Blyatskrieg

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:19 pm

bjn wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:26 pm

Your speculation could be right, threaten a flank and keep some number of Russians tied down. But logistically it would be difficult to break out of, so can’t be a serious threat, which a Russian commander should know.
I think EACL is on the money... Landings at the Kinburn spit are a helpful distraction that will keep the Russians on their toes.

Ukraine can take an empirical approach - if Russian commanders don't think it's a serious threat and do not take any action then they may be able to beef their forces up and raid between and amongst the lines - potentially creating havoc within Russian forces looking at Kherson. Russia may need to draw their artillery back further as a result - indeed that may be the point. Simply to encourage Russia to move artillery out of range of Kherson rather than losing it.

However, if Russian commanders are worried about their poorly trained troops collapsing like a flan in a cupboard at the sight of Ukrainian patrols then they'll need to reinforce that area, leaving them weaker somewhere else.

Of course - we won't know how this plays out for some time yet.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:45 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:19 pm
bjn wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:26 pm

Your speculation could be right, threaten a flank and keep some number of Russians tied down. But logistically it would be difficult to break out of, so can’t be a serious threat, which a Russian commander should know.
I think EACL is on the money... Landings at the Kinburn spit are a helpful distraction that will keep the Russians on their toes.
They don't even need to land, necessarily, and certainly don't need to linger. Just expressing a willingness to do so will pin some Russians in western left-bank Kherson.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:53 am

ChrisO thread on Kinburn https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... _RsTTtL1ig

Argues that the operation is to deny Russia it’s use as a base for launching drones and missiles (as it’s the most westerly point controlled by Russia.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:54 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:53 am
ChrisO thread on Kinburn https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... _RsTTtL1ig

Argues that the operation is to deny Russia it’s use as a base for launching drones and missiles (as it’s the most westerly point controlled by Russia.
Could be, certainly. It's similar to what Dyqik was alluding to. But we can't be certain about anything relating to Kinburn right now. The footage emerging of troops crossing the gulf indicates that either Ukraine has a discipline problem, or they want the operation to be visible. I'm leaning towards the latter, though I wouldn't completely rule out the former. Apparently, Telegram metadata is showing some Ukrainian users in the area of the spit part of the Kinburn peninsula, which is another example of why you should ban your troops from using social media while deployed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:55 am

bjn wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:26 pm
It’s only a few kilometres across the Dnipro to Ukrainian held territory, so they can shell the whole peninsula with a 152mm howitzer from across the straight, no need for the expensive long range stuff.

Your speculation could be right, threaten a flank and keep some number of Russians tied down. But logistically it would be difficult to break out of, so can’t be a serious threat, which a Russian commander should know.
A breakout would be extremely difficult if opposed, but it forces the Russians to oppose it. If they don't, then a breakout is a lot more possible, and a major breakout could potentially open up easier logistics options, or even do what they did in Kharkiv oblast to an extent, and use captured materiel.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:06 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:54 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:53 am
ChrisO thread on Kinburn https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... _RsTTtL1ig

Argues that the operation is to deny Russia it’s use as a base for launching drones and missiles (as it’s the most westerly point controlled by Russia.
Could be, certainly. It's similar to what Dyqik was alluding to. But we can't be certain about anything relating to Kinburn right now. The footage emerging of troops crossing the gulf indicates that either Ukraine has a discipline problem, or they want the operation to be visible. I'm leaning towards the latter, though I wouldn't completely rule out the former. Apparently, Telegram metadata is showing some Ukrainian users in the area of the spit part of the Kinburn peninsula, which is another example of why you should ban your troops from using social media while deployed.
Maybe it's a landing by the Ukrainian equivalent of the FUSAG?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:12 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:06 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:54 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:53 am
ChrisO thread on Kinburn https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... _RsTTtL1ig

