Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

I suggested over on International Skeptics forum that perhaps one of the missiles on deck had been hit but it was pointed out to me that anti ship missiles aim to hit low down, and that aside from its main armament on deck, the Moscva also had several other magazines for anti aircraft systems, its gun, torpedoes and anti submarine mortar.

Looks like they were right, now footage of Moskva burning has emerged, it looks like the hit was near the bow. Apparently, that means it was the anti-submarine ammunition that went up. There's still smoke, and very extensive damage from fire, including scorch marks around the portholes most of the way along the port side of the ship. Liferafts are all gone, suggesting they got used. No rescue ships or rescue operations are visible, my best guess is someone took the picture from a rescue ship as they retreated, having done everything they could do/were willing to do before abandoning the ship to her fate.

Re "No rescue ships or rescue operations are visible", I've seen it suggested that there was a vessel alongside to starboard, with part of her mast visible just to the right of the aft radar dome, and another structure (at a different angle to the heel of the Moskva) to the left of it.

Could be, I think there's at least a couple of photos doing the rounds, as well as a very short video clip, which does show a rescue vessel moving close to Moskva.

[Sciolus]

In a peaceful time?

Even the words special operation preclude that.

I suspect a lot may be getting lost in (automated?) translation here. For example, he might mean "I never thought [, when we were back] in a peaceful time" rather than "I never thought [that when we would be] in a peaceful time". I've seen a lot of things end up almost inverted when translated from Russian or Ukrainian. (Don't get me started on Google Translate and Turkish.)

At best, it's a translation of a news report of a woman quoting her son who had just narrowly escaped with his life. I don't think you can read too much into the exact wording.

Novaya Gazeta EU is an officially-unrelated non-Russian-honest spin-off of a respected independent Russian paper, where by "independent" I mean "forced to stop covering stuff Moscow doesn't like, we're not messing around here" (you'll have heard of Anna Politkovskaya and probably others of their murdered journalists). I'm not sure why they need to use Substack rather than their own page -- presumably easiest way to start up, their own site apparently will go live in a day or two.

[EACLucifer]

A while back I mentioned interior lines vs exterior lines, and how it gave Ukraine and advantage in redeploying troops to the east as the routes were much shorter than they were for Russia.

Though it's hard to tell, and fog of war remains in effect, there's more chatter about Ukrainian counterattacks right now than Russian attacks, though there's definitely some of the latter too.

[EACLucifer]

Ukraine has reported retaking several villages in Kharkiv oblast, including, notably, Bazaliyivka. Bazaliyivka is east of Kharkiv, a bit west of Kup'yans'k, and more or less directly between Belgorod - Russia's logistics base for it's attempt at a northern pincer - and Izyum, where that attemped pincer is fighting.

Russia appears to be attempting to envelop the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk salient with an attack south through Izyum, but in so doing they have created a salient of their own. This is fairly standard with an attempted pincer movement, and to maintain such an offensive the attacker needs to defend the flanks of the salients it creates - the Battle of Kursks is one of the most famous examples of an attacker failing to do so. The salient the Russians have formed around Izyum is largely to the west of the Oskil river. A counterattack from Kharkiv, pushing east puts a lot of pressure on the line of supply to the tip of that salient.

The Russians will have to be careful, as if that counterattack were able to push as far as the Oskil around Kup'yans'k, they could face envelopment. While that isn't that likely, the Russian withdrawal from the north of Ukraine was almost certainly due to the risk of those long thin salients they had created being enveloped, and local collapses around Trostyanets and Nova Basan were both occurred when Russian positions realised they were about to be surrounded.

It may not lead to anything significant, but it's an area to keep an eye on over the next few days and weeks.

Nathan Ruser's GIG is the best visual representation of what I'm trying to talk about in this post

Specifically, the Ukrainian salient is the blue patch in the bottom right, the Russian attempt to encircle it has in turn created a salient around Izyum - southeast of Kharkiv, which is marked KK on the map. The change over the last few days shows the development of Ukrainian operations against the flanks of that Russian salient.

[sTeamTraen]

Nathan Ruser's GIG is the best visual representation of what I'm trying to talk about in this post

Specifically, the Ukrainian salient is the blue patch in the bottom right, the Russian attempt to encircle it has in turn created a salient around Izyum - southeast of Kharkiv, which is marked KK on the map. The change over the last few days shows the development of Ukrainian operations against the flanks of that Russian salient.

These movements in which one side creates possibilities for its own encirclement by advancing in an attempts to encircle the other have always made me think of swirls in a lava lamp, for some reason. That GIF just reinforces this. There are game-theory-like paradoxes and feedback loops at one level, while at another, flesh-and-blood people are lobbing kinetic energy at each other.

