Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:46 pm

Something to consider;

The total collapse of Russian forces west of the Oskil has allowed Ukraine to simply march into towns to liberate them. In some towns, the blue and yellow flag was flying and people were in the streets before the Ukrainian troops even arrived. These gains will not need rapidly moving mechanised infantry and armoured tank fists to defend them. A lot of the troops that won the victory are now freed up. This was discussed with the previous Russian collapse, but then, the troops that won in the north were exhausted from five weeks of brutal fighting. This time it was five days.

So it won't be long before they are rested and refitted and ready for battle again. Russian rumours are already talking about concentrations forming near Vuhledar - and the Russian mil-blog-sphere actually did spot some of the buildup for Kharkiv oblast. Also, I agree with the assessment posted upthread that it is likely Ukraine has other formations of this nature too.

An attack from Vuhledar in the direction of Volnovakha and Mariupol would cut Russia's land corridor to Crimea and deny them an important port. In addition, the liberation of Mariupol would be an enormous symbolic victory, would allow for the exposure of more of the Putin regime's crimes before they are fully covered up, and save the remaining populace. Another option would be attacking towards Tokmak and Melitopol. This would be a safer option, as it's right at the point where Russia's supply lines are longest, and it would still cut that land corridor.

The south is harder, in some ways, as they is less forest cover to conceal movements. It's also perhaps less of a priority as it is drier, so ground conditions will not deteriorate so much as they will in the north. But it's worth watching the south. There's been some movement on that frontline lately, just south of Huliapole.

The other possibility would be to continue east. There's talk about Svatove being possibly abandoned by the Russians. An attack east through Svatove and on through Starobil's'k would completely cut the northern supply route into Luhansk Oblast, though the rail line is already in GMLRS range at this point. An attack could also swing down to liberate Severodonetsk.

I'm not saying we will see another attack, but we might. It's worth watching out for. Ukraine will want to keep Russia on the back foot for as long as possible.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 11, 2022 7:06 pm

More looking for scapegoats;

General Berdnikov has allegedly been fired from command of the Russian Western Military District after approximately two weeks.

And Russian nationalists are starting rumours that Putin's a Jew :roll:

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 11, 2022 7:10 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:46 pm
Something to consider;

The total collapse of Russian forces west of the Oskil has allowed Ukraine to simply march into towns to liberate them. In some towns, the blue and yellow flag was flying and people were in the streets before the Ukrainian troops even arrived. These gains will not need rapidly moving mechanised infantry and armoured tank fists to defend them. A lot of the troops that won the victory are now freed up. This was discussed with the previous Russian collapse, but then, the troops that won in the north were exhausted from five weeks of brutal fighting. This time it was five days.

So it won't be long before they are rested and refitted and ready for battle again. Russian rumours are already talking about concentrations forming near Vuhledar - and the Russian mil-blog-sphere actually did spot some of the buildup for Kharkiv oblast. Also, I agree with the assessment posted upthread that it is likely Ukraine has other formations of this nature too.

An attack from Vuhledar in the direction of Volnovakha and Mariupol would cut Russia's land corridor to Crimea and deny them an important port. In addition, the liberation of Mariupol would be an enormous symbolic victory, would allow for the exposure of more of the Putin regime's crimes before they are fully covered up, and save the remaining populace. Another option would be attacking towards Tokmak and Melitopol. This would be a safer option, as it's right at the point where Russia's supply lines are longest, and it would still cut that land corridor.

The south is harder, in some ways, as they is less forest cover to conceal movements. It's also perhaps less of a priority as it is drier, so ground conditions will not deteriorate so much as they will in the north. But it's worth watching the south. There's been some movement on that frontline lately, just south of Huliapole.

The other possibility would be to continue east. There's talk about Svatove being possibly abandoned by the Russians. An attack east through Svatove and on through Starobil's'k would completely cut the northern supply route into Luhansk Oblast, though the rail line is already in GMLRS range at this point. An attack could also swing down to liberate Severodonetsk.

I'm not saying we will see another attack, but we might. It's worth watching out for. Ukraine will want to keep Russia on the back foot for as long as possible.
There's another thing that I'm not sure the implications have been thought through, because this is really the first war where it's been applicable.

The impact on other parts of the front of the information bubble being burst. And the State media accepting that there has been a defeat in the East.