Argues that the operation is to deny Russia it’s use as a base for launching drones and missiles (as it’s the most westerly point controlled by Russia.
Could be, certainly. It's similar to what Dyqik was alluding to. But we can't be certain about anything relating to Kinburn right now. The footage emerging of troops crossing the gulf indicates that either Ukraine has a discipline problem, or they want the operation to be visible. I'm leaning towards the latter, though I wouldn't completely rule out the former. Apparently, Telegram metadata is showing some Ukrainian users in the area of the spit part of the Kinburn peninsula, which is another example of why you should ban your troops from using social media while deployed.
Maybe it's a landing by the Ukrainian equivalent of the FUSAG?
It's possible, yes. It's a lot harder to pull of that kind of deception these days, but not impossible.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:17 pm

So Kinburn's currently looking like a raid, at most (as I noted it probably would be upthread).

And there's no evidence of any crossing further upstream in Kherson oblast. This isn't a surprise; it would be an exceptionally difficult operation.

However, Russia does appear to have pulled troops back from the area along the Dnipro, presumably to avoid them getting shelled.

Russia's also "evacuated civilians" from Kreminna, where there probably weren't very many civilians to begin with. It's possible we may see further Ukrainian advances on the Svatove/Kreminna front.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:57 pm

Russian losses from the Kherson campaign are coming through now, and look quite severe. Some of these were in the retreat, some earlier. We've also now got people finally looking into the claims of Russian helicopters being destroyed at Chornobaivka in early march. While a later attack was well documented, that wasn't the first one, but much of the OSINT community sneered at the claims - while exaggerated, it looks like they'd lost a minimum of half a dozen helicopters in earlier strikes than the famously documented one.

I'm mostly talking about materiel losses here, however, bodies washing up on the banks of the Dnipro are a grim reminder that the withdrawal did not go entirely to plan.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:08 pm

Dzhankoi - reportedly explosions there. There is footage, but it's at night, so all it has is audio and a bit of flickering light. This means it cannot be confirmed it is Dzhankoi.

Dzhankoi's been struck before, though, and it's a really important area for Russia's operations in the south. It's a bottleneck in the railways and the location of storage and aviation facilities. Even now, with the liberation of right bank Kherson, it's still 140+km from the frontline, so it is significant that it is hit. Additionally, oil facilities within Russia were apparently hit with a drone a similar distance into Russia, but I'm not up to tracking down the info on that right now.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:05 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:08 pm
Dzhankoi - reportedly explosions there. There is footage, but it's at night, so all it has is audio and a bit of flickering light. This means it cannot be confirmed it is Dzhankoi.

Dzhankoi's been struck before, though, and it's a really important area for Russia's operations in the south. It's a bottleneck in the railways and the location of storage and aviation facilities. Even now, with the liberation of right bank Kherson, it's still 140+km from the frontline, so it is significant that it is hit. Additionally, oil facilities within Russia were apparently hit with a drone a similar distance into Russia, but I'm not up to tracking down the info on that right now.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu Nov 17, 2022 8:38 am

DefMon3, even
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:28 pm


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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:09 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:28 pm
Here's what air defence doing
More interceptions. Two cruise missiles this time in quick succession.

IRIS-T, reportedly

This is the thing with western aid - German, in this case, but it applies across the board - without this system, things would be a lot worse, so clearly, the western aid is helping. Yet the decision to provide this system occurred in August. The first one started operation in October, and the others haven't arrived yet. That decision back in February or, at a pinch, March, would mean Ukraine wouldn't be in such a desparate position against Russian attacks on the infrastructure required to support civilian life.

Because the big story here is not what happened on the Polish border. It's Russia's very deliberate efforts to make Ukraine uninhabitable - to kill or displace many millions - this winter.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:12 pm

Likely that a Russian loitering munition hit a Russian decoy radar: https://twitter.com/johnb_schneider/sta ... 1ycMvDlIKQ

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 18, 2022 3:29 pm

I've previously posted about reports of Russian troops changing into civilians clothes, and evidence in the form of abandoned uniforms.

