Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:54 am

Imrael wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:24 am
Slightly disturbed by this https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... 72692733=1, which I've seen from a number of sources. Basically a US general saying RUssian casualties around 100,000 and Ukrainian probably similar.


While its hard to applaud casualties, I'd been assuming and hoping that the Ukrainian forces were achieving a favourable ratio overall.
In general, attackers suffer more casualties than defenders. Many of the battlefields resemble the later phases of WW1. Even in armored vehicles, troops out in the open and advancing are much more vulnerable than those sheltering in trenches and dugouts. Ukraine has been on the offensive for months whereas Russian attacks have been limited.

I have no idea whether the estimate is correct, but if casualties are roughly equal that seems a good outcome given how much attacking Ukraine has done.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:00 am

TopBadger wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:40 am
So - lets assume for a moment that Russia has indeed pulled out of Kherson and now is only on the Crimean side* of the Dnipro. What is Ukraine's next move?

The Russians will be relying on the river to form part of their defensive line and pummel units that cross. I'd expect Ukraine would need to bring more artillery to bear to push Russian Artillery out of range of the landing areas before crossing en-masse.
Contested river crossings are always difficult. Attempting one of the lower Dnipro is utter madness, unless a sufficiently intact bridge could be captured, a la Ludendorff Bridge.
Another approach would be for the Ukrainians to use the river as a defensive line, put counter batteries in Kherson to keep Russian artillery at arms length from the city, and swing troops around via Zaphorzhzhia to push south to Melitopol. This avoids having to cross the river under fire and taking Melitopol severs the last supply lines to Russian's south of Kherson (including Crimea) which might force mass surrenders rather than mass fighting.
This is where the long range precision fires become really relevant. This map from DefMon3 illustrates it neatly.

Image

Unfortunately, M31 can't hit everywhere it is needed to. The Russians appear to have moved their command and aviation favilities out of Chaplynka to the location marked on the map precisely because of this. MGM-140 would put it - and any remaining supply routes out of Crimea and indeed the repair work on the Kerch Strait bridge in danger. Ground launched Small-Diameter Bombs, which have apparently been requested by Ukraine, would cover that whole southern strip, but not reach so far into Crimea.

In general, it isn't sensible to credit major successes to just one weapon system, and that is still true here, however I've seldom seen a contribution more significant than that made by GMLRS - the M142 HIMARS and the M270 MLRS firing M31 rockets have been the decisive factor in Kherson.
*left bank? I thought it was right bank but perhaps I'm not looking at the banks from the correct orientation
Think like the river.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:05 am

Quick update on what's going on on the ground.

Snihurivka definitely liberated. Ukrainians appear to have got a foothold in the town two days ago. Given the degree to which the Russian line was anchored on Snihurivka, this may have been the event that triggered the final announcement of retreat.

Kalynivske has also been liberated, meaning the Ukrainians are advancing on both banks of the Inhulets.

Heavy strikes reported overnight against the Dnipro crossings. The barge bridge next to the Antonivsky is wrecked and the Antonivsky is unlikely to survive traffic from heavy equipment. This means that to evacuate equipment, Russia either has to use ferries - and the assembly points have been struck before and may have been among last night's targets - or retreat via the rubble crossing over the Nova Kakhovka lock.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:27 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:35 am
Ukraine is going to suffer huge losses, with the pain lasting for generations thanks to PTSD echoing down.

The way to prevent this is to prevent wars from starting by intimidating bullies like Putin. And when they start, end them fast and hard. Supply as much as you can dare, rather than the pathetic western handouts. The West is responsible for a proportion of these casualties, in a knowing and immoral way.

This is what Plodder never understands. A Russian tank blowing up is a shortening of war and a reduction in suffering.
Absolutely
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 1:31 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:05 am
Snihurivka definitely liberated. Ukrainians appear to have got a foothold in the town two days ago. Given the degree to which the Russian line was anchored on Snihurivka, this may have been the event that triggered the final announcement of retreat.
Andrew Perpetua, who has his finger on the pulse pretty well, places the start of the Snihurivka attack a day earlier than that, on the 7th. And it was contested, not just walking into an abandoned stronghold.

