Blyatskrieg

[EACLucifer]

Most of us were expecting accelerated attrition, not armoured fists and rapid manoeuvre.

Whilst underestimation of an adversary is dangerous - I think it's the case that Russian capabilities have been consistently overestimated during this conflict.

Perhaps we should be less surprised if their defenses collapse like a flan in a cupboard.

Lets all remember that, supplies aside, the Russians simply aren't motivated to be flighting in Ukraine and appear to lack the professionalism to even look out for each other.

The surprise wasn't Russian defences collapsing. Even since the arrival of GMLRS and the procession of strikes on the Russian depots, I was expecting a collapse at some point. The surprise is how it was inflicted. The expectation was that the Ukrainians would slowly chip away at the foundations until the whole edifice collapsed, and that is largely what they are trying in Kherson. In Kharkiv, they just assembled the biggest wrecking ball they could and launched it at the Russian positions.

We've gone from analysts wondering if massed armour formations like the one observed in this tweet are even possible in the modern era to watching them smash through the Russian lines.

It shows that the Ukrainians have exceptionally good air defence in Kharkiv, and also that the Russian Ar Force lacks weapons to attack tank formations at standoff range - they have no Brimstone equivalent.

And analysts were also talking about the near impossibility of achieving operational surprise, and then this happened.

The Ukrainian breakthrough has seen them overrun Russian positions, capturing ammunition depots, significant quantities of towed artillery and even self-propelled guns. Russians units were ambushed and destroyed, apparently while retreating. Some Russian units abandoned their vehicles to be captured.

The Ukrainian attacks appear to be bypassing settlements and allowing following echelons to capture them - which was Soviet doctrine since some time around Stalin's purge - and this enables them to outpace the Russian defences. Balakliya, for example, appears to have been encircled a couple of days ago and liberated today. The Russian army is slow moving, and is faced with the issue of exterior lines vs interior for Ukraine. For example it took them a couple of weeks to redeploy to Kherson oblast to face the very heavily telegraphed Ukrainian offensive there, and that was when the bridges were intact. The speed of the Ukrainian advance is outpacing Russia's ability to reinforce their front, for the moment, and the areas attacked appear to have been largely garrisoned by a mix of Rosguardia riot police and forced conscripts from the occupied territories. That situation won't last forever, but if it can be exploited while it does last, it gives Ukraine a real advantage.

I've seen geolocated footage of Ukrainians putting a flag on a radio mast within touching distance of the Oskil. While the full extent of the Ukrainian advance is not clear, it does appear to be threatening the supply lines to Russia's Izium grouping. Ukraine's figures for the distance they've advanced (50km) and pro-Russian channels assessment of Ukrainian troops' distance from Kupiansk (about 10km) agree with each other. The liberation of Kupiansk would be a stunning victory, but even if it does not prove possible to liberate the city, getting near to it, and perhaps making contact with the Oskil further south, cuts the principle line of supply to the Izium grouping. With Ukrainian forces crossing the Siverskiy Donets near Lyman, the effective encirclement of Russia's Izium grouping is threatened.

Whether or not they are able to continue this advance - it will culminate sooner or later and it is vital the Ukrainian commanders recognise when this happens - the armed forces of Ukraine has in a few days liberated more territory than Russia took in the preceeding month, and it appears to be the single biggest advance by either side since the Russian collapse in the north back in spring.

[EACLucifer]

Looks like Ukraine might be planning a Crimea offensive, or some form of widescale attack...

Maybe but it’s classic propaganda

Also useful to make the Russians think you are considering it, so they don't move forces from Crimea to Donbas, or throw everything into Donbas.

The heavily announced Kherson offensive meant Russians moved troops to Kherson, where they are now basically stuck. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are advancing in Kharkiv, and have even re-entered Luhansk oblast.

[EACLucifer]

Norway is sending ground-launched Hellfire missile launchers. At last someone's doing this. Hellfires are available in quantity, they are accurate enough to hit point targets, and they hit hard enough to destroy what they hit. They have more range than smaller missiles like Javelins and Stugna-Ps, but are not so heavy as to be really cumbersome. The Norwegian launchers consist of a tube on a tripod for the missile, and a separate designator.

Hellfires would be particularly useful, though, for increasing the firepower of APCs like the M113. Ukraine is still short of IFVs. Though superficially similar, IFVs - Infantry Fighting Vehicles - differ from APCs - Armoured Personnel Carriers - in their firepower. IFVs are intended to drop off the troops the carry, then support them from range. Classically, this is done with an autocannon, but it could also be achieved by fitting APCs with either Hellfire launchers and designators or the VAMPIRE system, which carries four of the smaller but still very potent APKWS - a guided conversion of the Hydra-70 rocket system.

Either weapon could be fitted to the roof of an APC without significantly affecting its ability to carry troops to the battlefield, but then, as those troops engage, it would allow the APC to support them by hitting vehicles, machine gun nests, bunkers and so on.

