Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

I hope either he or his rivals think he's crossed the Rubicon, and that the only way out is fighting him, or for he to think that he has to attack leaders of the MOD *physically*. Or end up suffering from windows.

If I were a betting man - I'm not, but if I were - I'd put serious money on his troops not withdrawing in the slightest. I think this is an information op for a domestic audience - he'll stay, claim some concession from the MOD so he can claim he got one over on them regardless of truth, but also get his excuses in early for not fully capturing Bakhmut by May the 9th and shift blame to the MOD.

Oh I'd agree, but the trouble for Prigozhin is that he is still trying to use this to better his position relative to those he considers his rivals. And I hope they decide he's personally dangerous to them, or that he decides they're probably thinking that, so he needs to act.

I'd agree with that, I'd also add that while I think the threat to withdraw is probably bluff, claims of a shell shortage and massive losses seem congruent with other evidence. Prigozhin thought he'd take Bakhmut and thus improve his political position - now he appears desperate and would rather pick fights with the establishment than go down quietly. However it goes, it could get messy, and if there is a breakdown in coordination between MOD and Wagner on the battlefield, it could open a crack in the line for ZSU.

Fascist governments basically always have to have multiple military groups to play off against each other, and it breeds serious inefficiency. The textbook example would be the Nazis, with not just the Heer and the Waffen SS providing meaningful ground formations, but also the Luftwaffe, all with their own procurement, own weapons development projects, logistics etc.

[lpm]

Did the SS ever end up fighting Wehrmacht forces?

I seem to remember something from the final day or two of the war, when the SS wanted to massacre prisoners and some German soldiers fought them. But actual pitched battles between units seems highly unlikely, unfortunately.

[EACLucifer]

Did the SS ever end up fighting Wehrmacht forces?

I seem to remember something from the final day or two of the war, when the SS wanted to massacre prisoners and some German soldiers fought them. But actual pitched battles between units seems highly unlikely, unfortunately.

Other than the example you mention, no in general, but there were cases of things like sabotaging (and IIRC even mining) roads assigned to rival units. In addition to that, there's massive dysfunction caused by poor communications, disjointed procurement and so on. I don't think Wagner group are going to fight the rest of the Russian armed forces in any meaningful way - skirmishes over loot, mistreatment of some units by others, etc have already happened a few times, but their causes, and consequently scope, are local.

What it does reflect, though, is that Russia's military is dysfunctional and not very effective. They threw a lot of troops into a winter offensive. That saw them advance through the small town of Soledar and capture the majority of Bakhmut, though territorial changes were very small overall, as Ukrainian forces actually pushed the Russians back a bit in other places. In so doing, they wasted a lot of personnel and a lot of materiel - they'll need that when Ukraine's fresh brigades are committed.

[FlammableFlower]

Haven't Russia had an overall loss of territory through their winter campaign?

[EACLucifer]

Haven't Russia had an overall loss of territory through their winter campaign?

A lot of it depends on how it is measured, especially what's no man's land and what's controlled by each side. Overall the Russians have advanced in the Bakhmut area very slowly, and Ukraine have slightly improved their positions in some other parts of the front. This is counting the winter campaign as starting after the liberation of Kherson.

That doesn't tell the full story, though. Ukrainians were under orders to hold ground and not make attacks. Russia threw in a lot of personnel and equipment, and most of the fighting was Russia attacking continuously for very limited (Soledar-Bakhmut, north-east of Kupiansk) or no (Vuhledar, Mariinka, Avdiivka, Kreminna-Lyman) gains. Unless they can break out and start surrounding units - which the Russians haven't - it's normal for attackers to take much heavier casualties especially against prepared positions (eg Vuhledar, much of the frontline west of Donetsk) or in urban terrain like Bakhmut, so over the winter Russia will have been the side to suffer much more severe attrition.

[EACLucifer]

Pretty widely reported now that Russia is pulling civilians out of the northern part of occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast. Also comments from Vitaliy Kim, Ukrainian Mykolaiv Oblast governor calling for quite and not to discuss military movements. Ground is firming up in the south and weather is set to be hot for the next week. Does this mean we'll see a Ukrainian offensive? f.ck knows, but it's the first time the conditions have been right for it since last autumn.

Additionally, I am aware of OPSEC issues of reporting on this - I'm mostly not using primary sources right now, and anything I post here is already being discussed all over Telegram, and, most likely, Twitter and Reddit too by the time I post it.

[EACLucifer]

And now the talk from both Prigozhin and Kadyrov is that the Kadyrovtsy will be taking over from Wagner in Bakhmut. So far the Kadyrovtsy are notorious for avoiding actual combat, posting tik-tok footage of them shooting up streetlamps, acting like it's a film etc clearly nowhere near any enemy soldier, stealing from other units, and acting as blocking units placed to shoot those that retreat.

