Blyatskrieg

[Grumble]

Looks like the Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ took at least two missles, possibly Stormshadows/SCALPS. Apparently the Admiral of the fleet is missing.

Smoking is dangerous

[Grumble]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/170 ... 55539?s=20

Look, no civilian casualties

[FlammableFlower]

So, Russia has released a video of Sokolov to say he's not actually dead...

[Grumble]

So, Russia has released a video of Sokolov to say he's not actually dead...

Yeah, shame that. Hopefully Ukraine get another chance

[dyqik]

So, Russia has released a video of Sokolov to say he's not actually dead...

Yeah, shame that. Hopefully Ukraine get another chance

Paranoia makes me want to ask questions about deep fakes and prerecorded video.

[FlammableFlower]

I haven't yet had chance to watch the video - just seen a still taken from it, which for all purposes looks like it could be a posthumous appearance. I don't know if Sokolov is actually seen moving or speaking. From Russia's previous form on claims, it wouldn't surprise me if it was some doctored production.

That's really an aside to the damage Ukraine did, both in terms of other officers and how and where it struck.

[Martin Y]

Could equally well be Russia trolling with deliberately weak could-easily-be-fake evidence that he survived, to lure the Ukrainians into insisting he's really dead before they reveal him safe and sound.

Or he's dead.

I'm still tending to its being the latter but obvs that's just my guess.

[bjn]

Reports today that Tokmak is being evacuated by non combatants.

[EACLucifer]

Reports today that Tokmak is being evacuated by non combatants.

Speaking of evacuation, the Black Sea Fleet seem to have buggered off to Novorossiysk; sadly, squeamishness about targeting Russian territory makes it a safe place for them to hide, but it keeps them off Odesa for the time being.

[TopBadger]

Pretty impressive for a country without a navy to speak of can push the black sea fleet out of sevastopol. And indicative that the Russians cant defend Crimea.

[bjn]

The Ukranians have control of the oil rigs between Odessa and Crimea, they are using them to host air defence systems and radar, which help to exclude Russian jets from that area. They are now using them as forward areas to launch sea borne raids against Crimea. Last night a bunch of jet skis and RIBs landed some UKR commandos on the Crimean shore, raised havoc and retreated. Unfortunatly leaving one of their guys behind.

Apparently they timed the raid to co-incide with missle and drone strikes. The Russians won't fly during such strikes as their S-400s have shot down their own jets in the past, so the raid wasn't worried about getting attacked from the air.

[Woodchopper]

Reports today that Tokmak is being evacuated by non combatants.

sadly, squeamishness about targeting Russian territory makes it a safe place for them to hide

Probably out of range for a Storm Shadow though? I’m thinking in practice as the launch would need to be away from Russian air defence and the missile would probably need to take a circuitous route to get there.

[EACLucifer]

Reports of Russia launching an offensive in the east, nothing solid so far.

Also, amidst all the other horror, Idlib is being bombarded by Assadist/Russian forces.

[EACLucifer]

Reports of Russia launching an offensive in the east, nothing solid so far.

So far not really any sign of territorial changes, but a lot of new images of destroyed Russian armoured vehicles.

[Woodchopper]

Reports of Russia launching an offensive in the east, nothing solid so far.

So far not really any sign of territorial changes, but a lot of new images of destroyed Russian armoured vehicles.

Lots and lots of destroyed armour. At least in this phase of the war it looks like large scale armored attacks by either side will just get wiped out. Ukraine seems to have the right tactics in relying upon infantry supported by artillery to clear mines and conduct small scale attacks. But progress is inevitably slow.

Armour may though be useful in the future if the opponent can be attritted enough or the infantry can achieve a breakthrough.

[Woodchopper]

ATACMS has entered the chat

[Woodchopper]

Image of sub-munition used against Berdyansk airfield here: https://x.com/COUPSURE/status/1714243723989496311?s=20

War Translated suggests that Russian losses at the airfield were:

- 9 various destroyed helicopters
- Special purpose vehicles
- Air-defence system
- Ammo cache
- Damaged strip

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1714 ... 09621?s=20

[ETA also reports of an attack on an airfield in Luhansk.]

If correct it looks like a very bad day for Russian aviation. More importantly, if Russian helicopters have to be based out of ATACMS range they'll need to fly a long way back and forth to the front line.

[Woodchopper]

No doubt from these images:* https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/17 ... 28149?s=20

Has MGM-140A written on the side. Might as well have Made in America as well.

