their own air defence to hit their own planes and then an attempt to save face, or is there a chance Ukrainian/Ukrainian-supported infiltrators are running around in Russia with MANPADS?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 12:12 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 11:31 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 10:28 am
We all wonder what air defence doing, well, in the Russian case, it's schwacking their own helicopters - an Mi-28 gunship over Crimea and an Mi-8 transport over Bryansk in the last couple of days.
And a Sukhoi-34 over Bryansk. Russians in panic looking for saboteurs. Paranoia due to ADM-160B MALDs and general Russian panic in last few days leading their own air defence to hit their own planes and then an attempt to save face, or is there a chance Ukrainian/Ukrainian-supported infiltrators are running around in Russia with MANPADS?
Not two. Four. Su-34 fighter-bomber, Su-35 fighter and two Mi-8 transports. Unclear yet if friendly fire or Ukrainian fire, but missile seen in video of one of the Mi-8s getting schwacked.

ETA: so far visual proof of two, but Russian sources talking about four.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sat May 13, 2023 4:34 pm

Suddenly I’m in favour of Russian air defence. Mind you ever since Malaysian Airways Flight 17 was shot down they’ve been shown to be fond of shooting down any old aircraft they feel like.
A bit churlish

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 13, 2023 4:40 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 12:12 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 11:31 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 10:28 am
We all wonder what air defence doing, well, in the Russian case, it's schwacking their own helicopters - an Mi-28 gunship over Crimea and an Mi-8 transport over Bryansk in the last couple of days.
And a Sukhoi-34 over Bryansk. Russians in panic looking for saboteurs. Paranoia due to ADM-160B MALDs and general Russian panic in last few days leading their own air defence to hit their own planes and then an attempt to save face, or is there a chance Ukrainian/Ukrainian-supported infiltrators are running around in Russia with MANPADS?
Not two. Four. Su-34 fighter-bomber, Su-35 fighter and two Mi-8 transports. Unclear yet if friendly fire or Ukrainian fire, but missile seen in video of one of the Mi-8s getting schwacked.

ETA: so far visual proof of two, but Russian sources talking about four.
Link here: https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Looks like they may have identified anything flying as a Storm Shadow.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 13, 2023 4:42 pm


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 5:44 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 4:42 pm
Possibly another: https://twitter.com/denestorteli/status ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Lots of rumours flying around - unlike several Russian helicopters and jets. Helicopters were apparently of a jamming variant, and rumours that they were "ambushed" and that air to air missiles were involved.

If someone's transferred western jets, or found a way to launch Meteor or AMRAAM from a Soviet-origin jet, I shall be very happy indeed. It is worth noting that the Polish and Slovenian transfers of MiG-29s were much delayed and much discussed, and that for the Polish transfers some of the jets apparently needed permission from a non-Polish country due to upgrades they carried...

So we've got something like seven aircraft downed - not got a solid source but I think a jet was downed over Donetsk a few days back, Mi-28 over Crimea, two jets and two or three helicopters over Bryansk. Possibly the whole idea of integrating Storm Shadow on Su-24 was a red herring, and we really sent something that starts with Ty and ends with Phoon. It hardly seems possible, but nor does any other explanation. f.ck knows, we'll probably find out one day.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 13, 2023 5:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 5:44 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 4:42 pm
Possibly another: https://twitter.com/denestorteli/status ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Lots of rumours flying around - unlike several Russian helicopters and jets. Helicopters were apparently of a jamming variant, and rumours that they were "ambushed" and that air to air missiles were involved.

If someone's transferred western jets, or found a way to launch Meteor or AMRAAM from a Soviet-origin jet, I shall be very happy indeed. It is worth noting that the Polish and Slovenian transfers of MiG-29s were much delayed and much discussed, and that for the Polish transfers some of the jets apparently needed permission from a non-Polish country due to upgrades they carried...
Here’s a source for the rumours:
Kommersant writes that the Su-34 & Su-35 were about to launch missiles at targets in the Chernihiv region and the two Mi-8 helicopters were accompanying them when all four were ambushed and shot down by ‘enemy air-to-air missiles’ in the RU Bryansk region.
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/165 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 6:08 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 5:55 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 5:44 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 4:42 pm
Possibly another: https://twitter.com/denestorteli/status ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Lots of rumours flying around - unlike several Russian helicopters and jets. Helicopters were apparently of a jamming variant, and rumours that they were "ambushed" and that air to air missiles were involved.