[EACLucifer]

Russia's now using Tu-22M strategic bombers against Mariupol. Reportedly, their bombing sorties have increased, which I'm afraid is not surprising, as the Ukrainian airforce and air defences will have been facing attrition throughout this conflict without supply of equipment/with inadequate supply of new equipment respectively.

Those MiGs in NATO hands would have been damn useful, the Mig-29 isn't the most versatile plane, but it is perfect for the job of taking down strategic bombers.

It's not too late to get started, or will the west wait until the Russians are bombing cities with their Tu-95s as well?

[EACLucifer]

A bit over three weeks ago, Ukraine hit Russian ships moored in Berdyansk with a ballistic missile strike.

The principle victim was the Project 1171 landing ship Saratov, which burned and sank.

Two Project 775 Ropucha class landing ships were seen steaming away as fast as they could, one quite significantly on fire.

It's now emerged that the captain of the Project 775 landing ship Caesar Kunikov, Captain Aleksandr Chirva, died of injuries sustained as a result of the attack - it looks like the damage was probably quite severe, and Caesar Kunikov, though surviving the attack, might not be playing any part in the rest of the war.

[EACLucifer]

Statements by Zelenskyy and Ukrainian high command have now announced that Russia has launched its large scale offensive in the Donbas

[Woodchopper]

Ukraine has reported retaking several villages in Kharkiv oblast, including, notably, Bazaliyivka. Bazaliyivka is east of Kharkiv, a bit west of Kup'yans'k, and more or less directly between Belgorod - Russia's logistics base for it's attempt at a northern pincer - and Izyum, where that attemped pincer is fighting.

Russia appears to be attempting to envelop the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk salient with an attack south through Izyum, but in so doing they have created a salient of their own. This is fairly standard with an attempted pincer movement, and to maintain such an offensive the attacker needs to defend the flanks of the salients it creates - the Battle of Kursks is one of the most famous examples of an attacker failing to do so. The salient the Russians have formed around Izyum is largely to the west of the Oskil river. A counterattack from Kharkiv, pushing east puts a lot of pressure on the line of supply to the tip of that salient.

The Russians will have to be careful, as if that counterattack were able to push as far as the Oskil around Kup'yans'k, they could face envelopment. While that isn't that likely, the Russian withdrawal from the north of Ukraine was almost certainly due to the risk of those long thin salients they had created being enveloped, and local collapses around Trostyanets and Nova Basan were both occurred when Russian positions realised they were about to be surrounded.

It may not lead to anything significant, but it's an area to keep an eye on over the next few days and weeks.

Nathan Ruser's GIG is the best visual representation of what I'm trying to talk about in this post

Specifically, the Ukrainian salient is the blue patch in the bottom right, the Russian attempt to encircle it has in turn created a salient around Izyum - southeast of Kharkiv, which is marked KK on the map. The change over the last few days shows the development of Ukrainian operations against the flanks of that Russian salient.

I think though we should wait and see what the Ukrainian strategy is. The classic envelopment would be to try to permanently control territory they recapture and prevent Russian units from moving. However around the battle of Kyiv the Ukrainian strategy was instead to undertake deep raids which targeted Russian supply lines. Basically using light infantry for the purpose that used to be carried out by cavalry. If the Ukrainians use that strategy they’ll disengage when confronted be a stronger force. Because the real target is the supply trucks. Hit enough of them and the Russian units in the Dombas will have to retreat.

[Woodchopper]

Statements by Zelenskyy and Ukrainian high command have now announced that Russia has launched its large scale offensive in the Donbas

Yes, it looks like Russia has 76 BTGs in the Donbas and southeastern Ukraine, and another 22 north of Ukraine that are being resupplied and reconstituted. Of those 76, 12 are fighting in Mariupol. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stori ... n-ukraine/

The total of 98 is 22 fewer than in the initial invasion. Presumably BTGs were merged to keep them up to strength. Something that underlines the extent of losses.

The big question now is whether the leadership can use them more effectively.

[EACLucifer]

It's the Sun reporting it, so take with the necessary shovel of salt, but there's reports that Britain is planning to send Stormer HVM, which is an Alvis Stormer - a relatively light tracked armoured vehicle - with eight missile tubes and eight reloads that can be loaded with either Starstreak high velocity missile or the Light Modular Missile, which is more suited to small targets like drones.

It's not just the system itself - which is effective at short range anti-air - but the shift towards more effective systems in general. Hopefull, other nations will realise that if we can send Stormers, they can send things that aren't old Soviet kit too.

[EACLucifer]

Ukraine has reported retaking several villages in Kharkiv oblast, including, notably, Bazaliyivka. Bazaliyivka is east of Kharkiv, a bit west of Kup'yans'k, and more or less directly between Belgorod - Russia's logistics base for it's attempt at a northern pincer - and Izyum, where that attemped pincer is fighting.

