Blyatskrieg

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jimbob
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 10, 2022 1:44 pm

interesting thread

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/statu ... Obmk0PGN3Q
david D.
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here is what im seeing.
this is basic math and open source reporting so im keeping opsec.
UKR army has built at least 3 battle groups. each about the size of a US division (3-4 brigades with attached elements working together).
4:19 AM · Sep 10, 2022
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the point being that by numbers of vehicle types seen, it looks as though Ukraine has another battlegroup for another (probably highly-mobile) offensive somewhere else
if you are battletracker (i am) you count vehicles by TO&E (donated, sold vehicles) and look for them in combat as BDA. sofar many of some types of vehicles donated HAVE NOT shown up on the battlefield, yet.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Sat Sep 10, 2022 1:50 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:25 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:02 pm
It's annoying Google maps doesn't have railways clearly shown.
Image

Two things are immediately clear; the first is the significance of Kupyansk, the second is how difficult it will be to cut off Russian rail access to the southeastern side of the Donbas.
Possibly a reasonable prompt for them to start thinking about converting their railway to standard gauge. Admittedly, not amongst the upper end of priorities in terms of infrastructure fixes, but still.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 10, 2022 1:53 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 1:50 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:25 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:02 pm
It's annoying Google maps doesn't have railways clearly shown.
Image

Two things are immediately clear; the first is the significance of Kupyansk, the second is how difficult it will be to cut off Russian rail access to the southeastern side of the Donbas.
Possibly a reasonable prompt for them to start thinking about converting their railway to standard gauge. Admittedly, not amongst the upper end of priorities in terms of infrastructure fixes, but still.
I believe there's talk of getting a dual gauge line in pretty quickly to better allow grain exports. Standard gauge for the rest of the system probably will come in time, but after the war.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:20 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 1:50 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:25 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:02 pm
It's annoying Google maps doesn't have railways clearly shown.
Image

Two things are immediately clear; the first is the significance of Kupyansk, the second is how difficult it will be to cut off Russian rail access to the southeastern side of the Donbas.
Possibly a reasonable prompt for them to start thinking about converting their railway to standard gauge. Admittedly, not amongst the upper end of priorities in terms of infrastructure fixes, but still.
It would also mess up integration with Russian train logistics in future, I guess?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:29 pm

...yes, but it would encourage integration with European train logistics. There are obviously a whole host of messages going on regarding Ukraine's position relative to the EU and Russia, and the railway is hardly an especially important one, but switching to the gauge used throughout most of the rest of Europe would be a fairly big message.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:42 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:29 pm
...yes, but it would encourage integration with European train logistics. There are obviously a whole host of messages going on regarding Ukraine's position relative to the EU and Russia, and the railway is hardly an especially important one, but switching to the gauge used throughout most of the rest of Europe would be a fairly big message.
The discouraging of integration with Russian train logistics was a positive.

It would force a subsequent Russian invasion have to use different rolling stock.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:44 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:42 am
If the Russian army left Svatovo as this guy says on camera - and Svatovo is about 60 km from the nearest town taken over by Ukraine - this would be the first case of retreat long before even attempting to defend a long-held position. Something bigger must be brewing inside if so
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... zxKxGfndNg

If this is correct then we’re probably looking at a large scale withdrawal as we saw in the north of Ukraine a few months ago. They’d withdraw to more defensible positions and try to avoid encirclement and capture.

To bad for all the Russians who died taking land that they are now running from.
Russian Defence Ministry comes out with first statement on the retreat, saying that they are “regrouping troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions” to step up its efforts in the Donetsk direction.
https://twitter.com/pjotrsauer/status/1 ... zxKxGfndNg

If they are focusing on defending Donetsk they are going to lose a lot.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:45 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:44 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:42 am
If the Russian army left Svatovo as this guy says on camera - and Svatovo is about 60 km from the nearest town taken over by Ukraine - this would be the first case of retreat long before even attempting to defend a long-held position. Something bigger must be brewing inside if so
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... zxKxGfndNg

If this is correct then we’re probably looking at a large scale withdrawal as we saw in the north of Ukraine a few months ago. They’d withdraw to more defensible positions and try to avoid encirclement and capture.

To bad for all the Russians who died taking land that they are now running from.
They may be trying to spin it as a strategic movement of troops to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast which - yeah...that's not happening.
Russian Defence Ministry comes out with first statement on the retreat, saying that they are “regrouping troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions” to step up its efforts in the Donetsk direction.
https://twitter.com/pjotrsauer/status/1 ... zxKxGfndNg

If they are focusing on defending Donetsk they are going to lose a lot.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:51 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:44 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:42 am
If the Russian army left Svatovo as this guy says on camera - and Svatovo is about 60 km from the nearest town taken over by Ukraine - this would be the first case of retreat long before even attempting to defend a long-held position. Something bigger must be brewing inside if so
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... zxKxGfndNg

If this is correct then we’re probably looking at a large scale withdrawal as we saw in the north of Ukraine a few months ago. They’d withdraw to more defensible positions and try to avoid encirclement and capture.

To bad for all the Russians who died taking land that they are now running from.
Russian Defence Ministry comes out with first statement on the retreat, saying that they are “regrouping troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions” to step up its efforts in the Donetsk direction.
https://twitter.com/pjotrsauer/status/1 ... zxKxGfndNg

If they are focusing on defending Donetsk they are going to lose a lot.

