Blyatskrieg

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2933
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Wed May 17, 2023 6:52 am

bjn wrote:
Tue May 16, 2023 11:01 am
The tools used by western air power are finally appearing on the battlefield, just not delivered by western airframes. How many more types of NATO ordnance can be effectively bodged onto existing UKR jets? If you can, you get a big capability upgrade very quickly, much faster than training pilots up on and waiting for delivery of NATO jets of whatever form*.

The Storm Shadow and SCALP seem relatively easy** as they don't need much integration with avionics as they are preprogrammed on the ground. Gaffer tapping on AMRAAMs will be harder, but they are fire and forget jobbies.


*yes, obviously "porque no la dos?"

** I have no idea really, I'm not a military aeronautical engineer type person
La dos is in the table!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -f-16-jets

No idea of the time table and how much arm twisting will be needed to get the USA onboard, but it’s a significant start.

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2933
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Thu May 18, 2023 7:59 am

This is an account of a Russian mobik surrendering to Ukrainian drones. His injured comrades killed themselves as they knew that no one was coming to save them from the Russian side and if they attempted to retreat they would be shot. They also believed that the Ukrainians would torture and kill them if captured. He took the chance and managed to surrender, being deliberately shelled by his own side while doing so. Sickening.

No images or video unless you click on links, and that those are supposed to be sanitised (I haven’t clicked, the words were bad enough).

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5 ... ing-escape

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 18, 2023 1:51 pm

bjn wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 7:59 am
This is an account of a Russian mobik surrendering to Ukrainian drones. His injured comrades killed themselves as they knew that no one was coming to save them from the Russian side and if they attempted to retreat they would be shot. They also believed that the Ukrainians would torture and kill them if captured. He took the chance and managed to surrender, being deliberately shelled by his own side while doing so. Sickening.

No images or video unless you click on links, and that those are supposed to be sanitised (I haven’t clicked, the words were bad enough).

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5 ... ing-escape
Not a unique case, either. Horribly reminscent of how Imperial Japan created paranoia and terror among their combatants and civilians.

Meanwhile I don't know the details, but there's reports of a massive wave of explosions in Sevastopol. Some rumours of Russian military exercises, so could be that rather than an attack, but worth keeping an eye on.

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 5297
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu May 18, 2023 3:20 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 1:51 pm
bjn wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 7:59 am
This is an account of a Russian mobik surrendering to Ukrainian drones. His injured comrades killed themselves as they knew that no one was coming to save them from the Russian side and if they attempted to retreat they would be shot. They also believed that the Ukrainians would torture and kill them if captured. He took the chance and managed to surrender, being deliberately shelled by his own side while doing so. Sickening.

No images or video unless you click on links, and that those are supposed to be sanitised (I haven’t clicked, the words were bad enough).

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5 ... ing-escape
Not a unique case, either. Horribly reminscent of how Imperial Japan created paranoia and terror among their combatants and civilians.

Meanwhile I don't know the details, but there's reports of a massive wave of explosions in Sevastopol. Some rumours of Russian military exercises, so could be that rather than an attack, but worth keeping an eye on.
There has been an apparent partisan attack on the railway between Simferopol and Sevastopol with an IED

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 48129?s=20
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 18, 2023 4:04 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 3:20 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 1:51 pm
bjn wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 7:59 am
This is an account of a Russian mobik surrendering to Ukrainian drones. His injured comrades killed themselves as they knew that no one was coming to save them from the Russian side and if they attempted to retreat they would be shot. They also believed that the Ukrainians would torture and kill them if captured. He took the chance and managed to surrender, being deliberately shelled by his own side while doing so. Sickening.

No images or video unless you click on links, and that those are supposed to be sanitised (I haven’t clicked, the words were bad enough).

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5 ... ing-escape
Not a unique case, either. Horribly reminscent of how Imperial Japan created paranoia and terror among their combatants and civilians.

Meanwhile I don't know the details, but there's reports of a massive wave of explosions in Sevastopol. Some rumours of Russian military exercises, so could be that rather than an attack, but worth keeping an eye on.
There has been an apparent partisan attack on the railway between Simferopol and Sevastopol with an IED

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 48129?s=20
Yes, but that's unrelated to these reports, which come from social media and basically consist of reports of a wave of more than a dozen explosions - but also claims that it's firing drills by the Russian military.

