Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:11 pm

Reportedly Russia now trying to cut out depots entirely and take stuff straight to frontline units from the railheads.

There's a reason armies generally don't do this. It requires extraordinary levels of organisation, and tracking of cargoes. Russia is not set up to do this, and still generally loads and unloads cargoes manually, meaning automatic tracking of what's going where is difficult. Unless done perfectly, units will run low on shells. In addition, artillery doesn't just need to be concentrated in space to work well, it needs to be concentrated in time. A system of moving shells straight from the railheads to the batteries is unlikely to meet the requirements of a battery firing rapidly, which means they will either suffer substantial losses in effectiveness, or they will need to pre-stage ammunition with the batteries. That recreates the problems with the depots, and while more smaller depots means each hit consumes a smaller proportion of the overall ammunition, most Russian artillery is shorter ranged than the artillery Ukraine has received from the west. Avoiding the loss of big depots to HIMARS by moving the ammunition into the range of gun artillery is not the cleverest idea.

The problem Russia faces is that any effective way to supply their batteries with enormous amounts of shells is either very vulnerable to HIMARS and M270, or requires vastly better logistics organisation and truck capacity than they have.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:10 pm

DefMon3 produced a map showing just how far the Russian military will have to move their depots to get out of range of the M31A1 guided rockets fired from M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS. Note that I think he's used 70km for the range, but one observed shot against a target in Melitopol was 82km, and some estimates place range at 90km or even more, though it will depend on conditions.

Image

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pm

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA

@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
Interesting
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:23 am

jimbob wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pm
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA

@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
Interesting
There's a lot of chatter about ATACMS right now, including comments from Reznikov that suggest that he at least thinks there's a realistic chance of getting it.

In the meantime, ammo depots have gone up in occupied Kadiivka and occupied Nova Kakhova overnight, and something went up in Kursk Oblast, some distance from the Ukrainian border, with the latter attack more likely to be a Tochka-U or one of the Tu-143 drone based improvised cruise missiles.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:52 am

jimbob wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pm
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA

@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
Interesting
It’s closer to the Kerch bridge. Could be to move air defence assets there to protect it.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:00 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:52 am
jimbob wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pm
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA

@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
Interesting
It’s closer to the Kerch bridge. Could be to move air defence assets there to protect it.
Also possible. And that moves them away from western Crimea, too. While a lot of people - me included - have emphasised ATACMS as a way to attack the Kerch bridge, it's utility goes far beyond that. Occupied Crimea is used as a base for a lot of Russian aviation, for example. Also, if the Black Sea Fleet is in Novorossiysk, it makes it harder for them to interdict grain traffic and adds substantial sailing time to missile operations against Ukraine's south coast.

In other news, Russian air defences appear to have schwacked one of their own Su-34 bombers over occupied eastern Ukraine. Perhaps they are getting jumpy after the apparently successful Ukrainian attack on Kursk oblast?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:50 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:52 am
jimbob wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:17 pm
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548 ... m1YO3gUZbA

@DefMon3
Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source https://t.me/insiderUKR/36975
Interesting
It’s closer to the Kerch bridge. Could be to move air defence assets there to protect it.
Or it could be nothing. Looks like there's a number of key ships still in Sevastopol.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:46 pm

Jet going down reportedly over Nova Kakhovka

Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources are claiming this as a Russian Sukhoi-35. Ukrainians are claiming their air defences got it (plausible in the area) and pro-Russian accounts are claiming Russians got it in an act of friendly fire (also plausible)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:39 pm

Wagner Group on HIMARS
Like Scout said in one of the latest broadcasts – “The bulk of our problems is due to us f*cking lying to ourselves!”
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:24 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:39 pm
Wagner Group on HIMARS
Like Scout said in one of the latest broadcasts – “The bulk of our problems is due to us f*cking lying to ourselves!”
Speaking of HIMARS, yesterday M31 rocket strikes took out a Repellant-1 electronic warfare system right next to the dam at Nova Kakhovka* and an expensive, rare and capable Podlet-K1 complex consisting of radar, generator and command vehicle on the south coast of Kherson oblast.

In addition, something knocked a few holes in the deck of the Antonivsky Road Bridge - one of three crossings of the Dnipro in Russian held territory, and the Russians say it was HIMARS. This looks more like an attempt to slow down the use of the Antonivsky Road Bridge than to destroy it outright. To completely isolate the Russians north/west of the Dnipro would require the destruction of the bridge over the dam at Nova Kakhovka, which would be a devlishly tricky thing to do without endangering the dam.