Now:
The Russians announce their withdrawal from Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv, close to the Russian border.
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/156 ... zxKxGfndNg

Looks like a general withdrawal.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:53 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:51 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:44 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:42 am


https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... zxKxGfndNg

If this is correct then we’re probably looking at a large scale withdrawal as we saw in the north of Ukraine a few months ago. They’d withdraw to more defensible positions and try to avoid encirclement and capture.

To bad for all the Russians who died taking land that they are now running from.
Russian Defence Ministry comes out with first statement on the retreat, saying that they are “regrouping troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions” to step up its efforts in the Donetsk direction.
https://twitter.com/pjotrsauer/status/1 ... zxKxGfndNg

If they are focusing on defending Donetsk they are going to lose a lot.

Now:
The Russians announce their withdrawal from Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv, close to the Russian border.
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/156 ... zxKxGfndNg

Looks like a general withdrawal.
The road's wide open to liberate Bilhorod :twisted:

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:04 pm

Sounds like there might be a push towards Lysychansk, too. Before everything went berserk, there was a push back towards Bilohorivka, so it could be building on that.

The problem the Russians are facing is that Ukraine has a) more forces and b) faster moving forces. Ukraine also does not need to garrison against partisans. Russia doesn't have enough troops to properly garrison the long frontline, and that leaves gaps. Ukraine can afford to reconnoitre those gaps, and when they find them, hit them. If Russia moves troops to respond, it just opens up more gaps.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:34 pm

lpm wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:29 am
Izyum is over. There seems to be a race eastwards from Lyman to Severodonetsk, Ukraine testing how far they can pursue the routed troops.
Looks like Russia is responding at Lysychansk. Halting the rout on the west side of the river, delaying the capture of Severodonetsk on the east side.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:37 pm

It's worth remembering that rumours often outrun reality.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 10, 2022 6:16 pm

Lots of reports that Ukrainian troops are at Donetsk airport.

Treat with caution until confirmed.

But, holy sh.t.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 10, 2022 6:45 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 6:16 pm
Lots of reports that Ukrainian troops are at Donetsk airport.

Treat with caution until confirmed.

But, holy sh.t.
There are photos but I wouldn't be able to judge their plausibily
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 10, 2022 6:53 pm

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... LNz3hGnl0Q
Darth Putin
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2:52 PM · Sep 10, 2022
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 11, 2022 9:07 am

Ghanimah Abandoned T-80s, looks like from the once-feared 4th Guards Tank Division "Kantemirovskaya". Enough, by the looks of it, to outfit a tank company.

These were abandoned in Izyum. Given that these are T-80s, which have a notoriously thirsty turbine engine, it could be they were out of fuel.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 11, 2022 9:10 am

Yes, indeed, lots of video of captured Russian equipment and depots full of ammunition.

One point in the eternal debate over whether Ukraine would be better off with NATO standard equipment is that Ukrainians will find it easy to use what they’ve captured. Ammunition is of the correct caliber, parts can be stripped from vehicles. Captured ammunition means that Ukrainian units that can use it can keep advancing without needing to wait for resupply.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 11, 2022 9:40 am

Detailed map of the Kharkiv offensive: https://twitter.com/jominiw/status/1568 ... BH5FHLWFRg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 11, 2022 9:45 am

Looking more and more like a general Russian withdrawal, even from places not under attack: https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/statu ... BH5FHLWFRg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 11, 2022 11:42 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:44 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:42 am
If the Russian army left Svatovo as this guy says on camera - and Svatovo is about 60 km from the nearest town taken over by Ukraine - this would be the first case of retreat long before even attempting to defend a long-held position. Something bigger must be brewing inside if so
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... zxKxGfndNg

If this is correct then we’re probably looking at a large scale withdrawal as we saw in the north of Ukraine a few months ago. They’d withdraw to more defensible positions and try to avoid encirclement and capture.

To bad for all the Russians who died taking land that they are now running from.
Russian Defence Ministry comes out with first statement on the retreat, saying that they are “regrouping troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions” to step up its efforts in the Donetsk direction.
https://twitter.com/pjotrsauer/status/1 ... zxKxGfndNg

If they are focusing on defending Donetsk they are going to lose a lot.
Or not defending Donetsk


https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/stat ... 2oTr4JK73Q
Euan MacDonald
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Sun at his back: If this was filmed recently, the puppet leader of the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, is headed east, towards Russia - and in a hurry.
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Penis Dushilin, "head" of the Donbas occupation, records a public address while probably fleeing from Donetsk. Translation and subtitles mine.
4:50 PM · Sep 10, 2022
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 11, 2022 11:49 am

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 2oTr4JK73Q

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 11, 2022 12:21 pm

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/156 ... rG9t8ZtT3w



Benjamin Pittet
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The map seen in the sitrep of the Russian Ministry of Defense shows that they have abandoned the entire territory of the Karkhiv Oblast west of the Oskol River.

https://t.me/mod_russia/19758
12:40 PM · Sep 11, 2022
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 11, 2022 12:23 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Sep 11, 2022 9:45 am
Looking more and more like a general Russian withdrawal, even from places not under attack: https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/statu ... BH5FHLWFRg
And it’s official: https://twitter.com/the_lookout_n/statu ... fsJYukwPuw

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:30 pm

Here's something we've not seen for a while.

Presumably so many vehicles have been abandoned that there aren't enough recovery vehicles to go round, so they had to put the tractors back to work :twisted:

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