*Assuming they were taken in Russia.

[FlammableFlower]

Wikipedia page for ATACMS:

Service history
In service 1991–present[1]
Used by
United States
South Korea
Romania
Greece
Turkey
Poland
Ukraine

Wars
Persian Gulf War
War in Afghanistan
Iraq War
Russo-Ukrainian War

[Woodchopper]

Image of sub-munition used against Berdyansk airfield here: https://x.com/COUPSURE/status/1714243723989496311?s=20

War Translated suggests that Russian losses at the airfield were:

- 9 various destroyed helicopters
- Special purpose vehicles
- Air-defence system
- Ammo cache
- Damaged strip

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1714 ... 09621?s=20

[ETA also reports of an attack on an airfield in Luhansk.]

If correct it looks like a very bad day for Russian aviation. More importantly, if Russian helicopters have to be based out of ATACMS range they'll need to fly a long way back and forth to the front line.

The nine destroyed helicopters accords with satellite imagery. Also looks like four were damaged.
https://bsky.app/profile/thebaseleg.bsk ... 2ubi2cj32i

[EACLucifer]

Image of sub-munition used against Berdyansk airfield here: https://x.com/COUPSURE/status/1714243723989496311?s=20

War Translated suggests that Russian losses at the airfield were:

- 9 various destroyed helicopters
- Special purpose vehicles
- Air-defence system
- Ammo cache
- Damaged strip

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1714 ... 09621?s=20

[ETA also reports of an attack on an airfield in Luhansk.]

If correct it looks like a very bad day for Russian aviation. More importantly, if Russian helicopters have to be based out of ATACMS range they'll need to fly a long way back and forth to the front line.

The nine destroyed helicopters accords with satellite imagery. Also looks like four were damaged.
https://bsky.app/profile/thebaseleg.bsk ... 2ubi2cj32i

And five more at Luhansk airfield.

I'd mentioned Berdyansk airfield before as a prime target for ATACMS, glad it got dealt with. Losing five Ka-52s will particularly hurt as their numbers were already starting to dwindle.

[TimW]

And five more at Luhansk airfield.

I'd mentioned Berdyansk airfield before as a prime target for ATACMS, glad it got dealt with. Losing five Ka-52s will particularly hurt as their numbers were already starting to dwindle.

Cheers.
Thread for non-Xitters:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1714 ... 50817.html

[Woodchopper]

Geoconfirmed puts the total helicopter destroyed or damaged at 21!
https://x.com/geoconfirmed/status/17151 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[EACLucifer]

Geoconfirmed puts the total helicopter destroyed or damaged at 21!
https://x.com/geoconfirmed/status/17151 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

When the Ukrainians shelled Chornobaivka with conventional MLRS for the second time, the Russians evacuated a number of helicopters. Left behind were a number of airframes about which nothing could be deduced by satellite, and a number of blazing wrecks. Those wrecks were duly counted up and added to the Oryx list, while the other helicopters left behind were not.

Some time later, when the Ukrainians first began to push a little towards Kherson, those apparently intact helicopters were evacuated - by towing them through Kherson by road.

The principle inflicter of damage of the M74 cluster bomblet - of which 950 are carried by the early M39 ATACMS missile - is not fire, but fragmentation and the fragments go a lot further than people think. If a helicopter is surrounded by the scars of impacting bomblets, chances are it looks like a Swiss cheese up close.

[Woodchopper]

Geoconfirmed puts the total helicopter destroyed or damaged at 21!
https://x.com/geoconfirmed/status/17151 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

When the Ukrainians shelled Chornobaivka with conventional MLRS for the second time, the Russians evacuated a number of helicopters. Left behind were a number of airframes about which nothing could be deduced by satellite, and a number of blazing wrecks. Those wrecks were duly counted up and added to the Oryx list, while the other helicopters left behind were not.

Some time later, when the Ukrainians first began to push a little towards Kherson, those apparently intact helicopters were evacuated - by towing them through Kherson by road.

The principle inflicter of damage of the M74 cluster bomblet - of which 950 are carried by the early M39 ATACMS missile - is not fire, but fragmentation and the fragments go a lot further than people think. If a helicopter is surrounded by the scars of impacting bomblets, chances are it looks like a Swiss cheese up close.

Yes, certainly, and in general helicopters are much more vulnerable than fixed wing aircraft.

Russia is going to have to either move its helicopters out of ATACMS range or disperse them. Both will hamper their operational effectiveness.