Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainians reportedly advanced several kilometres in the vicinity of Bakhmut. Not posting supporting footage due to presence of Russians of the second freshness. Reportedly failure to coordinate or even communicate between Wagner Group and the Russian 72nd Brigade was a factor in the poor performance of the Russians on this front.

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainians reportedly advanced several kilometres in the vicinity of Bakhmut. Not posting supporting footage due to presence of Russians of the second freshness. Reportedly failure to coordinate or even communicate between Wagner Group and the Russian 72nd Brigade was a factor in the poor performance of the Russians on this front.

This is still a limited counterattack, and not an offensive as I've seen no evidence of deployment of any units not already in the area. However, the counterattack appears to have been very successful, and caused Russian positions south of Bakhmut and west of the canal to collapse. Those positions now appear to have been cleared, and the frontline in that area is either the canal, or possibly east of the canal with the counterattack continuing.

Counterattacks like this one put a lot of pressure on the Russians. They want to maintain a reserve to contain the Ukrainian offensive when it comes, but will be under pressure to use it now to prevent the loss of too much ground or the flanking of key positions if counterattacks like this continue. Any deployment of reserves in that role leaves less available to stem a Ukrainian offensive, and if instead they move troops along the frontline to prevent things like this counterattack, it creates weakpoints elsewhere.

[EACLucifer]

Per CNN reporting, Storm Shadow has been delivered to Ukraine, who will in turn one assumes deliver them to Russian positions and infrastructure.

ETA: They are quoting the range of the export version, not that that means much as we don't know what version would be sent, and it could even be a mixture or first one then t'other as we got with Brimstone 1 and Brimstone 2. Also claims that agreement in place to only strike occupied territory, so it looks like schwacking the Black Sea Fleet at its Novorossiysk anchorages with one glorious salvo is still out for the moment.

ETA2: Forbes article suggesting that integration with ex-Soviet jets probably quite simple. The Storm Shadow is extremely self-contained and programmed before launch, so that makes sense.

[jimbob]

Per CNN reporting, Storm Shadow has been delivered to Ukraine, who will in turn one assumes deliver them to Russian positions and infrastructure.

ETA: They are quoting the range of the export version, not that that means much as we don't know what version would be sent, and it could even be a mixture or first one then t'other as we got with Brimstone 1 and Brimstone 2. Also claims that agreement in place to only strike occupied territory, so it looks like schwacking the Black Sea Fleet at its Novorossiysk anchorages with one glorious salvo is still out for the moment.

ETA2: Forbes article suggesting that integration with ex-Soviet jets probably quite simple. The Storm Shadow is extremely self-contained and programmed before launch, so that makes sense.

About the only good thing this government has been doing is in pushing the boundaries of Western support for Ukraine, by setting the precedent for new types of Western equipment.

Just as with the Challenger 2 tanks.

[EACLucifer]

Per CNN reporting, Storm Shadow has been delivered to Ukraine, who will in turn one assumes deliver them to Russian positions and infrastructure.

ETA: They are quoting the range of the export version, not that that means much as we don't know what version would be sent, and it could even be a mixture or first one then t'other as we got with Brimstone 1 and Brimstone 2. Also claims that agreement in place to only strike occupied territory, so it looks like schwacking the Black Sea Fleet at its Novorossiysk anchorages with one glorious salvo is still out for the moment.

ETA2: Forbes article suggesting that integration with ex-Soviet jets probably quite simple. The Storm Shadow is extremely self-contained and programmed before launch, so that makes sense.

About the only good thing this government has been doing is in pushing the boundaries of Western support for Ukraine, by setting the precedent for new types of Western equipment.

Just as with the Challenger 2 tanks.

Indeed, and likewise comments along the lines of "if you've been saving things for a rainy day, that's now" compare very favourably with "no! we must hoard our borderline-obscolescent and about to be replaced short-range ballistics and sell some of them to Morocco..."

[jimbob]

The shadow defence secretary response is good.

[EACLucifer]

Lot of Russian panic today, but it could easily be - and a lot of the more sensible OSINT types are saying it is - b.llsh.t manoeuvrings by Prigozhin.

Yes, counterattack south of Bakhmut. There is footage. That concerns an area west of the canal west of Klischiivka, not actually in Bakhmut. Possibility that Russians might have been pushed back one block near the medical school, but hard to say. That's all we've evidence for. I think the attack west of Klishiivka is meaningful because it happened at all, but it is a small, limited counterattack, and should be kept in proportion.

