Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

Claims that a modified Neptune missile in a ground attack as opposed to ship attack mode was used on an S400 battery in Crimea.

The Neptune has a range of about 360km and if it's accurate enough to destroy a SAM system, it is another thing the Russians have to try mitigating against.

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/16 ... 29583?s=20
.

Artoir
@ItsArtoir
Myroslav Hai reports that the strike on the S-400 battery in Crimea was indeed a ground launched Neptune.

Further states that Luch Design Bureau began work on the project under instructions from Zaluzhnyi in March 2022.

With a link to the Facebook story (in Ukrainian but automatically translated)

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... sn=scwspmo

The accuracy standards of modern weapons are quite remarkable. Even if it carries GPS just to get it into the right location for its radar to pick up warships, that's enough to make it a reasonably accurate cruise missile. An anti-radiation seeker can't be excluded either, though from the footage it hit the TELs, causing enormous secondary explosions, while an anti-radiation seeker would have gone for the radars.

There's been a big effort to try and get Neptune and Hrim-2/Sapsan into production, but one only sees occasional details for obvious reasons, like when Zelenskyy replaced the head of Ukroboronprom at the end of June for, among other things, failing to get Hrim-2/Sapsan missiles fired in anger yet.

[EACLucifer]

Rumours of a major drone attack against a Russian airbase in Kursk, claims of multiple drones getting through with only a few shot down. Supporting evidence exists in form of things like audio, as of writing no confirmation of damage.

Additionally, as with Shahed/Geran type "drones", Ukrainian "Bober" and other one-way systems are best thought of as low-spec cruise missiles rather than uncrewed aircraft, as they aren't intended to or able to land safely once they've taken off, they just fly to their target and aim to hit it and detonate an onboard warhead.

[EACLucifer]

Seen a few tanks and BMPs captured over the last few days. POWs, too. Not sure of details, but along with things like the Russian Lancet strike on their own damaged tank, suggests that Ukrainian forces are moving forwards.

[jimbob]

I have seen a video purporting to be a 1940s T10 being readied for use.

It looks CGI to me

https://twitter.com/region776/status/16 ... 10986?s=20

Also, even if it is a real T10, there's no context to believe it's actually getting prepared for anything specific

[EACLucifer]

I have seen a video purporting to be a 1940s T10 being readied for use.

It looks CGI to me

https://twitter.com/region776/status/16 ... 10986?s=20

Also, even if it is a real T10, there's no context to believe it's actually getting prepared for anything specific

Account's now dead. No reason to believe T-10 being readied, anyway, Russia's already using 1940s designed tanks in the form of T-54s. The only accounts I've seen taking this seriously are either gullible and prone to distributing misinformation, or ones that don't really try to assess the military side of things at all picking it up from the gullible ones.

In addition, there are 1940s designed tanks, or at least lineages that start in the 40s, that could actually be quite useful on the battlefield still if suitably upgraded with modern optics and add-on armour - the aforementioned T-54/55s, M-48s and Centurions all still have derivatives kicking about, and Vietnam has actually made quite sensible use of T-34-85s to defend its islands against China - the T-34-85 is obsolete, but could still kick the arse of any IFV, and because it has a pneumatic starter, it can be stored long term in a cave and just fired up if there's an invasion.

[jimbob]

I have seen a video purporting to be a 1940s T10 being readied for use.

It looks CGI to me

https://twitter.com/region776/status/16 ... 10986?s=20

Also, even if it is a real T10, there's no context to believe it's actually getting prepared for anything specific

Account's now dead. No reason to believe T-10 being readied, anyway, Russia's already using 1940s designed tanks in the form of T-54s. The only accounts I've seen taking this seriously are either gullible and prone to distributing misinformation, or ones that don't really try to assess the military side of things at all picking it up from the gullible ones.

