EACLucifer wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:11 am
So we've gone from two road carriageways and one rail bridge to one road carriageway, with the rail bridge out of action for now, but probably not forever.
It's going to cause panic and shortages, but it might not have as big an effect on supplies long term as we hoped.
Unless, of course, the strike can be repeated. It it is Hrim-2, then ballistic missiles are desperately hard to intercept.
Sure. But from a broader perspective:
- Ukraine has home advantage
- Ukraine has more troops
- Ukraine has far better trained troops
- Ukraine has won the morale war
- Ukraine has much higher quality of equipment
- Ukraine has short supply lines
The outcome is inevitable and it's just about how Ukraine can prosecute the endgame most efficiently. Worsening Russia's already problematic supply situation isn't key to the endgame, whereas panic and shortages might be. Russian leadership excluding Putin will want to exit the war with Crimea still securely in possession. Shaking that confidence in holding Crimea is key to forcing them to act now, rather than waiting till Crimea is more and more under stress.
An insecure bridge is more a political problem for Putin than a supply problem. If they can't trust the bridge, they can't be confident about the security of Crimea, so they can't allow Putin to continue his reckless stupidity.