Given what we know, then, I think Russia had planned a withdrawal for a while, but were holding on for political reasons until their hand was forced, and perhaps hoping something might turn the tide in their favour in the meantime. The loss of Snihurivka, though, opened up the possibility of a Ukrainian attack down the Inhulets to split Kherson city and the Dnipro crossing at Nova Kakhovka, and so forced the Russians' hand.

Now we have confirmation of the liberation of Kyseliva and Borozens'ke, and footage from Dudchany where the Ukrainians are out in the open on the damaged causeway, indicating no nearby Russian threat. The Ukrainians are advancing on all fronts, and the Russians have not yet all evacuated. Hopefully the pressure will be enough to lead to some of the equipment or better yet some of the troops falling into Ukrainian hands.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:18 pm

So tired today I'd totally forgotten the importance of Borozens'ke - it's the fortified position that stopped the last major advance in the Kherson area. That means there's little to prevent an advance from Dudchany.

Since then we've had news of liberations of Pavlivka, near Snihurivka in the north/Inhulets river area of the theatre, and Stanislav, in the west.

It's hard to keep up with all the liberations, but they are capturing equipment - including an intact T-90, Russia's most advanced breed of tank and not something they'd want to leave behind.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:48 pm

Chkalove liberated now. Ukraine could now fire on the crossing at Nova Kakhovka with their longer ranged conventional artillery (2S7 Pions, Caesars, Krabs, PzH2000s) and with exotic shells (M982) from their more conventional 155mm pieces.

If Ukrainian forces can reach Beryslav/the north side of the Kakhovka dam before the Russians have finished evacuating chickening out and pissing off home, it won't go well for the Russians.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Thu Nov 10, 2022 4:04 pm

Yep - there are a number of blue dots with flags on the interactive map that weren't there a little while ago:

https://liveuamap.com/
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:34 pm

Kachkarkivka. That's on the banks of the Dnipro reservoir, south of Dudchany. Confirms advance is on every part of the front.

I've seen some evidence of defensive preparations around Beryslav, so it could be the Russians will try and fight a rearguard action while evacuating.

They've also been blowing bridges. I expect they'll do this to what's left of the bridges over the Dnipro.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:38 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 4:04 pm
Yep - there are a number of blue dots with flags on the interactive map that weren't there a little while ago:

https://liveuamap.com/
I think there's a mistake. There's an exceptionally advanced pin at Tomaryne, but I saw news of Tamaryne being liberated, that's not near Beryslav in Kherson oblast, it's near Snihurivka, and it's in Mykolaiv oblast.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:01 pm

Less than 100% source and can't be certain the picture is recent, but claims of liberation of Novokairy.

And there's more solid confirmation of Tamaryne and Chkalove. That means the multiple Ukrainian advances are linking up.

It also means the M14 from Kherson city to Nova Kakhovka - the best line of retreat for units in that area - is in range of Ukrainian conventional tube artillery.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by plodder » Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:39 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:35 am
Ukraine is going to suffer huge losses, with the pain lasting for generations thanks to PTSD echoing down.

The way to prevent this is to prevent wars from starting by intimidating bullies like Putin. And when they start, end them fast and hard. Supply as much as you can dare, rather than the pathetic western handouts. The West is responsible for a proportion of these casualties, in a knowing and immoral way.

This is what Plodder never understands. A Russian tank blowing up is a shortening of war and a reduction in suffering.
err what I don't understand is why comfy Home Counties tw.ts get so hyped on the gory detail. Actually I do think I understand it, but every time I say it the post gets reported.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:54 pm

plodder wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:39 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:35 am
Ukraine is going to suffer huge losses, with the pain lasting for generations thanks to PTSD echoing down.

