Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:05 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:34 pm
There were several dozen aircraft parked there this morning. That’s a big chunk of their operational airframes gone. They are meant to have quite a lot more (low hundreds), but how many of those are actually flyable and have not been stripped for copper like their tanks?
Image

The destroyed Su-24 looks like one from the row on the bottom left. Three Su-24s there, and three rather more expensive Su-30 variants.

There's also four more Su-30s in revetments, four more Su-24s in revetments and two more in the open in the north of the picture, and down to the east, there's three more Su-30s.

The revetments may have protected the craft from blast, but it depends on the scale of the blast, and they'd have been little protection from thrown debris.

So about $195 million in the immediate vicinity of the ruined Sukhoi, $365 million in the open, and $665 million in total.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:31 am

it looks well-prepared

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... tBArYbCnKA
A note, last month Ukrainian forces targeted a highly capable surveillance radar in the area, one that was positioned well to pick up on any potential SRBM launches.
and possibly some of the ship attacks last month too

slowly degrading their air defence cover of the region before the airfield, all of which could just have been normal targets, but also could have enabled this strike. Which is going to have a big impact in what it forces Russia to do to mitigate against this.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:13 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:17 pm
It's also possible that the USA has done what we all wanted, and sent a surprise delivery of MGM-140 ATACMS
And if they haven't, then now Ukraine has shown it can use longer range weapons anyway (assuming thats what they are rather than sabotage) - why not supply MGM-140's? That line will have already been crossed in terms of long strike capability - so who cares on the details of the ordinance that is doing it?

What with HARM making it hard for Russian radar to operate, and the destruction of Russian planes here (as well as munitions)... I wonder if we are going to get to a point where Ukraine can achieve air supremacy?

That's certainly the Western way of conducting warfare - so it wouldn't be totally surprising if that's where the US/NATO planners are trying to get Ukraine to. Russian ground forces are already outranged by the modern artillery supplied to Ukraine, if Ukraine could also dominate the air then they would significantly increase their ability to strike Russian positions.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:11 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:05 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:34 pm
There were several dozen aircraft parked there this morning. That’s a big chunk of their operational airframes gone. They are meant to have quite a lot more (low hundreds), but how many of those are actually flyable and have not been stripped for copper like their tanks?
Image

The destroyed Su-24 looks like one from the row on the bottom left. Three Su-24s there, and three rather more expensive Su-30 variants.

There's also four more Su-30s in revetments, four more Su-24s in revetments and two more in the open in the north of the picture, and down to the east, there's three more Su-30s.

The revetments may have protected the craft from blast, but it depends on the scale of the blast, and they'd have been little protection from thrown debris.

So about $195 million in the immediate vicinity of the ruined Sukhoi, $365 million in the open, and $665 million in total.
Ukrainian airforce claims nine Russian planes destroyed.
https://twitter.com/christopherjm/statu ... ARILKkElzg

As you write the others may well have been damaged by falling debris.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:03 am

BBC news reporting it was a Ukrainian SF operation... rather than longer range munitions.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:47 am

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:03 am
BBC news reporting it was a Ukrainian SF operation... rather than longer range munitions.
That seems plausible but what source were they reporting said so?

I can't see that claim on their website. Most recent reference I found was 5 hours old and a Ukrainian presidential aide denied any involvement.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:59 am

Martin Y wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:47 am
TopBadger wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:03 am
BBC news reporting it was a Ukrainian SF operation... rather than longer range munitions.
That seems plausible but what source were they reporting said so?

I can't see that claim on their website. Most recent reference I found was 5 hours old and a Ukrainian presidential aide denied any involvement.
Apologies... was Sky... not the beeb
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news ... t-12541713
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 1:46 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:11 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:05 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:34 pm
There were several dozen aircraft parked there this morning. That’s a big chunk of their operational airframes gone. They are meant to have quite a lot more (low hundreds), but how many of those are actually flyable and have not been stripped for copper like their tanks?
Image

The destroyed Su-24 looks like one from the row on the bottom left. Three Su-24s there, and three rather more expensive Su-30 variants.

There's also four more Su-30s in revetments, four more Su-24s in revetments and two more in the open in the north of the picture, and down to the east, there's three more Su-30s.

The revetments may have protected the craft from blast, but it depends on the scale of the blast, and they'd have been little protection from thrown debris.

So about $195 million in the immediate vicinity of the ruined Sukhoi, $365 million in the open, and $665 million in total.
Ukrainian airforce claims nine Russian planes destroyed.
https://twitter.com/christopherjm/statu ... ARILKkElzg

As you write the others may well have been damaged by falling debris.
After the big strike on Chornobaivka (Kherson airport), which was at least the second strike, but the first properly observed one by satellite, there were a lot of helicopters clearly destroyed. A lot of helicopters were also evacuated, leaving some behind not visibly damaged, but not evacuated. At the time, I suspected these were damaged to the point of being unsafe to fly, and later footage emerged of them being towed away.

Reportedly Russia evacuated aircraft from Novofederovka yesterday. One can infer it is likely that those aircraft remaining, even if not visibly damage, are unlikely to be fit to fly right now, though they may only need minor repair, or inspection to confirm their condition. However, aircraft are fragile things, and damage that could utterly ruin a jet could well not show up on satellite.

