Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:01 pm

For military/technical discussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, per mod suggestion they be in a separate thread to the political/humanitarian ones.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:08 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:01 pm
For military/technical discussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, per mod suggestion they be in a separate thread to the political/humanitarian ones.
Seems sensible.

It’s not a subject which particularly interests me (although I am interested in every subject in the universe at least a tiny bit) but I think it’s helpful to discuss this stuff. I have seen no evidence that people who discuss it are deranged psychopaths.

One question I have is about those mines that look like toys. Is that intentional or coincidental? Or is “coincidental “ an excuse to cover intention?
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:36 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:08 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:01 pm
For military/technical discussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, per mod suggestion they be in a separate thread to the political/humanitarian ones.
Seems sensible.

It’s not a subject which particularly interests me (although I am interested in every subject in the universe at least a tiny bit) but I think it’s helpful to discuss this stuff. I have seen no evidence that people who discuss it are deranged psychopaths.

One question I have is about those mines that look like toys. Is that intentional or coincidental? Or is “coincidental “ an excuse to cover intention?
Probably coincidental, but air/rocket deployed landmines take everything that's wrong with landmines and worsen it. They look like this.

Image

Training version pictured, but the only difference between it and the live version is the live version doesn't have a letter stamped into it.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:38 pm

One important thing to note about this war, especially when it comes to footage reaching western eyes, is that it is a lot more symmetrical and a lot more conventional than people think. Yes, there are light infantry going to hunt tanks with a plethora of shoulder-launched weapons. There's also things like this, which are much less documented - Ukrainian tanks and mechanised infantry firing and manoeuvring as they advance

(Clip contains footage of a tank firing, but no casualties or anything like that)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by basementer » Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:15 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:38 pm
One important thing to note about this war, especially when it comes to footage reaching western eyes, is that it is a lot more symmetrical and a lot more conventional than people think. Yes, there are light infantry going to hunt tanks with a plethora of shoulder-launched weapons. There's also things like this, which are much less documented - Ukrainian tanks and mechanised infantry firing and manoeuvring as they advance

(Clip contains footage of a tank firing, but no casualties or anything like that)
Clip has a musical soundtrack. War as entertainment.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:31 pm

basementer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:15 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:38 pm
One important thing to note about this war, especially when it comes to footage reaching western eyes, is that it is a lot more symmetrical and a lot more conventional than people think. Yes, there are light infantry going to hunt tanks with a plethora of shoulder-launched weapons. There's also things like this, which are much less documented - Ukrainian tanks and mechanised infantry firing and manoeuvring as they advance

(Clip contains footage of a tank firing, but no casualties or anything like that)
Clip has a musical soundtrack. War as entertainment.
I must admit I’ve found the addition of music to some of these clips very distasteful and have often not shared them on that basis but sometimes it’s unavoidable if you want to point out a particular thing.
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Apr 07, 2022 5:44 am

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:31 pm
basementer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:15 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:38 pm
One important thing to note about this war, especially when it comes to footage reaching western eyes, is that it is a lot more symmetrical and a lot more conventional than people think. Yes, there are light infantry going to hunt tanks with a plethora of shoulder-launched weapons. There's also things like this, which are much less documented - Ukrainian tanks and mechanised infantry firing and manoeuvring as they advance

(Clip contains footage of a tank firing, but no casualties or anything like that)
Clip has a musical soundtrack. War as entertainment.
I must admit I’ve found the addition of music to some of these clips very distasteful and have often not shared them on that basis but sometimes it’s unavoidable if you want to point out a particular thing.
Indeed. The other clip I had available to demonstrate the fact that many were getting a skewed impression of the nature of the conflict didn't have music, but it did have Russian vehicles being destroyed when a camouflaged Ukrainian tank ambushed a column retreating out of norther Ukraine, and I reasoned that a clip with music, while perhaps distasteful, was going to bother people less than a clip with casualties occuring.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:30 pm

Amazingly, Mariupol's defenders are still fighting, even still operating vehicles. Apparently recent footage from the outskirts shows a Ukrainian BTR-4 attacking two tanks* from behind with its autocannon and setting both on fire, meaning both were quite badly damaged, potentially destroyed.

Given the current Russian aims - the encirclement of forces around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, both quite sizeable cities - it's worth remembering that even if they manage that, the fight is far from over. Mariupol's been surrounded for many weeks and can still muster an effective defence, despite the horrific bombardment from artillery and aircraft, which now includes unguided bombs dropped by Russia's strategic bombers.