The way to prevent this is to prevent wars from starting by intimidating bullies like Putin. And when they start, end them fast and hard. Supply as much as you can dare, rather than the pathetic western handouts. The West is responsible for a proportion of these casualties, in a knowing and immoral way.

This is what Plodder never understands. A Russian tank blowing up is a shortening of war and a reduction in suffering.
err what I don't understand is why comfy Home Counties tw.ts get so hyped on the gory detail. Actually I do think I understand it, but every time I say it the post gets reported.
That's because you don't in the slightest bit understand it, but do like to make extremely and deliberately offensive comments.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Sciolus » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:05 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:13 pm
Well, yes, the ultimate end is when Putin carries out his top floor window manoeuvre. This humiliation must be a step along that path.
That will be the end of one phase, but unlikely to be the ultimate end. His successor is likely to be worse.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Herainestold » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:35 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:05 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:13 pm
Well, yes, the ultimate end is when Putin carries out his top floor window manoeuvre. This humiliation must be a step along that path.
That will be the end of one phase, but unlikely to be the ultimate end. His successor is likely to be worse.
Putin is in no danger of defenestration. The danger for Putin is if he admits defeat. So he won't do it.
He will push the big red button before he admits defeat.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster, Russian people are not.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:56 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:35 pm
Sciolus wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:05 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:13 pm
Well, yes, the ultimate end is when Putin carries out his top floor window manoeuvre. This humiliation must be a step along that path.
That will be the end of one phase, but unlikely to be the ultimate end. His successor is likely to be worse.
Putin is in no danger of defenestration. The danger for Putin is if he admits defeat. So he won't do it.
He will push the big red button before he admits defeat.
f.ck off tankie scum.

For those of you who aren't tankie scum, who deserve reassurance; American weapons have hit targets in Russia. Russia's been driven out of multiple annexed areas. The Kerch Bridge has been crippled.

And not only have the Russians not done anything at all with their nuclear arsenal, they've actually stopped making the very vague hints they had been making.

This is likely because the USA and the rest of NATO have conveyed to Russia what going nuclear means - it doesn't mean nuclear escalation or retaliation. But it does get a response - probably a conventional strike that the Russian military won't survive.

If nuclear weapons were a win button, or if Putin were thinking of using them, he wouldn't have taken the colossal political risk of mobilisation, nor would he tolerate Prigozhin and Kadyrov trying to create private armies.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:27 pm

Blahodatne and Myrolubivka liberated. I assume that's the one near Kyselivka, not one of the many other Myrolubivkas in Ukraine.

More evidence coming in for Novokairy, so there's not no natural barriers between Ukrainian troops and the Kakhovsky dam.

Explosions in Kherson city. Some claims - mostly from Russian sources - that Ukrainian advance elements are entering the city.

It's not clear how many Russians are left, but those left within Kherson city will be unlikely to have a good escape route to the east. They are lef with walking over the bridges, or the pontoon ferries. One would expect Ukraine to target those, as it is important to keep the Russians from evacuating heavy equipment, and ideally to force troops to surrender instead of escaping too.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:00 pm

Russian sources talking about a lot of attacks on their crossing points over the Dnipro. Much panic.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by JQH » Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:15 pm

plodder wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:39 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:35 am
Ukraine is going to suffer huge losses, with the pain lasting for generations thanks to PTSD echoing down.

The way to prevent this is to prevent wars from starting by intimidating bullies like Putin. And when they start, end them fast and hard. Supply as much as you can dare, rather than the pathetic western handouts. The West is responsible for a proportion of these casualties, in a knowing and immoral way.