Meanwhile footage has emerged that reportedly shows M270s in action. There's clearly rocket trails in the sky, and a lot of them, and they are clearly GMLRS trails as they show signs of manoevring after launch, but the launchers themselves aren't visible. The Americans, commending ZSU's successful use of HIMARS, are going to send more, as well.

With M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS both in the field now, and both firing the same rockets, I'll talk about M31 rockets rather than which launch system was used, but unless we get that M31 single-launch technical idea that I liked, M31 rockets means fired by M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS.


*M31 is a) accurate enough to reliably not hit the dam when aiming at something several dozen metres from it and b) does not have a big enough warhead to do more than cosmetic damage to the dam.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TimW » Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:24 am
rocket strikes took out a Repellant-1 electronic warfare system
Named after Putin I assume.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am

I should probably have checked my sources before posting. Overnight, they hit the Antonivsky road bridge again. Now it's closed to traffic, and there's rumours of Russian plans to set up pontoon bridges across the lower Dnipro. The Dnipro is one of the great rivers of Europe, and a pontoon bridge across its mouth is no small task to attempt.

In addition, pontoon bridges are much easier to destroy than other bridges - all that is needed is enough fragments to pierce the pontoons, and M31s have about a hundred kilograms of pre-formed fragments wrapped around forty or so kilograms of PBX. M30s would also be useful hear, as their tungsten rain could perforate a lot of pontoons at once.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:22 pm

Reportedly, throughout the occupation of Snake Island, there was one Ukrainian that stayed behind, denying the Russians total control. That brave Ukrainian is pictured here, greeting Ukrainian SOF as they return to hoist the flag of Ukraine once more on Snake Island.

Image

Hope the little bugger's alright. There were a lot of explosives launched at that rock.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:30 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am
I should probably have checked my sources before posting. Overnight, they hit the Antonivsky road bridge again. Now it's closed to traffic, and there's rumours of Russian plans to set up pontoon bridges across the lower Dnipro. The Dnipro is one of the great rivers of Europe, and a pontoon bridge across its mouth is no small task to attempt.

In addition, pontoon bridges are much easier to destroy than other bridges - all that is needed is enough fragments to pierce the pontoons, and M31s have about a hundred kilograms of pre-formed fragments wrapped around forty or so kilograms of PBX. M30s would also be useful hear, as their tungsten rain could perforate a lot of pontoons at once.
I've never really understood why the Russians set up camp on the north west bank of the Dnieper. Fundamentally this is a land grab and a natural division of Ukraine would be along the line of the river.

Capturing Kherson made sense as step one towards capturing Mykolaiv and then Odesa. Is holding it just a remnant of that failure?

Is Crimea more protected by having control of Kherson? Isn't that offset by having troops vulnerable to a sudden closing of the river crossings by Ukraine?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:58 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:30 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:50 am
I should probably have checked my sources before posting. Overnight, they hit the Antonivsky road bridge again. Now it's closed to traffic, and there's rumours of Russian plans to set up pontoon bridges across the lower Dnipro. The Dnipro is one of the great rivers of Europe, and a pontoon bridge across its mouth is no small task to attempt.

In addition, pontoon bridges are much easier to destroy than other bridges - all that is needed is enough fragments to pierce the pontoons, and M31s have about a hundred kilograms of pre-formed fragments wrapped around forty or so kilograms of PBX. M30s would also be useful hear, as their tungsten rain could perforate a lot of pontoons at once.
I've never really understood why the Russians set up camp on the north west bank of the Dnieper. Fundamentally this is a land grab and a natural division of Ukraine would be along the line of the river.

Capturing Kherson made sense as step one towards capturing Mykolaiv and then Odesa. Is holding it just a remnant of that failure?

Is Crimea more protected by having control of Kherson? Isn't that offset by having troops vulnerable to a sudden closing of the river crossings by Ukraine?

Because the high command hasn't yet stopped believing their own propaganda?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:13 am

jimbob wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:58 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:30 pm
Capturing Kherson made sense as step one towards capturing Mykolaiv and then Odesa. Is holding it just a remnant of that failure?

Is Crimea more protected by having control of Kherson? Isn't that offset by having troops vulnerable to a sudden closing of the river crossings by Ukraine?

Because the high command hasn't yet stopped believing their own propaganda?
Appears to be the right answer. They are still acting as if capturing Odesa is on the cards.