If someone's transferred western jets, or found a way to launch Meteor or AMRAAM from a Soviet-origin jet, I shall be very happy indeed. It is worth noting that the Polish and Slovenian transfers of MiG-29s were much delayed and much discussed, and that for the Polish transfers some of the jets apparently needed permission from a non-Polish country due to upgrades they carried...
Here’s a source for the rumours:
Kommersant writes that the Su-34 & Su-35 were about to launch missiles at targets in the Chernihiv region and the two Mi-8 helicopters were accompanying them when all four were ambushed and shot down by ‘enemy air-to-air missiles’ in the RU Bryansk region.
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/165 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Interesting, thanks. Footage of one of the Mi-8s actually shows the missile inbound, I'm going to see if I can make anything out from freeze frames, though realistically it probably takes an expert and I'm not one.

One data point I will add, though - in one piece of footage the explosion is shockingly loud and sends the people filming reeling when the shockwave arrives, not something one associates with MANPADS.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 6:22 pm

Hard to tell, it's blurred and in just one frame, but the one thing I can discern is the length - about a third of the length of one rotor of the Mi-8. That puts it in the 3.5 metre range. That's bang on for AMRAAM and Meteor, both 3.65M. By contrast Patriot's missiles are ca.5M and S-300's missiles are 7-10M in length. R-27, the main long range missile used by Ukraine's MiG-29s, are a bit over four metres in length, while MANPADS are all much smaller. I'm only looking at long range air-to-air missiles and ground launched ones for now, as I can't see any scenario where dogfight missiles like Sidewinders are used here.

Also the ca.20kg warhead of AMRAAM or Meteor is a much better candidate for that blast.

Slow motion footage here, I used a freeze frame to measure the comparative lengths.

So what I initially though of as a "WTF, no...surely it can't be" might actually be.

ETA: the other possibility is NASAMS, but I think this was too far even for an AMRAAM-ER launched from the ground. I don't know if the very long range AIM-120D variant can be fired from NASAMS, because that could be a candidate.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat May 13, 2023 7:17 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 6:22 pm
Hard to tell, it's blurred and in just one frame, but the one thing I can discern is the length - about a third of the length of one rotor of the Mi-8. That puts it in the 3.5 metre range. That's bang on for AMRAAM and Meteor, both 3.65M. By contrast Patriot's missiles are ca.5M and S-300's missiles are 7-10M in length. R-27, the main long range missile used by Ukraine's MiG-29s, are a bit over four metres in length, while MANPADS are all much smaller. I'm only looking at long range air-to-air missiles and ground launched ones for now, as I can't see any scenario where dogfight missiles like Sidewinders are used here.

Also the ca.20kg warhead of AMRAAM or Meteor is a much better candidate for that blast.

Slow motion footage here, I used a freeze frame to measure the comparative lengths.

So what I initially though of as a "WTF, no...surely it can't be" might actually be.

ETA: the other possibility is NASAMS, but I think this was too far even for an AMRAAM-ER launched from the ground. I don't know if the very long range AIM-120D variant can be fired from NASAMS, because that could be a candidate.
Any Russian missiles that fit the bill?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 7:53 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:17 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 6:22 pm
Hard to tell, it's blurred and in just one frame, but the one thing I can discern is the length - about a third of the length of one rotor of the Mi-8. That puts it in the 3.5 metre range. That's bang on for AMRAAM and Meteor, both 3.65M. By contrast Patriot's missiles are ca.5M and S-300's missiles are 7-10M in length. R-27, the main long range missile used by Ukraine's MiG-29s, are a bit over four metres in length, while MANPADS are all much smaller. I'm only looking at long range air-to-air missiles and ground launched ones for now, as I can't see any scenario where dogfight missiles like Sidewinders are used here.

Also the ca.20kg warhead of AMRAAM or Meteor is a much better candidate for that blast.

Slow motion footage here, I used a freeze frame to measure the comparative lengths.

So what I initially though of as a "WTF, no...surely it can't be" might actually be.