[EACLucifer]

Enough panic now that I'm beginning to wonder. Perhaps it's just hope on my part. We'll see.

[bjn]

Interesting article on first person view drones being used to deliver ordinance. These are generally used for competitive racing, and are smaller and cheaper than drones such as a Mavic, but have more power full motors. They can reach speeds of 120 mph and countermeasures are difficult. Estimates in the mid hundreds of dollars for parts, including a war head. Strap an RPG or a fragmentation grenade and you have a cheap suicide precision weapon. Speculation that the Ukrainians have stock piled many tens of thousands of the things for the up coming counter offensive and have thousands of trained operators to use them. It could be significant. Spotter drones up high observing the battle field directing suicide FPV drones to target the most appropriate troop formation or armoured vehicle in support of your own troops and armour. A new tool for combined arms operations. Limitation is how many drones you can operate in an area due to limited number of communication channels, but just keep launching them in waves. Jamming is possible, but the Russians don’t have enough kit to do that and their ECW stuff isn’t designed for this anyway.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... s-shotguns

[EACLucifer]

Interesting article on first person view drones being used to deliver ordinance. These are generally used for competitive racing, and are smaller and cheaper than drones such as a Mavic, but have more power full motors. They can reach speeds of 120 mph and countermeasures are difficult. Estimates in the mid hundreds of dollars for parts, including a war head. Strap an RPG or a fragmentation grenade and you have a cheap suicide precision weapon. Speculation that the Ukrainians have stock piled many tens of thousands of the things for the up coming counter offensive and have thousands of trained operators to use them. It could be significant. Spotter drones up high observing the battle field directing suicide FPV drones to target the most appropriate troop formation or armoured vehicle in support of your own troops and armour. A new tool for combined arms operations. Limitation is how many drones you can operate in an area due to limited number of communication channels, but just keep launching them in waves. Jamming is possible, but the Russians don’t have enough kit to do that and their ECW stuff isn’t designed for this anyway.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... s-shotguns

Yeah these things are nasty and effective. There's been a lot of footage of them lately, the telltales being blurriness like a badly tuned analogue television, a curved horizon caused by the awkward lens shape, and the fact that they fly into Russian stuff at high speed. This has included footage of them flying in through windows and on one occasion into the back of a moving MT-LB armoured personnel carrier. Think a budget version of a Switchblade drone that can be deployed en masse.

[EACLucifer]

Starting to get a trickle of abandoned or captured Russian positions appearing on Telegram and increasingly on Twitter, too. I don't think this is the big push, but if a short sharp tap from existing deployed units can crack Russian positions south and possibly also north of Bakhmut, it's going to put the Russians in one hell of a bind.

[dyqik]

Starting to get a trickle of abandoned or captured Russian positions appearing on Telegram and increasingly on Twitter, too. I don't think this is the big push, but if a short sharp tap from existing deployed units can crack Russian positions south and possibly also north of Bakhmut, it's going to put the Russians in one hell of a bind.

And it's probably effective at probing for where reinforcements can be deployed, and where the Russians think they should be deployed. Even if they aren't thrown in, they may start moving around in a visible way.

[EACLucifer]

Russian MOD talking about troops redeploying to more advantageous defensive positions along the Berkhivka reservoir. Firstly, that's a retreat of several kilometres from their previous positions and secondly this is an area they were attacking in until very recently. So that's north of Bakhmut they've been pushed back as well as south of it. Additionally, the road of life through Khromove is now much safer.

Do the Russians reinforce? If they don't, how far can the flanks be rolled back? Could the city even be enveloped?

[EACLucifer]

Starting to get a trickle of abandoned or captured Russian positions appearing on Telegram and increasingly on Twitter, too. I don't think this is the big push, but if a short sharp tap from existing deployed units can crack Russian positions south and possibly also north of Bakhmut, it's going to put the Russians in one hell of a bind.

And it's probably effective at probing for where reinforcements can be deployed, and where the Russians think they should be deployed. Even if they aren't thrown in, they may start moving around in a visible way.

Yes, and it looks like Ukraine has a better idea of what Russia is doing behind their lines than vice versa. Indeed OSINT/milblogger types are much better at placing Russian units behind their lines than on the Ukrainian side of things.

It is also significant in its own right that Ukraine appear to have the initiative at least on Bakhmut's flanks even without committing new troops.

[TopBadger]

We might guess they're going after Bakhmut to embarrass the Russians into reinforcing it, thereby weakening areas the Ukrainians actually want to make progress.