Russia appears to be attempting to envelop the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk salient with an attack south through Izyum, but in so doing they have created a salient of their own. This is fairly standard with an attempted pincer movement, and to maintain such an offensive the attacker needs to defend the flanks of the salients it creates - the Battle of Kursks is one of the most famous examples of an attacker failing to do so. The salient the Russians have formed around Izyum is largely to the west of the Oskil river. A counterattack from Kharkiv, pushing east puts a lot of pressure on the line of supply to the tip of that salient.

The Russians will have to be careful, as if that counterattack were able to push as far as the Oskil around Kup'yans'k, they could face envelopment. While that isn't that likely, the Russian withdrawal from the north of Ukraine was almost certainly due to the risk of those long thin salients they had created being enveloped, and local collapses around Trostyanets and Nova Basan were both occurred when Russian positions realised they were about to be surrounded.

It may not lead to anything significant, but it's an area to keep an eye on over the next few days and weeks.

Nathan Ruser's GIG is the best visual representation of what I'm trying to talk about in this post

Specifically, the Ukrainian salient is the blue patch in the bottom right, the Russian attempt to encircle it has in turn created a salient around Izyum - southeast of Kharkiv, which is marked KK on the map. The change over the last few days shows the development of Ukrainian operations against the flanks of that Russian salient.

I think though we should wait and see what the Ukrainian strategy is. The classic envelopment would be to try to permanently control territory they recapture and prevent Russian units from moving. However around the battle of Kyiv the Ukrainian strategy was instead to undertake deep raids which targeted Russian supply lines. Basically using light infantry for the purpose that used to be carried out by cavalry. If the Ukrainians use that strategy they’ll disengage when confronted be a stronger force. Because the real target is the supply trucks. Hit enough of them and the Russian units in the Dombas will have to retreat.

We should wait and see, yes. I don't think the classic envelopment is the most likely at all, but the threat of it puts pressure on Russian forward positions. Though a successful full envelopment results in either the total destruction of the enveloped force - as at Stalingrad - or the threat of that creating enough pressure to end the war - as happened to Egypt in the Yom Kippur War - it's a very difficult thing to achieve. To achieve a full envelopment, Ukraine would need to hold ground all around the Russians and stop them getting in or out, which would commit them to a static defence of their positions. As you point out, around Kyiv they raided supply lines instead, and the end result was Russia reached a point where they were forced to retreat to avoid collapse or envelopment. Russian materiel losses around Kyiv were very severe, and there is no reason to suspect their personnel losses were not also severe. A repeat of that in the Donbas could cripple Russia's war machine.

[EACLucifer]

Yesterday the Italian parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of supplying arms to Ukraine, I'm not sure what the nature of those arms is yet.

[TopBadger]

Yesterday the Italian parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of supplying arms to Ukraine, I'm not sure what the nature of those arms is yet.

{insert gag on Italian tanks]

Given Ukraine needs, well, everything, I'm sure whatever Italy provides will be gratefully received.

[Martin_B]

Yesterday the Italian parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of supplying arms to Ukraine, I'm not sure what the nature of those arms is yet.

{insert gag on Italian tanks]

Given Ukraine needs, well, everything, I'm sure whatever Italy provides will be gratefully received.

[insert same gag regarding Italian army equipment never being used]
[insert different gag about the extensive use of Italian arms, though!]

[TopBadger]

Yesterday the Italian parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of supplying arms to Ukraine, I'm not sure what the nature of those arms is yet.

{insert gag on Italian tanks]

Given Ukraine needs, well, everything, I'm sure whatever Italy provides will be gratefully received.

[insert same gag regarding Italian army equipment never being used]
[insert different gag about the extensive use of Italian arms, though!]

Quite - for all the gags, Italy has a strong defence industry with some big name companies.

[EACLucifer]

So far, the big Russian offensive in the east seems to have been all preparatory bombardment, and little actual movement, though it must be remembered we do not have access to reliable information in realtime

[Allo V Psycho]

It's the Sun reporting it, so take with the necessary shovel of salt, but there's reports that Britain is planning to send Stormer HVM, which is an Alvis Stormer - a relatively light tracked armoured vehicle - with eight missile tubes and eight reloads that can be loaded with either Starstreak high velocity missile or the Light Modular Missile, which is more suited to small targets like drones.

It's not just the system itself - which is effective at short range anti-air - but the shift towards more effective systems in general. Hopefull, other nations will realise that if we can send Stormers, they can send things that aren't old Soviet kit too.

Lots of sources saying the same now e.g. https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/u ... o-ukraine/

I wonder if they are sending the ones currently deployed with the British Army (and I trust workshop and maintenance capabilities are going too). I think this family of vehicles are potentially quite capable.

