Blyatskrieg
- EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg
It remains unclear just how many Russians were able to get out of Lyman before Ukrainian troops got control of most of the ways out, and indeed if there are still any avenues for them to easily escape - it's not clear what's going on at the northern end of Tors'ke, for example.
That said, even without trapping substantial numbers of troops, capturing Lyman and its environs is an essential step towards the advance on Svyatove and Starobilsk.
That said, even without trapping substantial numbers of troops, capturing Lyman and its environs is an essential step towards the advance on Svyatove and Starobilsk.
- Woodchopper
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Yes, there’s video which apparently shows large numbers of them getting out with their equipment. If genuine it suggests that Lyman wasn’t surrounded.
https://twitter.com/backandalive/status ... FfAR5Sxh7Q
https://twitter.com/backandalive/status ... FfAR5Sxh7Q
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:47 pmYes, there’s video which apparently shows large numbers of them getting out with their equipment. If genuine it suggests that Lyman wasn’t surrounded.
https://twitter.com/backandalive/status ... FfAR5Sxh7Q
It's the same footage we were discussing here.
ETA: Found a proper geolocation. 49.020986773948096, 37.947773936040875 (yes I know too many significant figures). That's Zarichne, and they were heading for the bridge of the Zherebets. A bridge was reported destroyed and I think it was this one, but that would be after this convoy crossed. The convoy was reportedly filmed yesterday morning, and can't have been much later than noon Ukraine time as it was posted around 12 GMT yesterday (30-09-2022)
In general the Russians have been quite good at getting personnel out of encirclements, not to much equipment. And getting some troops out in good order isn't the same as getting all of them out. That footage is reportedly from the Zarichne end of things, which wouldn't have been in an encirclement to begin with. Time will tell.
There's also a lot of footage I won't link. It looks like a lot of largely encircled Russians chose to try and make a break for it rather than surrender and ran into ambushes/planned killzones, suffering extremely heavy losses.
(I feel like this is as good a point as any to note I try to avoid watching that sort of thing too. I go on descriptions, and where the source is unknown/not trustworthy, I'll check a few stills to confirm the accuracy of the descriptions. And if you aren't trying to directly track things, you don't need to do that)
Re: Blyatskrieg
(Who doesn't need to know their location to ±10um precision*.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:58 pm
ETA: Found a proper geolocation. 49.020986773948096, 37.947773936040875 (yes I know too many significant figures).
Ok, yes, we can do this with mm wave VLBI)
Re: Blyatskrieg
Someone's dropped another cigarette in Sevastopol.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
What’s happened?
A Google just brings up the convoy that was hit, and the news that the nuclear plant’s chief has been kidnapped.
A Google just brings up the convoy that was hit, and the news that the nuclear plant’s chief has been kidnapped.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Stuff is blowing up at an airbase in Crimea, as seen from this beach. May not be safe for work, as a) stuff blowing up and b) Crimean beach-goers.
Russian claim is that an aircraft skidded off the runway. Might even be true.
ETA: This footage supports the Russian claim it was one of their planes overshooting the runway.. Usual warnings apply, if you don't want to watch a plane crashing, don't watch it. It's possible that this was caused by a large mysterious red circle
Re: Blyatskrieg
According to TASS the pilot managed to evacuate.
Also, he ejected.
Also, he ejected.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
On the one hand they would say that.
On the other hand, some ejection seats can lift the pilot high enough for their parachute to function even when the plane is still and on the ground, so it isn't impossible.
Re: Blyatskrieg
I suspect TimW is implying the pilot shat himself.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
Fintan O'Toole
Fintan O'Toole
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Re: Blyatskrieg
So in some ways, I think the Lyman offensive over the last couple of weeks was more impressive than the Kupyans'k-Izyum liberation, though less territory was freed.
Earlier, Ukraine found a point the Russians had barely defended, and hammered it with classic manoeuvre warfare tactics. A great victory that made exploited to the maximum the Russian weakness, yes, but with Lyman, the city was properly defended, with multiple battalions of Russians present. Despite that, the Ukrainians were able to methodically pin them in place and break through both flanks, collapsing the Russian position. A lot of prisoners were taken, and an awful lot of Russians were killed as they tried to escape rather than surrender, and above all the strategically vital city of Lyman has been liberated, protecting Slovyansk, and enabling Ukrainian forces to push on towards Kreminna (and on from there to Rubizhne and Severodonetsk, one presumes) and north towards Svatove, neither of which would have been possible with Lyman in Russian hands.
The Russian defence of Lyman, however, bought the Russians time. The question now is did they actually use that time to stiffen their defences? If not, we might see some more advances soon. That said, the Ukrainian forces are likely physically exhausted and - going by reports I've seen - mentally and morally exhausted and will need time to recover.