Waiting for them in Bakhmut are the Sheikh Mansour battalion and the Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion - Chechens in Ukrainian service who routinely volunteer for the most dangerous missions. Many are veterans of the Chechen wars. To say they detest Russians and traitors like Kadyrov who sold out to them is putting it very mildly indeed.

ETA: I suspect this sudden caring about casualties on his part from Prigozhin might - please remember the whole issue is exceptionally murky - mean he's running out of convicts after being denied access to the prisons some time ago. He actually wants to keep his regulars intact, I expect, as his African terrorism and looting is more profitable than his involvement in Ukraine, and his regulars, if intact, make him a potential player in any civil conflict.

Additionally, the Russians are launching heavy attacks within Bakhmut, including significant use of incendiary munitions. They want something to call a victory for May the 9th.

[EACLucifer]

As predicted, Prigozhin is now claiming an agreement to supply ammunition has been reached, so won't need to go through with his withdrawal threats. Exactly as expected, one wonders if any ammunition has been re-routed, and who backed down to allow the statement to be made.

[Woodchopper]

As predicted, Prigozhin is now claiming an agreement to supply ammunition has been reached, so won't need to go through with his withdrawal threats. Exactly as expected, one wonders if any ammunition has been re-routed, and who backed down to allow the statement to be made.

Yes, indeed, easy for Shoigu and Gerasimov to say that ammunition is on its way and then do nothing.

[jimbob]

Interesting thread on Prigozhin

https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/statu ... 57447?s=20

Saying that he's basically a figurehead and in a bad position.

Not sure I agree with the idea that Wagner PMC is directly under Kremlin control but a good perspective

[EACLucifer]

Interesting thread on Prigozhin

https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/statu ... 57447?s=20

Saying that he's basically a figurehead and in a bad position.

Not sure I agree with the idea that Wagner PMC is directly under Kremlin control but a good perspective

Wagner have always operated with Kremlin support and permission. In the case of their crimes in Africa, the Kremlin might not know the details of every gold miner murdered or ounce of gold looted, but they know roughly what Wagner are up to, and who they are working with. Additionally, Wagner don't have their own logistics branch, meaning that if they did go up against the Russian MOD, they wouldn't last long as things stand.

[Woodchopper]

The Czech president, Petr Pavel, a decorated retired general who was previously Nato’s principal military adviser, has privately warned Ukraine’s leadership against the disaster of a rushed counteroffensive.

In recent meetings in Kyiv with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, Pavel cautioned that they no longer had the element of surprise that aided successful assaults on the eastern city of Kharkiv and southern region of Kherson last year.

[…]

With preparations still being made, Pavel, who was elected in January, said he had appealed to Shmyhal during meetings last week not to be “pushed into a faster pace before they are fully prepared”.

“Because it might be a temptation to push them, for some, to demonstrate some results,” Pavel said in an interview during a visit to London for King Charles’s coronation. “It will be extremely harmful to Ukraine if this counteroffensive fails, because they will not have another chance, at least not this year.”

[…]

Ukraine would inevitably face “terrible losses” no matter the strength of its forces, he said, and it could not afford for the assault to fail. “Because it’s extremely demanding in terms of putting together personnel equipment, ammunition logistics, fuel financing. It will simply be one chance this year, so it has to be successful.”

[…]

“Volodymyr Zelenskiy is a man who doesn’t have time to go around the problem and I indicated from the very first moment of our meeting that I’m also not a man of diplomatic language,” Pavel said. “So I encouraged him to go straight to the problem, and he said: ‘Well, OK, we need a lot of ammunition.’ And then he gave me a load of equipment that they need to build successfully and obligates for a counteroffensive.

[…]

Pavel said Kyiv should not “underestimate the Russians because they have enough manpower, they still have enough equipment, even though it is older, probably in lower numbers, but still, they have a large amount of artillery barrels, they have a lot of ammunition.”

He added: “They are not so incapable in terms of defence. And of course, being in defence makes it easier for them because Ukraine will have suffered terrible losses, even if they are well prepared. So attacking an enemy like Russia will be difficult and Russians will not be caught by surprise for the second time.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... roffensive

Ukraine had a difficult balancing act regarding expectations. If expectations are too then donations may not be made. But if expectations are too high then real progress may be perceived to be a failure.

[EACLucifer]

The Czech president, Petr Pavel, a decorated retired general who was previously Nato’s principal military adviser, has privately warned Ukraine’s leadership against the disaster of a rushed counteroffensive...

We've been talking about Ukraine constituting new brigades for an offensive since, what, the tail end of last year? Does that look "rushed" to you? Pavel's right, of course, but so far, Zaluzhny is being patient.