As the focus shifts to the east, Ukraine is urging civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and parts of Kharkiv oblast to evacuate. Given the Russian warcrimes around Mariupol, it is an essential move, but one which puts yet more strain on Ukraine, part of Russia's deliberate policy of creating humanitarian crises.



*Just about possible they were self-propelled guns, footage isn't great, and I think they are tanks.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:46 am

The Ukrainians have claimed that they have been flying helicopters in and out of Mariupol. If that’s true it’s another major failure by Russia. Though it could be Ukrainian trolling (perhaps designed to get Russia to move air defence units there).

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:51 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:46 am
The Ukrainians have claimed that they have been flying helicopters in and out of Mariupol. If that’s true it’s another major failure by Russia. Though it could be Ukrainian trolling (perhaps designed to get Russia to move air defence units there).
Evidence came out about a week back of a transport helicopter shootdown in that area, so it certainly appears to be the case, and sadly not all such flights got through unscathed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:33 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:33 am

Nato member states have agreed to supply new types of advanced weaponry to Ukraine, alliance representatives said, as Kyiv prepares for an offensive by Russia in the country’s east.

[…]

Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary, told reporters after the meeting that member states had backed giving more weapons.

“There was support for countries to supply new and heavier equipment to Ukraine, so that they can respond to these new threats from Russia,” she said. “And we agreed to help Ukrainian forces move from their Soviet-era equipment to Nato standard equipment, on a bilateral basis.”

Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said Washington was looking at sending “new systems” to Ukraine.

“We are not going to let anything stand in the way of getting Ukrainians what they need,” he said. “We are looking across the board right now, not only at what we have provided . . . [but] whether there are additional systems that would make a difference.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1c0e6e15-c8f ... b6836bf0f4

Moving Ukraine to NATO standard equipment is a good ambition, though it’ll take years.
For now, this war will be fought with a mix of NATO and Warsaw Pact equipment standards, and though that's awkward, it's by no means as impossible to combine the two in one army as some people seem to think.

Opinion does seem to be finally moving towards supplying proper arms to Ukraine at last - likely because Ukraine have showed they are capable of winning battles - and old Warsaw Pact type equipment is neither advanced enough or available in sufficient supply to get the job done on its own.

Slovakia is apparently mulling the transfer of ZUZANA 155mm self-propelled gun-howitzers. Though not compatible with the existing 152mm equipment in Ukraine, and thus in need of its own ammunition supply, it does have advantages. It outranges the 152mm stuff in use on both sides, with only the 203mm guns and some of the rockets outranging it, and its designed for all standard NATO ammunition - that includes guided rounds. Ukraine had a guided 152mm round in production, but they report the loss of effectively all their defence industry. It's probably easier to supply 155mm guns and ammunition than to adapt 155mm designs to 152mm.

The UK is also now talking about sending Mastiffs and Jackals, armoured patrol and recon vehicles rushed into service to replace the Snatch Land Rovers due to the latter's vulnerability to mines. This ought to have been done a while ago - the Mastiffs and Jackals are surplus to requirements here.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Fri Apr 08, 2022 9:00 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:51 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:46 am
The Ukrainians have claimed that they have been flying helicopters in and out of Mariupol. If that’s true it’s another major failure by Russia. Though it could be Ukrainian trolling (perhaps designed to get Russia to move air defence units there).
Evidence came out about a week back of a transport helicopter shootdown in that area, so it certainly appears to be the case, and sadly not all such flights got through unscathed.
From what I'd heard the Ukrainians had been running nightly supply/rescue flights at night for weeks without the Russians cottoning on.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 08, 2022 9:35 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:33 am

Opinion does seem to be finally moving towards supplying proper arms to Ukraine at last - likely because Ukraine have showed they are capable of winning battles - and old Warsaw Pact type equipment is neither advanced enough or available in sufficient supply to get the job done on its own.
I suspect that its also due to time horizons having shifted. Back in late February and March the emphasis was on sending material that could be used within days to defend Kyiv. Now there is time to consider Ukraine's long term needs.
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:33 am
The UK is also now talking about sending Mastiffs and Jackals, armoured patrol and recon vehicles rushed into service to replace the Snatch Land Rovers due to the latter's vulnerability to mines. This ought to have been done a while ago - the Mastiffs and Jackals are surplus to requirements here.
Yes, they'll be useful.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Apr 08, 2022 11:18 am

Slovakia apparently has now sent at least one S300 SAM system. Ukraine's air defence has been amazing so far; Russian planes currently daren't fly over western Ukraine, and that means they are forced to rely on ballistic and cruise missiles to attack those area, which in turn means things like shipments of military aid are basically impossible for them to hit, as they have no capabilities against moving targets in the west of the country. Hopefully, between the numerous MANPADS and much more capable systems like the S300, that can be extended eastwards to limit Russia's ability to target frontline units and bomb cities like Mariupol.