Imagine you're a Russian soldier, say in Kherson. Your supply situation has been pretty rubbish for weeks by now, but you're holding on. You do however have a mobile phone and you often call your parents. Parents who are naturally interested/concerned about their son, so will keenly watch state TV for news updates on the war.

They're likely to ask you how you're doing given the bad news from the East. At that point, you'd be likely to start putting two and two together and think you're in trouble too, so maybe there's going to be another collapse, but this time in your part of the line.

Even, or especially, if the military are trying to keep the Eastern front news from the other troops, the news will spread to them pretty quickly now, and with a significant loss of trust in the official lines both at home and on the front.



It could have interesting effects on the will to fight of the other Russian troops.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 11, 2022 7:31 pm

Short thread on Ukr continuing on into Luhansk https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/statu ... 3m8xNDoeJQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 11, 2022 8:12 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Sep 11, 2022 7:31 pm
Short thread on Ukr continuing on into Luhansk https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/statu ... 3m8xNDoeJQ
He makes good points. He's also not one prone to overenthusiam, and is generally cautious with good news. I don't mean that as any sort of criticism, but when he's saying there's a good chance to attack, there is.

My one concern with pushing east from Kharkiv Oblast would be the flanks. It would form a large salient, and as well as having vulnerable flanks, it would start to be quite a long way to the front of the salient, whereas Russia's supply lines would be getting shorter.

With a move in the south, the Kal'mius and Kal'chyk rivers would be to the left of the advance, and crossings could be attacked to secure the flank. On the other hand, an attack on the south wouldn't cut the Russian supply lines to much of the Donbas, or liberate territory taken before this year, whereas swinging round to Luhansk would do both.

However, it even be possible to do both. The side with more troops is generally going to want to stretch the fighting over a wider area. This is also true of the side with more mobile troops. In both cases, that's Ukraine, especially since the Russians threw away so many troops slowly grinding their way into Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, where almost every square kilometre was taken with combat, in contrast to this recent Ukrainian offensive, where much territory has been retaken by manoeuvre.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 11, 2022 9:15 pm

Süddeutsche Zeitung reporting US considering supplying modern main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

This should have been considered in February, but better late than never. Firstly we cannot rely on this collapse continuing forever, and secondly, Ukraine should be aiming to retake Crimea. Not only should we be willing to support them doing this, but if Russian positions in the rest of Ukraine collapse, if Ukraine possesses the ability to retake it, it will put pressure on Russia to relinquish it without a fight.

The west's position should be that while an earlier collapse of Russian forces is possible and would be extremely welcome, it cannot be relied upon and thus the goal should be to arm Ukraine to the point that the Russian's can reliably be expelled from Ukraine by the end of summer next year at the latest.

It would take about six months to train up Ukrainian crews to a western standard on western MBTs and IFVs, assuming the crews chosen have a little bit of basic military training, but no specific vehicle training*. Assuming a month to get things up and running, that would see them available for service some time around the end of the spring rasputitsa. In practise, training can likely be condensed, and it may be possible to find crews that already know how to operate some military vehicles. Starting with relatively or even entirely green troops, though, means that training for next year doesn't take troops away from the battlefield this year.

Mechanised and Armoured formations are clearly the way forward for Ukraine and the recapture of territory. To be successful they need to be protected against air attack. I've seen it stated that the arrival of Gepard SPAAGs from Germany was a major factor enabling the Kharkiv offensive, and that makes sense as not only can they engage enemy aircraft, their radars can sense them even beyond the range of their autocannon, which means they can work with MANPADS teams. Every SPAAG and SHORADS available should be sent. In addition, six months is about how long it takes a pilot to qualify on fast jets after mastering advanced jet trainers. Anything that can carry AMRAAMs or Meteors would be able to keep Russian aircraft away from these mechanised strike formations without needing to go too close to the lines.


*That's how long it takes to train British troops fresh from basic training to operate Challenger 2s, and that can include people who don't even know how to drive at the start of training.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sun Sep 11, 2022 10:30 pm

Thread about the collapse of Russian forces
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... t1G3Gk_UDA
A bit churlish

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:45 am

Worth looking at the map of Russia, as well as all the Ukraine maps.

Belgorod was a key hub, with Putin presumably making a big investment in its logistics capability in the last few months. Now it's useless. There's not much point in any more daring raids by Ukraine because it's off on a limb.