In addition, there are 1940s designed tanks, or at least lineages that start in the 40s, that could actually be quite useful on the battlefield still if suitably upgraded with modern optics and add-on armour - the aforementioned T-54/55s, M-48s and Centurions all still have derivatives kicking about, and Vietnam has actually made quite sensible use of T-34-85s to defend its islands against China - the T-34-85 is obsolete, but could still kick the arse of any IFV, and because it has a pneumatic starter, it can be stored long term in a cave and just fired up if there's an invasion.

yes, very sus

https://twitter.com/Ukraina8648545/stat ... 48748?s=20

[Martin_B]

I have seen a video purporting to be a 1940s T10 being readied for use.

It looks CGI to me

https://twitter.com/region776/status/16 ... 10986?s=20

Also, even if it is a real T10, there's no context to believe it's actually getting prepared for anything specific

Account's now dead. No reason to believe T-10 being readied, anyway, Russia's already using 1940s designed tanks in the form of T-54s. The only accounts I've seen taking this seriously are either gullible and prone to distributing misinformation, or ones that don't really try to assess the military side of things at all picking it up from the gullible ones.

In addition, there are 1940s designed tanks, or at least lineages that start in the 40s, that could actually be quite useful on the battlefield still if suitably upgraded with modern optics and add-on armour - the aforementioned T-54/55s, M-48s and Centurions all still have derivatives kicking about, and Vietnam has actually made quite sensible use of T-34-85s to defend its islands against China - the T-34-85 is obsolete, but could still kick the arse of any IFV, and because it has a pneumatic starter, it can be stored long term in a cave and just fired up if there's an invasion.

yes, very sus

https://twitter.com/Ukraina8648545/stat ... 48748?s=20

If you are going to bury it in a defensive formation, a workable turret with a 5-inch gun is pretty useful against any infantry or IFV. The Russians could just be bunging anything at the defensive works if they are struggling to get anything through the bottlenecks they have in their supply lines.

[headshot]

That video doesn’t look like CGI. If it is, it’s VERY good.

The giveaways and usually lighting and shadows. It’s absolutely spot on in this. Even the billowing dust is casting a shadow as it should.

I suspect the video is real, even if the context is not.

[Woodchopper]

“The big challenge is the translation of words used in a military or technical context . . . Words no one uses in everyday life,” Bonn said after Ukrainian soldiers took part in a tank shooting exercise at a military base near Klietz in northeastern Germany.

European trainers were full of praise for the “tremendous motivation” of the recruits, despite the stress of the brutal war they are fighting and the daily dangers to friends and family back home. 

But they also said that the age and ability of the soldiers they are sent varies wildly, as Ukrainian commanders on the front line are often unwilling to spare their best men. One volunteer who turned up in Germany was 71 years old.

[...]

A similar problem has reared its head in Denmark, where about eight Ukrainian pilots and dozens of support staff are being trained to fly F-16 fighters at Skrydstrup air base. 

Danish military officials said the training — which became all the more urgent after Copenhagen on Sunday made a joint pledge with the Netherlands to donate their fighter jets to Ukraine — was being held up by security clearance for the pilots. Language skills and health checks were further reasons for the hold-up, officials said.

European commanders say they are in close contact with their Ukrainian counterparts, and seek to respond quickly to feedback and changing demands as Kyiv strives to sustain its stuttering counteroffensive.

Still, Nick Reynolds, a research fellow for land warfare at Rusi, said that it was often difficult for western training to meet the expectations of both sides.

Kyiv is eager for more combined arms training that involves exercises with tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, infantry and drones to more closely replicate conditions that exist on the battlefield, but such exercises can be risky. He said that western nations understandably had low tolerance for accidents but that their approach “doesn’t mesh well with [Kyiv’s] requirements for trainees”.

https://www.ft.com/content/5bcb359e-f0a ... 9c0ebe0a1b

[EACLucifer]

“The big challenge is the translation of words used in a military or technical context . . . ”.

https://www.ft.com/content/5bcb359e-f0a ... 9c0ebe0a1b

One suggestion I've seen is pairing Ukrainian trainers that understand the fight better with NATO trainers. While that was mostly related to the things like the role of drones, and so on, it would also help here.

It is also worth noting that NATO copes just fine across a wide range of languages - given the significant lexical overlap, it would make sense to start by asking what the Polish military calls it.

ETA: The suggestion came from Rob Lee (@RALee85 on Twitter), and actually was in relation to this article.

[Woodchopper]

“The big challenge is the translation of words used in a military or technical context . . . ”.

https://www.ft.com/content/5bcb359e-f0a ... 9c0ebe0a1b

One suggestion I've seen is pairing Ukrainian trainers that understand the fight better with NATO trainers. While that was mostly related to the things like the role of drones, and so on, it would also help here.

It is also worth noting that NATO copes just fine across a wide range of languages - given the significant lexical overlap, it would make sense to start by asking what the Polish military calls it.

ETA: The suggestion came from Rob Lee (@RALee85 on Twitter), and actually was in relation to this article.

Yes, pairing Ukrainian instructors with NATO ones would be a very good idea. Especially as the latter have a lot to learn from the former.

NATO copes, though there are still problems. But member armed forces have been training together for decades. Asking Poles might be a good idea, I don't know enough.

[Allo V Psycho]

https://www.ft.com/content/5bcb359e-f0a ... 9c0ebe0a1b

One suggestion I've seen is pairing Ukrainian trainers that understand the fight better with NATO trainers. While that was mostly related to the things like the role of drones, and so on, it would also help here.

It is also worth noting that NATO copes just fine across a wide range of languages - given the significant lexical overlap, it would make sense to start by asking what the Polish military calls it.

ETA: The suggestion came from Rob Lee (@RALee85 on Twitter), and actually was in relation to this article.

Yes, pairing Ukrainian instructors with NATO ones would be a very good idea. Especially as the latter have a lot to learn from the former.

NATO copes, though there are still problems. But member armed forces have been training together for decades. Asking Poles might be a good idea, I don't know enough.

I've just asked my Polish partner, and she says that while Ukrainian is very similar to Russian, overlap with Polish is more like occasional words - she couldn't understand Ukrainian generally, but might pick up on the sense sometimes if she recognised a few words*. Plus of course the use of Cyrillic script doesn't help with written materials.

*She is very good with languages and speaks and writes better English than I do - she edits my science papers for me!

[dyqik]

Military jargon in English is often a language unto itself, anyway. I wouldn't expect a fluent English as a Foreign Language speaker to get it reliably, even if they were almost completely fluent in a professional field like biology or contract law (engineering and physics probably have some bleed from military -> space/aerospace/civil engineering -> professional in the US, at least). Although there is a whole fiction genre that can probably help.

[EACLucifer]

One suggestion I've seen is pairing Ukrainian trainers that understand the fight better with NATO trainers. While that was mostly related to the things like the role of drones, and so on, it would also help here.

It is also worth noting that NATO copes just fine across a wide range of languages - given the significant lexical overlap, it would make sense to start by asking what the Polish military calls it.

ETA: The suggestion came from Rob Lee (@RALee85 on Twitter), and actually was in relation to this article.

Yes, pairing Ukrainian instructors with NATO ones would be a very good idea. Especially as the latter have a lot to learn from the former.

NATO copes, though there are still problems. But member armed forces have been training together for decades. Asking Poles might be a good idea, I don't know enough.

I've just asked my Polish partner, and she says that while Ukrainian is very similar to Russian, overlap with Polish is more like occasional words - she couldn't understand Ukrainian generally, but might pick up on the sense sometimes if she recognised a few words*. Plus of course the use of Cyrillic script doesn't help with written materials.

I wasn't trying to suggest any sort of mutual intelligibility, just that the lexical overlap might be useful, but also that Poland converted from Warsaw Pact terminology to NATO, and that background might help with Ukraine too.

Cyrillic oughtn't be a massive obstacle, but it's very important to ensure consistency of transcription and acronyms. Is it хімарс or ґімарс, for example? (I believe the former is correct, but don't quote me on that)

[EACLucifer]

Account's now dead. No reason to believe T-10 being readied, anyway, Russia's already using 1940s designed tanks in the form of T-54s. The only accounts I've seen taking this seriously are either gullible and prone to distributing misinformation, or ones that don't really try to assess the military side of things at all picking it up from the gullible ones.

In addition, there are 1940s designed tanks, or at least lineages that start in the 40s, that could actually be quite useful on the battlefield still if suitably upgraded with modern optics and add-on armour - the aforementioned T-54/55s, M-48s and Centurions all still have derivatives kicking about, and Vietnam has actually made quite sensible use of T-34-85s to defend its islands against China - the T-34-85 is obsolete, but could still kick the arse of any IFV, and because it has a pneumatic starter, it can be stored long term in a cave and just fired up if there's an invasion.

yes, very sus

https://twitter.com/Ukraina8648545/stat ... 48748?s=20

If you are going to bury it in a defensive formation, a workable turret with a 5-inch gun is pretty useful against any infantry or IFV. The Russians could just be bunging anything at the defensive works if they are struggling to get anything through the bottlenecks they have in their supply lines.

The problem with the T-10 is that it is very heavily weighed down by armour that isn't much use. The armour's all steel, but there's not enough of it to stop a modern kinetic energy penetrator, and modern High Explosive Anti-Tank Warheads can carve through immense thicknesses of steel, which is why ceramics, reactive armour and complicated combinations like Chobham armour are used on modern tanks.

You've got fifty two tonnes but only seven hundred horsepower to move it along. The Challenger 2 is sometimes criticised as slow at sixty four tonnes with twelve hundred horsepower (A Chally 2 is a dozen kilometres slower than a Leopard 2 or Abrams on road, but equal to them off road due to better suspension. By contrast a T-10 can manage about 25mph on road, which is about what a NATO MBT can achieve off road).

They are also heavy enough to possibly cause bridging and other logistics problems - a T-10 is about 10% heavier than Russia's next heaviest tank, the T-90, and 25% heavier than a T-72.

On top of that, they were pulled from frontline units in the mid 1960s. They will need massive upgrades of optics, sighting, fire control etc if they are to be rendered functional. About the only thing going for them is that they use a standard calibre (they share shells with 122mm gun-howitzers), but that's a calibre there's supposedly been some shortages in, so that isn't always a good thing.

As before, no reason to think they'll reactivate any T-10s, but just giving context on the vehicle for if they do, because we all thought we wouldn't see T-54s either.

[EACLucifer]

Rumours of a major drone attack against a Russian airbase in Kursk, claims of multiple drones getting through with only a few shot down. Supporting evidence exists in form of things like audio, as of writing no confirmation of damage.

Additionally, as with Shahed/Geran type "drones", Ukrainian "Bober" and other one-way systems are best thought of as low-spec cruise missiles rather than uncrewed aircraft, as they aren't intended to or able to land safely once they've taken off, they just fly to their target and aim to hit it and detonate an onboard warhead.

Sadly it appears satellite imagery does not support the idea of significant damage, if at all.

On the other hand, if this was carried out, as a Russian source says it was, with really cheap Australian drones largely made from cardboard, then that's a great way to attrit air defence missile stocks.

[dyqik]

As before, no reason to think they'll reactivate any T-10s, but just giving context on the vehicle for if they do, because we all thought we wouldn't see T-54s either.

There's also been some rumors about the Russians deploying horses to Ukraine, so...

[Martin_B]

As before, no reason to think they'll reactivate any T-10s, but just giving context on the vehicle for if they do, because we all thought we wouldn't see T-54s either.

There's also been some rumors about the Russians deploying horses to Ukraine, so...

Given supply line issues, especially with winter approaching, that's not the worst idea they've had.
Plus, there's a reasonable amount of meat on a horse if it comes down to that.

[Woodchopper]

Rumours of a major drone attack against a Russian airbase in Kursk, claims of multiple drones getting through with only a few shot down. Supporting evidence exists in form of things like audio, as of writing no confirmation of damage.

Additionally, as with Shahed/Geran type "drones", Ukrainian "Bober" and other one-way systems are best thought of as low-spec cruise missiles rather than uncrewed aircraft, as they aren't intended to or able to land safely once they've taken off, they just fly to their target and aim to hit it and detonate an onboard warhead.

Sadly it appears satellite imagery does not support the idea of significant damage, if at all.

Never mind. Lots of burning airframes in Pskov.

[EACLucifer]

Rumours of a major drone attack against a Russian airbase in Kursk, claims of multiple drones getting through with only a few shot down. Supporting evidence exists in form of things like audio, as of writing no confirmation of damage.

Additionally, as with Shahed/Geran type "drones", Ukrainian "Bober" and other one-way systems are best thought of as low-spec cruise missiles rather than uncrewed aircraft, as they aren't intended to or able to land safely once they've taken off, they just fly to their target and aim to hit it and detonate an onboard warhead.

Sadly it appears satellite imagery does not support the idea of significant damage, if at all.

Never mind. Lots of burning airframes in Pskov.

Looks like a massed drone attack targetting lots of locations. Russia's not really had any experience fighting people who can really hit back lately, I don't think they are going to enjoy the experience.

ETA: At least two IL-76 transports at Pskov admitted to, and claims of up to six airframes including a Tu-22M bomber in local media.

[FlammableFlower]

Isn't the Pskov base home to VDV units?

[Woodchopper]

The Ukrainian army breached the main Russian defense “Surovikin line” and is about to reach the village of #Verbove in Zaporizhzhiaj oblast.
Meaning the “dragon teeth” held back Ukrainian soldiers for about 24 hours.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/statu ... 89043?s=20

Notable that this was published by Julian Röpcke who is one of the most pessimistic supporters of Ukraine out there. So it's likely to be happening.

I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that perhaps Russia deployed its defensive units forward and lacks reserves.

Ukraine does though need to protect its flanks.

[EACLucifer]

The Ukrainian army breached the main Russian defense “Surovikin line” and is about to reach the village of #Verbove in Zaporizhzhiaj oblast.
Meaning the “dragon teeth” held back Ukrainian soldiers for about 24 hours.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/statu ... 89043?s=20

Notable that this was published by Julian Röpcke who is one of the most pessimistic supporters of Ukraine out there. So it's likely to be happening.

I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that perhaps Russia deployed its defensive units forward and lacks reserves.

Ukraine does though need to protect its flanks.

There's geolocated footage of Russian artillery firing at Ukrainian troops on the Verbove side of the main line.

Ukraine forced Russia to commit reserves early, and their careful, probing attacks with small infantry groups minimise the effectiveness of things like dragons teeth and anti-vehicle ditches. The question is whether they can get enough of a foothold in Verbove to clear those obstacles out and bring through mechanised units. Verbove is on the middle line of the three-line system in that area, the first line was breached when Robotyne was liberated.

[EACLucifer]

Regarding the Surovikin line at Verbove, and to an extent the fighting south of Urozhaine as well, it comes down to how long Russian reserves can hold out. Not all of the Ukrainian brigades have been committed, but many of them have been. Meanwhile Russia's had to pull the 76th VDV - one of four VDV divisions and one that while once elite has been mauled several times this war and likely now contains mostly mobiks - from the Kreminna area to the Zaporizhzhia front.

Russia committed reserves early and fought in front of much of their fortifications. If they become depleted as a consequence, then those fortifications aren't so useful. That includes local depletions that can be exploited before they can be reinforced.

Dragons Teeth and Anti-Tank Ditches don't offer much resistance to light infantry working on foot, though the accompanying minefields and manned fighting trenches do, in the latter case only if actually manned, and in the former case they are a much nastier obstacle if the trenches are manned. If light infantry can get a toehold in Verbove, or even take the place over a period of time as happened with Robotyne, it gives cover to clear out the anti-vehicle obstacles and bring mechanised forces through. There is an additional line of fortifications still behind this one, but it is not as formiddable as the central line in the Verbove area. Additionally, Tokmak, a likely objective for Ukraine, is fortified to serve as a redoubt.

[EACLucifer]

Shelling in eastern Verbove identified by source as Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions. If true, that's significant Ukrainian progress. Lots of ifs, I'd add, but worth keeping an eye on.