Nine certainly seems plausible, and I'd assume it contains the six lined up where the wrecked Su-24 was seen, so at least three of the more advanced and expensive Su-30 variants among the wrecks.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:15 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:03 am
BBC news reporting it was a Ukrainian SF operation... rather than longer range munitions.
I don't think we can rule anything out, but we should also assume Ukraine won't announce what previously unknown capabilities they had, or for that matter announce with any certainty that it wasn't a new capability.

Meanwhile, there's reports of hits in Chongar, near the Kherson-Crimea border. Crimea is just barely connected to the rest of Ukraine, with several very narrow communications corridors which in places rely on bridges. Whatever Ukraine's using for longer range attacks (there was also Novooleksiivka, so not just Novofederovka), it puts communications across the Perekop Isthmus and the other routes from Crimea to Kherson in danger.

There were also hits on the bridge at Nova Kakhovka. Though not destroyed, there is damage. The bridge was hit at a point the approach road curves round before it reaches the dam, so it's a bit further from the dam and easier to hit. Another few hits there could potentially drop the entire span.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:28 pm

Anyway - so much for 'judgement day instantly awaiting" Ukraine if it attacked Crimea... unless ex-President Dmitry Medvedev has a very different definition of "instant" and/or "judgement day".

On the basis that it was an SF attack deep behind enemy lines... I wouldn't blame Ukraine for doing this to demonstrate to its allies that the Russian's do not have a catastrophic response up their sleeves to bring out against longer range attacks deeper into Russian held territory - and so the US and co may as well start supplying the longer range stuff that can really help to push the Russians back and out of Ukraine.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:48 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:28 pm
Anyway - so much for 'judgement day instantly awaiting" Ukraine if it attacked Crimea... unless ex-President Dmitry Medvedev has a very different definition of "instant" and/or "judgement day".

On the basis that it was an SF attack deep behind enemy lines... I wouldn't blame Ukraine for doing this to demonstrate to its allies that the Russian's do not have a catastrophic response up their sleeves to bring out against longer range attacks deeper into Russian held territory - and so the US and co may as well start supplying the longer range stuff that can really help to push the Russians back and out of Ukraine.
There are lots of reasons for Ukraine to do this.

Russia has to spread its forces out to protect far more, not just the front line.

All those holidaying in the Crimea are going to be suspicious of the official story, and that no aircraft were damaged. It further adds to the distrust of the regime and will get to the frontline troops too

I hope the Il-76 failed to escape
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 5:06 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:48 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:28 pm
Anyway - so much for 'judgement day instantly awaiting" Ukraine if it attacked Crimea... unless ex-President Dmitry Medvedev has a very different definition of "instant" and/or "judgement day".

On the basis that it was an SF attack deep behind enemy lines... I wouldn't blame Ukraine for doing this to demonstrate to its allies that the Russian's do not have a catastrophic response up their sleeves to bring out against longer range attacks deeper into Russian held territory - and so the US and co may as well start supplying the longer range stuff that can really help to push the Russians back and out of Ukraine.
There are lots of reasons for Ukraine to do this.

Russia has to spread its forces out to protect far more, not just the front line.

All those holidaying in the Crimea are going to be suspicious of the official story, and that no aircraft were damaged. It further adds to the distrust of the regime and will get to the frontline troops too

I hope the Il-76 failed to escape
The Russian media can downplay it, but thousands of people fleeing their holidays after seeing the fireballs in the distance are going to talk.

I also hope the Il-76 failed to escape. I'd be very curious to see satellite imagery post-blasts.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:27 pm

A Ukrainian Su-24 has been seen operating with semi-active laser guided missiles. These usually require a line of sight to the target, and may well actually be guided onto the target by the launching aircraft, as the Su-24 is equipped to do that.

This represents a much more aggressive use of airpower than we've seen before from Ukraine, except for the very first couple of days when they struck the landings at Hostomel. It is likely that the arrival of effective anti-radiation missiles allows sufficient SEAD, and the planes armament can probably outrange Russian MANPADS.

This is yet more of an argument for sending western planes. If an Su-24 can do it, so can an F15 or F16 or F18, or an A10, or even a Tornado, for that matter, if they weren't all scrapped.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:27 pm

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557 ... t1m-ymIwCQ

Satellite before and after pictures
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:50 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:27 pm
https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557 ... t1m-ymIwCQ

Satellite before and after pictures
Looks like the Sukhoi 30s in the line may have taken off or moved before in the four hours between the "before" picture and the impact., and might have thus escaped. However, all the ones in the revetments are clearly done for. That's four Sukhoi 30s.

There were three more in the bottom right. One's stil there, no wrecks, so likely two of those escaped too. If they moved in response to the attack, we can presume the remaining one is not currently safe to fly.

There were six Sukhoi 24s in the north end of the image. Four are definitely destroyed, two are still present, and I would not want to try flying in them. The three in the lineup are clearly done for. There's an Su-24 in the bottom right in the after image, not sure what's going on there. I'll be charitable and assume it's intact.