But as ever... attack where the enemy is weakest. Maybe with all the complaints Wagner are making about supplies Ukraine figure it was simply an opportune time to push there.

So it could be strategic. or could simply be tactical. We, and more important the Russians, just don't know.

[Grumble]

We might guess they're going after Bakhmut to embarrass the Russians into reinforcing it, thereby weakening areas the Ukrainians actually want to make progress.

But as ever... attack where the enemy is weakest. Maybe with all the complaints Wagner are making about supplies Ukraine figure it was simply an opportune time to push there.

So it could be strategic. or could simply be tactical. We, and more important the Russians, just don't know.

But some of the commentary around Prighozin’s whinging has been along the lines of, for all his complaining about lack of ammunition he’s actually been favoured. Which then begs the question, where are they strong?

[EACLucifer]

We might guess they're going after Bakhmut to embarrass the Russians into reinforcing it, thereby weakening areas the Ukrainians actually want to make progress.

But as ever... attack where the enemy is weakest. Maybe with all the complaints Wagner are making about supplies Ukraine figure it was simply an opportune time to push there.

So it could be strategic. or could simply be tactical. We, and more important the Russians, just don't know.

But some of the commentary around Prighozin’s whinging has been along the lines of, for all his complaining about lack of ammunition he’s actually been favoured. Which then begs the question, where are they strong?

They are only strong when they have an artillery advantage. There's footage out there now showing Russians fleeing from positions in the vicinity of Berkhivka, north of Bakhmut. I'm not sure at this point if they are fleeing to Berkhivka - 3km or so from their previous frontline - or from it.

[EACLucifer]

We might guess they're going after Bakhmut to embarrass the Russians into reinforcing it, thereby weakening areas the Ukrainians actually want to make progress.

But as ever... attack where the enemy is weakest. Maybe with all the complaints Wagner are making about supplies Ukraine figure it was simply an opportune time to push there.

So it could be strategic. or could simply be tactical. We, and more important the Russians, just don't know.

But some of the commentary around Prighozin’s whinging has been along the lines of, for all his complaining about lack of ammunition he’s actually been favoured. Which then begs the question, where are they strong?

They are only strong when they have an artillery advantage. There's footage out there now showing Russians fleeing from positions in the vicinity of Berkhivka, north of Bakhmut. I'm not sure at this point if they are fleeing to Berkhivka - 3km or so from their previous frontline - or from it.

So far it looks like fleeing to it. Ukrainian troops have cleared them from south of the reservoir. There's a ridge just north of the reservoir, if that can be taken it would give command of the surrounding area and probably force Russian troops to the northwest of that area to retreat to avoid encirclement.

ETA: Oh, the Russians are also claiming that Luhansk - a major logistics hub for them - was hit by cruise missiles.

[Imrael]

ETA: Oh, the Russians are also claiming that Luhansk - a major logistics hub for them - was hit by cruise missiles.

Bit soon for Storm shadow?

[EACLucifer]

ETA: Oh, the Russians are also claiming that Luhansk - a major logistics hub for them - was hit by cruise missiles.

Bit soon for Storm shadow?

Well whatever it was hits damn hard.

If footage of the actual impact/incoming missile emerges it could shed more light. Two strikes, both apparently very accurate taking out an oil depot and factory building deep into occupied territory, and while it can be hard to tell how hard an oil depot was hit, unless there were explosives stored in that building, it got hit hard. Could be a number of things, but it may be that the Storm Shadow announcement was held back until it was ready for use.

[Grumble]

I reckon they’ve been shipped a while now, based on nothing much

[EACLucifer]

Reportedly a very interesting decoy was found in central Luhansk.

Creates lots of options both for SEAD and for use as a Pen-Aid for other munitions.

[EACLucifer]

Reportedly a very interesting decoy was found in central Luhansk.

Creates lots of options both for SEAD and for use as a Pen-Aid for other munitions.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that whatever was targeted in Luhansk today was probably a very high value target - whether the strike had the desired effect and what that target was remains to be seen.

[Grumble]

I reckon they’ve been shipped a while now, based on nothing much

As much as anything I’m basing this on the fact that the news was on made official after journalists basically had confirmation that they were being shipped. I’d like to think that they didn’t get this the moment they were put into a packing crate, hopefully sometime later than they were unpacked at the other end.

[jimbob]

On Internationalskeptics.com one poster has been comparing Bakhmut to Stalingrad. I wasn't thinking it was a useful comparison, but I'm starting to see some parallels.