ETA: This was something where Lavrov was very upset about the potential for it happening and claimed Russia wouldn't allow it...and yet.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:01 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 11:18 am
Slovakia apparently has now sent at least one S300 SAM system. Ukraine's air defence has been amazing so far; Russian planes currently daren't fly over western Ukraine, and that means they are forced to rely on ballistic and cruise missiles to attack those area, which in turn means things like shipments of military aid are basically impossible for them to hit, as they have no capabilities against moving targets in the west of the country. Hopefully, between the numerous MANPADS and much more capable systems like the S300, that can be extended eastwards to limit Russia's ability to target frontline units and bomb cities like Mariupol.

ETA: This was something where Lavrov was very upset about the potential for it happening and claimed Russia wouldn't allow it...and yet.
More than "apparently" - both Slovakia and Ukraine have confirmed it.

it looks that the US is sending the 40km-range (90km with the drones also supplied) Switchblade-600
as well as the shorter ones


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Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:22 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:01 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 11:18 am
Slovakia apparently has now sent at least one S300 SAM system. Ukraine's air defence has been amazing so far; Russian planes currently daren't fly over western Ukraine, and that means they are forced to rely on ballistic and cruise missiles to attack those area, which in turn means things like shipments of military aid are basically impossible for them to hit, as they have no capabilities against moving targets in the west of the country. Hopefully, between the numerous MANPADS and much more capable systems like the S300, that can be extended eastwards to limit Russia's ability to target frontline units and bomb cities like Mariupol.

ETA: This was something where Lavrov was very upset about the potential for it happening and claimed Russia wouldn't allow it...and yet.
More than "apparently" - both Slovakia and Ukraine have confirmed it.

it looks that the US is sending the 40km-range (90km with the drones also supplied) Switchblade-600
as well as the shorter ones


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... raine-war/
I’m sure we’ll be hearing about more Russian generals getting knocked off soon.
A bit churlish

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:13 pm

Wowzers... I expect the US military is highly interested in seeing how effective they are. Proxy wars are a great testing ground.

Russian commanders and soldiers are in for an especially dangerous time... with advanced weaponry coming their way their choices are being narrowed to defect, desert or die.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Millennie Al » Sat Apr 09, 2022 3:54 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:13 pm
Wowzers... I expect the US military is highly interested in seeing how effective they are.
I expect arms manufacturers are vigorously lobbying to get their products supplied to Ukraine. They know that demonstrating usefulness in Ukraine will generate sales for decades to come. I suspect that this, rather than statesmanship, is behind Boris Johnson's enthusiasm for Britain providing weapons to Ukraine. Considering his record, it would be surprising if he was getting this right for the right reasons.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:57 pm

UK to send 120 armoured vehicles and "new anti-ship missiles". I suspect those 120 armoured vehicles are probably the armoured patrol/reconnaissance vehicles already announced, surplus to requirements Jackals and Mastiffs, which ought to be useful.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:04 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:57 pm
UK to send 120 armoured vehicles and "new anti-ship missiles". I suspect those 120 armoured vehicles are probably the armoured patrol/reconnaissance vehicles already announced, surplus to requirements Jackals and Mastiffs, which ought to be useful.
Are these anti-ship missiles launched from land or air?
A bit churlish

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:12 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:04 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:57 pm
UK to send 120 armoured vehicles and "new anti-ship missiles". I suspect those 120 armoured vehicles are probably the armoured patrol/reconnaissance vehicles already announced, surplus to requirements Jackals and Mastiffs, which ought to be useful.
Are these anti-ship missiles launched from land or air?
I don't know. The UK isn't terribly well off for anti-ship missiles. British Harpoons are basically past their expiry date, and the government decided to can an interim replacement, meaning the capability won't be replaced for a decade or so - presumably we can politely ask people not to hassle us with ships in the meantime.