Edited to fix the quote

[Woodchopper]

Depends how long it takes to constitute a brigade. The easy bit is giving them equipment. Much harder to get all the elements (eg armour, infantry, artillery, air defence) to coordinate and work together effectively.

I don’t know the answer, but I suspect that Pavel has a better idea than i do,

[EACLucifer]

Depends how long it takes to constitute a brigade. The easy bit is giving them equipment. Much harder to get all the elements (eg armour, infantry, artillery, air defence) to coordinate and work together effectively.

I don’t know the answer, but I suspect that Pavel has a better idea than i do,

They've been training together for some time now. I've been seeing footage of large formations training together since early march at least. Pavel knows what he's talking about, and I sincerely hope he is talking sense into others in NATO, especially in Paris and Washington. Unfortunately, both would probably view him as "eastern european" and dismiss a lot of his concerns. Ultimately, if the USA wanted to guarantee Ukrainian success in a counteroffensive, they would supply the necessary arms. Some require skilled operators, but Ukraine's apparently got a number of pilots willing to volunteer who are already qualified. Others, like ATACMS, require almost nothing that's not already been done.

And evidently this weeks narrative for the journalist herd is "Ukraine's got one chance...ooh, if we doom about this we might get clicks".

[EACLucifer]

In recent meetings in Kyiv with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, Pavel cautioned that they no longer had the element of surprise that aided successful assaults on the eastern city of Kharkiv and southern region of Kherson last year.

If you want to know why I have such a low opinion of journalists just repeating whatever the current trend is with whatever quotes they can drag in to find it relevant, here's a great example.

This journalist evidently does not know the difference between a city and an oblast. Would you assign someone to write about the UK who didn't know the difference between York and Yorkshire? The difference between Denver and Colorado? There was no successful assault on the eastern city of Kharkiv. There was an assault - by the Russians - which failed to capture the city. Then in the main counterattack at the end of march and start of April, the Russians were pushed back somewhat, and suffered a heavy defeat at Trostyanets. A subsequent Ukrainian offensive pushed them back further, before the september offensive the writer is confused about. In the meantime, other parts of the oblast were still occupied, notably Izium and Kupiansk, the latter used as a supply route to the former, which formed the foundation of an attack in the direction of Sloviansk that ultimately stalled. Then, in september, an offensive broke through near Balakliya, raced to Sloviansk and came down behind Izium, routing the Russians. This action was nowhere near the city! It started more than 70km from the city and finished 165km from it, yet this imbecile has called it an "assaults on the eastern city of Kharkiv". These are basic facts anyone following this war could give you from memory, yet this person is getting it wrong. The one thing they did get right was that the element of surprise was important, but it was far from the only factor.

As for Kherson, there was no element of surprise there. The offensive was announced in advance before it even f.cking started. It was used as a ploy to draw troops in, but that meant those fighting in Kherson had no element of surprise.

Everyone knows Ukraine will attack soon as Russia's pathetically ineffective and costly winter offensive is culminating/culminated everywhere other than Bakhmut. Everyone knew that Ukraine would attack late last summer after the Russian offensive culminated after the capture of Lysychansk and their norther pincer was stalled at Bohorodychne. The question is precisely when, and precisely where.

[EACLucifer]

Michael Weiss's reports here on US actions and views seem more congruent with reality than the idea that they are striving for a Ukrainian victory, sadly. In particular of course Jake Sullivan - the f.cking idiot responsible for a lot of Obama era foreign policy - is mentioned. Please also be aware of one of the key points regardubg a lot of the anonymous cowards briefing the press with tit-bits for articles they otherwise wouldn't be able to write due to not knowing the difference between a city and an oblast.

[bjn]

For their victory day parade today the Russians had 1 tank, a single T-34, nothing else. Normally there's dozens of the things. Just a lone tank.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 2723412992

[EACLucifer]

For their victory day parade today the Russians had 1 tank, a single T-34, nothing else. Normally there's dozens of the things. Just a lone tank.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 2723412992

Are the other T-34s in inventory required for the frontline, or were they too embarassed at the idea of having two dozen or so of the things and *nothing* modern? I think I'm joking writing this, but I'd never have expected T-54/T-55s either. An article recently called those Kruschev era but that's not correct, T-54s are Stalin era.

[TopBadger]

Storm Shadow to Ukraine?

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16837

[EACLucifer]

Storm Shadow to Ukraine?

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16837

It's been rumoured for a while. Hopefully it can be managed. The challenge is what to launch them from, as it's an air launched missile and would either need a booster or it would need to be carried by an aircraft. Potentially it could be installed on a two seater like an Su-24 or even a helicopter, which would allow a weapons officer to cope with what could be quite a kludgy interface. Alternatively there's a related French missile that is ship-launched that could be adapted to a truck launcher.