ETA: the other possibility is NASAMS, but I think this was too far even for an AMRAAM-ER launched from the ground. I don't know if the very long range AIM-120D variant can be fired from NASAMS, because that could be a candidate.
Any Russian missiles that fit the bill?
None of the more major SAMs like Buk, S-300 etc, they are 5+ and 7+ metres respectively. The 57E6 fired from the Pantsir is 3.1M and has similar warhead size and the older 9M311 for the Tunguska is 2.5M, so not an ideal fit. Range is 18km for the Pantsir and half that for the Tunguska. There was a bit of distance between the targets, and they were a lot further from the Ukrainian border than that. Annoyingly, I can't it find now but someone posted a map of where the shootdowns were - the spread between them as well as the distance could be informative.

As for air to air stuff, the R-27 is a bit over four metres long. It has a lot of variants, but up to this point Ukrainian pilots were highlighting the problems they had with short range and the need to paint the target for semi-active radar homing. That indicates they are using shorter range older variants, that would place the shooter over Russian territory.

The more modern R-77 and R-37 are post-Soviet, meaning that only the Russians have access to them. Of Russian missiles, the R-77 is the best fit - 3.6 metres long. R-37 is 4.2M and really fat. For both these missiles the question is why a Russian jet would launch a salvo at what was apparently a planned mission involving jets and specialist helicopters.

The infrared guided R-73 is a bit under three metres long and the range again places the shooter solidly over Russian soil.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat May 13, 2023 7:56 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:53 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:17 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 6:22 pm
Hard to tell, it's blurred and in just one frame, but the one thing I can discern is the length - about a third of the length of one rotor of the Mi-8. That puts it in the 3.5 metre range. That's bang on for AMRAAM and Meteor, both 3.65M. By contrast Patriot's missiles are ca.5M and S-300's missiles are 7-10M in length. R-27, the main long range missile used by Ukraine's MiG-29s, are a bit over four metres in length, while MANPADS are all much smaller. I'm only looking at long range air-to-air missiles and ground launched ones for now, as I can't see any scenario where dogfight missiles like Sidewinders are used here.

Also the ca.20kg warhead of AMRAAM or Meteor is a much better candidate for that blast.

Slow motion footage here, I used a freeze frame to measure the comparative lengths.

So what I initially though of as a "WTF, no...surely it can't be" might actually be.

ETA: the other possibility is NASAMS, but I think this was too far even for an AMRAAM-ER launched from the ground. I don't know if the very long range AIM-120D variant can be fired from NASAMS, because that could be a candidate.
Any Russian missiles that fit the bill?
None of the more major SAMs like Buk, S-300 etc, they are 5+ and 7+ metres respectively. The 57E6 fired from the Pantsir is 3.1M and has similar warhead size and the older 9M311 for the Tunguska is 2.5M, so not an ideal fit. Range is 18km for the Pantsir and half that for the Tunguska. There was a bit of distance between the targets, and they were a lot further from the Ukrainian border than that. Annoyingly, I can't it find now but someone posted a map of where the shootdowns were - the spread between them as well as the distance could be informative.

As for air to air stuff, the R-27 is a bit over four metres long. It has a lot of variants, but up to this point Ukrainian pilots were highlighting the problems they had with short range and the need to paint the target for semi-active radar homing. That indicates they are using shorter range older variants, that would place the shooter over Russian territory.

The more modern R-77 and R-37 are post-Soviet, meaning that only the Russians have access to them. Of Russian missiles, the R-77 is the best fit - 3.6 metres long. R-37 is 4.2M and really fat. For both these missiles the question is why a Russian jet would launch a salvo at what was apparently a planned mission involving jets and specialist helicopters.

The infrared guided R-73 is a bit under three metres long and the range again places the shooter solidly over Russian soil.
Suddenly, it looks like the Russian planners have to factor in a lot of new Ukrainian capabilities.

At short notice
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 7:59 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:56 pm
Suddenly, it looks like the Russian planners have to factor in a lot of new Ukrainian capabilities.

At short notice
And uncertainty about them. I wonder if they have any more idea about what happened than we did?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 8:09 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:53 pm
Annoyingly, I can't it find now but someone posted a map of where the shootdowns were - the spread between them as well as the distance could be informative.
It was Alex Kokcharov, and his map is here;

Image

38km between shootdowns if that's accurate, so won't be Pantsir I'm sure. Looking like something coordinated, not random fire assuming there's not some major error in my missile length estimate.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat May 13, 2023 8:10 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:59 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:56 pm
Suddenly, it looks like the Russian planners have to factor in a lot of new Ukrainian capabilities.