As for the IED, today is May the 18th. That's when Stalin's brutal deportation of the Crimean Tartars is remembered, it having started on that date in 1944. Estimates of deaths range from a sixth to nearly half of the Crimean Tartar population. f.cking up the logistics of the occupier - who also oppresses Crimean Tartars - would be a good way to mark such an anniversary.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 18, 2023 8:05 pm

Secretary Austin is a f.cking liar. Why? To protect the reputations of others as Defence Minister Lambrecht did when she inhibited the availability of stored Leopard tanks?

It's not two months since he claimed it would take eighteen months to convert Ukrainian pilots onto F-16s.

The USAFs assessment - conducted before that lie by Austin - was four months.

So why did Austin lie to Congress about how long it would take? The time it would take obviously isn't the reason, but the real reason is clearly something the administration are ashamed of. Are they still believing Russia's b.llsh.t about so-called "red lines"? Storm Shadow was a redline. They threatened a military response. Then a few days later they claimed it wouldn't really make much difference - the usual thing they can't respond and don't want to admit that they can't respond. Modern western MBTs were a "red line" right up until they were sent, then magically no better than a T-62 meaning Russia didn't have to conduct a response they couldn't survive. HIMARS was a "red line" right up until they were sent, then magically no better than a BM-27 Uragan meaning Russia didn't have to conduct a response they couldn't survive.

That assessment ended mid March. Ukrainians could have been in F-16s in two months time if the US foreign policy establishment were not packed to the brim with cowards. They are - per reports - still taking seriously Russian b.llsh.t about "red lines" while our own government is setting them, with the likes of Sullivan emitting nonsense about "world war three" as if Russia - unable to capture the 56th biggest city in Ukraine after nine and a half months - could be a threat to the USA.

Why does it matter? Well, Russian aircraft still threaten Ukraine, especially with glide bombs. AIM-120 AMRAAMs from the late C-block or D-block would deny them the ability to do that without exposing the F-16s to much danger. They'd be able to push the Su-34 SEAD patrols well back past the border to protect Ukrainian air defence. They'd be able to launch standoff munitions against Russian logistics and C3. And while I believe AAMs were used recently, anything that tries to launch a western AAM from a Warsaw Pact aircraft will be a lashup less effective than just launching them from a western aircraft.

There seems to be an attitude that's developed that the best way to end a war is by negotiations. The problem is that doesn't really work in a conflict like this one, a rare example of completely one-sided aggression. And to corollary to the desirable to end by negotiations bit is the need for neither side to be able to achieve all their goals by force. While it would be better if the Russian army saw sense and left Ukraine - all of Ukraine's internationally recognised borders - it may be necessary to drive them every inch of the way by force, and that is a less bad scenario than Russia holding as much as a square inch of Ukraine's internationally recognised territory. The precedent that sets would, at the bare minimum, embolden the fascists in Beijing.

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 5297
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu May 18, 2023 9:20 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 8:05 pm
Secretary Austin is a f.cking liar. Why? To protect the reputations of others as Defence Minister Lambrecht did when she inhibited the availability of stored Leopard tanks?

It's not two months since he claimed it would take eighteen months to convert Ukrainian pilots onto F-16s.

The USAFs assessment - conducted before that lie by Austin - was four months.

So why did Austin lie to Congress about how long it would take? The time it would take obviously isn't the reason, but the real reason is clearly something the administration are ashamed of. Are they still believing Russia's b.llsh.t about so-called "red lines"? Storm Shadow was a redline. They threatened a military response. Then a few days later they claimed it wouldn't really make much difference - the usual thing they can't respond and don't want to admit that they can't respond. Modern western MBTs were a "red line" right up until they were sent, then magically no better than a T-62 meaning Russia didn't have to conduct a response they couldn't survive. HIMARS was a "red line" right up until they were sent, then magically no better than a BM-27 Uragan meaning Russia didn't have to conduct a response they couldn't survive.

That assessment ended mid March. Ukrainians could have been in F-16s in two months time if the US foreign policy establishment were not packed to the brim with cowards. They are - per reports - still taking seriously Russian b.llsh.t about "red lines" while our own government is setting them, with the likes of Sullivan emitting nonsense about "world war three" as if Russia - unable to capture the 56th biggest city in Ukraine after nine and a half months - could be a threat to the USA.

Why does it matter? Well, Russian aircraft still threaten Ukraine, especially with glide bombs. AIM-120 AMRAAMs from the late C-block or D-block would deny them the ability to do that without exposing the F-16s to much danger. They'd be able to push the Su-34 SEAD patrols well back past the border to protect Ukrainian air defence. They'd be able to launch standoff munitions against Russian logistics and C3. And while I believe AAMs were used recently, anything that tries to launch a western AAM from a Warsaw Pact aircraft will be a lashup less effective than just launching them from a western aircraft.