The Russia-Ukraine border all the way eastwards from the Oskil is just agricultural land. There's no real conurbations hence no roads or rail. It's 100 miles from the Oskil to the north east corner of Ukraine, with literally just a single major road and one railway line to Troitske within range of Ukraine's artillery.

Then it's another 150 miles down the eastern side of Ukraine to Rostov-in-Don, Russia's other big logistics hub.

I'm so used to British scale and population density, I always struggle to have a sense of the vast emptiness and the long distances involved. Look at the Ukraine map and you think Russia can supply the north eastern section easily enough from the north. But this is Bristol to London with just farm tracks. I really can't get my head round that. This is what the one main road to Tanyushivka looks like:

https://www.google.com/maps/@49.8220453 ... 2!1b1!2i37

This is what another of the roads looks like in winter:
https://www.google.com/maps/@49.7003631 ... 120!8i2560

Basically it comes back to EACL's length of supply lines. Belgorod was knocked out of the war last week and with it goes an entire supply infrastructure. Putin has to do some pretty hard thinking.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Sep 12, 2022 3:04 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:45 am
Basically it comes back to EACL's length of supply lines. Belgorod was knocked out of the war last week and with it goes an entire supply infrastructure. Putin has to do some pretty hard thinking.
More or less this. It's not absolute - few things are in war - but Belgorod's role as a staging point is much diminished. Nonetheless, I expect there will be ZSU strikes on the oblast. There are number of important targets. Most urgently, there are a number of positions used by Russian BM-30 Smerch MLRS to shell civilians in Kharkiv. They will either be in range of Ukrainian artillery - and remember, it's just GMLRS they've said they won't use on Russian soil - or they'll have to retreat to the point they can't bombard Kharkiv any more. Couple that with tube artillery now being out of range, and that's good news in terms of protecting civilians. There are also major ammunition depots in the oblast. These predate the war, and even Russia puts peacetime ammo depots a long way from civilians, so they make an ideal target.

And speaking of supply lines, don't forget Kherson oblast. It looks like the Ukrainians have advanced along the coast somewhat, nd probably in other areas too. They've certainly maintained their expanded bridgehead across the Inhulets. Satellite imagery shows some Russian units falling back and abandoning dug in positions, and there's talk that the Russians might be trying to pull back towards the river so they can benefit from artillery support from batteries on the east bank of the Dnipro. While that would allow them to fire more shells, as they wouldn't have to be carried across the river, they wouldn't have much in the way of range. Ukraine has artillery outranges most Russian artillery, including the 2S7s and the majority of NATO guns but especially the long-barrelled Krabs, CAESARs and PzH2000s, so pulling back across the Dnipro means that frontline units could be shelled with impunity.

There's also rumours of units trying to negotiate surrender, but so far I've seen nothing solid on this.

There's also talk of Ukrainian forces removing mines around Vuhledar. While that would suggest an attack in the Volnovakha->Mariupol direction with the Kal'myk and Kal'mius to anchor the left flank, it could be a misdirection.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Allo V Psycho » Mon Sep 12, 2022 3:13 pm

There is a video of two Russian SU-25s taking off. The leader rolls left and the wingman follows slightly later and crashes. I won't link to the video.
It looks to me as if the wingman rolls slightly late to stay with the leader, and then overcompensates. He will be at full power in the take off, so has no spare power, but is also at relatively low speed for a jet. He will now have increased drag and reduced lift on the left wing. Once he is at right angles to the ground he will have no lift at all. I wonder if this is a sign of inadequately trained pilots being used?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:35 pm

First YouTube I found of that Su-25 crash claims it sees the two planes strike wingtips. It's not clear but I'm inclined to agree. There isn't especially obvious damage to the crashing plane's wing as it banks but I could be persuaded it's not quite symmetrical, as if the tip was missing. That alone probably wouldn't be catastrophic but if it jammed a control surface, forcing the plane to roll, then it might.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:37 pm