At short notice
And uncertainty about them. I wonder if they have any more idea about what happened than we did?
I hope they have tons of it, all contradictory, and half supplied by the SBU.

And with a lot saying that it was sabotage from Wagner PMC.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat May 13, 2023 8:36 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 6:22 pm
Hard to tell, it's blurred and in just one frame, but the one thing I can discern is the length - about a third of the length of one rotor of the Mi-8. That puts it in the 3.5 metre range. That's bang on for AMRAAM and Meteor, both 3.65M. By contrast Patriot's missiles are ca.5M and S-300's missiles are 7-10M in length. R-27, the main long range missile used by Ukraine's MiG-29s, are a bit over four metres in length, while MANPADS are all much smaller. I'm only looking at long range air-to-air missiles and ground launched ones for now, as I can't see any scenario where dogfight missiles like Sidewinders are used here.

Also the ca.20kg warhead of AMRAAM or Meteor is a much better candidate for that blast.

Slow motion footage here, I used a freeze frame to measure the comparative lengths.

So what I initially though of as a "WTF, no...surely it can't be" might actually be.

ETA: the other possibility is NASAMS, but I think this was too far even for an AMRAAM-ER launched from the ground. I don't know if the very long range AIM-120D variant can be fired from NASAMS, because that could be a candidate.
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2009-03 ... se-Missile


AMRAAM from HIMARS launcher?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 9:06 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 8:36 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 6:22 pm
Hard to tell, it's blurred and in just one frame, but the one thing I can discern is the length - about a third of the length of one rotor of the Mi-8. That puts it in the 3.5 metre range. That's bang on for AMRAAM and Meteor, both 3.65M. By contrast Patriot's missiles are ca.5M and S-300's missiles are 7-10M in length. R-27, the main long range missile used by Ukraine's MiG-29s, are a bit over four metres in length, while MANPADS are all much smaller. I'm only looking at long range air-to-air missiles and ground launched ones for now, as I can't see any scenario where dogfight missiles like Sidewinders are used here.

Also the ca.20kg warhead of AMRAAM or Meteor is a much better candidate for that blast.

Slow motion footage here, I used a freeze frame to measure the comparative lengths.

So what I initially though of as a "WTF, no...surely it can't be" might actually be.

ETA: the other possibility is NASAMS, but I think this was too far even for an AMRAAM-ER launched from the ground. I don't know if the very long range AIM-120D variant can be fired from NASAMS, because that could be a candidate.
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2009-03 ... se-Missile


AMRAAM from HIMARS launcher?
NASAMS launches AMRAAMs from the ground, and is in service in Ukraine. NASAMS is usually quoted as a 30km range, insufficient for this spree, but NASAMS with ER AMRAAM (which is actually a totally different missile body - though similar length - with an AMRAAM seeker) is quoted as 50km. Would need it to be right on the border. Missiles go a lot further when fired from a jet than when fired from a static ground launcher. Or maybe someone adapted NASAMS to use the most modern long range AMRAAMS or even some bizarre NASAMS/Meteor combination.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat May 13, 2023 9:41 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:53 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:17 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 6:22 pm
Hard to tell, it's blurred and in just one frame, but the one thing I can discern is the length - about a third of the length of one rotor of the Mi-8. That puts it in the 3.5 metre range. That's bang on for AMRAAM and Meteor, both 3.65M. By contrast Patriot's missiles are ca.5M and S-300's missiles are 7-10M in length. R-27, the main long range missile used by Ukraine's MiG-29s, are a bit over four metres in length, while MANPADS are all much smaller. I'm only looking at long range air-to-air missiles and ground launched ones for now, as I can't see any scenario where dogfight missiles like Sidewinders are used here.

Also the ca.20kg warhead of AMRAAM or Meteor is a much better candidate for that blast.

Slow motion footage here, I used a freeze frame to measure the comparative lengths.

So what I initially though of as a "WTF, no...surely it can't be" might actually be.