Now we have a Russian soldier in civilian clothes detained in Kherson (I've seen reports that suggest a number of others, but this link refers only to one.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Sun Nov 20, 2022 7:47 am

Reports that a Russian colonel with “close ties to Putin” has committed suicide, using four guns and five bullets.
A bit churlish

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:04 am

Grumble wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 7:47 am
Reports that a Russian colonel with “close ties to Putin” has committed suicide, using four guns and five bullets.
Perhaps the upstairs windows were painted shut.

If the next one could be just a little closer to Putin, maybe he'll get caught in the crossfire.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 22, 2022 6:49 am

Ukraine is talking aout liberating Kinburn again. Once again, it's surprisingly open, meaning I immediately wonder if it's a ruse.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin_B » Tue Nov 22, 2022 9:52 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 6:49 am
Ukraine is talking aout liberating Kinburn again. Once again, it's surprisingly open, meaning I immediately wonder if it's a ruse.
As Sun Tzu says: "All war is deception", so I'm all for Ukraine talking about liberating Kinburn. If it distracts Russian forces one iota then it's worth it.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:14 am

I think the southern forces will 'left-hook' around Zaporizhzhia and drive south to cut the Russian forces in two, whilst western forces continue to try to push the Russians further back.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:23 am

At the moment I'm not sure there's a really obvious thing for Ukraine to do. There are several things Ukraine could do - seize Kinburn and hold it to tie down a disproportionate number of Russians, advance on Melitopol to cut the southern grouping in two, advance on Mariupol anchoring their flank on the rivers, advance in northern Luhansk to bring GMLRS to bear on the Russian operational depth in the Donbas theatre...

I'm really not sure which is best, or indeed if another approach is best.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:35 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:23 am
At the moment I'm not sure there's a really obvious thing for Ukraine to do. There are several things Ukraine could do - seize Kinburn and hold it to tie down a disproportionate number of Russians, advance on Melitopol to cut the southern grouping in two, advance on Mariupol anchoring their flank on the rivers, advance in northern Luhansk to bring GMLRS to bear on the Russian operational depth in the Donbas theatre...

I'm really not sure which is best, or indeed if another approach is best.
Would Kinburn be vulnerable to the Russians blowing the dam? As far as I can tell, the whole peninsula is below 20m, and most is below 10m.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:39 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:35 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:23 am
At the moment I'm not sure there's a really obvious thing for Ukraine to do. There are several things Ukraine could do - seize Kinburn and hold it to tie down a disproportionate number of Russians, advance on Melitopol to cut the southern grouping in two, advance on Mariupol anchoring their flank on the rivers, advance in northern Luhansk to bring GMLRS to bear on the Russian operational depth in the Donbas theatre...

I'm really not sure which is best, or indeed if another approach is best.
Would Kinburn be vulnerable to the Russians blowing the dam? As far as I can tell, the whole peninsula is below 20m, and most is below 10m.
Think things are basically sea at that point, but I'm not a hydrologist.

In other news, Britain's been sending Brimstone 2 missiles, which have a lot more range than Brimstone 1s. They also have a dual mode seeker, allowing the target to be laser designated, but with Stugna-Ps, ground-launched Hellfires, Javelins and TOWs available for that role, I suspect it is the over-the-horizon "the Russians are over there go find them" mode that will be most useful to Ukraine.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:59 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:23 am
At the moment I'm not sure there's a really obvious thing for Ukraine to do. There are several things Ukraine could do - seize Kinburn and hold it to tie down a disproportionate number of Russians, advance on Melitopol to cut the southern grouping in two, advance on Mariupol anchoring their flank on the rivers, advance in northern Luhansk to bring GMLRS to bear on the Russian operational depth in the Donbas theatre...

I'm really not sure which is best, or indeed if another approach is best.
... which is why it was bad news when Russia surrendered Kherson. There's no longer any obvious area where Ukraine can achieve accelerated attrition.

But there's still normal attrition. We need to supply whatever weapons are best for the next stage of the war, when Russians aren't conveniently clustered around some makeshift pontoon bridge, but are more scattered into individual targets.
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