There seems to be an attitude that's developed that the best way to end a war is by negotiations. The problem is that doesn't really work in a conflict like this one, a rare example of completely one-sided aggression. And to corollary to the desirable to end by negotiations bit is the need for neither side to be able to achieve all their goals by force. While it would be better if the Russian army saw sense and left Ukraine - all of Ukraine's internationally recognised borders - it may be necessary to drive them every inch of the way by force, and that is a less bad scenario than Russia holding as much as a square inch of Ukraine's internationally recognised territory. The precedent that sets would, at the bare minimum, embolden the fascists in Beijing.
Well said

And it's worth adding that China is watching this with its eyes on Taiwan
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7077
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 19, 2023 5:07 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 8:05 pm
Secretary Austin is a f.cking liar. Why? To protect the reputations of others as Defence Minister Lambrecht did when she inhibited the availability of stored Leopard tanks?

It's not two months since he claimed it would take eighteen months to convert Ukrainian pilots onto F-16s.

The USAFs assessment - conducted before that lie by Austin - was four months.
The two sources refer to different things. I don't know whether Austin's 18 month assessment was correct or not. But training pilots is only part of the capability necessary for Ukraine to operate F16s.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 19, 2023 8:47 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 19, 2023 5:07 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu May 18, 2023 8:05 pm
Secretary Austin is a f.cking liar. Why? To protect the reputations of others as Defence Minister Lambrecht did when she inhibited the availability of stored Leopard tanks?

It's not two months since he claimed it would take eighteen months to convert Ukrainian pilots onto F-16s.

The USAFs assessment - conducted before that lie by Austin - was four months.
The two sources refer to different things. I don't know whether Austin's 18 month assessment was correct or not. But training pilots is only part of the capability necessary for Ukraine to operate F16s.
The USA has so consistently underestimated the abilities of Ukrainians that it comes across as either bigotry, or utter pig-headed stupidity on their part. Every damn time Ukrainians train on a system they exceed expectations - that's because expectations are set far too low. Ukrainian pilots have survived more than a year of war against a technologically more advanced and better equipped enemy - that's something US pilots have not done in the history of the USAF. As for ground crews, if people can keep ageing MiGs running when the only source of spare parts is other ageing MiGs, they're probably pretty good at being ground crews. Add to that an intensive training course while pilots are trained and the admixture of foreign volunteers who already have the relevant experience, and on top of that the ability to move any flyable airframe out of the country for work in a NATO country, that issue is pretty much sorted. As for runways, F-16s have flown from Ukrainian runways before.

The current administration exaggerated the time it would take to get Ukrainians on F-16s because they didn't want to be under political pressure to provide them.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 19, 2023 1:03 pm

So the new theory as to what downed that strike package over Bryansk is a Patriot battery. It's got the range, but it would require a very aggressive fairly forward deployment of a very valuable missile system and, crucially, one that can't be hidden because of its extremely powerful radar emissions. The main reason I didn't seriously consider a Patriot battery is that would mean moving it nearer to the frontline and also away from a major Ukrainian city, leaving it relatively undefended in the short term.

On the other hand, if Ukrainian air defences were forewarned of what was clearly a planned attack by the Russians, they might move one. It didn't exactly have to go within observation or artillery range of the border. And perhaps the Russian massed Kinzhal salvo aimed at Kyiv's Patriot battery was a response to their strike package getting schwacked over Bryansk oblast.

As for my stuff about missile length, I can think of two possibilities. The first is that a US official has talked about a Patriot downing a Russian jet at very long range. That could mean a coordinated attack by the Patriot battery and a Ukrainian jet that finished off the helicopters - the image I used is of the helicopter being hit. The other is that the missile length is distorted in the image by the way mobile phone cameras work - if they scan line by line, and the missile crossed between two lines as it was photographed, it could, due to its speed, appear substantially too long or too short. And other than the length detail, anything launched by a Patriot would fit the bill, coming in horizontally and with the motor burned out and a heavy warhead.

Of course it's also possible the Russian jet downed at long range was a different and otherwise undocumented event. A Patriot battery positioned to defend Kyiv could hit out well into southern Belarus in an anti-aircraft role. There's several reasons a Russian jet might be up there, including launching one of the Kinzhals in that salvo the other day or keeping in position to attack Ukrainian jets that might seek to shoot down the cruise missile component of the strike - that would be a MiG-31 in both cases - or potentially a Russian anti-radiation missile shooter might be there to try and suppress Ukrainian defences.