ETA: the other possibility is NASAMS, but I think this was too far even for an AMRAAM-ER launched from the ground. I don't know if the very long range AIM-120D variant can be fired from NASAMS, because that could be a candidate.
Any Russian missiles that fit the bill?
None of the more major SAMs like Buk, S-300 etc, they are 5+ and 7+ metres respectively. The 57E6 fired from the Pantsir is 3.1M and has similar warhead size and the older 9M311 for the Tunguska is 2.5M, so not an ideal fit. Range is 18km for the Pantsir and half that for the Tunguska. There was a bit of distance between the targets, and they were a lot further from the Ukrainian border than that. Annoyingly, I can't it find now but someone posted a map of where the shootdowns were - the spread between them as well as the distance could be informative.

As for air to air stuff, the R-27 is a bit over four metres long. It has a lot of variants, but up to this point Ukrainian pilots were highlighting the problems they had with short range and the need to paint the target for semi-active radar homing. That indicates they are using shorter range older variants, that would place the shooter over Russian territory.

The more modern R-77 and R-37 are post-Soviet, meaning that only the Russians have access to them. Of Russian missiles, the R-77 is the best fit - 3.6 metres long. R-37 is 4.2M and really fat. For both these missiles the question is why a Russian jet would launch a salvo at what was apparently a planned mission involving jets and specialist helicopters.

The infrared guided R-73 is a bit under three metres long and the range again places the shooter solidly over Russian soil.
One question, if you are comparing the relative lengths, are you able to guess the angle? A missile at 45⁰ towards the camera would seem to be 71% of its actual length, for example
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 9:45 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 9:41 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:53 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:17 pm

Any Russian missiles that fit the bill?
None of the more major SAMs like Buk, S-300 etc, they are 5+ and 7+ metres respectively. The 57E6 fired from the Pantsir is 3.1M and has similar warhead size and the older 9M311 for the Tunguska is 2.5M, so not an ideal fit. Range is 18km for the Pantsir and half that for the Tunguska. There was a bit of distance between the targets, and they were a lot further from the Ukrainian border than that. Annoyingly, I can't it find now but someone posted a map of where the shootdowns were - the spread between them as well as the distance could be informative.

As for air to air stuff, the R-27 is a bit over four metres long. It has a lot of variants, but up to this point Ukrainian pilots were highlighting the problems they had with short range and the need to paint the target for semi-active radar homing. That indicates they are using shorter range older variants, that would place the shooter over Russian territory.

The more modern R-77 and R-37 are post-Soviet, meaning that only the Russians have access to them. Of Russian missiles, the R-77 is the best fit - 3.6 metres long. R-37 is 4.2M and really fat. For both these missiles the question is why a Russian jet would launch a salvo at what was apparently a planned mission involving jets and specialist helicopters.

The infrared guided R-73 is a bit under three metres long and the range again places the shooter solidly over Russian soil.
One question, if you are comparing the relative lengths, are you able to guess the angle? A missile at 45⁰ towards the camera would seem to be 71% of its actual length, for example
All I've got is perceived flight path, so not really. It's quick and dirty, not the sort of thing that would stand up in court. On the other hand, the missile and it's direction of travel (it's only in focus in one frame, but you can see it move as it comes in, which is odd, but pretty common when doing freeze frame stuff on twitter) seem pretty much in line, and I picked the rotor blade to measure that appeared most inline with the missile so they'd have the closest amoung of foreshortening. Realistically what we've got is that it was longer than a MANPADS or dogfight missile and shorter than a large SAM, but there's no sense trying to pick out what kind of AAM it is - the significance is the apparent range from where the impact was, not the length.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat May 13, 2023 9:53 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 9:45 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 9:41 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 7:53 pm


None of the more major SAMs like Buk, S-300 etc, they are 5+ and 7+ metres respectively. The 57E6 fired from the Pantsir is 3.1M and has similar warhead size and the older 9M311 for the Tunguska is 2.5M, so not an ideal fit. Range is 18km for the Pantsir and half that for the Tunguska. There was a bit of distance between the targets, and they were a lot further from the Ukrainian border than that. Annoyingly, I can't it find now but someone posted a map of where the shootdowns were - the spread between them as well as the distance could be informative.

As for air to air stuff, the R-27 is a bit over four metres long. It has a lot of variants, but up to this point Ukrainian pilots were highlighting the problems they had with short range and the need to paint the target for semi-active radar homing. That indicates they are using shorter range older variants, that would place the shooter over Russian territory.