Earlier, Ukraine found a point the Russians had barely defended, and hammered it with classic manoeuvre warfare tactics. A great victory that made exploited to the maximum the Russian weakness, yes, but with Lyman, the city was properly defended, with multiple battalions of Russians present. Despite that, the Ukrainians were able to methodically pin them in place and break through both flanks, collapsing the Russian position. A lot of prisoners were taken, and an awful lot of Russians were killed as they tried to escape rather than surrender, and above all the strategically vital city of Lyman has been liberated, protecting Slovyansk, and enabling Ukrainian forces to push on towards Kreminna (and on from there to Rubizhne and Severodonetsk, one presumes) and north towards Svatove, neither of which would have been possible with Lyman in Russian hands.
The Russian defence of Lyman, however, bought the Russians time. The question now is did they actually use that time to stiffen their defences? If not, we might see some more advances soon. That said, the Ukrainian forces are likely physically exhausted and - going by reports I've seen - mentally and morally exhausted and will need time to recover.
Re: Blyatskrieg
To be honest, this war is going to be won in the south. The attrition in Kherson is what counts. Unlocking territory in Luhansk has far less value than being able to threaten Crimea.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Although as Ukraine pushes forward in the North, it lengthens and threatens more of the Russian supply lines in the south.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Makes sense, but arent we too close to mud season for very much more? Not sure how this works in that area - is there a frozen ground period of better mobility, or are things difficult until next late spring?That said, the Ukrainian forces are likely physically exhausted and - going by reports I've seen - mentally and morally exhausted and will need time to recover.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Keeping the Russians busy on another front is a good way to do that. I’ve seen accounts that say the Ukrainians were quite surprised at how well they did in the east. The size of that collapse will stop Russians reinforcing Kherson as well as they would otherwise, along with not a few blown up bridges.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Depends how hard the ground freezes. Usually there is a frozen period, though last winter things didn't freeze very hard and there was more mud than usual.Imrael wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:28 pmMakes sense, but arent we too close to mud season for very much more? Not sure how this works in that area - is there a frozen ground period of better mobility, or are things difficult until next late spring?That said, the Ukrainian forces are likely physically exhausted and - going by reports I've seen - mentally and morally exhausted and will need time to recover.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Liberating territory in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk is a worthy goal in its own right. It also draws Russian reinforcements away from the south, puts political pressure on the Russians, demonstrates to western allies that Ukraine can win - which in turn unlocks more military aid - and lays the groundwork for the liberation of the territories occupied since 2014 in the east.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is still advancing in the south. There seems to have been a bit of a push along the west bank of the Dnipro in the last few days.
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Speaking of the south...
Novovorontsovka, Kherson oblast. There's also news of the liberation of Zolota Balka, and Russian sources put Ukrainian troops in Bilyaivka and Shevchenkivka, which would mean a 10-15km advance since I last knew where they were, but then there's a very tight hold on information in the south.
This would also mean that Dnipropetrovsk oblast is cleared of occupiers, not that they ever had more than a toehold there anyway.
Novovorontsovka, Kherson oblast. There's also news of the liberation of Zolota Balka, and Russian sources put Ukrainian troops in Bilyaivka and Shevchenkivka, which would mean a 10-15km advance since I last knew where they were, but then there's a very tight hold on information in the south.
This would also mean that Dnipropetrovsk oblast is cleared of occupiers, not that they ever had more than a toehold there anyway.
Re: Blyatskrieg
And again, with Russia probably expending more ammunition than they're getting in that area, eventually they'll be forced to scale back their fighting there.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Blyatskrieg
Indeed, but it was TASS wot said it https://tass.com/russia/1516519
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Re: Blyatskrieg
Nothing solid yet beyond what I've posted, but all eyes on northeastern Kherson oblast right now.
Re: Blyatskrieg
What is piled up around the statue?EACLucifer wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:32 pmSpeaking of the south...
Novovorontsovka, Kherson oblast. There's also news of the liberation of Zolota Balka, and Russian sources put Ukrainian troops in Bilyaivka and Shevchenkivka, which would mean a 10-15km advance since I last knew where they were, but then there's a very tight hold on information in the south.
This would also mean that Dnipropetrovsk oblast is cleared of occupiers, not that they ever had more than a toehold there anyway.
It looks the sort of shape I assume anti tank mines often have, but the colours look far too bright.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Blyatskrieg
My question ^^ was answered in this video by Radio Free Europe - yes, antitank mines.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_S_Bowen/stat ... NmbthTvtPA
https://twitter.com/Andrew_S_Bowen/stat ... NmbthTvtPA
A good look into tactics. Coordinated use of infantry, supported by tanks and coordinated with real time intelligence from drones. Effective use of combined arms against rigid and inflexible Russian forces with poor support
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation