Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

The head of the Security Service, Vasyl Malyuk, told how in October 2022, Ukrainians blew up the Crimean Bridge for the first time. In order to inconspicuously transport 21 tons of hexane to the bridge, the SBU employees wrapped the explosives with packing film. SBU employees specially selected such a thickness of the film that the scanners at the checkpoints would not notice the explosives.

In addition, the Security Service of Ukraine bypassed special Russian jammers on the Crimean bridge that confuse GPS coordinates.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/169279 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

If it was GPS activated then they got lucky with the train. But also possible that they don’t want to reveal how it was detonated.

It's possible they had access to the security cameras on the bridge, or an observer who knew which vehicle to look out for. That said, given they weren't actually driving the truck, whether or not a train was passing while it was on the bridge was always going to be luck.

[dyqik]

Depending on how fast the trains go across the bridge, there could be a significant window to aim for.

US freight trains sometimes take 20 minutes to pass a point (because of low speed because of signals ahead, etc.)

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainian drones struck Soltsy-2 Airbase in Novgorod oblast, home of Tu-22M bombers. Russian sources admit one aircraft damaged, other local Telegram channel claims two. Russians claim multicopter type drone, that would mean launch by local sabotage group if true. Also, quadcopter doesn't carry enough anything to make a smoke plume like this.

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainian drones struck Soltsy-2 Airbase in Novgorod oblast, home of Tu-22M bombers. Russian sources admit one aircraft damaged, other local Telegram channel claims two. Russians claim multicopter type drone, that would mean launch by local sabotage group if true. Also, quadcopter doesn't carry enough anything to make a smoke plume like this.

At least one very toasty Russian strategic bomber.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like the Dutch have pledged 42 F-16s.

ETA: and according to Jimmy Rushton, it's likely the Danes will pledge 30 as well.

Time to be finding new pilots, as well as converting existing ones. We know there's existing F-16 pilots willing to volunteer with ZSU, that might be one source.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like the Dutch have pledged 42 F-16s.

ETA: and according to Jimmy Rushton, it's likely the Danes will pledge 30 as well.

Time to be finding new pilots, as well as converting existing ones. We know there's existing F-16 pilots willing to volunteer with ZSU, that might be one source.

There's some suggestions that 42 is the combined number from both countries. Regardless, it's a massive and meaningful commitment to Ukrainian victory.

[Woodchopper]

Looks like the Dutch have pledged 42 F-16s.

ETA: and according to Jimmy Rushton, it's likely the Danes will pledge 30 as well.

Time to be finding new pilots, as well as converting existing ones. We know there's existing F-16 pilots willing to volunteer with ZSU, that might be one source.

There's some suggestions that 42 is the combined number from both countries. Regardless, it's a massive and meaningful commitment to Ukrainian victory.

Yes, the Netherlands only has 24 and some of them will probably be used for parts. So it looks like a combined total including Denmark as well.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like the Dutch have pledged 42 F-16s.

ETA: and according to Jimmy Rushton, it's likely the Danes will pledge 30 as well.

Time to be finding new pilots, as well as converting existing ones. We know there's existing F-16 pilots willing to volunteer with ZSU, that might be one source.

There's some suggestions that 42 is the combined number from both countries. Regardless, it's a massive and meaningful commitment to Ukrainian victory.

Yes, the Netherlands only has 24 and some of them will probably be used for parts. So it looks like a combined total including Denmark as well.

Reporting's been all over the place, but 42 total is still a superb contribution, and honestly, it would be harder to crew more than that in time anyway.

In addition, parts donors tend to be useful.

[TimW]

Yes, the Netherlands only has 24 and some of them will probably be used for parts. So it looks like a combined total including Denmark as well.

I read somewhere that they have 24 in service (due to retire next year) and 18 others already up for sale. So that might be the "42". TASS quotes the Danish defense ministry announcing donating 19 (6 this year, then 8, then 5), out of "around 30". Just more numbers.

[EACLucifer]

Just a few partly but not entirely connected observations.

Ukraine's probably, barring a successful Russian counterattack, either mostly or entirely liberated Robotyne at this point, based on Russian milbloggers and more importantly on geolocated footage and who is shelling where. Shelling well south of the town is likely Ukrainian shelling of Russian supply lines.

Secondly if this is the case, then Ukrainian forces have breached the first fortified line in the west, and there isn't any real sign of catastrophic casualties despite heavy Russian resistance, suggesting that the change to more cautious tactics was a sensible one.

Thirdly Russia, both here and further east, is trying to fight at the front of, or even out in front of, their fortified lines. That's not a sensible use of them. Defence in depth works only if one is mature enough to accept some retrograde movements.

Fourthly the battle for Staromlynivka allegedly started a couple of days ago, but there's been radio silence since.

[jimbob]

Just a few partly but not entirely connected observations.

Ukraine's probably, barring a successful Russian counterattack, either mostly or entirely liberated Robotyne at this point, based on Russian milbloggers and more importantly on geolocated footage and who is shelling where. Shelling well south of the town is likely Ukrainian shelling of Russian supply lines.

Secondly if this is the case, then Ukrainian forces have breached the first fortified line in the west, and there isn't any real sign of catastrophic casualties despite heavy Russian resistance, suggesting that the change to more cautious tactics was a sensible one.

Thirdly Russia, both here and further east, is trying to fight at the front of, or even out in front of, their fortified lines. That's not a sensible use of them. Defence in depth works only if one is mature enough to accept some retrograde movements.

Fourthly the battle for Staromlynivka allegedly started a couple of days ago, but there's been radio silence since.

Also looks like another Tu-22M has been "damaged" at a different airbase to yesterday.

Air defence intercepted the drone but the debris fell down and damaged a non-functioning aircraft that was being used for parts. (according to Russian sources, so might not be 100% accurate about the lack of damage)

The drone crashed on the territory of the airfield in the Kaluga region.
According to the Base, a kamikaze
drone fell on the territory of the airfield on the morning of August 21.
According to preliminary information, an unused aircraft located at the airfield was damaged as a result of the fall. There were no injuries or other damage to infrastructure.

[EACLucifer]

Also looks like another Tu-22M has been "damaged" at a different airbase to yesterday.

Air defence intercepted the drone but the debris fell down and damaged a non-functioning aircraft that was being used for parts. (according to Russian sources, so might not be 100% accurate about the lack of damage)

Except for the bit about being a parts donor, that's what they claimed for Soltsy-2 Airbase in Novgorod. Also worth noting we've got proof of one Backfire burned at Soltsy-2 - and annoyingly there were clouds on the most recent satellite pass - but there was something burning in the background, albeit less dramatically, in those pictures, and local telegrams said two planes damaged.

[jimbob]

Also looks like another Tu-22M has been "damaged" at a different airbase to yesterday.

Air defence intercepted the drone but the debris fell down and damaged a non-functioning aircraft that was being used for parts. (according to Russian sources, so might not be 100% accurate about the lack of damage)

Except for the bit about being a parts donor, that's what they claimed for Soltsy-2 Airbase in Novgorod. Also worth noting we've got proof of one Backfire burned at Soltsy-2 - and annoyingly there were clouds on the most recent satellite pass - but there was something burning in the background, albeit less dramatically, in those pictures, and local telegrams said two planes damaged.

But this is a brilliant explanation.

The drone crashed on the territory of the airfield in the Kaluga region.
According to the Base, a kamikaze
drone fell on the territory of the airfield on the morning of August 21.
According to preliminary information, an unused aircraft located at the airfield was damaged as a result of the fall. There were no injuries or other damage to infrastructure.

Vranyo is only good for cowed populations, or vatniks who want to believe.

[EACLucifer]

A clue as to how things are going in Robotyne - Abandoned T90M (I can't see tactical marks but it appears to be Russian and one would assume a T90M to be Russian unless proven otherwise) hit by Russian Lancet loitering munition. Most likely explanation is abandoned Russian tank and Russians thought it was at risk of capture. I do note that the Lancet didn't achieve much, which isn't that surprising as T-90Ms are very heavily armoured and some Lancets have been found with demo charges as warheads - hardly optimised for cutting through steel and ceramic.

[EACLucifer]

Also looks like another Tu-22M has been "damaged" at a different airbase to yesterday.

Ukrainian claim is 5 aircraft damaged in a range of attacks, including strategic bombers.

We now have satellite photos of the burned down Backfire at Soltsy-2 in Novgorod, and it seems one, and not two, aircraft was destroyed. Anything else that was damaged wasn't damaged enough to stop it flying, as the Tu-22M3s are all gone, leaving just one blackened Tu-22M3 outline where one was burned down.

And nobody is disagreeing that the modus operandi is saboteurs within Russia armed with small drones. Something nations will need to be aware of, given how available such things are.

[EACLucifer]

There's combat footage of an M2 Bradley providing support (and laying down smoke) for pinned Ukrainian troops that's been geolocated right at the south-eastern corner of Robotyne. Given that this footage is usually released a day or two late at least, I think at the moment it is most likely that Robotyne has been liberated.

Additionally, there is footage out there of Ukrainian civilians being rescued after a year and a half of occupation and evacuated to safer positions. That also suggests a meaningful ZSU presence in the town.

There's two things significant about the apparent liberation of Robotyne - assuming that that is the reality on the ground, of course - the first is that the slow, gradual approach adopted after early failures has carried Ukrainian forces across the first line of the "Surovikin Line", albeit there are still two to go, and the second is that Russia committed significant resources to try and hold Robotyne.

The fighting at the moment is positional and attritional, two things Americans are apparently really bad at understanding. For context, here's a map from GeoConfirmed showing artillery losses lately. The difference is striking. This is because of Ukrainian tactics to attrit Russian artillery, including significant use of GMLRS in the counterbattery role it was originally intended for, as well as guided artillery shells and DPICM rounds. Not only does this weaken Russian artillery directly, it also forces them to hang back out of range as much as they can, increasing the already significant time it takes Russian artillery to respond to developments.



Things are slow right now, but slow is more sensible than reckless. The brigades trained in the west made mistakes early on that betray a lack of experience. Not only is it moral to try and keep them alive, it's also strategically sensible to allow them time to learn and to become as formidable as Ukraine's veteran brigades.

[TopBadger]

That map suggests the Russian artillery is having some success around Kherson... what's going on there I wonder.

That western tactics don't work so well without the full suite of western capabilities (air power, long range precision fires, naval support, logistics, combat engineering) shouldn't be surprising.

[Martin Y]

That map suggests the Russian artillery is having some success around Kherson... what's going on there I wonder.

The Ukrainians crossed the river in a couple of places near where those losses are clustered, and have tried to hold those positions. My guess is that needed a lot of artillery support from the right bank, which in turn exposed that artillery to Russian counter fire.

[Woodchopper]

That map suggests the Russian artillery is having some success around Kherson... what's going on there I wonder.

That western tactics don't work so well without the full suite of western capabilities (air power, long range precision fires, naval support, logistics, combat engineering) shouldn't be surprising.

Yes, at least for the US there is a long tradition of the US armed forces training programmes attempting to re-create themselves rather than giving the recipient what they actually need.

[EACLucifer]

That map suggests the Russian artillery is having some success around Kherson... what's going on there I wonder.

That western tactics don't work so well without the full suite of western capabilities (air power, long range precision fires, naval support, logistics, combat engineering) shouldn't be surprising.

Yes, at least for the US there is a long tradition of the US armed forces training programmes attempting to re-create themselves rather than giving the recipient what they actually need.

This was particularly contemptible in Afghanistan, where they trained the Afghan army to be dependant on air support, pulled that air support from them, then blamed them for not holding out while they cut and ran.

[TopBadger]

This was particularly contemptible in Afghanistan, where they trained the Afghan army to be dependant on air support, pulled that air support from them, then blamed them for not holding out while they cut and ran.

Hmm, not sure I can agree it was contemptible. Dumb, yes, but not despicable. It still staggers me to day that the larger (3x?) and better armed ANA simply melted away in the presence of the Taliban.

But anyway, this thread is for Ukraine. Can't find the link now but some former Russian Colonel was saying Russian morale is so low that entire units might turn around and go home of their own accord. I doubt it but that would be a fantastic result.

[Woodchopper]

But anyway, this thread is for Ukraine. Can't find the link now but some former Russian Colonel was saying Russian morale is so low that entire units might turn around and go home of their own accord. I doubt it but that would be a fantastic result.

They do that they risk getting shot. Either in the back on the front or later when they are identified as being deserters. Their best option might be to surrender to Ukrainian troops.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like a Russian Mi-8 pilot defected to Ukraine and flew his chopper to Poltava.

Additionally, a supposedly very capable S-400 SAM system was hit in Olenivka, western Crimea, and clearly suffered extensive damage.

Russian sources claim drones were used to bait the system, and missiles were fired at it from the sea. Perhaps relatedly Russia claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian boat in the Black Sea, a claim rebutted by the Ukrainian side, who provided footage of a missile missing a boat and the boat returning fire presumably with a MANPADS or similar.

GUR/HUR* continue to be busy.

*H is the usual way of representing Г when transcribing Ukrainian to English, but GUR is very commonly used as well, and not just by the kind of people who only use Russian style transcriptions. Either way, it's the Main Directorate of Intelligence, and is headed up by the notorious Major General Kyrylo Budanov.

[EACLucifer]

Every time you see some anon coward dickhead leaking sh.t-for-brains analysis to journalists in Washington who don't know the difference between a city and an oblast and whining that Ukraine isn't doing it the way they think America would, remember that the 47th brigade tried that and it went badly. Trying blitzkrieg without air superiority is a bad idea, especially as both sides have air superiority behind their frontlines, so a quick dash through the lines puts the attacking formation at the mercy of defending airpower.

Instead Ukraine changed tactics. The 47th learned from that mistake and did not go down in a blaze of glory. They are learning, getting the experience working together they didn't get in training, not least because training was rushed because equipment was pledged too late.

So while it took longer than hoped for, blue and yellow is flying over Robotyne, south of the first line of the Surovikin line.

[jimbob]

Claims that a modified Neptune missile in a ground attack as opposed to ship attack mode was used on an S400 battery in Crimea.

The Neptune has a range of about 360km and if it's accurate enough to destroy a SAM system, it is another thing the Russians have to try mitigating against.

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/16 ... 29583?s=20
.

Artoir
@ItsArtoir
Myroslav Hai reports that the strike on the S-400 battery in Crimea was indeed a ground launched Neptune.

Further states that Luch Design Bureau began work on the project under instructions from Zaluzhnyi in March 2022.

With a link to the Facebook story (in Ukrainian but automatically translated)

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... sn=scwspmo