And LPM, you are right about the vulnerability of Russian troops on the Right Bank of the Dnipro. While knocking out the crossing at Nova Kakhovka is fraught with risk due to the presence of the dam, there's a lock to allow navigation on the Dnipro next to that dam, and no such risks with blowing that bridge. Though it would be easier to repair, all it needs to do is stop trucks going in quantity, and given the distances involved, repeated hits with M31s would be viable.

Meanwhile, there's reports of Russians sent to the front with a week of training, and call intercepts talking about troops having two days of training on artillery.

Suddenly, the condensed training course on Salisbury plain for Ukrainians looks a lot less rushed.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:18 pm

Update on the Antonivsky Bridge. Looks like 155mm shells, not HIMARS's M31 rockets. While some are downplaying the effect of the damage, I think it's going to be difficult to move heavy trucks and tanks across. As far as I can tell, the hits haven't just knocked holes in a roadway laid on top of structural elements, but the horizontal web of what is, in effect, a bunch of reinforced concrete T-sections.

And it's easily repeatable. And if Ukraine want to inflict more damage, they could either use M31 rockets, which hit concrete harder than 155mm shells do, or they could bring up a 2S7 Pion, which fires shells approximately twice as big as 155mm shells.

The question right now is how hard do Ukraine want to hit the bridge? Do they want to create a nuisance and send a message, or do they want to knock out a bridge they might one day want to use themselves. And are they going to go for the railway bridge just to the east as well?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Allo V Psycho » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:04 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:18 pm
Update on the Antonivsky Bridge. Looks like 155mm shells, not HIMARS's M31 rockets. While some are downplaying the effect of the damage, I think it's going to be difficult to move heavy trucks and tanks across. As far as I can tell, the hits haven't just knocked holes in a roadway laid on top of structural elements, but the horizontal web of what is, in effect, a bunch of reinforced concrete T-sections.

And it's easily repeatable. And if Ukraine want to inflict more damage, they could either use M31 rockets, which hit concrete harder than 155mm shells do, or they could bring up a 2S7 Pion, which fires shells approximately twice as big as 155mm shells.

The question right now is how hard do Ukraine want to hit the bridge? Do they want to create a nuisance and send a message, or do they want to knock out a bridge they might one day want to use themselves. And are they going to go for the railway bridge just to the east as well?
Thanks for all your detailed and insightful comments on the war and its technology, EACL, of which this is just one example. I've come to rely on them as my starting point in reviewing the war each day.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by headshot » Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:35 am

Allo V Psycho wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:04 am

Thanks for all your detailed and insightful comments on the war and its technology, EACL, of which this is just one example. I've come to rely on them as my starting point in reviewing the war each day.
+1 - it really is an excellent resource for those of use without that knowledge.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:09 am

Yup
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:28 pm

Thanks everyone.

Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:43 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:28 pm
Thanks everyone.

Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.
Looks implausible

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550 ... B3VBCLd2EQ
Def Mon
@DefMon3

This is how I think the rumor got started.
1. I reported V. being close to being encircled.
2. A few hours later
@Kartinamaslom5
wrote something similar. I asked, he had no other source than looking at the map making coming to the same conclusion as i did.

I'm pretty sure I started following Def Mon as a result of some of your posts here.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:04 pm

meanwhile the NASA FIRMS data looks interesting

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z

lots of fires now in the occupied South
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:08 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:43 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:28 pm
Thanks everyone.

Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.
Looks implausible

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550 ... B3VBCLd2EQ
Def Mon
@DefMon3

This is how I think the rumor got started.
1. I reported V. being close to being encircled.
2. A few hours later
@Kartinamaslom5
wrote something similar. I asked, he had no other source than looking at the map making coming to the same conclusion as i did.

I'm pretty sure I started following Def Mon as a result of some of your posts here.
He's a good follow. I suspect he's right here, but would add he doesn't think it's impossible, just not really supported by anything and shelling evidence points to a frontline through the village instead. The key point is for this to be the case, things would have had to have moved pretty fast, and we have nothing but rumour and the fact that Ukrainians have been pushing in this area and Vysokopillya is a bit of a salient, and thus vulnerable to envelopment.

My current take home is that encirclement isn't likely, but the possibility the position might be abandoned due to threat of encirclement (as happened at Malaya Rohan, Trostyanets and numerous places north of Kyiv) shouldn't be ruled out.

Regardless of encirclement status, the claims that two thousand Russians are involved are very dubious. There's no way there's two thousand of the f.ckers in Vysokopillya, given how few troops they have for the Kherson front in general.

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