Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:54 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:37 am
Are the people in the munitions dump explosions more likely to be conscripts, or people with some say over the course of the invasion?

Laughing at people's painful deaths is a bit weird imho. It's not a necessary part of supporting Ukraine either.
Most likely to be contractniks, like most of the people taking part of the invasion. See also my reply to BJN - it's the loss of the weaponry that is largely what is celebrated, and the thwarting of Russia's invasion plans.

Anyway, getting back on topic, two great balls of fire seen at Taganrog airbase, which look a lot like those seen at Saki when the Russian base there was bombed*. Assuming, that is, that Trukha didn't find a different photo-angle of the Saki strikes and re-use it. I don't think they did, but I don't really trust Trukha very much.

*Yes, plodder, some people were almost certainly killed at Saki, but then one must remember this was Russian aviation that was targetted. You know, the guys that got a list of hospital sites supplied to them so they could avoid hitting it, and used it to target the hospitals. When it comes to Russian aviation, shutting them down is more important than caring about their lives.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:11 am

More than happy to cheer the destruction of Russian arms.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:34 am

Seeing some apparently recent* footage that suggests that in some parts of Ukraine, the mud season is beginning. This will slow things down, but more so in the north than in the south.

*A militarised pickup being pushed out of mud by Ukrainian troops. Though we saw such vehicles in the spring, they didn't tend to be neatly camouflaged to a roughly standard scheme then, they were much more ramshackle.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:59 am

Does mud season potentially open up avenues for guerrilla warfare instead? Sounds like it prevents much movement of heavy equipment
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:11 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:59 am
Does mud season potentially open up avenues for guerrilla warfare instead? Sounds like it prevents much movement of heavy equipment
I suspect it's more that it prevents the movement of unsuitable heavy equipment that's been badly maintained across country rather than along roads.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainian forces could move equipment much more easily than Russian forces. At the very least, farmers will be happy to lend their tractors to recover vehicles that get stuck.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:15 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:59 am
Does mud season potentially open up avenues for guerrilla warfare instead? Sounds like it prevents much movement of heavy equipment
Potentially, yes. Mud season slows down movements that aren't on roads especially, but also those that are, because it forces all the traffic onto the roads and creates congestion, and the state of many roads in Ukraine after seven months of warfare is pretty dire.

Mud season advantages troops on foot over heavy vehicles, and tracked vehicles over wheeled, though Ukraine's mud is legendary, and even tanks can become utterly stuck, as we saw in the spring. In terms of conflict, it advantages the side with better equipment for recovering vehicles, but also the side with better cohesion, as they are more likely to help each other as they do get stuck. Advantaging troops on foot would be generally to Ukraine's advantage, as they have access to a lot of very effective human-portable weapons from the west, things like Starstreak and Javelin missiles. It would also favour the use of artillery, as that doesn't need to go off-road, or right to the frontline for that matter.

It will, however, bugger up things like the Ukrainian offensive through Kharkiv oblast. Mechanised manoeuvre warfare - aka Blitzkrieg - relies on speed, and that needs roads that can carry vehicles reliably. On the other hand, in the south, it is less critical, as the southern steppe is drier than northern Ukraine and the Donbas.

Mud was a contributing factor to the guerilla warfare we saw back in march, as it saw a lot of vehicles trapped and abandoned and hindered the ability to manoeuvre, leaving vulnerable convoys that guerillas could pick off. However, the main reason for guerilla warfare back in march was Russia's ludicrous tactics - which are what caused people to start using the word Blyatskrieg to begin with - where they big off far more than they could chew and sent lets of armoured spearheads deep into Ukrainian territory but didn't secure the territory they had passed, meaning partisans and stay-behind troops could attack their rear/supply lines.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:52 pm

Rheinmetall has apparently refurbished 16 Marders already and has 14 in the workshops. 70 more are available.

The problem is the German government is reportedly blocking the transfers.