This is what Plodder never understands. A Russian tank blowing up is a shortening of war and a reduction in suffering.
err what I don't understand is why comfy Home Counties tw.ts get so hyped on the gory detail. Actually I do think I understand it, but every time I say it the post gets reported.
I don't recall any one getting "hyped on the gory detail". Maybe we were reading different posts. Or reading different things into the same posts. I was reading attempts to explain the properties of modern weapons. You appeared to be reading ... something else which frankly was more a reflection of your mental processes than those of your target.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:29 am

A withdrawal would have been challenging for anyone. So not surprising it's going very badly for Russia.

Can't expect conscripts to hold position while everyone else flees. Can't expect to get heavy equipment across the remnants of the crossing. Can't expect humans to remain calm when they see artillery falling on their escape route.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:34 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:29 am
A withdrawal would have been challenging for anyone. So not surprising it's going very badly for Russia.

Can't expect conscripts to hold position while everyone else flees. Can't expect to get heavy equipment across the remnants of the crossing. Can't expect humans to remain calm when they see artillery falling on their escape route.
Breaking contact is really, really difficult. It's easy to decide to start fighting. It's very hard to decide to stop and get out of the fight, because the other side doesn't want to make it easy, and gets a lot of say in the matter.

There's quite a bit of fog of war at the moment. Some of the panicked claims on the Russian side seem unlikely. We've seen that before - they start losing and there's Ukrainian recon groups in every treeline, even when the nearest Ukrainians are tens of km away - but at the same time it looks like the withdrawal is going badly, and the Russians are getting mauled while trying to escape. Most Russian sources talking about what's happening - that means Telegram channels and milbloggers, not the Kremlin or state media - are talking about thousands of Russians unlikely to make it back across the Dnipro.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:00 am

To add to their issues, apparently the Russian air defence has been pulled back to Chaplynka, presumably to keep it safe from HARM. That means that Ukrainian drones - which can see in the dark perhaps even better than they can by day - have free reign to observe the the Russian withdrawal. It's unlikely that even Bayraktars will be doing much actual attacking - they only carry two munitions each, though they could be very useful if a specific, moving target needs to be hit - but the effect they can have by spotting for artillery is quite frankly terrifying.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:29 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:34 am
lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:29 am
A withdrawal would have been challenging for anyone. So not surprising it's going very badly for Russia.

Can't expect conscripts to hold position while everyone else flees. Can't expect to get heavy equipment across the remnants of the crossing. Can't expect humans to remain calm when they see artillery falling on their escape route.
Breaking contact is really, really difficult. It's easy to decide to start fighting. It's very hard to decide to stop and get out of the fight, because the other side doesn't want to make it easy, and gets a lot of say in the matter.

There's quite a bit of fog of war at the moment. Some of the panicked claims on the Russian side seem unlikely. We've seen that before - they start losing and there's Ukrainian recon groups in every treeline, even when the nearest Ukrainians are tens of km away - but at the same time it looks like the withdrawal is going badly, and the Russians are getting mauled while trying to escape. Most Russian sources talking about what's happening - that means Telegram channels and milbloggers, not the Kremlin or state media - are talking about thousands of Russians unlikely to make it back across the Dnipro.
There are reports that a few days ago, the Russians were destroying boats. Which makes no sense, as presumably they could have just taken them to the left bank.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:34 am

Antonivsky Road and Rail bridges both appear to have been blown.

This is why the "maybe the Ukrainians were trying to just damage the bridges to use them later" stuff was so much nonsense. The reason they didn't fully cut those bridges was because they did not have the weapons to do it, and the west did not supply weapons that could do it. Bridges are pretty tough things.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:53 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:34 am
Antonivsky Road and Rail bridges both appear to have been blown.

This is why the "maybe the Ukrainians were trying to just damage the bridges to use them later" stuff was so much nonsense. The reason they didn't fully cut those bridges was because they did not have the weapons to do it, and the west did not supply weapons that could do it. Bridges are pretty tough things.
Road

Image

Rail

Image

Both images via Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUk)

IF there are Russians left in Kherson city, and it could well be there aren't many, they are in the deepest of sh.t.

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