Allo V Psycho wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 3:13 pm
There is a video of two Russian SU-25s taking off. The leader rolls left and the wingman follows slightly later and crashes. I won't link to the video.
It looks to me as if the wingman rolls slightly late to stay with the leader, and then overcompensates. He will be at full power in the take off, so has no spare power, but is also at relatively low speed for a jet. He will now have increased drag and reduced lift on the left wing. Once he is at right angles to the ground he will have no lift at all. I wonder if this is a sign of inadequately trained pilots being used?
Could also be exhaustion, or a mechanical failure due to over-use, poor maintenance, or even minor battle damage from a previous flight turning out to be not so minor.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:45 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:37 pm
Allo V Psycho wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 3:13 pm
There is a video of two Russian SU-25s taking off. The leader rolls left and the wingman follows slightly later and crashes. I won't link to the video.
It looks to me as if the wingman rolls slightly late to stay with the leader, and then overcompensates. He will be at full power in the take off, so has no spare power, but is also at relatively low speed for a jet. He will now have increased drag and reduced lift on the left wing. Once he is at right angles to the ground he will have no lift at all. I wonder if this is a sign of inadequately trained pilots being used?
Could also be exhaustion, or a mechanical failure due to over-use, poor maintenance, or even minor battle damage from a previous flight turning out to be not so minor.
I've also seen a comment which mentions wake turbulence, i.e. the wingman (who is on the right) getting his left wing into the wingtip vortex of the leader such that the left wing would suddenly lose all lift.
molto tricky

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:34 pm

I'm seeing reports that Russia is suspending new unit arrivals into the Ukraine. Rather important if true. If they aren't reinforcing does it presage withdrawls?

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1 ... 7142906880

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:41 pm

bjn wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:34 pm
I'm seeing reports that Russia is suspending new unit arrivals into the Ukraine. Rather important if true. If they aren't reinforcing does it presage withdrawls?

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1 ... 7142906880
And that there are mass surrenders in Kherson due to lack of ammunition
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Matatouille » Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:58 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:37 pm
Allo V Psycho wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 3:13 pm
There is a video of two Russian SU-25s taking off. The leader rolls left and the wingman follows slightly later and crashes. I won't link to the video.
It looks to me as if the wingman rolls slightly late to stay with the leader, and then overcompensates. He will be at full power in the take off, so has no spare power, but is also at relatively low speed for a jet. He will now have increased drag and reduced lift on the left wing. Once he is at right angles to the ground he will have no lift at all. I wonder if this is a sign of inadequately trained pilots being used?
Could also be exhaustion, or a mechanical failure due to over-use, poor maintenance, or even minor battle damage from a previous flight turning out to be not so minor.
Looks like a classic wing drop stall, My first thought is #2 had perhaps forgotten to deploy slats/flaps, or had not the same degree extended as #1, following in the turn at a speed that was fine for #1 would be curtains for #2. Especially if #1 was at the low end of their safe maneuver speed range. Unrecoverable at that altitude, and very little time to identify the issue and initiate eject - the instant the aircraft had passed 90 degrees, no ejector seat in the world can help you at that altitude. As EACLucifer says, it could be a symptom of previous damage, for example causing slats/flaps to retract asymmetrically. For equivalent mass aircraft (as these are) wake is not likely to be a major factor. It is more often an issue with something Cessna sized encountering the wake of something airliner sized.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:13 pm

Important points made via wartranslated. Mobilization won't solve Russia's personnel problems because a) the army lacks the organizational capacity to manage people, and b) the writer doesn't so much lack people, as lack people with specialist skills.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... NEddpAOq7w

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:38 pm

Matatouille wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:58 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:37 pm
Allo V Psycho wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 3:13 pm
There is a video of two Russian SU-25s taking off. The leader rolls left and the wingman follows slightly later and crashes. I won't link to the video.
It looks to me as if the wingman rolls slightly late to stay with the leader, and then overcompensates. He will be at full power in the take off, so has no spare power, but is also at relatively low speed for a jet. He will now have increased drag and reduced lift on the left wing. Once he is at right angles to the ground he will have no lift at all. I wonder if this is a sign of inadequately trained pilots being used?
Could also be exhaustion, or a mechanical failure due to over-use, poor maintenance, or even minor battle damage from a previous flight turning out to be not so minor.
Looks like a classic wing drop stall, My first thought is #2 had perhaps forgotten to deploy slats/flaps, or had not the same degree extended as #1, following in the turn at a speed that was fine for #1 would be curtains for #2. Especially if #1 was at the low end of their safe maneuver speed range. Unrecoverable at that altitude, and very little time to identify the issue and initiate eject - the instant the aircraft had passed 90 degrees, no ejector seat in the world can help you at that altitude. As EACLucifer says, it could be a symptom of previous damage, for example causing slats/flaps to retract asymmetrically. For equivalent mass aircraft (as these are) wake is not likely to be a major factor. It is more often an issue with something Cessna sized encountering the wake of something airliner sized.
https://twitter.com/Gildayouille/status ... 1727401989
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“Reads WW2 air flight manual warning about sharps turns at takeoff, fully laden with low airspeed”. Yup, still the same.
Video under discussion in tweet to which it is replying