[EACLucifer]

While I'm somewhat less than thrilled by people geolocating Ukrainian advances in realtime, it does provide confirmation that they are advancing well. I won't repeat the coordinates, but there's definitely Ukrainian troops in artillery range of the bridge over the Oskil at Kupyansk.

Hopefully, the footage geolocated was properly cleared for release.

[Woodchopper]

While I'm somewhat less than thrilled by people geolocating Ukrainian advances in realtime, it does provide confirmation that they are advancing well. I won't repeat the coordinates, but there's definitely Ukrainian troops in artillery range of the bridge over the Oskil at Kupyansk.

Hopefully, the footage geolocated was properly cleared for release.

Someone on that Twitter pointed out that while there is a lot of video coming out of the Kharkiv front, there is still little from Kherson. That could be deliberate, and the video from Kharkiv has the aim of sowing panic, both among the troops there and overwhelming the higher leadership.

[EACLucifer]

While I'm somewhat less than thrilled by people geolocating Ukrainian advances in realtime, it does provide confirmation that they are advancing well. I won't repeat the coordinates, but there's definitely Ukrainian troops in artillery range of the bridge over the Oskil at Kupyansk.

Hopefully, the footage geolocated was properly cleared for release.

Someone on that Twitter pointed out that while there is a lot of video coming out of the Kharkiv front, there is still little from Kherson. That could be deliberate, and the video from Kharkiv has the aim of sowing panic, both among the troops there and overwhelming the higher leadership.

That seems like a reasonable hypothesis. It looks like there is progress in Kherson, just much slower than Kharkiv. That's quite likely because Kherson has extremely extensive Russian fortified positions and the areas assaulted in Kharkiv do not. Perhaps the distance from the front to their important supply nodes gave them the false sense of security in Kharkiv oblast? It seems the Ukrainians might be directly threatening the vital logistics arteries that run through Kupyansk, and some Russian sources place Ukrainian troops more or less at the banks of the Oskil. Meanwhile, in Kherson, Chornobaivka, though heavily bombarded of course, has been turned into a Russian fortress that would be very difficult to reduce directly. I assume the Ukrainians intend to bypass and cut it off, though given a lot of the defences there are dug in vehicles, weapons like Brimstone and SMArt155 could be effective at clearing it up without assault.

[Woodchopper]

Suppress the air defences and dug in vehicles can be picked off by Byraktars and drone corrected conventional artillery.

[EACLucifer]

There's photos emerging of the Ukrainian flag flying again in Shevchenkove. While not the furthest point of the advance, it was bypassed earlier in the offensive, and it appears the local garrison has either given up or now been defeated by followup echelons.

For the first time since the opening days of the war we're seeing blitzkrieg/deep battle, and this time, it does appear to be being conducted competently. Russian milbloggers and analysts are obsessing over the defence of Kupyansk now, and with good reason; it occupies a role similar to that Amiens did in the northern sector of the western front in WWI. If the Russians do lose Kupyansk - or it comes under effective fire control from tube artillery* - then there's only a few options for supplying Izium. There's only a few bridges over the Oskil river south of Kupyansk. For most of the distance between Kupyansk and the Seversky Donets, the Oskil River is a wide reservoir. There's crossings at Sen'kove and Borova, but these would both already be in range of GMLRS, especially as there's footage of at least one M270 following the advance quite closely. South of the reservoir section of the Oskil, there's the possibility of heading east, but there's not much in the way of roads there, and the ones that do exist head along the Seversky Donets past Lyman and towards Severodonetsk. It is unlikely to be coincidence that the Ukrainian forces have been crossing the Seversky Donets in the vicinity of Lyman lately, and even if they cannot maintain a toehold north of the river, it's either a cross country route, or it runs parallel to a river where the Ukrainians hold the other bank.

So if - and if is the most important word here - if Kupyansk can be liberated or placed under meaningful fire control, I don't think the Russian grouping round Izium will be tenable at all, and they will likely have to leave heavy kit behind if they do retreat.


*The furthest advance I've seen confirmed not only does this, but it potentially brings mortars into play

[lpm]

Map of the Izyum pocket.

I guess fundamental geography doesn't change, even if the Oskil is now the reservoir for much of this.

[EACLucifer]

Map of the Izyum pocket.

I guess fundamental geography doesn't change, even if the Oskil is now the reservoir for much of this.

Fundamental geography indeed does not change. For example, everyone is familiar with the dogged defence of Thermopylae in Greece, but did you know that there was a battle there over two thousand four hundred years before that, between the Persians and a Spartan-led alliance of Greeks?

While we're going with maps with arrows on them, this is Rybar's take. This is a pro-Russian source I don't consider remotely trustworthy and I'm sharing it for discussion as it illustrates a plausible scenario that could happen, or even have happened, but do not treat it as anything more than that!