Storm Shadow is capable and combat proven. Russian air defences are struggling with small drones - they'll really struggle with a low radar cross section missile like Storm Shadow. It hits hard, too. The only problem is the carrier aircraft.

Hopefully, providing - or being about to provide - Storm Shadow could twist arms re ATACMS and perhaps other weapons more comparable to Storm Shadow, eg the USA's JASSM.

Russia has put up multiple lines of fortifications to slow down a Ukrainian offensive. Ukraine can achieve local superiority by concentrating their force for an attack, but that only lasts until Russia pulls up reserves. The fortifications won't stop Ukraine outright, not if the attack is well planned, but they will slow the attack down. Their role is to slow the attack to the point Russian reserves can come into play before the Ukrainian attack punches right through into open terrain and starts racing around and cutting Russian lines of communication and supply. While a breakthrough can be achieved by misdirection, so that the reserves are rushed to the wrong place - as happened last year when reserves were sent to Kherson and the breakthrough came at Balakliya - another way to aid a breakthrough would be a serious of sudden strikes against Russian communications. Hitting bridges and other choke points to stall the movement of reserves. Even just cratering railway lines would help - the Russians can repair that sort of damage in a day or so but if that delays the reserves by a day right as Ukrainian forces are cutting into the frontline, it could be critical. Better still of course would be to allow their use on Russian soil and the destruction of key railway bridges like those at Rostov on Don.

Another obvious target would be aviation and naval basing. Though Ukraine's air defences are doing a good job, there is a concern that Russia's air force might be able to intervene against an attack. Particularly their use of glide bombs as a standoff weapon against key bridges etc. Driving them further from the line of contact hinders that, as does wrecking as many airframes as possible. The same goes for the Black Sea Fleet, which has a substantial missile carrying capacity and can also deliver reinforcements to the Azov Sea coast ports. They are dependent on bases at Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, vulnerable to attack while at anchor and also vulnerable if unloading supplies, as we saw with last year's Tochka-U strike at Berdyansk. In addition, the loss of major warships would be a serious blow to Russian morale.

I'm not saying Ukraine can't succeed in some degree of offensive operation without hard hitting long range precision munitions, but they'd help so much that holding them back is f.cking immoral.

[EACLucifer]

Prigozhin's back to ranting again, and - not very obliquely - called Putin something pretty unpleasant. Attacking other top level minions is tolerated to an extent and useful to Putin - Kadyrov and Prigozhin and Shoigu and Gerasimov all attacking each other publically or undermining each other and taking credit for things the others did - but attacking Putin much less so. And of those underlings, only Kadyrov, despite being both an idiot and an embarassing bellend, is indispensible.

The issue is that Prigozhin think's artillery is being held back to undermine him, but honestly given where we see heavy shelling, Bakhmut's been prioritised compared to other sectors. Russia's just short of shells.

[jimbob]

Prigozhin's back to ranting again, and - not very obliquely - called Putin something pretty unpleasant. Attacking other top level minions is tolerated to an extent and useful to Putin - Kadyrov and Prigozhin and Shoigu and Gerasimov all attacking each other publically or undermining each other and taking credit for things the others did - but attacking Putin much less so. And of those underlings, only Kadyrov, despite being both an idiot and an embarassing bellend, is indispensible.

The issue is that Prigozhin think's artillery is being held back to undermine him, but honestly given where we see heavy shelling, Bakhmut's been prioritised compared to other sectors. Russia's just short of shells.

Is Prigozhin deluded, stupid, or a massive gambler?

[Herainestold]

For their victory day parade today the Russians had 1 tank, a single T-34, nothing else. Normally there's dozens of the things. Just a lone tank.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 2723412992

Marshal Zhukov is spinning in his grave.

[EACLucifer]

Prigozhin's back to ranting again, and - not very obliquely - called Putin something pretty unpleasant. Attacking other top level minions is tolerated to an extent and useful to Putin - Kadyrov and Prigozhin and Shoigu and Gerasimov all attacking each other publically or undermining each other and taking credit for things the others did - but attacking Putin much less so. And of those underlings, only Kadyrov, despite being both an idiot and an embarassing bellend, is indispensible.

The issue is that Prigozhin think's artillery is being held back to undermine him, but honestly given where we see heavy shelling, Bakhmut's been prioritised compared to other sectors. Russia's just short of shells.

Is Prigozhin deluded, stupid, or a massive gambler?

Latter, I expect, but there's a fourth option - desperate. He's thrown thousands of lives at Bakhmut. Committed warcrimes against Ukrainians, and murdered many of his own men for failing to do the impossible. If Bakhmut does not fall, and he does not get credit for the capture, then that feeding of people into the meatgrinder is what he'll be known for. Doesn't do much for his prospects in a power struggle, and makes him an ideal scapegoat if Putin needs one.