then

https://twitter.com/Gildayouille/status ... 3MpWomWXHQ
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The P40 “Pilot Training Manual” P53 “climb straight ahead at 150mph IAS until you reach at least 300ft…” so no hard manoeuvres until speed and altitude permits it.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:40 am

bjn wrote:
Mon Sep 12, 2022 7:34 pm
I'm seeing reports that Russia is suspending new unit arrivals into the Ukraine. Rather important if true. If they aren't reinforcing does it presage withdrawls?

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1 ... 7142906880
Per the latest ZSU General Staff update, it could well be that the people within those units are refusing to go.

This is the thing about victory and defeat - they are contagious. Fleeing troops take with them panic, and in this modern age of information and instant communications, that is greatly amplified. Many Russian soldiers still in Russia will know their army is being defeated in the north and in the south. They will know that the tiny advances on the Donbas frontline are won at a terrible cost in blood. They will know about the corruption, and may already have experienced things like having to buy official equipment they should have been issued on the internet, usually from the people that stole it.

They don't want to go, and it's easy to see why.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by plodder » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:05 am

there are people in those explosions

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:10 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:05 am
there are people in those explosions
Who are invading another country and using the weapons in those explosions to commit war crimes and murder civilians.

Killing them is horrible, but it's a means to stopping a war that would have far worse outcomes if they were not killed. They aren't being killed on the whims of a tyrant, unlike the people in Bucha, and Izyum and all the other occupied territories.

I won't celebrate the deaths of the people in those explosions, but nor will I mourn them.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:30 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:05 am
there are people in those explosions
Yes, but far fewer than there were be in the explosions caused when that ammunition was used against cities, and the people are part of an army invading with the intent to subjugate and destroy another country, an army that commits atrocities wherever it occupies.

But given how very slow you are, I'll show it with pictures. This

Image

Is better than this

Image

and this

Image

For those wondering, the first picture is a Russian ammunition depot exploding. The second picture is Russian thermite shelling of Marinka - use of incendiary weapons in civilian areas is a warcrime - and the third picture is just one small part of the ruins of Mariupol.

Or to put it another way, when people use these

Image

against civilians, or to invade other countries, it is imperative that they be taken from them. (pictured is a 9M27K cluster rocket, heavily used by Russia in Ukraine and Syria)

Unfortunately, vicious warmongering armies don't tend to cooperate with efforts to disarm them. That leaves the alternative of using these

Image

do destroy their weapons before they use them to kill people. (pictured is an M31 GMLRS rocket)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:35 am

bjn wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:10 am
I won't celebrate the deaths of the people in those explosions, but nor will I mourn them.
I think most people are celebrating the destruction of the ammunition, not the deaths of the people whose job it was to supply that ammunition to the invading Russian army.

And since the provision of M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS and their M31GMLRS rockets enabled Ukraine to go on a spree of destroying Russian depots, the Russian advance into Ukraine ground to a halt. That means fewer people killed by artillery. Fewer people displaced. Fewer people tortured, murdered or raped by the occupying army.

And in the long run, the Russian defeat means they won't be able to move on to Bosnia or Moldova. It sends a message to other countries that might be planning invasions, such as the fascist regime in Beijing.

War is hideous, but this war shows so clearly it only takes one nation to start a war. In the face of such an invasion, the world had two choices - aid Ukraine in fighting back, or accept and reward the invasion.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:37 am

Are the people in the munitions dump explosions more likely to be conscripts, or people with some say over the course of the invasion?

Laughing at people's painful deaths is a bit weird imho. It's not a necessary part of supporting Ukraine either.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:53 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:48 am
righteous. now there's a word.
I have no idea what you are hinting at.

Chap I work with is Ukrainian, from the Western side of the country. He has cousins in Kharkiv, who were being shelled, daily, for weeks, for being Ukrainian, and no other reason. I think a bit of anger from both of them is justified, and quite possibly righteous.

There are several million more people like that.
Last edited by bjn on Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:54 am, edited 1 time in total.

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