[EACLucifer]

It's the Sun reporting it, so take with the necessary shovel of salt, but there's reports that Britain is planning to send Stormer HVM, which is an Alvis Stormer - a relatively light tracked armoured vehicle - with eight missile tubes and eight reloads that can be loaded with either Starstreak high velocity missile or the Light Modular Missile, which is more suited to small targets like drones.

It's not just the system itself - which is effective at short range anti-air - but the shift towards more effective systems in general. Hopefull, other nations will realise that if we can send Stormers, they can send things that aren't old Soviet kit too.

Lots of sources saying the same now e.g. https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/u ... o-ukraine/

I wonder if they are sending the ones currently deployed with the British Army (and I trust workshop and maintenance capabilities are going too). I think this family of vehicles are potentially quite capable.

Some of the other sources are suggesting that Ukrainian soldiers have been training with these systems in the UK; certainly there has been previous discussion of training Ukrainian soldiers here, so that would fit. It should be a model of how to provide Ukraine with more advanced and capable kit.

The Sun might have mentioned this, tbh, but I didn't read their actual article - they are as knowlegable and accurate on military matters as the rest of their "journalism".

[EACLucifer]

Speaking of people sending kit, apparently The Netherlands are planning to send heavier equipment, such as armoured vehicles.

[EACLucifer]

Scholz's speech did not impress. Acting as if nobody else is doing anything but sending old Soviet stuff, when Britain and America and Australia - and I expect others - are in the process of sending armoured vehicles from their own production, and still refusing to send Leopard 1 tanks that Ukraine wants to purchase, and are currently in the hands of Rheinmetall, who no doubt want to sell them.

ETA: And Romania appear to be going to send lethal aid too.

[Woodchopper]

So far, the big Russian offensive in the east seems to have been all preparatory bombardment, and little actual movement, though it must be remembered we do not have access to reliable information in realtime

Yes, there seems to have been a lot of bombardment.

This is probably a sign that Russia is adopting what for it is a more sensible strategy - to move slowly and pulverize everything in their path with artillery.

However, for that to work they need to protect their supply lines. If they can't do that then they they are as vulnerable as they were near Kyiv.

[EACLucifer]

So far, the big Russian offensive in the east seems to have been all preparatory bombardment, and little actual movement, though it must be remembered we do not have access to reliable information in realtime

Yes, there seems to have been a lot of bombardment.

This is probably a sign that Russia is adopting what for it is a more sensible strategy - to move slowly and pulverize everything in their path with artillery.

However, for that to work they need to protect their supply lines. If they can't do that then they they are as vulnerable as they were near Kyiv.

Yes, and their supply lines round Izyum do not look at all ideal. This is particularly a problem for rocket artillery, which, due to the much less efficient use of propellant compared to gun artillery, places a much bigger burdern on logistics than guns/howitzers/mortars do.

Slow bombardments are also of questionable effectiveness against anyone who knows how to dig in - it's a tactic a little reminiscent of WWI, and Ukraine has a lot of soldiers, both regular and reservist, with experience of trench warfare.

ETA: Which is not to say it definitely won't work, just that it has flaws as an approach. Though they don't (as of posting, usual caveats re information) seem to have advanced much overall, the bastards do appear to be advancing in Kreminna

[EACLucifer]

Pentagon Press Secretary re Ukraine - "have received additional aircraft and the aircraft parts to help them get more more aircraft in the air"

I'm going to back off on reporting every nation's decision to send arms and instead suggest those interested refer to this list.

Reportedly US helped with shipment of spare parts, but didn't send whole airframes, so it's not the Mi-17s originally intended for Afghanistan. Could be the long debated eastern European MiGs. Even if they take a while to get there, they do allow Ukraine to be less cautious about attrition.

[EACLucifer]

Between western aid, captures by Ukraine and Russian losses, Ukraine apparently has more tanks within Ukraine than Russia does at this point.

In other news two Russian helicopters were shot down in quick succession, at least one appears to have been downed by an Igla MANPADS

And the world is finally sending meaningful amounts of kit - talk of the Dutch sending artillery, possibly even the extremely capable PzH2000 SPG, which would also mean it being sent with German consent - Canada also sending heavy artillery, America sending dozens of howitzers and huge quantities of shells. I think people have finally realised that sending advanced arms does not trigger WWIII, and once some countries have moved, others have followed. I've seen rumours France might be quietly sending stuff, and the Kyiv Independent reported Charles Michel saying the EU would send heavy weapons, but wouldn't announce much about it.

There's a legitimate debate about how much to publicise transfers. It is good for Ukrainian morale to know help is coming, and it creates pressure on politicians if other countries have sent arms, and it creates a permission structure for other countries to join in. On the other hand, keeping the Russians guessing and giving them some very nasty surprises is also a valid approach.