The more modern R-77 and R-37 are post-Soviet, meaning that only the Russians have access to them. Of Russian missiles, the R-77 is the best fit - 3.6 metres long. R-37 is 4.2M and really fat. For both these missiles the question is why a Russian jet would launch a salvo at what was apparently a planned mission involving jets and specialist helicopters.

The infrared guided R-73 is a bit under three metres long and the range again places the shooter solidly over Russian soil.
One question, if you are comparing the relative lengths, are you able to guess the angle? A missile at 45⁰ towards the camera would seem to be 71% of its actual length, for example
All I've got is perceived flight path, so not really. It's quick and dirty, not the sort of thing that would stand up in court. On the other hand, the missile and it's direction of travel (it's only in focus in one frame, but you can see it move as it comes in, which is odd, but pretty common when doing freeze frame stuff on twitter) seem pretty much in line, and I picked the rotor blade to measure that appeared most inline with the missile so they'd have the closest amoung of foreshortening. Realistically what we've got is that it was longer than a MANPADS or dogfight missile and shorter than a large SAM, but there's no sense trying to pick out what kind of AAM it is - the significance is the apparent range from where the impact was, not the length.
Thanks, I'm not sure how well you can put an upper bound on the length with that approach. A lower bound, yes.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 13, 2023 10:15 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 9:53 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 9:45 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat May 13, 2023 9:41 pm


One question, if you are comparing the relative lengths, are you able to guess the angle? A missile at 45⁰ towards the camera would seem to be 71% of its actual length, for example
All I've got is perceived flight path, so not really. It's quick and dirty, not the sort of thing that would stand up in court. On the other hand, the missile and it's direction of travel (it's only in focus in one frame, but you can see it move as it comes in, which is odd, but pretty common when doing freeze frame stuff on twitter) seem pretty much in line, and I picked the rotor blade to measure that appeared most inline with the missile so they'd have the closest amoung of foreshortening. Realistically what we've got is that it was longer than a MANPADS or dogfight missile and shorter than a large SAM, but there's no sense trying to pick out what kind of AAM it is - the significance is the apparent range from where the impact was, not the length.
Thanks, I'm not sure how well you can put an upper bound on the length with that approach. A lower bound, yes.
The other thing you can look at is aspect ratio, but it's pretty challenging when the focus is off. That said, I'd be quite confident in ruling out the biggest stuff that way, as if foreshortened that much they'd look very stubby. There's also expected trajectory to consider, with anything launched from/over Ukrainian soil likely to come in fairly horizontal, and if the missile had been climbing - which would give the biggest effect for foreshortening - there'd probably have been more reports of air defence launches. Another factor is the lack of a smoke trail suggesting either a missile that doesn't leave much of a one, or that has burned out its motor.

Very hard to nail down anything solid, but the footage is consistent with claims of air-to-air munitions and not very consistent with ground based air defence, though that can't be solidly ruled out.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun May 14, 2023 9:42 am

Storm Shadow remnants found after strikes against targets in Luhansk: https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

We can expect more strikes against logistics and command targets.

One issue is how many have been supplied. Will be far fewer than HIMARS.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 14, 2023 1:08 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun May 14, 2023 9:42 am
Storm Shadow remnants found after strikes against targets in Luhansk: https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

We can expect more strikes against logistics and command targets.

One issue is how many have been supplied. Will be far fewer than HIMARS.
Mentioned it upthread, but it got rather swamped by what happened to the VKS yesterday. And it is absolutely to be expected fewer will have been supplied than M30/31s, but there's a reasonably decent number in inventory and the UK doesn't often fire them - though with considerable effect when they are fired. They were a major part of the SEAD for the campaign against Gaddafi, knocking out fixed radar positions. The warhead on a Storm Shadow is radically bigger than that of an M31 rocket, meaning we won't see munition after munition expended to slowly chew through a bridge. Use with ADM160 MALDs should help ensure they get through and do their job. Storm Shadow has always been a missile for very high value targets.

Meanwhile a point someone made about the shootdowns yesterday seems relevant - the Russian response was to fly their helicopters lower, not higher, and I'd myself add that they also didn't seem interested in popping flares. Between that, the warhead size and the missile length there's no way it was MANPADS, and the Russian response suggests that they think it was something radar guided, be it ground or air launched.

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