There really isn't the slightest logic to it. If escalation is their concern, then how on earth are old infantry fighting vehicles more escalatory than state of the art long range heavy gun-howitzers or GMLRS launchers?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:01 pm

Iranian Shahed-136 loitering munition wreckage - rebadged as герань-2 - has been found in Ukraine. Another success for US intel, who reported on this deal despite denials from the Russian and Iranian regimes.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:07 pm

Turns out the footage of the great balls of fire was footage of Saki after all. There's a reason I don't trust Trukha. Reports of explosions at the airbase in Taganrog are legit and widely sourced, but the footage was re-used old footage.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:10 am

Righto, the point of this thread was to discuss technical details of the war in Ukraine. If people felt there was too much glee in a post about the deaths of Russians, that could've been raised in a more serious way.

The thread has got too fighty. Ironically. Quite literally, gentlemen, you can't fight in here, this is the war room.

I'm going to split off several posts into the Pit now.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:11 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:10 am
Righto, the point of this thread was to discuss technical details of the war in Ukraine. If people felt there was too much glee in a post about the deaths of Russians, that could've been raised in a more serious way.

The thread has got too fighty. Ironically. Quite literally, gentlemen, you can't fight in here, this is the war room.

I'm going to split off several posts into the Pit now.
Thanks.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:17 am

Looks like the Russians might, finally, be taking the bridge issue around Kherson seriously. This has been identified as the SARM system, roughly the Soviet equivalent of the Medium Girder bridge used in the west, and similar in concept to the WWII Bailey Bridge. These could potentially be used to cover the damaged spans of the Antonivsky and Kakhovsky bridges, though they are not that quick to put up, and could be struck at any point after construction, or the construction works could even be struck as the bridge sections are emplaced.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:59 pm

After nearly seven months, Russia has finally struck a Nazi target!

To be specific, they struck a pier from an abandoned attempt to bridge the Dnipro during WWII. They tried to pass this off as a barge of Ukrainian special forces. Casualties are thought to be light, and entirely confined to cormorants.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:12 am

Good thread on the effects of Russian officers sending false reports to their superiors: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... lOjBBW9DbQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:20 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:12 am
Good thread on the effects of Russian officers sending false reports to their superiors: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... lOjBBW9DbQ
Yes, lots of examples and scoping how bad the problem was, which we knew was present.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 15, 2022 8:29 am

jimbob wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:20 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:12 am
Good thread on the effects of Russian officers sending false reports to their superiors: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... lOjBBW9DbQ
Yes, lots of examples and scoping how bad the problem was, which we knew was present.
A lot of people have a superficial awareness of the concept of fog of war. Quite a few people seem to miss that it doesn't just refer to uncertainty about what the enemy is doing, but uncertainty as to what one's own troops on the ground are doing. It was quite a major factor in the first world war - where one of the several factors contributing to stalemate was that defending forces had effective realtime communications via field telephone and attackers did not - and since then, much effort has gone into remedying the issue. That Russia are still experiencing it at this level due to a culture of unaddressed corruption puts them in a very difficult position. It should also be a wakeup call to western forces that corruption rots forces from the inside out, and even the slightest amount cannot be tolerated.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:36 am

Makes you wonder how much blue on blue the Russians have been suffering from too as they withdraw at speed with shite comms...

The west needs to keep up the support to keep Russian forces going backwards. I hope they see this collapse of Russian defences as the justification to supply more rather than less to Ukraine.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:24 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:59 pm
After nearly seven months, Russia has finally struck a Nazi target!

To be specific, they struck a pier from an abandoned attempt to bridge the Dnipro during WWII. They tried to pass this off as a barge of Ukrainian special forces. Casualties are thought to be light, and entirely confined to cormorants.
https://twitter.com/PerfoHub/status/157 ... PZ68j2-aXA
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 17, 2022 9:48 am

Amidst the dramatic push east through Kharkiv oblast, a lot of rumours flew about, to the point it was hard to work out what was really going on. So a few points;

The Ukrainians quickly captured right-bank Kupyans'k and Izium. It's only in the last couple of days that they captured left-bank Kupyans'k.

The Ukrainians did not liberate Svatove or Lyman. They have, however, captured Staryi Karavan, Ozerne and Dibrova, meaning they are knocking on the door of Lyman, a position the Russians appear determined to hold. Slightly further west, Svyatohirsk has also been liberated.

It looks certain that no Ukrainian forces entered Donetsk airport. In fact, the Russians appear to have briefly pushed the Ukrainians back, temporarily capturing the fortified position known as The Anthill, though this has since been retaken.