Until we get more information, worth keeping an open mind.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7077
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 19, 2023 2:57 pm

Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... on-ukraine

Detailed assessment of how Russian forces have learned and adapted.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 19, 2023 3:09 pm

Looks like America's been dragged onboard re: jets, but why did it have to take so long? Why the f.cking dishonesty?

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 19, 2023 3:26 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 19, 2023 2:57 pm
Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... on-ukraine

Detailed assessment of how Russian forces have learned and adapted.
There was some interesting discussion of that started by Partizan Oleg (@partizan_oleg on Twitter, who's done good work on Oryx documenting percentages, Russian tank reserves etc). Russians are on course to fire substantially fewer shells than last year, yet even this year's firing rate, which secured limited advances in the Bakhmut sector and basically nothing else so far this year, is three times Russia's production rate.

Russia's production rate is no better than parity compared to what Ukraine will be receiving, and that's bad for Russia - Ukraine's better at recon and communications, meaning its shells are more likely to hit where they are needed. Ukraine has increasing quantities of higher quality artillery, meaning their shells can hit deeper into Russian territory and are more likely to hit. Ukraine is receiving various advanced shells, too - base bleed shells for greater range and accuracy, M982 Excaliburs to accurately strike and at greater range, and SMArt155s to aggressively hunt for armour. And on top of that, Ukraine is used to fighting against a shell disadvantage and Russia is not. Russia's advance in Bakhmut has only been enabled by the systematic destruction of everywhere that could be a defensive position. That is cripplingly profligate with ammunition - and barrel wear - in proportion to what it achieves. Stanimir Dobrev characterises it as a war of explosives against concrete - and unless explosives are used very carefully, concrete tends to win.

This also isn't taking into account the destruction of artillery pieces, but as Ukrainian counter-battery fire gets more and more effective, that'll be taking its toll. That's the advantage of having better communications, so artillery can react in time and shell the enemy artillery, not the position they were hours ago. That's the advantage of having pieces that can accurately hit on the first round or two - with guided shells if necessary. That's the advantage of having longer ranged pieces that allow counter-battery assets to sit out of range of the guns they are targetting.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 19, 2023 7:22 pm

Some big hits on occupied Mariupol, Russian bloggers and OSINT geolocators placing them at the airport. Also talk of helicopters being moved there. It's out of reach of conventional HIMARS, but there's other things that can reach that far. Judging by the size of those blasts, could even be Storm Shadow.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 19, 2023 9:18 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 19, 2023 7:22 pm
Some big hits on occupied Mariupol, Russian bloggers and OSINT geolocators placing them at the airport. Also talk of helicopters being moved there. It's out of reach of conventional HIMARS, but there's other things that can reach that far. Judging by the size of those blasts, could even be Storm Shadow.
Or possibly not the airport, but a former Ukrainian command centre and bunker. Could well be a command centre for Russia now, and Storm Shadow's BROACH warhead is explicitly designed for that sort of target with a precursor charge to blast soil out of the way to ensure the main charge his the structure dead on. Of course if the reports about the Russians sending a group of helicopters there earlier are correct, it could be related to the movements of a VIP, so worth keeping an eye on.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 20, 2023 9:13 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 19, 2023 9:18 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 19, 2023 7:22 pm
Some big hits on occupied Mariupol, Russian bloggers and OSINT geolocators placing them at the airport. Also talk of helicopters being moved there. It's out of reach of conventional HIMARS, but there's other things that can reach that far. Judging by the size of those blasts, could even be Storm Shadow.
Or possibly not the airport, but a former Ukrainian command centre and bunker. Could well be a command centre for Russia now, and Storm Shadow's BROACH warhead is explicitly designed for that sort of target with a precursor charge to blast soil out of the way to ensure the main charge his the structure dead on. Of course if the reports about the Russians sending a group of helicopters there earlier are correct, it could be related to the movements of a VIP, so worth keeping an eye on.
Might - mind you I said might - have been an attempt to schwack Shoigu.

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2933
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Sat May 20, 2023 9:48 am

Why take him out when he’s doing such a good job?

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 20, 2023 12:50 pm

It looks like this might be it for the defence of Bakhmut itself. Reports are that the last Ukrainian troops have pulled out after a nine and a half month defence which soaked up a huge proportion of Russia's resources and left them stalled on every other front.