That means four Su-30s are completely destroyed and another suspect, while seven Su-24s are definitely gone and two suspect. That's on this end of the base. This wasn't the only part hit.

One would also suspect personnel losses and other materiel losses for Russian naval aviation. From the Russian perspective, it's a catastrophe. Chornobaivka come again, but somewhere they thought was safe.

Oh, and imagery Eliot Higgins posted shows that the ammunition stores were struck accurately, so whoever and whatever did it is clearly very dangerous to other Russian airbases within range.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:42 pm

Image

Big warheads were used. The planes give a clue as to the crater size.

Perhaps America was so reluctant to give ATACMS because they felt helping complete Hrim-2 was a better option?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:46 pm

Those craters very accurately destroyed the ammunition and fuel dumps.

Whatever they were caused by, and I don’t buy the special forces explanation, it had a very accurate guidance system. If it was a Ukrainian weapon it vas very likely using some US or similar technology.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:52 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:46 pm
Those craters very accurately destroyed the ammunition and fuel dumps.

Whatever they were caused by, and I don’t buy the special forces explanation, it had a very accurate guidance system. If it was a Ukrainian weapon it vas very likely using some US or similar technology.
GPS guidance could achieve that, indeed we've seen it with JDAMs and SDBs and, in this war, M31s fired from M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS. Borrowing the guidance system from any of those, or from ATACMS or the new Precision Strike Missile could lead to that sort of accuracy, and jamming wouldn't achieve much as the missile would only be in range of the jammer for moments, not long enough to affect its course.

There's further evidence of missiles here, too. Magnetic anomaly caused by missile accelerating through atmosphere. Timing is right, suggests launch from Odesa oblast.

A joint venture to complete Hrim-2 is going from an outside theory to now looking like a leading contender, though cruise missiles are also possible.

It's also worth noting that a lot of missiles have a quoted range of something like 280 to 300km. This is because of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). In practise, some cruise and short range ballistic/quasi-ballistic missiles with that sort of range can achieve more than that. Hrim-2 and Sapsan, which appear to be the same project anyway, would be in this category. It's also possible that this is also the case for Neptune.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:55 pm

How airworthy are the planes near the blasts that didn’t get destroyed outright? Being that close to an explosion of that size can’t be good for them.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:59 pm

bjn wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:55 pm
How airworthy are the planes near the blasts that didn’t get destroyed outright? Being that close to an explosion of that size can’t be good for them.
I'd assume they at minimum need a thorough inspection to work out if they were damaged, and if so how badly. Perforation from small fragments could easily put them out of use, and potentially beyond economic repair, without being visible to a satellite. Airframes are of course very lightly built, and quite delicate as a consequence. On top of that, heat/age treated aluminium alloys - ie all the aluminium used in aircraft construction can lose their hardness and strength very easily if heated too much. Proximity to a fire could distort or weaken an aircraft, too.

In short, you'd have to pay me a fortune to get in one of them, and I'd make damn certain I had a working parachute first.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:00 pm

If this was ballistic or cruise missiles, by the way, then the attack pierced the coverage of multiple S-400 batteries. What airdefence doing indeed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:36 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:00 pm
If this was ballistic or cruise missiles, by the way, then the attack pierced the coverage of multiple S-400 batteries. What airdefence doing indeed.
There had been multiple Ukrainian attacks that had been targeting air defence radars from late July ( I'll try to find links) and also some ships in the Black Sea Fleet.

These were obvious targets for the Ukrainians anyway, so wouldn't have raised suspicions, but possibly also created a gap that the Russians didn't notice, or think important.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:52 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:59 pm
bjn wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:55 pm
How airworthy are the planes near the blasts that didn’t get destroyed outright? Being that close to an explosion of that size can’t be good for them.
I'd assume they at minimum need a thorough inspection to work out if they were damaged, and if so how badly. Perforation from small fragments could easily put them out of use, and potentially beyond economic repair, without being visible to a satellite. Airframes are of course very lightly built, and quite delicate as a consequence. On top of that, heat/age treated aluminium alloys - ie all the aluminium used in aircraft construction can lose their hardness and strength very easily if heated too much. Proximity to a fire could distort or weaken an aircraft, too.

In short, you'd have to pay me a fortune to get in one of them, and I'd make damn certain I had a working parachute first.

Yes but Russian approach to the safety of its own personnel
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:59 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:36 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:00 pm
If this was ballistic or cruise missiles, by the way, then the attack pierced the coverage of multiple S-400 batteries. What airdefence doing indeed.
There had been multiple Ukrainian attacks that had been targeting air defence radars from late July ( I'll try to find links) and also some ships in the Black Sea Fleet.

These were obvious targets for the Ukrainians anyway, so wouldn't have raised suspicions, but possibly also created a gap that the Russians didn't notice, or think important.
I posted about the destruction of a "Podlet" early warning radar on July the 20th, so probably destroyed around the 19th.

With ballistic missiles, if you didn't see them going up, you don't have much time to react when they come down.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:00 pm

Anyway, I think we can all conclude we aren't looking at carelessly discarded cigarettes here. We're talking cigars, at a minimum, and big ones at that.

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