There has been very little information coming out of Kherson oblast, but it looks like the Ukrainians are slowly expanding the bridgehead over the Inhulets south of Davydiv Brid.

The units that liberated Kharkiv oblast west of the Oskil likely need some rest and reorganisation, however it does appear Ukrainian losses were light, and they were fighting hard for about a week, so this probably won't be an especially long process.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:21 pm

Satellite imagery appears to confirm the rumours that the Russians have retreated from the village of Kyselivka in Kherson oblast, a key part of the Russian defensive line for months.

The next point the Ukrainians will reach if they continue advancing along the M14 towards Kherson city is Chornobaivka, the site of Kherson airport. Chornobaivka became famous after the destruction of a number of Russian helicopters on the ground at the airport, and became something of a meme due to the sheer number of times the Russians have been shelled there. It is heavily fortified, with numerous armoured vehicles dug in and protected by revetments. It is also likely a site used by the Russians to receive reinforcements and supplies by helicopter, though the amount of materiel that can be moved this way is limited.

Ukrainian forces in Kherson oblast have three main options as to how to proceed.

Option 1 - Coup de Main. They could directly assault Chornobaivka. This is likely to be very costly, so it's unlikely they'll do this, however, if Russians start pulling back from Chornobaivka itself, or their position otherwise becomes weakened, there might be an opportunity.

Option 2 - Bombardment. The goal here would be to destroy the Russian defences over time, using long range fires and aviation. With the Dnipro between the Russian garrison and their reinforcements, heavy equipment is particularly difficult to replace. Heavy equipment is more difficult to move by pontoon ferry, and more likely to collapse the seriously damaged Antonivsky bridge. Few pieces of equipment are heavier than tanks, and dug in tanks are a major part of the defences at Chornobaivka. Though it's quite difficut to destroy dug in armoured vehicles, it can be done, and Ukraine is well set up to do it. Having access to the right sort of munitions if vital here. Guided artillery rounds like Excalibur have the accuracy to strike the target directly, ignoring the defences provided by the revetments and tank scrapes. SMArt 155 would be even better, as it carries two munitions that can each destroy any vehicle from above. Brimstone missiles can also identify and hit targets directly in such environments, and now the Ukrainians have Kyselivka, they will be in range. Finally there's drones, both large ones like Bayraktar TB2s, and small multicopters, which can drop a variety of grenades and have recently been seen dropping anti-armour submunitions pulled from cluster bombs. None of these options allows for a quick victory, and Russian infantry and trenches will be much harder to destroy than armour, but over time, the defences can potentially be reduced enough to enable Option 1 or force the Russians to abandon the position. Option 2 can be carried out at the same time as Option 3.

Option 3 - Pin and Manoeuvre. The goal here would not be to strike through Chornobaivka at all, unless the Russians radically depleted their defences there. Instead, the aim would be to leave a force that can not only hold Kyselivka, but that also has the potential to strike Chornobaivka if the Russian defences are weakened. This forces the Russians to leave the garrison where it is, preventing their deployment to other parts of the theatre to stop Ukrainian advances in the north, or the far south along the Dnipro estuary. During this period there is no reason not to also conduct bombardments of the defences, and if the Russians were to move enough of the garrison away to counter other advances, the force left in Kyselivka could then move to assault Chornobaivka.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:32 pm

I half expect the Ukrainian generals to have been tunneling to Sevastopol and their first move to be capture of the Black Sea Fleet in port.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:20 pm

Something's happening in Kherson city. There's footage of Russian forces with heavy gunfire taking place, autocannon fire from Russian vehicles, but also incoming autocannon fire.

I have no idea what is happening yet. Nor do any of the OSINT accounts I follow on twitter, nor any of the telegram channels I follow.

This is all very unexpected.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:41 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:20 pm
Something's happening in Kherson city. There's footage of Russian forces with heavy gunfire taking place, autocannon fire from Russian vehicles, but also incoming autocannon fire.

I have no idea what is happening yet. Nor do any of the OSINT accounts I follow on twitter, nor any of the telegram channels I follow.

This is all very unexpected.
The fact I saw a spectator just filming it on his mobile was... Um..

I would want to get away from there
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jdc » Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:49 pm

I have no idea what is happening yet.
The Russians claim they were firing at partisans. So we can rule that out.

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