Any Ukrainian advance to the Oskil has almost as much effect on Russian lines of supply to Izium as taking Kupyansk. The Institute for the Study of War is talking about Kupyansk falling to Ukrainian forces within the next few days, and it is certainly a plausible possibility.

Meanwhile Russian sources are panicking about a rupture of the line in southern right-bank Kherson, but I can't nail down anything solid either way on this one.

[EACLucifer]

A variety of sources place the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Sen'kove, on the banks of the Oskil reservoir. That would cut the primary Izium supply lines.

[EACLucifer]

Outskirts of Kupyansk



Via ELINT news

[jimbob]

Outskirts of Kupyansk



Via ELINT news

War translated has an interesting take by the Russian milbloggers

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 5qk0HR3PzQ

Dmitri
@wartranslated
·
6m
Getting heated.

Russian channel: "No Ukrainian groups entered Kupyansk".

A channel with 450k responds: "Stop lying you f*cking c*nts. What is happening is all due to dump lying. In reports, motherf*cking slides and other sh*t, r*tards"

[EACLucifer]

Nasty dilemna for the Russians; do they blow the bridges over the Oskil or not?

Doing so greatly improves their chances of stabilising the front line along the Oskil River.

However, doing so also seals the fate of all of their garrison at Izium's lines of supply, barring the rather difficult southern routes cross country to the east.

[Woodchopper]

Nasty dilemna for the Russians; do they blow the bridges over the Oskil or not?

Doing so greatly improves their chances of stabilising the front line along the Oskil River.

However, doing so also seals the fate of all of their garrison at Izium's lines of supply, barring the rather difficult southern routes cross country to the east.

Yes, indeed. And a risk to Russia isn't just from a full scale offensive across the river. Russian armed forces have also been vulnerable to raids conducted by highly mobile Ukrainian units.

[lpm]

Reports that Ukraine forces are in Oskil.

Not at Oskil, the river. In Oskil, the place.

It's the village at the southern end of the reservoir, at the dam. A few miles from Izyum.

[bjn]

Reports that Ukraine forces are in Oskil.

Not at Oskil, the river. In Oskil, the place.

It's the village at the southern end of the reservoir, at the dam. A few miles from Izyum.

That's about 8km directly WSW from the centre of Izyum and cuts one of the main roads into it.

ETA: ie: if true, Izyum is becoming an exposed salient and close to being encircled.

[lpm]

Coming in at Izyum from the south as well, allegedly.

[lpm]

Claims that Ukraine is attacking Lyman from the south, and Russians are fleeing east from there.

[Woodchopper]

I'm trying not to lap up every rumor circulating around Telegram, but the main challenge in establishing a clear picture of the situation in Kharkiv appears to be that Russian lines are collapsing faster than Ukraine can even advance and clear liberated areas. Astonishing.

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/stat ... 4228748289

[jimbob]

What sources do you all use?

I have a small selection of tweeters (I think most on my list here is generally reliable)

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1524102365036658690 and liveuamap.com

[FlammableFlower]

Ukrainian Special Arborial Forces

[EACLucifer]

Ukrainian Special Arborial Forces

Quick heads up that this video does potentially include people being shot.

[EACLucifer]

Reports that Ukraine forces are in Oskil.

Not at Oskil, the river. In Oskil, the place.

It's the village at the southern end of the reservoir, at the dam. A few miles from Izyum.

If that's the case, and they've arrived as we expect from the north, then the Russians only have one way out left; the railway bridge over the Oskil river a little north of its confluence with the Seversky Donets.

We can expect Ukrainian forces to try and cut that route as quickly as possible. Indeed I don't actually know if that bridge is still standing, and if it is, it might be hard to get vehicles across. The bridge across the Oskil in Kupyansk seems to be done for, though it might still be possible to cross on foot. We might be looking at two potential encirclements here, and with that, many prisoners of war and much captured equipment.

They could also try to ford the Oskil River, swim it, or cross it in amphibious vehicles, but they have their own risks*. Notably we've already seen BMP-1s and BMP-2s abandoned in water. Just because something is nominally amphibious doesn't mean it is easy to use in that role, that the troops operating it know how to use it in an amphibious role, or that it can cross a river anywhere - even the best amphibious vehicles need suitable points to enter and exit the water.


*And, of course, the ever present risk of attack by shoals of ravenous schweinokaras

[EACLucifer]

One other thing; in an article by General Zaluzhny, it's confirmed in passing that the much debated strikes on the airbase in Crimea were done with missiles. I haven't had a chance to read the article yet, as everything is hectic right now, but it has received quite a lot of praise from various observers.

In probably related news, M142 HIMARS have been observed in Ukraine with tarpaulins and panels covering up what sort of pod they have loaded (the front end doesn't need covering, as the ATACMS pod has six dummy tube covers on the front. On an M270, that would be enough to hide what was in the pod, but M142s are rather more skeletal in design).