There's also Sea Spear, which is as Brimstone derivative, but that's more of an anti-boat missile than an anti-ship missile. Sea Spear would be extremely offensive against a Russian style amphibious landing with amphibious APCs, but it's not going to do much about ships like Moskva bombarding Ukraine from the Black Sea in the way that Harpoons or Exocets would.

ETA: Some people are saying it is Harpoon, but that will take quite a lot of jerry rigging to come up with a functional land-based launcher.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Apr 10, 2022 8:08 am

Thread from the Institute for the Study of War suggesting that the US is inadvertently overestimating Russian combat strength when they say they have 80-85% of their force available to them.

The short version is basically that units that have been mauled and forced out of Ukraine are not going to be able to fight at anything like their potential. While mashing together the ruins of several Battalion Tactical Groups together might give you the paper-strength of a Battalion Tactical Group, it does not give a cohesive formation that can fight effectively, or has the will to fight.

Russia entered this war without an adequate plan to mobilise sufficient troops, almost certainly because they underestimate the strength and determination of Ukraine's resistance. That's locked in for now - they cannot fix it in the short term. Calling up reservists and new conscripts won't yield fighting troops for months.

I've done some of the maths myself - Russia built up a force of twelve hundred tanks for the invasion. Verified losses are past four hundred and fifty. Allowing for the backlog in the verification process and the inevitable undercount of visually-verified confirmation, Russia's lost at least 40% of its initial tank force, which equates to =>17% of their overall tank fleet, with their IFV losses commensurate to their tank losses. Russian casualties are also very high. They invaded with fewer than two hundred thousand troops, with the use of conscripts from the occupied territories/militias bringing it up to about two hundred thousand. It would be very surprising at this point if they had fewer than ten thousand killed, and Ukraine's claims being nearly twice that. All the evidence I've seen suggests that Ukraine's claims are accurate in terms of Russian deaths. For every death, one expects several wounded. Even if Russian first aid and treatment of its wounded is as dreadful as evidence suggests, there would still be two or three men wounded for every man killed. That puts Russia's losses in troop strength at somewhere between fifteen thousand and over fifty thousand, with desertion and capture also an issue.

I hope I'm not being too optimistic here, but Russia's ability to win in the east is questionable.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Allo V Psycho » Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:19 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:12 pm
Grumble wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:04 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:57 pm
UK to send 120 armoured vehicles and "new anti-ship missiles". I suspect those 120 armoured vehicles are probably the armoured patrol/reconnaissance vehicles already announced, surplus to requirements Jackals and Mastiffs, which ought to be useful.
Are these anti-ship missiles launched from land or air?
I don't know. The UK isn't terribly well off for anti-ship missiles. British Harpoons are basically past their expiry date, and the government decided to can an interim replacement, meaning the capability won't be replaced for a decade or so - presumably we can politely ask people not to hassle us with ships in the meantime.

There's also Sea Spear, which is as Brimstone derivative, but that's more of an anti-boat missile than an anti-ship missile. Sea Spear would be extremely offensive against a Russian style amphibious landing with amphibious APCs, but it's not going to do much about ships like Moskva bombarding Ukraine from the Black Sea in the way that Harpoons or Exocets would.

ETA: Some people are saying it is Harpoon, but that will take quite a lot of jerry rigging to come up with a functional land-based launcher.
The Argentinians removed an Exocet missile launcher from a damaged warship during the the Falklands war, flew it to the Falklands and (after two failed launches) hit HMS Glamorgan. So not impossible.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:36 am

🧵Looking at the images released by @Maxar of the convoy and it being 13km long, I estimate it to consist of ≈ 400 Russian vehicles.

This image is 49.997077, 37.397610 and length photographed is ≈500m. There are 16 vehicles total (10 trucks, 6 armored vehicles). 1/ https://t.co/ri7bd1S6mN
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 4881289216

It's totally mad that I know the exact location of a Russian convoy, where it's heading and its composition.

It's like a random person in Berlin knowing in April 1943 where every ship in an Atlantic convoy is.

Plus U-Boats are cheap and easy, the Atlantic convoy is potentially in artillery range and the Allied Navy is incompetent.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Pishwish » Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:08 am

Some of the Russian recon drones are quite basic. (The Ukranian is mocking the tech, but it is sort of impressive how cheap components can be used to build a useful UAV). I expect that the communications and thermal imaging would be the most expensive bits.

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