Bakhmut itself is just east of an area of high ground. At present, Ukrainian counterattacks - not the counter-offensive, which should more properly just be called an offensive anyway - have pushed the Russians back substantially on the flanks, more or less clearing them off the heights south of the city and also achieving substantial success north of the city to the point that the actual net territorial change, if the reports of Ukraine withdrawing from the city are true, actually favours Ukraine over the last week or so. If Ukraine can finish clearing the Russians off the heights north of the city - which may have already occurred - then Bakhmut's going to be a very expensive place to occupy.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 20, 2023 3:09 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 20, 2023 12:50 pm
It looks like this might be it for the defence of Bakhmut itself. Reports are that the last Ukrainian troops have pulled out after a nine and a half month defence which soaked up a huge proportion of Russia's resources and left them stalled on every other front.

Bakhmut itself is just east of an area of high ground. At present, Ukrainian counterattacks - not the counter-offensive, which should more properly just be called an offensive anyway - have pushed the Russians back substantially on the flanks, more or less clearing them off the heights south of the city and also achieving substantial success north of the city to the point that the actual net territorial change, if the reports of Ukraine withdrawing from the city are true, actually favours Ukraine over the last week or so. If Ukraine can finish clearing the Russians off the heights north of the city - which may have already occurred - then Bakhmut's going to be a very expensive place to occupy.
For context here's a topographic map. Blue arrows represent the direction Ukrainian counterattacks are moving in. These correspond well with the generally very accurate and quite conservative DeepState map, and there's rumours these counterattacks have gone a little further than that. There's also counterattacks from the north in the area of Sacco i Vantsetti that don't fit onto this map. The only high ground the Russians hold is the area round Paraskoviivka

Image

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7077
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 22, 2023 9:05 am

A widely shared thread on the F16s: https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/stat ... 62753?s=20

I'm not enough of an expert to assess it, but usually sensible people are recommending it.

User avatar
dyqik
Princess POW
Posts: 7562
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by dyqik » Mon May 22, 2023 10:26 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 20, 2023 3:09 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat May 20, 2023 12:50 pm
It looks like this might be it for the defence of Bakhmut itself. Reports are that the last Ukrainian troops have pulled out after a nine and a half month defence which soaked up a huge proportion of Russia's resources and left them stalled on every other front.

Bakhmut itself is just east of an area of high ground. At present, Ukrainian counterattacks - not the counter-offensive, which should more properly just be called an offensive anyway - have pushed the Russians back substantially on the flanks, more or less clearing them off the heights south of the city and also achieving substantial success north of the city to the point that the actual net territorial change, if the reports of Ukraine withdrawing from the city are true, actually favours Ukraine over the last week or so. If Ukraine can finish clearing the Russians off the heights north of the city - which may have already occurred - then Bakhmut's going to be a very expensive place to occupy.
For context here's a topographic map. Blue arrows represent the direction Ukrainian counterattacks are moving in. These correspond well with the generally very accurate and quite conservative DeepState map, and there's rumours these counterattacks have gone a little further than that. There's also counterattacks from the north in the area of Sacco i Vantsetti that don't fit onto this map. The only high ground the Russians hold is the area round Paraskoviivka
Given the topography, leaving the city itself while moving towards encircling it could be a tactical move to allow the capture of any Russian forces that move forward to occupy it

Imrael
Snowbonk
Posts: 510
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:59 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Mon May 22, 2023 11:00 am

Does anyone understand whats happening around Belgorod?

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 22, 2023 12:51 pm

Imrael wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 11:00 am
Does anyone understand whats happening around Belgorod?
A small unit of Russians working for Ukraine's GUR have gone for a little jaunt across the border. They've done this before, it isn't likely to be anything other than a photo-op and demonstration of how weak Russian defences are in that area. Perhaps the goal is to cause enough panic that Belgorod's residents demand forces moved there to protect them (and thus away from areas that matter).

Either that or the Bilhorod People's Republic has called for aid in throwing off the yoke of the Russian occupier.

ETA: Just to be clear for the pearl clutchers that are out there, this isn't some kind of "escalation" or "aggression"

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7077
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 22, 2023 1:22 pm

Yes, this is similar to the attack on the Kremlin. Its importance is symbolic - Russia can't even defend its borders. A material consequence may be that Moscow shifts men and equipment away from the front line to defend border checkpoints.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7077
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 22, 2023 1:40 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 1:22 pm
Yes, this is similar to the attack on the Kremlin. Its importance is symbolic - Russia can't even defend its borders. A material consequence may be that Moscow shifts men and equipment away from the front line to defend border checkpoints.
Comment from War Translated: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 23553?s=20

Post Reply